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Biggest Oil Trader Sees No Travel Rebound Till Third Quarter

Biggest Oil Trader Sees No Travel Rebound Till Third Quarter thumbnail

A return to pre-pandemic levels of oil demand will hinge on jet-fuel use, which is unlikely to recover until the third quarter of the year, said Mike Muller, head of trader Vitol SA’s operations in Asia.

Jet fuel has been the oil product hardest hit by the coronavirus pandemic in Asia. Demand in the region for fuels such as diesel and gasoline was also affected but has rebounded. Vitol is the world’s biggest independent oil trader.

Global oil use dropped by 9 million barrels a day last year but should recoup more than 6 million in 2021, Muller said Wednesday at the Gulf Intelligence online conference. “The world has never seen such a transition; managing that will be very challenging,” he said. “The biggest single demand that needs to return is aviation fuel.”

Vaccine Pass

Consumption of jet fuel won’t bounce back without greater immunity among populations as a result of vaccinations and for people who’ve recovered from Covid-19, Muller said.

“Until there’s a roll-out and until we introduce the inevitable — which is, alongside your regular passport, probably a vaccination pass — this demand is not set to recover,” he said. “Looking at bookings for holidays in Europe, the Americas and Asia, it’s all flat on its back still. This must change.”

By the end of this year, demand for jet fuel will still be 1 million to 2 million barrels a day less than what it was before the coronavirus, Vitol Chief Executive Officer Russell Hardy said in a Bloomberg television interview at the same event.

Uncertainty about a recovery in Asian consumption has prompted refiners there to forgo long-term supply contracts in the expectation of higher prices in the future. As much as 1 million barrels a day of refining capacity in Asia may disappear due to weak profit margins, Arif Mahmood of Malaysia’s state-run Petroliam Nasional Bhd said at the same conference.

“It will open up opportunities for new refineries such as Middle East ones to put products in Asia, or those with excess capacity,” said Mahmood, head of the downstream business at the company known also as Petronas. Refining margins should improve in the second half of the year, he said.

In Europe, demand will move “very much sideways” for the next two to three months, Hardy said in his interview. Yet, markets are already “racing ahead” to price in the effect of coronavirus vaccines, he said.

The world will need more oil from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries later this year, and possibly also more supply from shale producers, Hardy said.


10 Comments on "Biggest Oil Trader Sees No Travel Rebound Till Third Quarter"

  1. Duncan Idaho on Thu, 14th Jan 2021 10:15 am 

    The End Of The Pussy-Grabbing President

    “From start to finish, one of the defining themes of Donald Trump’s presidency was his profound anxiety about masculinity.”

  2. Duncan Idaho on Thu, 14th Jan 2021 3:23 pm 

    Republicans Accuse Liz Cheney of Reading Constitution

    (at least she can read)

  3. makati1 on Thu, 14th Jan 2021 4:28 pm 

    Any bets on how long Basement Biden will actually get to play President before the bitch takes over?

    Will it be because:
    1. Senility makes it impossible to function.
    2. Death from old age.
    3. The PTB are in a rush and he is slowing down the Big Reset, or is he? Hmm.

    After all, they are pushing this as fast as they can to get their fascist/socialist police state up and running before the serfs get off their couches and pick up their pitchforks.

    I think it is going to be a very hot summer in the cities*, Western ones, that is. Especially in Amerika. Pass the popcorn.

    * “Hot Summer in the City” – 1966

  4. supremacist muzzies jerk on Thu, 14th Jan 2021 5:46 pm 

    supertards please change ur undies after 5 days to prevent convict-19

    911 was a one time event so we can excuse people for not seeing it but convict-19 is an ongoing false flag since march with a face diaper and nobody can see?

    if we can’t see convict-19 how can we see supremacist muzzies?

  5. FamousDrScanlon on Thu, 14th Jan 2021 6:48 pm 

    supremacist muzzies jerk, where ya been?

    Were you hiding away in your MAGA-tard man cave licking your wounds?

    No worries, you were not the only one. Good on you laddie.

    BTW, I appreciate your weird & unique style of humour.

    You’re my #1

  6. Cloggie on Sat, 16th Jan 2021 2:42 am 

    Is Europe taking over the American (and global) energy sector?

    “European Renewable Success in the US – “Seven Brothers?””

  7. Cloggie on Sat, 16th Jan 2021 3:25 am 

    Current largest electrolyzer 10 MW (Shell-Germany + ITM), I believe.

    Linde and ITM are going to break that record with a new electrolyzer of 24 MW:

    “Linde & ITM Building 24 MW Electrolyzer”

    Target customers: car fuel and industry.

    40 of those in an array and you can absorb the output of a modern 1 GW power station.

    More European renewable energy supremacy, if we take the liberty of counting Britain as European.

  8. Cloggie on Sat, 16th Jan 2021 4:00 am 

    French building 40 MW electrolyzer

  9. MadKat on Sat, 16th Jan 2021 6:44 am 

    It takes some balls, which Madkat is lacking, to identify another human being as senile.

  10. makati1 on Sat, 16th Jan 2021 4:09 pm 

    It obviously doesn’t take brains to try a useless putdown, MadKat. You have no idea what you are talking about, as usual.

    Do I feel sorry that you are trapped in the hell called Amerika? NOPE! You, and a few others on here, no matter what you call yourselves, deserve every pain coming your way. The West deserves what is being served out to you by your masters. You have been doing it to other countries for decades. Blow-back is a nasty bitch.

    I watch the action from far shores and am thankful I made the decision to relocate when it was easy. Almost impossible for Amerikans now. Especially if you are not in the top 1%, and I doubt you are even in the top 50%.

    Another beautiful day here in the land of eternal sunshine. Partly cloudy with a few showers to keep everything green and the flowers blooming. 70s now and going up to the 80s later. Pass the popcorn.

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