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Page added on April 22, 2020

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Collapse: The Coronavirus is not a Cause, it is a Trigger

General Ideas

“Indeed, the coming crisis might turn out to be so bad to push us back to the Middle Ages. But it is also true that all major epidemics in history have seen a robust rebound after the collapse. Consider that, in the mid-14th century, the “black death” killed perhaps 40% of the population of Europe but…”

Do you remember the story of the straw that broke the camel’s back? It is an illustration of how overloaded systems are sensitive to small perturbations. Could the COVID-19 epidemic be the straw that breaks the back of the world’s economy?
Like an overloaded camel, the world’s economy is strained by at least two tremendous burdens: one is the increasing costs of production of mineral resources (don’t be fooled by the current low prices of oil: prices are one thing, costs are another). Then, there is pollution, including climate change, also weighing on the economy. These two factors define the condition called “overshoot,” occurring when an economic system is consuming more resources than nature can replace. Sooner or later, an economy in overshoot has to come to terms with reality. It means that it can’t continue to grow: it must decline.
These considerations can be quantified. It was done for the first time in 1972 with the famous report The Limits to Growth sponsored by the Club of Rome. Widely disbelieved at the time, today we recognize that the model used for the study had correctly identified the trends of the world’s economy. The results of the study showed that the double burden of resource depletion and pollution would bring economic growth first to a halt and then cause it to collapse, probably at some moment during the first decades of the 21st century. Even with very optimistic assumptions on the availability of natural resources and of new technologies the calculations show that the collapse could at best be postponed, but not avoided. Many later studies confirmed these results: collapse turns out to be a typical feature of systems in overshoot, a phenomenon called sometimes the “Seneca Cliff” from a sentence of the ancient Roman philosopher Lucius Annaeus Seneca.
The coronavirus, in itself, is a minor perturbation, but the system is poised for collapse and the epidemics may trigger it. We already saw how the world’s economy is fragile: it nearly collapsed in 2008 under the relatively small perturbation of the crash of the subprime mortgage market. At that time, it was possible to contain the damage but, today, the fragility of the system has not improved and the coronavirus may be a stronger perturbation. The collapse of entire sectors of the economy, such as the tourism industry (more than 10% of the world’s gross product), is already ongoing and it may be impossible to stop it from spreading to other sectors.
So, what exactly is it going to happen to us? Since we started with mentioning a camel, we may also mention a famous statement by Shaykh R?shid that we can summarize as, “My father rode a camel, I drive a Mercedes, my son will ride a camel.” Might that sentence have been truly prophetic?
Indeed, the coming crisis might turn out to be so bad to push us back to the Middle Ages. But it is also true that all major epidemics in history have seen a robust rebound after the collapse. Consider that, in the mid-14th century, the “black death” killed perhaps 40% of the population of Europe but, a century later, Europeans were discovering America and starting their attempt of conquering the world. It may be that the black death was instrumental in this rebound: the temporary reduction of the European population had freed the resources necessary for a new leap forward.
Could we see a similar rebound of our society in the future? Why not? After all, the coronavirus could be doing us a favor by forcing us to abandon the obsolete and polluting fossil fuels we use today. The current low market prices are the result of the contraction of the demand and are likely to be the straw that breaks the back of the oil industry. That will leave space for new and more efficient technologies. Today, solar energy has become so cheap that it is possible to think of a society fully based on renewable energy. It won’t be easy, but recent studies show that it can be done.
That doesn’t mean that the near term collapse can be avoided. The transition to a new energy infrastructure will require enormous investments, impossible to find in a moment of economic contraction we expect for the near future. But, in the long run, the transition is unavoidable and there is hope for a “Seneca rebound” toward a new society based on clean and renewable energy, no more plagued by the threats of depletion and climate change. It will take time, but we can heal the poor camel’s back.
Ugo Bardi teaches physical chemistry at the University of Florence, in Italy and he is also a member of the Club of Rome. He is interested in resource depletion, system dynamics modeling, climate science and renewable energy. Contact: ugo.bardi(whirlything)unifi.it

kashmir times



12 Comments on "Collapse: The Coronavirus is not a Cause, it is a Trigger"

  1. Sissyfuss on Thu, 23rd Apr 2020 8:29 am 

    This is not a replay of the Black Death, this is a prelude to Climate Disruption and harvest cycle mistiming. The majority of emmissions have been spewed in the last 30 years and the nefarious effects of said emmissions are delayed 10 to 20 years. We haven’t seen anything yet.

  2. Abraham van Helsing on Thu, 23rd Apr 2020 2:14 pm 

    Antibody, quick and cheap, are becoming available:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8250133/NHS-trusts-buy-antibody-kits-Dutch-firm-test-staff.html

    finger prick, 15 minutes, 99 GBP

  3. show solidarity on Thu, 23rd Apr 2020 2:48 pm 

    supetards
    please bag urself to show solidarity with world grater supremacist muzzies bag day feb12021

  4. DT on Thu, 23rd Apr 2020 4:44 pm 

    supetards
    please bag juanPee to show solidarity with world grater supremacist muzzies hate the troll day feb12021

  5. whoa on Thu, 23rd Apr 2020 5:06 pm 

    Amid Pandemic, Minneapolis Permits Mosque to Broadcast Call to Prayer During Ramadan

    soul crushing noise that doesn’t violate noise ordiance

    this is due to muzzie love
    love of supremacist muzzies conquer all

  6. whoa on Thu, 23rd Apr 2020 5:21 pm 

    On This Day…
    Apr 23, 2005: London, UK
    A muzzie FGM NASTY is honor killed by her
    family for loving the wrong man: 1 Killed

    this stuff used to be in bumfk muzzieland but now in muzzie lovin UK and this coincides with the intense use of high british english for the sake of muzzie lovin

    ht supertard glenn roberts thereligionofpeace

  7. Abraham van Helsing on Sat, 25th Apr 2020 4:11 pm 

    Oh dear, high-end US dissident Paul Craig Roberts at it again, reviews works by David Irving:

    https://www.unz.com/proberts/churchills-war-the-real-history-of-world-war-ii/

    People in the Western world have been indoctrinated for 75 years into a white hat/black hat story of World War II that exonerates the “allies” and demonizes Hitler and Germany. To tell people, especially elderly ones whose memory of the war was formed by war propaganda, that the “allies” were as bad or worse war criminals than the Germans brings fire and brimstone down on one’s head…

    In the false history comes strength for the opinion that we Americans and our country are exceptional and indispensable and that these traits justify Washington’s hegemony over the world…

    Hitler did not start World War II. England and France launched World War II with a declaration of war against Germany. Hitler did not want a war with Britain and France and tried to avoid it and then end it with a peace agreement very favorable to Britain and France. Hitler regarded the British Empire as essential to the survival of European dominance. He promised Churchill in exchange for an end of hostilities that Germany would defend the British Empire with the German military anywhere in the world that it was in jeopardy. Hitler left a large part of France and French North Africa unoccupied. He left the French fleet in French hands…

    Hitler’s aim was to restore the integrity of the German nation which had been torn apart and distributed to Czechoslovakia, Poland, Denmark, and France by the Versailles Treaty which had been forced on Germany after World War I by a policy of starvation…

    Germans in the territories turned over to Czechoslovakia and Poland were being persecuted and murdered. Hitler had no choice but to do something about it. He recovered German territory from France, Czechoslovakia, and Denmark without war.

    Roosevelt wanted Britain at war. He knew it would bankrupt the British and place them economically in Washington’s hands, which would permit the US to break up the British system of trade preferences that allowed Britain to control world trade, destroy the British Empire, dethrone the British pound and replace it with the dollar.

    #SpecialRelationship
    #BritainWonWW2-LOL

    Churchill would first have the civilian areas firebombed, and then when firemen and rescue workers were engaged the British would drop high explosives. Churchill ignored military targets, preferring instead to break the morale of the German population by bombing civilian areas… As the British people did not know Churchill was bombing civilians, Churchill hoped Hitler would be provoked into replying in kind. Hitler refused for three months to take the bait, but finally his military insisted that unless he bombed the British they would keep on bombing German civilian areas. etc., etc.

    Roberts tells EXACTLY the same story I have been telling for years here.

    Honest and courageous Americans, you have to look good, but they do exist.

  8. joe on Sun, 26th Apr 2020 3:57 am 

    The Orientalist tendency inherited from the European empires will play out in the US. Islam and individualism do not agree. The more you import migrants and Islam, the more votes you make for fake bourgeois socialists like Sanders and AOC. Eventually you no longer find a use for the phrase ‘give me liberty or give me death’. If you dont believe in Jesus or heaven, then you strive only for the judgement of this one temporal life. Islam is the religion (Petra was before Mecca) of the temporal.

  9. Abraham van Helsing on Sun, 26th Apr 2020 4:46 am 

    “The Orientalist tendency inherited from the European empires will play out in the US.”

    ??? LOL!

    British Empire fossil and Brexiteer joe esquire and his outlandish rambling analyses, always with an implicit, anti-white, anti-European undertone of hate, so typical for the Brexiteer English.

    What America inherited from Europe was basically, in its origin Dutch, the protestant-capitalist-anti-monarchist-republican-individualist heritage that the Dutch fought for for 80 years (1568-1648) against the #1 power in those days, catholic Spain…

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eighty_Years%27_War

    …and the results of that revolution was transplanted by the Dutch army into Britain (1688, Glorious Revolution), after catholic France and catholic England had tried to destroy the protestant Netherlands in 1672. Britain in its present but outgoing shape itself is a creation of the Dutch army:

    https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2020/02/16/great-britain-is-a-creation-of-the-netherlands/

    Here a young American discussing the Dutch ideals, as expressed in the Dutch movie “Willem de Ruyter”, the sea admiral who prevented the annihilation of the Netherlands by sinking the English and French fleets to the bottom of the sea, where they belong:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6GtOmTLnlXU

    You immediately sense the affinity between Americans and the Dutch ideals of liberty.

    Between 1783-1900, for Americans, the Netherlands was the most idealized country and example for the US:

    https://www.amazon.com/Holland-Mania-Annette-Stott/dp/0879519061/ref=sr_1_1?

    (It could have been Britain as well, but for psychological reasons it doesn’t make sense to idealize a country you have just kicked out, so Holland it was to be).

    Between 1900-1933, the US was gradually taken over by the Jews, who put the country on a global imperialist trajectory, until 2016, in an attempt to take over the entire world, in line with their self-image as “Gods Chosen People Destined to Inherit the Earth”.

    Not bad for a shabby tribe from the Ukraine, albeit with high verbal IQ115, the high verbal IQ being precisely the reason why they got that far. Where the IQ100 Europeans could colonize IQ85 North-Africans, using their superior technology, likewise IQ115 Jews could take over IQ100 Americans, not with superior technology, but with media and central banking, acquired by stealth in 1912 (Jekyll Island).

    Islam is no solution for Europe. Neither is hyper-atomized American individualism, leading to handing over a non-organized white tribe into the hands of the most organized tribe on the planet, the Jews.

    The solution for Europe is mild-nationalism within a European framework. The nation as the place where you feel at home, the European collective as an iron fist against predators (US and perhaps China or Islam).

    The world of the 21st century is going to be multi-polar, as professed by Samuel Huntington. China is going to be the #1 super-power, but will be balanced by PBM + some white balkanized hinterlands in North-America. The other Big Tents will be South-America, dark Africa, Islam, Japan, Iran, India. Imperialism will be a thing of the past.

  10. whoa on Sun, 26th Apr 2020 8:33 am 

    Abraham van Helsing on Sun, 26th Apr 2020 4:46 am

    “The Orientalist tendency inherited from the European empires will play out in the US.”

    ??? LOL!

    British Empire fossil and Brexiteer joe esquire and his outlandish rambling analyses, always with an implicit, anti-white, anti-European undertone of hate, so typical for the Brexiteer English.

    this is just a variation of muzzie lovin coupled with manifestation of mating season

    nothing to see her, the saying on earth centric universe is that it’s turtles all the way down which is attributed to an old woman
    poor women get the blame beccause the battle of science has muzzie doctrine embeded in it, the rabit hole goes very deep

  11. whoa on Sun, 26th Apr 2020 8:35 am 

    turtles
    refuseniks (of saying the A word for muzzies and muzzies imams)

    like fish in the sea
    we can’t avoid water

  12. whoa on Sun, 26th Apr 2020 9:13 am 

    Not bad for a shabby tribe from the Ukraine, albeit with high verbal IQ115, the high verbal IQ being precisely the reason why they got that far. Where the IQ100 Europeans could colonize IQ85 North-Africans, using their superior technology, likewise IQ115 Jews could take over IQ100 Americans, not with superior technology, but with media and central banking, acquired by stealth in 1912 (Jekyll Island).

    the big elephant in the room is the conviction that high english spoken by (((supertards))) is best. high english is the language of muzzie lovin.

    we have on our hand a (((supertard))) or a muzzie or a muzzie lover.

    rather than deal with the fact that low english is still in the running and worthwhile to be considered an american treasure, i guess they will keep writing me off as a tard and a former paultard – a crank.

    “little rocket man”
    “muzzie died like a dog”
    whitey supertard president trump

    “high british english”
    whitey supertard scientific supremacist muzzing lovin “thunderf00t”

    what would you choose?

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