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2019: Are you Ready for a New World War?

2019: Are you Ready for a New World War? thumbnail

 

Detail from Picasso’s “Guernica” – 1937

With the end of 2018, also the centennial of the end of the Great War (or WWI) is past. It passed remarkably in silence: a few celebrations, but little or no discussion of the reasons and the consequences of that war, supposed to be the one that would “end all wars.”

Reasonably, it was too much to expect that wars would ever end but maybe we could have at least learned something from rethinking to a conflict that caused some 40 million victims. But that didn’t happen (if you can read Italian, you may be interested in a reflection of mine on the subject). The world situation, today, looks more and more similar to the military build-up that took place in Europe in the years preceding the Great War. The “Great Powers” are arranging their forces as if they were setting their pieces on a giant chessboard. At some moment, someone may well decide to make the first move. And in this giant chess game, the kings can wipe out all the pawns in a single move with their nuclear warheads.

It would be nice to follow Steven Pinker’s optimism about modern times becoming less violent. There may be such a trend for the past few decades, but it is always dangerous to extrapolate from a limited dataset. In this case, the optimism of Pinker seems to be simply wrong if measured over a time span of several centuries. This is the result of an analysis of the data for the conflicts of the past 600 years that myself and my coworkers Martelloni and Di Patti performed in 2018 — it was thought, in part, as a way to celebrate the centennial of the Great War.

Our results confirm previous work: war is, it seems, a statistical phenomenon largely independent from religions, ideologies, money, and great leaders. It is an “emergent phenomenon” of the complex network of interaction among human societies worldwide. There is some evidence that wars are becoming less frequent, but they are also becoming more deadly. There is a chance of a major conflict in a non-remote future that could dwarf all past conflicts in terms of the destruction it could cause.

I have already reported some preliminary results of this study (also here, here, and here — see also a recent paper by Aaron Clauset). Now you can read our complete paper on ArXiv, and here are some excerpts.

_______________________________________________________________

Pattern Analysis of World Conflicts over the past 600 years

(excerpts from the complete paper)

We analyze the largest database available for violent conflicts, the one prepared by Brecke (Brecke 2011), covering some 600 years of human history. After normalizing the data for the global human population, we find that the number of casualties tends to follow a power law over the whole data series for the period considered, with no evidence of periodicity. We also observe that the number of conflicts, again normalized for the human population, show a decreasing trend as a function of time. Our results tend to support the idea that war is a statistical phenomenon related to the network structure of the human society.

Our contribution in this paper is the statistical analysis of the conflict catalog provided by Peter Brecke (Brecke 2011), possibly the largest existing today since it reports data for war fatalities from 1400 to 2000 AD. In addition, we examine the autocorrelation and the Fourier analysis applied to the time series of fatalities. We consider also the same data normalized to the world population. In the latter case, the fatality distribution clearly follows a power law. War seems to follow the same statistical laws as other catastrophic phenomena, such as hurricanes, earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, and landslides, whose distribution follows an approximate power law (P Bak 1996).

Our contribution in this field consists in validating the Brecke conclict database (Brecke 2011)⁠, among the longest and most complete ones available. This analysis confirms previous work, see e.g. (Clauset 2018)⁠ , (Clauset and Gleditsch 2018)⁠ for a general discussion. The data indicate that power laws are common in the distribution of violent conflicts in human history – in this case, the trend is clear when the number of casualties are normalized for the increasing world population. Note also that the normalized number of conflicts per year tend to decrease with time – this result indicates that in modern times war have tended to become less frequent, but more destructive. In practice, these result confirm that there is little evidence supporting the idea popularized by Pinker (Pinker 2011)⁠ that humankind is progressing toward a more peaceful world. A new major conflict might be possible in a non-remote future, as discussed among others by Clauset (Clauset 2018)⁠. These result seem to indicate that human conflicts are a critical phenomenon: we could say that humans worldwide tend to form societies existing in a self-organized critical condition, as defined by Bak et al. (Per Bak, Tang, and Wiesenfeld 1988)⁠. In these conditions, war is simply one of the methods that the system has to dissipate entropy at the fastest possible speed (Kleidon, Malhi, and Cox 2010)⁠,(Trinn 2018)⁠. In other words, war appears to be an unavoidable consequence of the behavior of human beings, and perhaps of other primate species (de Waal 2000)⁠.

 

Cassandra’s legacy by Ugo Bardi



17 Comments on "2019: Are you Ready for a New World War?"

  1. Cloggie on Sun, 30th Dec 2018 6:43 pm 

    The only real difference with Bardi’s 600 years history is that now, for the first time, warring factions can destroy each other, making the idea of “winning” superfluous. This should have a moderating effect. It did in the Cold War.

    Not to suggest that this is a guarantee for the future.

    In fact in a multi-polar world of the future of, let’s say 5 major power centers, every combination of 2 hostile powers A and B would realize that if A and B go at each others throat, they would wipe each other out, much to the satisfaction of C, D and E.

    It’s not for nothing that Orwell predicted in his “1984” that, yes, all major powers were at constant war with each other, but it was never full scale war, only skirmishes.

    “1984” was written in 1948, when nuclear devices were already used against civilians.

  2. ANAL BUTT FUCKER on Sun, 30th Dec 2018 10:29 pm 

    The only way we will go to war is if those fucking JEW loving chinks in Hong Kong fuck it up for everyone else.

    They need to be bombed for the sake of Caucasians and good looking human beings.

    Death to the IRISH TOO!

  3. fuck you on Sun, 30th Dec 2018 10:29 pm 

    I LOVE ANAL SEX AND HUGE VAGINAL BUSHES!

  4. makati1 on Sun, 30th Dec 2018 11:03 pm 

    2019 As I see it:

    1. A major recession/depression begins in the US.
    2. American anti-Russian/China/Iran/N.Korea propaganda increases to even more ridiculous levels.
    3. American drug deaths will exceed 10% growth.
    4. American suicides will also increase by similar amounts.
    5. The world will avoid a major war but the atomic clock will move closer to midnight.
    6. The riots and chaos in Europe will increase and spread to the US.
    7. China and Asia in general will continue to grow t 5+% levels.
    8. I will be here New Years 2020 to see how many of my educated guesses will come true.

    Let the intelligent, referenced rebuttals begin! LMAO!

  5. Theedrich on Mon, 31st Dec 2018 2:49 am 

    War is a biological urge in humans.  Most higher primates engage in it to the best of their ability.  Our closest genetic relatives (sharing 98% our our genes, or so we are told), the chimpanzees, are biologically driven to it.  We employ war simulations (soccer, football, certain violent video games, etc.) to give cathartic release to our love of killing.  Only one of many examples:  the pre-Columbian Aztecs used similar games to pick losers to offer up to their sun god — many thousands per year.

    The advantage that the English-speaking world has developed is the ability to use language better than anyone else to justify its warmongering.  The mass slaughter of civilians, refined to an unprecedented degree, has been the prime means of making America the “indispensable nation” over the last century and a quarter.  Of course, we learned our expertise in hypocrisy from the British, who had developed an empire “on whose soil the sun never set.”  As they say, words have consequences.

    Today, however, the situation is changing.  Since Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the rest of the world has learnt that sanctimonious and self-righteous Anglo-American lies mask the threat of annihilation by carpet-bombing, nuking, or other cute Christian tricks.  (Of course, Yankees would only kill “bad guys” like Nazis — defined as bad guys by the Anglophones in concert with the winners of WW I worried about the absurdity of the Versailles Treaty being undone).  Japan, of course, was ensnared into the maelstrom of WW II by the U.S. as a means of getting into that war through the back door.  It was such fun fire-storming civilian Tokyo and other Nip cities (never mind Germany), even before August 1945.  Makes one feel heroic.

    But today, thanks to America as tutor, high-tech weapons, nuclear and non-nuclear, of all sorts have become commoditized.  They are being quietly sold to any customer that has the cash:  smaller states, non-state actors, and who knows whom else.  No one any longer needs to use the hypocrisy of quasi-religious Newspeak to justify the annihilation of an opponent’s entire population.  If the devotees of Allah manage to obtain a few of the new toys, who know what may happen to Humpty Dumpty?  The Israelis already have their hands full dealing with some anti-Semitic Semites in Allahland who are importing and using comparatively low-tech missiles and other gear.  (Allegedly it is all from Iran, but many components may in fact come from Pakistan, China or other sources.)

    Currently the Democrats are trying to foment a war with Russia as a means of dislodging President Trump.  The underlying motive is their hatred of the White race;  and to the Leftists, Trump, as a White man, is the distilled concentrate of Whiteness which must be obliterated.  So no matter what his words or deeds may be, he is The Enemy who must be destroyed even if it takes a world war to accomplish that.  And if he somehow manages to survive through even a second term in office, then the deranged Dems will find some new path to war.  But the Russians and the Chinese, taught and steeled by history, will be waiting for their attack.

  6. Davy on Mon, 31st Dec 2018 5:05 am 

    It is best to look at this topic disengaged from ideology as is all too common. Systems thought is the best method I find for evaluation for the intellectually disengaged. This issue of war is very relevant to my work on doom, prep, and real green. The reason is related to how war is a trump card that is outside of other decline processes that are emerging and adapting. When I use the term war here I do not mean military actions and client proxy wars. These are military maneuvers akin to training and positioning. These involve the war establishment going about the business of war. I am also not referring to the destruction of a country which is the microcosm of the macro I am relating to. Yemen and Syria are a template for a total war but as they are now they are a localized competition of outside powers and internal rivalries. Localized civil wars allow the war establishment a playground for strategies and weapons. Normally there are rules involved to prevent a spreading. War I am referring to is what the article mentions as “war is simply one of the methods that the system has to dissipate entropy at the fastest possible speed” IOW total global war.

    The processes I study involved with systematic decline are mostly predictable long term processes of a slow entropic decay of human civilization and the planetary system. Total war is the most unpredictable and swiftest with little means to prepare for. I am talking about the escalation to full scale world war which seems certain to escalate to a NUK war. I am not sure of the science of NUK winter but I agree such a huge amount of debris being blasted into the atmosphere surely will be very destabilizing to the planetary system. The systematic result of a destruction of civilization through the loss of finance, industry, and transport on a global scale will surely lead to mass famine for those who survive. Where the targeting occurs of course there will be impact devastation. What about where it does not occur how will these areas reboot from the systematic loss of the global economy and disruption to the planetary systems? How bad will the resulting radiation dispersion be? I have read different accounts for the devastation of radiation fallout. How many NUK’s will be exchanged and will such a war mean all potential enemies will be drawn in for example would the US allow China to go unscathed in an all-out exchange with Russia? What about a smaller war that goes critical with major powers but does not go NUK? I suspect this will still destroy globalism as we know it. Never before have humans been so delocalized and dependent on one system like we are today where for the most part a few monoculture crops feed the world on a few resources like oil that lubricate the process all connected by far flung transport networks facilitated by digital connectivity and administration.

    I am in a very bad location for NUK war. The US is certain to be in the crosshairs of a massive strike. I am located within 50 mi radius of an important Army base that will surely be hit. I am also potentially downwind of strikes that will surely hit the complex of missile silos in the Great Plains. The winds that affect my doomstead are variable per the season and per storm systems so the fall out dangers are unclear until it happens. I have done some light research for what to do in regards to fallout. I am not in an impact zone so fall out is my concern. I have a fallout shelter of sorts to weather this period of a few days of dispersal of the worst of this radiation. Of course areas will be coated in radioactive contamination for the foreseeable future. I have read various accounts of what that involves from deadly to manageable. I then have the issue of the country and by extension community that is destroyed with survivors roaming the countryside in search of survival. How bad will this be? How many urban areas will have been destroyed by direct impact and resulting post impact deaths? This is important because it will determine how many people will be on the move.

    My conclusion is that there is not much to prep for in this circumstance. I have enough to get me through the event. I have a safe room with iodine tablets, gas masks, and filtration for the initial event. I have food, water, and tools for the days after. I have a guns, ammo, and big dogs that will help protect a little. In this kind of situation I also have a wine and whisky collection. In times of a moderate to mild collapse I will use these resources for barter. I gave up drinking 13 years ago. I didn’t always drink responsibly and I was at a point in my life for a change. I am very happy with that change and would recommend it to others in their 40’s as a way to go down a different path. With this type of hopeless situation I may take up drinking again. It would be a good way to go by drinking wine and whiskey and singing songs like American pie with some other survivors telling stories of our times in the world that just ended.

  7. Cloggie on Mon, 31st Dec 2018 5:21 am 

    As always, what Theedrich says.

    For the rest, the outlook for whitey is not that bad at all, after yet a major strategic ZOG-defeat in Afghanistan and Syria at the hands of Vlad the European. But white Americans need to brace themselves for some major inconveniences coming their way.

    The bi-partisan system in the US is morphing into one of two clean-cut opponents (as in: enemies): Reps (white party) and Dems (anti-white white, black, muslim, asian, mongrel commies).

    Under Trump the Reps are now the anti-deep state dissidents. The Dems are the only system party left, who are biding their time for the time after Trump. They will try to topple Trump at the earliest occasion if they think they can do so without provoking CW2.

    Last year the deep state (((owners))) of America officially gave up on global empire:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2017-09-27/america-s-new-world-order-is-officially-dead

    Last month they even gave up on attempting to further mongrelize continental Europe, which is more or less the same as giving up on continental Europe altogether:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/22/hillary-clinton-europe-must-curb-immigration-stop-populists-trump-brexit

    (But they still want Britain)

    That’s right Hillary, bye-bye West, PBM (Paris-Berlin-Moscow) is next as the core address of the white race.

    Europe’s anti-Anglo Gaullists (Putin, Fillon) are already plotting how they can exploit the Yellow Vest white insurrection to their advantage and prepare the takeover from Macron:

    http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/59317

    [part 1]

  8. Cloggie on Mon, 31st Dec 2018 5:23 am 

    In America meanwhile there is groundswell to prepare for the move away from ZOG and create a white ethno-state, preferably via bloodless secession of red states, but if necessary through violence.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=45uy-TtkD1k

    The numbers:

    – Europe (Atlantic-Urals): 640m, 10m km2, 30 countries (8% non-white)
    – South America: 420m, 17m km2, 12 countries, some majority white, some indigenous
    – North America: 330m+37m, 10m km2 + 10m km2, 2 countries (61%, 73% white)

    More than enough potential for several countries more on North-American soil.

    Let’s face it, the entire world wants to live in white lands, if they got the chance. A new development since the campaign 2016 is that white America broke out of their pc cocoon and for the first time openly admitted to itself that it wants that too, a major geopolitical development:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZGSAhNZnisk

    As always you need a somewhat authoritarian catalyst to make that happen. Now the genie is out of the bottle and won’t be put in again other than with force. That will be the drama of CW2: white escape attempts against kosher attempts to hold on to power.

    A major opportunity for Europe (now in the form of PBM) to restore its ancient power of 2500 years by intervening in the coming standoff, ensure a split and the little American problem the white race=European civilization has, would be solved once and for all. While China will be using the occasion to have a good time Down Under, PBM troops will team up with US white nationalists and lay the zog-dog to rest.

    Or as UK senior Lord Heseltine prefers to put it:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/24/lord-heseltine-suggests-brexit-allowing-germany-win-world-war/

    [part 2]

  9. GetAVasectomyLoserLifeSuckAss on Mon, 31st Dec 2018 7:22 am 

    War, death, genocide is the way nature uses to rejuvenate itself. Human specie carries too much low quality genetic garbage. Think of Trudeau, Hillary, Macron and so on.

    There is no blind Lions and bears. Nature is now beginning to rectify the mistake that humans did. Nature will now killed the weak, infirm and other genetic garbage in a hope to set up the human race for a better future.

    Shit skin like Black, Arab, Indian and Chinese are the ones that nature will eliminate first because they are the more numerous and carry more genetic garbage.

  10. Cloggie on Mon, 31st Dec 2018 9:12 am 

    “War, death, genocide is the way nature uses to rejuvenate itself.”

    Or a holiday to Paris:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vrO3TfJc9Qw

  11. Anonymouse on Mon, 31st Dec 2018 3:14 pm 

    Yes, we need a new world war. The last one failed to extinguish cloggenfrauds tribe, and his own specific family line in a spectacular way, sadly. Second times the charm? Last time around, we didnt have the internet, so cloggenYid had time to actually run away to and join the jewish underground. This time, I think we can succeed where the previous generation failed.

    It should be a lot easier to nail his yid ass this time with a smart cluster-bomb. Or we could dial the ‘future’, and get them send us an anti-matter to stuff up cloggrahmans ass. Or maybe a death ray. Cant be using low-tech and primitive like a garden variety bomb on cloggedanus now that I think about it. He is what? pushing 90?, and is physically co-joined with his computer to the internet. He cant run this time, so yea, bring next world war on.

    And make sure you dont miss this time. We have GPS targeting and ‘smart’- bombs now. We cant fail. Unless the uS military is put in charge. Then we can fail. There’s a thought….

    PS: I really hope war, death and genocide get around to re-invigorating YOU, personally, cloggenanus. That would be awesome, and environmentally friendly too, since you wont be around to waste food, air and resources any longer. I dont have a link, dont need one. If war and genocide are good enough for ‘others’, then they should be more than adequate for you cloggenkike. Lead by example, and all that, right?

  12. makati1 on Mon, 31st Dec 2018 6:25 pm 

    GetA, your bigotry is blatant. I would say that skin color is not the deciding factor, nor is their geographic location. If you go by intelligence, Asians are above Caucasians. If you go by heat tolerance (warming climate) the darker skins have the advantage. If you go by the need to eat, we are all in trouble when the food starts to disappear. I doubt there will be any humans in 2100 of any color or race.

  13. makati1 on Mon, 31st Dec 2018 6:36 pm 

    Davy, I would recommend these three books if you can find them:

    “Alas Babylon” by Pat Frank 1959

    “Pulling Through” by Dean Ing 1983

    “Malevil” by Robert Merle 1972

    Fictional stories of living through a nuclear war that are fairly accurate and educational. The first two are centered in the US. The last is centered in France. They are in my library of originals and I reread them occasionally for ideas for preps. Duck and Cover! Have a good New Year in 2019.

  14. Admin on Mon, 31st Dec 2018 10:05 pm 

    A big shout out to Davy!

    Go job keeping it together for one entire day. A couple of little words of advise though:

    Try to keep your comments limited to a thousand words or less.

    Learn how to use paragraphs.

    Try not to use the words ‘me’, ‘my’, or ‘I’ in every sentence. It makes you sound like you think that you’re exceptional, and know more than everybody else.

    You aren’t, and you don’t.

    To everyone else,

    Happy New Year!

  15. Go Speed Racer on Tue, 1st Jan 2019 12:38 am 

    Happy New Year Clogster,
    and Theed-is-rich, and Admin, and Davy,

    Firecrackers, beer, and a tire-fire,
    over at my backyard, come on over!

    And right at midnight, we’re blowing up
    a plastic outhouse!

    Best Wishes for 2019 !

  16. Go Speed Racer on Tue, 1st Jan 2019 12:43 am 

    That’s some good grammer advice, Admin.

    A parallel one to not using “I”…
    When carefully constructing diplomatic
    sentences meant to get along smoothly…

    It’s to not use “You” in the sentence
    construction either.

    Some people are terrible in this. They
    say “You told me to change out the engine
    oil and now You say that the truck is needed
    on a run, so You should not give me
    instructions that are contradictory because
    that’s what You told me”.

    It turns out, for many personalities (not all)
    they don’t like to hear the word “you”.

    The more times that “you” is in the
    sentence, the more the other person hates
    your guts.

    This is a rather advanced trick in the
    working world. Like the above one, if he
    said 6 “You” words in speaking to his boss,
    the boss will hate his guts.

    Some of the corporate freaks are obsessed
    with this and they wont let anybody climb
    the ladder who uses “you” in sentence
    construction. Indeed they will jump up
    and down on your knuckles until you fall off.

    I myself don’t agree with it, I never thought
    it shoudl matter one way or the other.
    but I learned about this after having
    already worked 25 years, and I found it to
    be exactly how i described it.

    Yes minimize usage of words like “I, me, you”. Figure out ways to use “we, our” etc.

    It seems impossible to re-construct the
    sentences without using “you” but for the
    most part it is possible. Comes with practice.

    Didn’t say I agree with it, just saying that it is so.

  17. the virginian on Tue, 1st Jan 2019 8:59 am 

    Surprised no one here seems to even THINK about how about 300 Nuclear reactors on 120 sites will melt down after a Nuclear war, making North America a dead zone.

    Please don’t let politicians sucker us into a nuclear war, there will be no winners…even if you have a 10 foot deep shelter and food / water, you will not thrive or survive.

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