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Are we on the road to civilisation collapse?

Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? thumbnail

Great civilisations are not murdered. Instead, they take their own lives.

So concluded the historian Arnold Toynbee in his 12-volume magnum opus A Study of History. It was an exploration of the rise and fall of 28 different civilisations.

He was right in some respects: civilisations are often responsible for their own decline. However, their self-destruction is usually assisted.

The Roman Empire, for example, was the victim of many ills including overexpansion, climatic change, environmental degradation and poor leadership. But it was also brought to its knees when Rome was sacked by the Visigoths in 410 and the Vandals in 455.

Collapse is often quick and greatness provides no immunity. The Roman Empire covered 4.4 million sq km (1.9 million sq miles) in 390. Five years later, it had plummeted to 2 million sq km (770,000 sq miles). By 476, the empire’s reach was zero.

Our deep past is marked by recurring failure. As part of my research at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at the University of Cambridge, I am attempting to find out why collapse occurs through a historical autopsy. What can the rise and fall of historic civilisations tell us about our own? What are the forces that precipitate or delay a collapse? And do we see similar patterns today?

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The first way to look at past civilisations is to compare their longevity. This can be difficult, because there is no strict definition of civilisation, nor an overarching database of their births and deaths.

In the graphic below, I have compared the lifespan of various civilisations, which I define as a society with agriculture, multiple cities, military dominance in its geographical region and a continuous political structure. Given this definition, all empires are civilisations, but not all civilisations are empires. The data is drawn from two studies on the growth and decline of empires (for 3000-600BC and 600BC-600), and an informal, crowd-sourced survey of ancient civilisations (which I have amended).

“Historic

Click/pinch to enlarge. Here’s the full list of the civilisations displayed above. (Credit: Nigel Hawtin)

Collapse can be defined as a rapid and enduring loss of population, identity and socio-economic complexity. Public services crumble and disorder ensues as government loses control of its monopoly on violence.

Virtually all past civilisations have faced this fate. Some recovered or transformed, such as the Chinese and Egyptian. Other collapses were permanent, as was the case of Easter Island. Sometimes the cities at the epicentre of collapse are revived, as was the case with Rome. In other cases, such as the Mayan ruins, they are left abandoned as a mausoleum for future tourists.

What can this tell us about the future of global modern civilisation? Are the lessons of agrarian empires applicable to our post-18th Century period of industrial capitalism?

Collapse may be a normal phenomenon for civilisations, regardless of their size and technological stage

I would argue that they are. Societies of the past and present are just complex systems composed of people and technology. The theory of “normal accidents” suggests that complex technological systems regularly give way to failure. So collapse may be a normal phenomenon for civilisations, regardless of their size and stage.

We may be more technologically advanced now. But this gives little ground to believe that we are immune to the threats that undid our ancestors. Our newfound technological abilities even bring new, unprecedented challenges to the mix.

And while our scale may now be global, collapse appears to happen to both sprawling empires and fledgling kingdoms alike. There is no reason to believe that greater size is armour against societal dissolution. Our tightly-coupled, globalised economic system is, if anything, more likely to make crisis spread.

Building falling into sea

Climatic pressures are worsening (Credit: Getty Images)

If the fate of previous civilisations can be a roadmap to our future, what does it say? One method is to examine the trends that preceded historic collapses and see how they are unfolding today.

While there is no single accepted theory for why collapses happen, historians, anthropologists and others have proposed various explanations, including:

CLIMATIC CHANGE: When climatic stability changes, the results can be disastrous, resulting in crop failure, starvation and desertification. The collapse of the Anasazi, the Tiwanaku civilisation, the Akkadians, the Mayan, the Roman Empire, and many others have all coincided with abrupt climatic changes, usually droughts.

ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION: Collapse can occur when societies overshoot the carrying capacity of their environment. This ecological collapse theory, which has been the subject of bestselling books, points to excessive deforestation, water pollution, soil degradation and the loss of biodiversity as precipitating causes.

INEQUALITY AND OLIGARCHY: Wealth and political inequality can be central drivers of social disintegration, as can oligarchy and centralisation of power among leaders. This not only causes social distress, but handicaps a society’s ability to respond to ecological, social and economic problems.

The field of cliodynamics models how factors such as equality and demography correlate with political violence. Statistical analysis of previous societies suggests that this happens in cycles. As population increases, the supply of labour outstrips demand, workers become cheap and society becomes top-heavy. This inequality undermines collective solidarity and political turbulence follows.

COMPLEXITY: Collapse expert and historian Joseph Tainter has proposed that societies eventually collapse under the weight of their own accumulated complexity and bureaucracy. Societies are problem-solving collectives that grow in complexity in order to overcome new issues. However, the returns from complexity eventually reach a point of diminishing returns. After this point, collapse will eventually ensue.

Another measure of increasing complexity is called Energy Return on Investment (EROI). This refers to the ratio between the amount of energy produced by a resource relative to the energy needed to obtain it. Like complexity, EROI appears to have a point of diminishing returns. In his book The Upside of Down, the political scientist Thomas Homer-Dixon observed that environmental degradation throughout the Roman Empire led to falling EROI from their staple energy source: crops of wheat and alfalfa. The empire fell alongside their EROI. Tainter also blames it as a chief culprit of collapse, including for the Mayan.

EXTERNAL SHOCKS: In other words, the “four horsemen”: war, natural disasters, famine and plagues. The Aztec Empire, for example, was brought to an end by Spanish invaders. Most early agrarian states were fleeting due to deadly epidemics. The concentration of humans and cattle in walled settlements with poor hygiene made disease outbreaks unavoidable and catastrophic. Sometimes disasters combined, as was the case with the Spanish introducing salmonella to the Americas.

RANDOMNESS/BAD LUCK: Statistical analysis on empires suggests that collapse is random and independent of age. Evolutionary biologist and data scientist Indre Zliobaite and her colleagues have observed a similar pattern in the evolutionary record of species. A common explanation of this apparent randomness is the “Red Queen Effect”: if species are constantly fighting for survival in a changing environment with numerous competitors, extinction is a consistent possibility.

Despite the abundance of books and articles, we don’t have a conclusive explanation as to why civilisations collapse. What we do know is this: the factors highlighted above can all contribute. Collapse is a tipping point phenomena, when compounding stressors overrun societal coping capacity.

We can examine these indicators of danger to see if our chance of collapse is falling or rising. Here are four of those possible metrics, measured over the past few decades:

Graphics showing collapse risk rising

Click/pinch to enlarge (Credit: Nigel Hawtin)

Temperature is a clear metric for climate change, GDP is a proxy for complexity and the ecological footprint is an indicator for environmental degradation. Each of these has been trending steeply upwards.

Inequality is more difficult to calculate. The typical measurement of the Gini Index suggests that inequality has decreased slightly globally (although it is increasing within countries). However, the Gini Index can be misleading as it only measures relative changes in income. In other words, if two individuals earning $1 and $100,000 both doubled their income, the Gini would show no change. But the gap between the two would have jumped from $99,999 to $198,000.

Because of this, I have also depicted the income share of the global top 1%. The 1% have increased in their share of global income from approximately 16% in 1980 to over 20% today. Importantly, wealth inequality is even worse. The share of global wealth from the 1% has swelled from 25-30% in the 1980s to approximately 40% in 2016. The reality is likely to be starker as these numbers do not capture wealth and income siphoned into overseas tax havens.

Homeless on Wall Street (Credit: Getty Images)

The rich are getting richer, which in past civilisations has created additional stress on societies (Credit: Getty Images)

Studies suggest that the EROI for fossil fuels has been steadily decreasing over time as the easiest to reach and richest reserves are depleted. Unfortunately, most renewable replacements, such as solar, have a markedly lower EROI, largely due to their energy density and the rare earth metals and manufacturing required to produce them.

This has led much of the literature to discuss the possibility of an “energy cliff” as EROI declines to a point where current societal levels of affluence can no longer be maintained. The energy cliff need not be terminal if renewable technologies continue to improve and energy efficiency measures are speedily implemented.

Measures of resilience

The somewhat reassuring news is that collapse metrics are not the entire picture. Societal resilience may be able to delay or prevent collapse.

For example, globally “economic diversity” – a measurement of the diversity and sophistication of country exports ­– is greater today than it was in the 1960s and 1970s, as measured by the Economic Complexity Index (ECI). Nations are, on average, less reliant on single types of exports than they once were. For example, a nation that had diversified beyond only exporting agricultural products would be more likely to weather ecological degradation or the loss of trading partners. The ECI also measures the knowledge-intensity of exports. More skilled populations may have a greater capacity to respond to crises as they arise.

There are some reasons to be optimistic, thanks to our ability to innovate and diversify away from disaster. Yet the world is worsening in areas that have contributed to the collapse of previous societies

Similarly, innovation – as measured by per capita patent applications – is also rising. In theory, a civilisation might be less vulnerable to collapse if new technologies can mitigate against pressures such as climate change.

It’s also possible that “collapse” can happen without violent catastrophe. As Rachel Nuwer wrote on BBC Future in 2017, “in some cases, civilisations simply fade out of existence – becoming the stuff of history not with a bang but a whimper”.

Factory workers welding (Credit: Getty Images)

Our technological capabalities may have the potential to delay collapse (Credit: Getty Images)

Still, when we look at all these collapse and resilience indicators as a whole, the message is clear that we should not be complacent. There are some reasons to be optimistic, thanks to our ability to innovate and diversify away from disaster. Yet the world is worsening in areas that have contributed to the collapse of previous societies. The climate is changing, the gap between the rich and poor is widening, the world is becoming increasingly complex, and our demands on the environment are outstripping planetary carrying capacity.

The rungless ladder

That’s not all. Worryingly, the world is now deeply interconnected and interdependent. In the past, collapse was confined to regions – it was a temporary setback, and people often could easily return to agrarian or hunter-gatherer lifestyles. For many, it was even a welcome reprieve from the oppression of early states. Moreover, the weapons available during social disorder were rudimentary: swords, arrows and occasionally guns.

Today, societal collapse is a more treacherous prospect. The weapons available to a state, and sometimes even groups, during a breakdown now range from biological agents to nuclear weapons. New instruments of violence, such as lethal autonomous weapons, may be available in the near future. People are increasingly specialised and disconnected from the production of food and basic goods. And a changing climate may irreparably damage our ability to return to simple farming practices.

Think of civilisation as a poorly-built ladder. As you climb, each step that you used falls away. A fall from a height of just a few rungs is fine. Yet the higher you climb, the larger the fall. Eventually, once you reach a sufficient height, any drop from the ladder is fatal.

With the proliferation of nuclear weapons, we may have already reached this point of civilisational “terminal velocity”. Any collapse – any fall from the ladder – risks being permanent. Nuclear war in itself could result in an existential risk: either the extinction of our species, or a permanent catapult back to the Stone Age.

Syria ruin

A woman walks in the ruins of a town in Syria following conflict between fighters (Credit: Getty Images)

While we are becoming more economically powerful and resilient, our technological capabilities also present unprecedented threats that no civilisation has had to contend with. For example, the climatic changes we face are of a different nature to what undid the Maya or Anazasi. They are global, human-driven, quicker, and more severe.

Assistance in our self-imposed ruin will not come from hostile neighbors, but from our own technological powers. Collapse, in our case, would be a progress trap.

The collapse of our civilisation is not inevitable. History suggests it is likely, but we have the unique advantage of being able to learn from the wreckages of societies past.

We know what needs to be done: emissions can be reduced, inequalities levelled, environmental degradation reversed, innovation unleashed and economies diversified. The policy proposals are there. Only the political will is lacking. We can also invest in recovery. There are already well-developed ideas for improving the ability of food and knowledge systems to be recuperated after catastrophe. Avoiding the creation of dangerous and widely-accessible technologies is also critical. Such steps will lessen the chance of a future collapse becoming irreversible.

We will only march into collapse if we advance blindly. We are only doomed if we are unwilling to listen to the past.

BBC



12 Comments on "Are we on the road to civilisation collapse?"

  1. Shortend on Fri, 22nd Feb 2019 8:02 am 

    What goes up, goes down. Been fortunate to have lived on the upswing and nearing or at it’s peak.
    We’ve been warned since the 1970s regarding overshoot and largely ignored.
    Now the chickens coming home to roost.
    No whining, Gentlemen
    Made our beds

  2. Dredd on Fri, 22nd Feb 2019 8:16 am 

    We seem to have built the super highway over the top of that road while ruminating about “infrastructure” (How To Identify The Despotic Minority – 8).

  3. Dredd on Fri, 22nd Feb 2019 8:22 am 

    They mention Toynbee but are incorrect that climate change was involved.

    He summed it up this way:

    “In the Study Toynbee examined the rise and fall of 26 civilizations in the course of human history, and he concluded that they rose by responding successfully to challenges under the leadership of creative minorities composed of elite leaders. Civilizations declined when their leaders stopped responding creatively, and the civilizations then sank owing to the sins of nationalism, militarism, and the tyranny of a despotic minority.”
    Encyclopedia Britannica).

    Why would the BBC not quote its most famous encyclopedia?

  4. Free Speech Message Board on Fri, 22nd Feb 2019 8:59 am 

    The USA is collapsing.

    The US is in debt, is conducting multiple wars, is a police state, is flooded by illegal immigrants, and has become immoral.

    Americans are either ignoring the decay or think that nothing can be done to stop the decline. Almost no one thinks the US can be saved.

    No one appears to be worried about tyranny because liberals think the police state only applies to conservatives and conservatives think the police state only affects liberals.

    The truth seems to be that the elites want to wipe out the strong white men and plan to send the weak liberals to the gulags where they will be starved and killed. The 1% will then divide the wealth and land of the US among themselves.

    How else can you explain the destruction of the USA? Economics isn’t rocket science. If you want a strong economy, don’t punish hard work with taxes and regulations while rewarding laziness with welfare and allowing millions of 3rd world immigrants to flood the country.

    http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2014/12/psychopathy_and_politics.html

    Those fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

    Sadly Americans won’t realize what is happening until it is too late.

    Never underestimate the inhumanity of man towards man. Greed has no bounds.

    Wake up.

    Think.

    Pass the word.

  5. Robert Inget on Fri, 22nd Feb 2019 10:23 am 

    Free Speech is far too depressed.
    Try exercise.
    Worked for me.

    Donald Trump was gift.
    He gave us a diversified Congress.
    He exposed racism in US & EU.
    He ran the debt up more than a trillion dollars, thereby alarming all but our goldfish population.
    He made almost everyone wish truth would once again become a ‘thing’.
    He, who has never read an entire book or the US constitution, is teaching law and history to all who have eyes and ears.
    Best of all, women got woke.
    There may never be another male president of the US for hundreds of years in America.

  6. Lucifer on Fri, 22nd Feb 2019 1:11 pm 

    I’m back. I have been busy recently with the usual stuff, i had one of my underlings in hell rise up while i was roaming around the earth with you lot. I quashed that uprising with great fire and vengeance, lol. Anyway i just wanted to say it is to late for humans now, the point of no return was crossed many years ago and the collapse is coming very soon. The horsemen are ready and powered up, so enjoy the ride.

  7. Sissyfuss on Fri, 22nd Feb 2019 2:47 pm 

    Lucifer, you never went away. Your spirit seems to be below us waiting for a mishap or a stumble that makes the portal open.As we become more crowded and heated, more of the barrier that restricts you will be melted away. Your anticipation must be powerful.

  8. makati1 on Fri, 22nd Feb 2019 5:51 pm 

    America’s bridge is falling down…falling down…falling down.

    America’s bridge is falling down, my old lady!

    “– The U.S. federal government owes more money than any other institution in the history of human civilization and it’s just getting worse…

    – Last week, the United States national debt ticked above US$22 trillion for the first time, an amount equivalent to $67,000 per U.S. citizen…

    Every second, the U.S. national debt grows by about $46,000….

    – The U.S. debt is now higher than the combined market value of the Fortune 500 and just with the money it spends on interest, the U.S. could run Canada or Mexico”

    https://news.goldcore.com/ie/gold-blog/the-utterly-unbelievable-scale-of-u-s-debt-right-now/

    The American “civilization” is collapsing. 3rd world here it comes!

  9. Davy on Fri, 22nd Feb 2019 6:03 pm 

    OH Boy, makato gives us the daily US debt spiel. makato, you get so boring sometimes saying the same shit over and over. You are about as bad as the clogged who twice daily says the US will be no more in a few years. I guess it is an old man thing.

  10. makati1 on Fri, 22nd Feb 2019 8:45 pm 

    “The Real National Emergency Isn’t At The Border. It’s The National Debt!”

    “We are headed for a train wreck in this country because of the national debt and yet nobody seems concerned about it. In fact, many Americans have taken to emulating the federal government by getting themselves buried in massive amounts of debt as well, compounding the issue….The United States debt surpassed the $22 trillion mark just last week and continues to rocket upward with no end in sight and this is just the very tip of the iceberg….“This is just a funded portion of the debt…. It doesn’t include [unfunded] liabilities like what the government owes for Social Security, or guaranteed bank deposits, or mortgages, or student loans, or all that nonsense….

    “Just because we haven’t suffered a crisis – yet- based on this debt doesn’t mean that one isn’t coming. In fact, there’s no way around it. It’s just a question of when. It’s not a question of if, it’s a question of when, and I think when is a lot closer than a lot of people think.””

    http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/peter-schiff-the-real-national-emergency-isnt-at-the-border-its-the-national-debt_02212019

    Slip slidin’…

  11. Darrell Cloud on Sat, 23rd Feb 2019 7:28 am 

    All any of us can do is look to our own circle of friends and family and try to come up with a localized plan to weather the coming collapse. We have a group of about a hundred that are going to try to avoid the year of horror that will follow systemic collapse.

  12. majece majece on Tue, 26th Feb 2019 8:46 am 

    In my opinion, only after reading information about writing formal letter from https://edit-proofread.com/blog/formal-letter you will learn more about it. It’s really important to know

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