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Worshipping the Overshoot Predator

Re: Worshipping the Overshoot Predator

Unread postby Ibon » Thu 04 Dec 2014, 19:20:14

Newfie wrote:I've come to the conclusion that humanity is its own OP. We will die at our own hand. Sorta like suicide by Cop, but on a global scale.


Humans created the surplus of fossil fuels and then the consumption that followed so yes in that sense you are right.

Look at the long drawn out debate over on the Overpopulation is Tabu thread where Montequest states that we are not unique and are just like any other organism in reference to overshoot, like yeast for example, and Kublikhan comes up with all these social carrying capacity arguments that we aren't like yeast.

Well in one sense Kublikhan is actually right, humans are not like yeast because humans created the surplus in fossil fuels whereas yeast don't create the surplus when they colonize an energy source like sugar.
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Re: Worshipping the Overshoot Predator

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 04 Dec 2014, 19:37:07

We didn't create the surplus, we just figured out how to tap it.
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Re: Worshipping the Overshoot Predator

Unread postby Ibon » Thu 04 Dec 2014, 21:14:16

Newfie wrote:We didn't create the surplus, we just figured out how to tap it.
Yes that's right. What I really meant was that we discovered and then exploited it, unlike yeast whose spores through dispersal passively land on sugar.

Discovering and exploiting is human agency. That is what we often glorify and consider exceptional about our species. What Kubli likes to remind us. The tragedy of our generation and recent generations is that, through our hubris, we allowed human agency to temporarily circumvent and ignore natural boundaries by eliminating our predators and producing huge amounts of food with the use of fossil fuels and by complete domination of landscapes. We have become culturally habituated to seeing this human agency as above and beyond the rules of ecology. That is the current cultural inertia.

And that cultural inertia is as finite as the drawing down of fossil fuels.

The Overshoot Predator will shift the gears in reverse and human agency will change from being temporarily dominant over ecological principals to becoming subservient to the consequences. That is what I mean when I say we have forfeited human agency in being able to solve the problem and we have by default surrendered solutions over to the agency of consequences. (i.e. Montequest's frequent reference that we will either solve overpopulation by design or default).

The OP is all about bringing back the historical balance of our place in natural ecosystems. Humans have always been a keystone species that have played a major role in the ecosystems we have inhabited. It is only recently that we have become a parasite on our planet.

We actually were already somewhat exceptional even before we had the hubris to believe that we were beyond the laws of ecology.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keystone_species

A keystone species is a species that has a disproportionately large effect on its environment relative to its abundance.[1] Such species are described as playing a critical role in maintaining the structure of an ecological community, affecting many other organisms in an ecosystem and helping to determine the types and numbers of various other species in the community.
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Re: Worshipping the Overshoot Predator

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sun 30 Oct 2016, 19:18:42

Funny thing is in Europe circa 1700 they had done a lot to adapt to a reasonably dense renewable energy only population. For example, wood lots were in two vasic forms, coppiced trees for fuel sources, and carefully matured trees for lumber sources.

Lack of fossil fuels kept them from exploiting much steam, but it did limit their population density. When the oil runs short the population will have to contract unless a viable substitute is found PDQ.
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Re: Worshipping the Overshoot Predator

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 30 Oct 2016, 19:38:56

Subjectivist wrote:Funny thing is in Europe circa 1700 they had done a lot to adapt to a reasonably dense renewable energy only population. For example, wood lots were in two vasic forms, coppiced trees for fuel sources, and carefully matured trees for lumber sources.

Lack of fossil fuels kept them from exploiting much steam, but it did limit their population density. When the oil runs short the population will have to contract unless a viable substitute is found PDQ.

Have you figured into that a maximum output from renewable sources?
Panels on every roof and a wind tower on every ridge might allow a population somewhere between where we are now and the 1900 levels. Not sure what number exactly but in that range.
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Re: Worshipping the Overshoot Predator

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sun 30 Oct 2016, 20:27:02

vtsnowedin wrote:
Subjectivist wrote:Funny thing is in Europe circa 1700 they had done a lot to adapt to a reasonably dense renewable energy only population. For example, wood lots were in two vasic forms, coppiced trees for fuel sources, and carefully matured trees for lumber sources.

Lack of fossil fuels kept them from exploiting much steam, but it did limit their population density. When the oil runs short the population will have to contract unless a viable substitute is found PDQ.

Have you figured into that a maximum output from renewable sources?
Panels on every roof and a wind tower on every ridge might allow a population somewhere between where we are now and the 1900 levels. Not sure what number exactly but in that range.


The number based on just renewable wind and solar is hard to calculate, both require an advanced technology base just to maintain the power sources. The more energy diverted from supplying basic necessities to the population to maintaining that high technology from a limited resource the lower the total population can be. If the power is supplied by hydroelectric that would allow for a bigger surplus and nuclear would be even better because the eroei is much better than that for wind or solar.

The issue is, those renweable plus fission need to be built now before our fossil supplies start running too low.
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Re: Worshipping the Overshoot Predator

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 20 Nov 2017, 15:15:51

Thought I would put this here as it all ties into a vast reduction in our numbers
Which in the final analysis or long term is good
https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... te-change/
Records from Ancient China Reveal Link Between Epidemics and Climate Change
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Re: Worshipping the Overshoot Predator

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 21 Nov 2017, 13:16:03

I forgot about this little tidbit that I referred to above, so I was thinking probably others had, too.

Maybe we should indeed 'carpe diem' in the face of carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE)! 8O

Superbug From India Resistant to All Known Antibiotics

A woman in the US died after being infected by a superbug during her visit to India, say doctors who found that the ‘nightmare’ bacteria was resistant to all available antibiotics.

The infection was caused by carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE), a multidrug-resistant organism associated with high mortality.


Soooo, kinda like ebola, but there's nothing that works against it. Hmmmmmm....
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Re: Worshipping the Overshoot Predator

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 21 Nov 2017, 13:43:17

dohboi wrote:
Soooo, kinda like ebola, but there's nothing that works against it. Hmmmmmm....


I see no threat here since MBS has not yet made 1000 hysterical posts on this new potential pandemic
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Re: Worshipping the Overshoot Predator

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 21 Nov 2017, 13:50:42

How about 30 meter storm waves on top of 9 meter sea level rise?

https://skepticalscience.com/video-clim ... torms.html
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Re: Worshipping the Overshoot Predator

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 21 Nov 2017, 13:58:26

dohboi wrote:How about 30 meter storm waves on top of 9 meter sea level rise?

https://skepticalscience.com/video-clim ... torms.html


surfs up dudes.
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Re: Worshipping the Overshoot Predator

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 21 Nov 2017, 14:03:01

That would be a job for 'Super Surfer'!!

https://lockstepandgone.deviantart.com/ ... r-30009383
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Re: Worshipping the Overshoot Predator

Unread postby Ibon » Sun 23 Sep 2018, 18:41:58

Image

So it will be.
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Re: Worshipping the Overshoot Predator

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 23 Sep 2018, 18:54:19

Ibon wrote:Image

So it will be.


Perhaps not.

The bears are just as unlikely to survive the coming mass extinction event as humans are.

Cheers!
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Re: Worshipping the Overshoot Predator

Unread postby Ibon » Sun 23 Sep 2018, 20:03:05

Plantagenet wrote:
Ibon wrote:Image

So it will be.


Perhaps not.

The bears are just as unlikely to survive the coming mass extinction event as humans are.

Cheers!


Metaphors dont die Plant......
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Re: Worshipping the Overshoot Predator

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 24 Sep 2018, 01:11:20

Plenty of bears up there in Alaska, Plant. The last of them will probably dine on your femur before they too go extinct. I'm sure you'll blame Obama for it but nobody will be there to hear it let alone care.

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Re: Worshipping the Overshoot Predator

Unread postby vox_mundi » Wed 03 Oct 2018, 11:24:22

Watching a Friend Get Eaten Could Help Animals Humans Learn to Stay Alive

In a fenced enclosure amid the red-orange sand and sparse vegetation of remote New South Wales, newly released burrowing bettongs—small marsupials that look like a mix between a rat and a miniature kangaroo—used to spend their time blithely lounging around. They were so naive that they approached humans without hesitation and kept their heads down as they ate. “They showed absolutely zero vigilance behavior,” potentially making them easy meals for feral cats and other predators, says ecologist Rebecca West at the University of New South Wales.

A year later bettongs in the same community made a fast exit when humans—or cats—approached, and monitored their surroundings while eating. The difference? These tiny marsupials had been to predator boot camp.

This tough-love training is part of a new approach that incorporates predator-prey relationships into conservation efforts—including those aimed at rebuilding populations of native Australian mammals decimated by the cats, foxes and rabbits that European settlers introduced. Animals for such efforts come from isolated or captive populations, so they do not grow up learning to recognize predators or predatory behaviors. This so-called prey naivete makes them easy pickings when they are released into the wild, or even into semi-wild enclosures, in the case of the bettongs. Previous studies have found survival rates as low as 11 percent for captive-bred marsupials such as these when they are introduced into the wild.

Doesn't always work, sometimes.

Image

Humans are kinda like this.

... “Never forget the importance of history. To know nothing of what happened before you took your place on earth, is to remain a child for ever and ever.”

... Don't forget that in the history of the world, there was a plebiscite, in which Christ and Barabbas were being judged, and the people chose Barabbas.

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“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late.
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Re: Worshipping the Overshoot Predator

Unread postby Ibon » Sun 28 Oct 2018, 13:12:54

vox_mundi wrote:Watching a Friend Get Eaten Could Help Animals Humans Learn to Stay Alive

In a fenced enclosure amid the red-orange sand and sparse vegetation of remote New South Wales, newly released burrowing bettongs—small marsupials that look like a mix between a rat and a miniature kangaroo—used to spend their time blithely lounging around. They were so naive that they approached humans without hesitation and kept their heads down as they ate. “They showed absolutely zero vigilance behavior,” potentially making them easy meals for feral cats and other predators, says ecologist Rebecca West at the University of New South Wales.

A year later bettongs in the same community made a fast exit when humans—or cats—approached, and monitored their surroundings while eating. The difference? These tiny marsupials had been to predator boot camp.

This tough-love training is part of a new approach that incorporates predator-prey relationships into conservation efforts—including those aimed at rebuilding populations of native Australian mammals decimated by the cats, foxes and rabbits that European settlers introduced. Animals for such efforts come from isolated or captive populations, so they do not grow up learning to recognize predators or predatory behaviors. This so-called prey naivete makes them easy pickings when they are released into the wild, or even into semi-wild enclosures, in the case of the bettongs. Previous studies have found survival rates as low as 11 percent for captive-bred marsupials such as these when they are introduced into the wild.

Doesn't always work, sometimes.

Image

Humans are kinda like this.

... “Never forget the importance of history. To know nothing of what happened before you took your place on earth, is to remain a child for ever and ever.”

... Don't forget that in the history of the world, there was a plebiscite, in which Christ and Barabbas were being judged, and the people chose Barabbas.

- Augusto Pinochet - Speech in October 25, 1988.



Your post does have relevance. Those naive marsupials that went through predator boot camp are similar to the 7 billion humans who have for several generations become equally naive to the agents that historically kept our population within carrying capacity.

So when those forces re emerge in the form of consequences of overshoot we will collectively also experience predator boot camp. It is at that late date that we will develop defensive prey strategies against the forces that allowed the predators to emerge. Maybe. OR perhaps we will not.

Just as a reminder those predatory agents of the Overshoot Predator are disease, famine, viruses, bacteria, malnutrition, poor sanitation allowing cholera and other diseases of crowded civilization. Climate change induced crop failures, virulent strains of the flue virus. We do not need anything exotic like ebola to bring this on. That might however be part of the mix. All of the above aggravated by war and tribalism.

But despair not. Resilient populations will be paying attention and like those marsupials this predator boot camp will give rise to a more resilient society. Maybe. Or Maybe not.
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Re: Worshipping the Overshoot Predator

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 28 Oct 2018, 13:20:56

Everyday Survival by Laurence Gonzales disscusses this in some detail, a slightly different slant. He more or less explains how we will fail due to climate change if nothing else. He calls it a “vacation state of mind.” “Nothing could go wrong here, I’m on vacation. Gee look honey, the water is pulling back exposing lots of little fishes, let’s go look.”
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Re: Worshipping the Overshoot Predator

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 28 Oct 2018, 13:34:03

Well, it looks like the Overshoot Predator is on the prowl in certain countries. Utilizing its deadly arsenal
Yemen at risk of third cholera epidemic, health officials warn

https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/03/middleea ... index.html
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