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Worshipping the Overshoot Predator

Re: Worshipping the Overshoot Predator

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 04 Oct 2014, 19:23:31

Pops,

Agreed you can't fight it. But you can prepare to avoid it.

And I don't deal in the doubleing times and all that for the simple reason that I've yet to see a consistent and verifiable set of numbers to base any thing on.

My humble, but fixed, opinion is.... We don't know shit, one way or the other.
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Re: Worshipping the Overshoot Predator

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 04 Oct 2014, 23:19:28

"We don't know shit, one way or the other."

I would modify that to say, "We know less and less accurate shit by the day."

It's pretty clear that, when we were getting earlier regular reports, even if they were underestimations of the figures, they were likely more or less consistent underestimations--we could get a good sense of the tragic trajectory of the thing, if not its exact scope.

Now there seems to be no pattern, and there's good reason to believe, based on the total overwhelming of nearly all treatment centers, especially in Liberia, that the numbers have departed even from being a dim reflection of reality.

Anyway, that's my take on where we are as far as what we may or may not know. Generally, all signs point to things being much, much worse than any official numbers.
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Re: Worshipping the Overshoot Predator

Unread postby Ibon » Sun 05 Oct 2014, 07:08:07

Pops wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote: being scared of it does not give people any means of fighting it.


You can't fight it.

The only way to fight when you can't win is to avoid the fight altogether, that is what fear is made for. It is called the fight or flight response for a reason. You don't think only panty-waist libruls experience fear do ya? LOL


We have a unique situation today in the world where collectively we know we are treading on thin ice and so we can watch how threats that rise to the surface and get traction can start to create this great upswelling of fear. ISIS, Ebola, climate change, financial collapse, these are just a few of the most recent ones that come to mind.

We know the term there is nothing to fear but fear itself. It is before the crisis actually occurs that fear is at its maximum. So this is a fear of anticipation. This is what we have with ebola now except for those living the horror in Africa.

This fear of anticipation is heightened because we all know that we are passing each day going deeper and deeper into the quagmire of overshoot and so mixed with the fear of anticipation is a perverse desire to "pop the pimple", to have an event occur that acts as a pressure release.

This becomes a dominant narrative in the head and it certainly does affect objectivity. What also affects objectivity is when Pop's thinks of his grandaughter or when I think of my daughter in Nepal right now, the thought of a disease or calamity affecting our loved ones has a profound affect on our objectivity. I find mysef for example having to contain the contradiction of welcoming the consequences on one hand to finally begin as the necesarry teaching tool that I know our culture requires at the same time as I am praying that this ebola is contained to Africa when I think that of my daughter at the moment vulnerable in central asia if it would spread there.

We all live to a lesser or greater degree by trying to contain these contradictions. For me anyway, overriding even the paternal instinct to want to protect my offspring is the understanding that this is futile and that another orientation is required, one that begins to see the world much like our ancestors did who lived in times when famine and disease was a regular occurance and not some anticipated fear.

For in those times life was tenuous, life was precious and in the middle of uncertainties there was poignant celebration and joy.

We forget something. When you are in the middle of crisis, living it as a reality, we tend to step up to the plate with much dignity and strength. We are the least dignified and the most cowardly when from a secure place we allow an anticipated fear to dominate. That is exactly where our global civilization is right now at this moment. Perversely, this is another reason why I worship the Overshoot Predator.

It would be great to see once again our collective global culture moving from a more dignified place, from within a crisis, from a place of less certainty, less arrogance, more appreciative of the impermanence of this life. For at the moment we are much much more resembling little mice, fearful of the shadow of a hawk or a fox, jumping in panic when the wind moves a twig.

Another one of those paradoxes is the deep transformative nature of humility. When external events can no longer be dominated or controlled then we will be humbled. And in that humility is great strength. Compare that to where we are right now. At the precipice of a dying paradigm where we have great control and hubris that we can continue to dominate our planet. From this hubris we display the most fear and the least dignified behavior. Anticipating all kinds of calamities. The saying there is nothing to fear but fear itself has perhaps never been more relevant than in todays world.

One last thought. Yes, we are not objective in our fears at the moment. But we are smart enough to know that of the many shadows that currently frighten us one of them one day soon will manifest into a solid event.

When it does embrace it, worship it, for once we are in it we will be given the first opportunity in a long time to prove our merit, our dignity, our strength. It will also provide a much needed appreciation of the importance of balance.

We are a frightened unbalanced collective at the moment.
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Re: Worshipping the Overshoot Predator

Unread postby Pops » Sun 05 Oct 2014, 09:49:28

(This rant is more than I'd expected to write this morning so my apologies in advance. It's mostly just talking to myself so feel free to ignore me, LOL)

I don't welcome The Great Pruning, or hope for a boogieman by another name to replace Beelzebub to put us in our place. I'd much rather there be a true great awakening in which human-centric mysticism is overthrown and reverence for the natural is practiced. The Clan of the Cave Bear would still fight the Totem of the Wolf with IEDs and weaponized [insert NSA tripwire here] but neither would think they were to be rewarded variously with virgins or gold in the afterlife. They would pray for strength and courage to protect their stuff and people but wouldn't pretend the spirit in the sky was on their side.
--

I'm pretty sure that many of the folks who frequent these boards constitute a type of armageddon watch group. I fall into that category in some random degree, the intensity varying depending on Google news, the rain gauge and the pantry level. Typically I find myself arguing with folks wearing rose tinted shades in one thread and gas masks and flak vests in another. I can't figure out if I'm just a contrarian who likes to argue or actually more moderate than I think I am, LOL
--

Ibon you said above that I am proceeding to reinvent myself, I hadn't thought of it as just that but I guess it fits because that comment has been rattling around in the wide open space of my cranium. It's been 5 years since I developed type I diabetes and I've come to look on that as the end of my natural life. I now survive via recombinant DNA technology rather than homegrown tomatoes. I was a sick pup, the doc said he'd seen 2 people with higher blood sugar levels and they were both dead at the time. I waited too long out of habit, I just don't run to the doc in for every little thing. But then I got sicker fast and being uninsured (and a little loopy perhaps) decided I had a bad cancer and treatment would just burn assets to no good effect.

I bring it up because I find I have less fear and find I'm somewhat less obsessed with preparing for catastrophe (though that description may be too strong). Don't get me wrong on this, I was a prepper before prepping was cool and actually enjoy learning historical and "modern" methods of low tech living, it is something I've always done even as a kid. Nothing new or newsworthy, I really just kept up some of the ways of my parents and grandparents. No militia/armageddon/rapture/anti-government overtones, just simple non-monetary saving for a rainy day with rainy day technology. My first 5 years here I posted mostly in the PFTF forum because aside from just a hobby, prepping – doing something – is my knee-jerk response to the fear and uncertainty you describe.

So then, having mentioned before that my greatest fear is becoming a refugee (obviously more leftovers from my ancestors experience in the depression) comes the surprise that marital obligations dictate I abandon the farm and move 1,500 miles. Of course, my initial response was grieving (in all it's phases LOL) over all my lost plans, being uprooted from my safe zone. I've seriously agonized over the next move but finally settled on a slate wiper of my own, divesting myself of my little cocoon of stuff. I've decided, as you intuited Ibon, to reinvent myself at least to an extent.

So trying to finally bring this back around to the topic, fear is a great motivator (it is one of the best tools the big-time evil ad agencies employ, LOL) but fear without understanding can be paralysing. Fear is the tool of the self appointed, self serving mystics, those enforcers of the All Seeing One. As well, the equally power seeking defenders of the Homeland (I hate that Orwellian word). It is the drug of choice of do-nothing hand-wringers that modern society has made of us all, huddling around our digital campfire whispering about the boogieman out in the dark.

We don't need a new boogieman, we need to understand the dark
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Re: Worshipping the Overshoot Predator

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 05 Oct 2014, 11:40:28

"collectively we know we are treading on thin ice"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XTc3hIEPTyo

In general, nice reflection, Ibon. Except that I get the strong impression that the people in the middle of the Ebola crisis are even more firmly in the grips of fear than the rest of us. A growing problem, for example, is Ebola orphans--kids of various ages whose parents have died of the disease and who have no one to care for them. There is a strong ethic in the area that when parents die, one or another relative will take on the orphaned children. But this ethic has broken down almost completely, as people don't want to bring kids into their homes who may pass on Ebola to their own families.

Now perhaps you mean that this is at least a more realistic fear than suburbanites in Sheboygan (or wherever) worrying themselves sick about a disease that is mostly confined right now to countries many thousands of miles away. But it is still fear. And after 21 days, it is unrealistic fear, too.

Pops wrote: "fear without understanding can be paralysing."
and:
"We don't need a new boogieman, we need to understand the dark"

What ever happened to 'quote of the day' 'cause those two certainly would get my vote!
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Re: Worshipping the Overshoot Predator

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 05 Oct 2014, 16:24:14

Very nice series of posts. It's really great to hear folks talk deeply of themselves in such a straight forward manner.

This forum may never recover from the shock!

MAY this forum never recover from the shock!
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Re: Worshipping the Overshoot Predator

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 05 Oct 2014, 20:19:58

Wonderful post Ibon and also Pops. My view is that FEAR is the most reasonable of responses but the most base and selfish. We can face doom in one of two ways with fear and denial OR with acceptance and fortitude. To accept does NOT mean to give up , it means we understand how precarious our situation is, as you stated Ibon with some humility. Yet we can always maintain hope, courage and strength not only for ourselves but for others. It ultimately is a decision. Fight or Flight. I myself wish to fight my fear and keep hope alive always until I exist this existence. It really is not that difficult because I have faith, faith in humans , faith in God and faith in an afterlife. That maybe can be encompassed with faith in the FUTURE.
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Re: Worshipping the Overshoot Predator

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 05 Oct 2014, 20:48:28

onlooker wrote:Wonderful post Ibon and also Pops. My view is that FEAR is the most reasonable of responses but the most base and selfish. We can face doom in one of two ways with fear and denial OR with acceptance and fortitude. To accept does NOT mean to give up , it means we understand how precarious our situation is, as you stated Ibon with some humility. Yet we can always maintain hope, courage and strength not only for ourselves but for others. It ultimately is a decision. Fight or Flight. I myself wish to fight my fear and keep hope alive always until I exist this existence. It really is not that difficult because I have faith, faith in humans , faith in God and faith in an afterlife. That maybe can be encompassed with faith in the FUTURE.

People react to fear in different ways. Some dissolve into a quivering mass where the mind runs endless loops and the only physical response is to run away or to stand wailing. This is commonly called hysterics or hysterical. On the other end of the spectrum are those that see a danger and are fearful only for what that danger might do to their family or community. If they fear for themselves it is for the fact that if they die their family will not have them to provide for them. These types tend to take the best information available to them and act on it in ways conducive to the survival of their interest group. They would turn away a suspected ebola victim rather then let him come in contact with his family, shoot the victim even , if necessary to keep him out of contact. This is fear but it is logical. In between we find mothers that will respond to a threat to their children with violence far beyond what a creature that size should be able to summon.
Let's hope that reasonable fear of this threat can be harnessed to get effective measures in place before we lose millions.
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Re: Worshipping the Overshoot Predator

Unread postby ennui2 » Mon 06 Oct 2014, 13:34:39

Go back a few years and people here were predicting mega-doom over avian flu. Plus we had the mega-volcano scare and fukushima that was supposed to do us in. Then anytime a gun goes off in the world it's supposed to usher in WWIII armageddon. I've learned to moderate my knee-jerk doomer response to events like these on the world stage. They never get as bad as doomers predict. Doomers tend to have a short-term memory about these things, and just move on to the next source of existential anxiety to get their fix. But I see the pattern and factor that into how I weigh these threats.

As dysfunctional as BAU is, the fact is that our ability to communicate and coordinate responses to things like pandemics is greater than it has ever been in the history of mankind. That these things so often get their start in 3rd world hell-holes is one thing, but we always seem to stamp it out before it's causing a zombie panic in Main Street USA. And we had one Ebola patient come through Massachusetts without winding up on my doorstep, which in large part is due to the fact that Massachusetts has some of the best hospitals in the world.

I only come here and skim every now and then but it sounds like Pops had to leave the farm? Pops was always the poster-child for doomer perfection in my eyes, with his "make a plan and work it" ethos. I'm not surprised, though, to hear that the best laid plans of mice and men have gone astray. That's life. My motto is something more akin to "there's more to life than survival". Kind of a variation on the Braveheart "All men die. Not all men really live." The other motto, a variation of carpe diem comes from Kung Fu Panda, although it in turn was copped from something older:

"Yesterday is history, tomorrow is a mystery, but today is a gift, that's why it is called the Present."

I don't think it's the first time I've dropped that quote in here, but it deserves being repeated.

Playing doom like a game to make it through the bottleneck might make some people happy, but not me, even though I do have a child to look after. Once you submit to the inevitability that our lives are more than being simple evolutionary "survival machines" then doom becomes a little easier to accept.
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Re: Worshipping the Overshoot Predator

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 06 Oct 2014, 17:22:32

Yes Ennui, I agree that to dwell on the finality of existence on this earth and of disasters of all kinds is at best useless and at worse very unnerving. However, my particular focus is the the process and experiencing it with the good and bad that entails. Meaning finding positive meaning from the "situation" we find ourselves in currently on Earth. I do NOT dwell on death and destruction and such. I try and enjoy what I can from each day while attending to the mundane matters of existence. I do have an optimistic attitude towards the future and that is what I most rely on during whatever life may bring my way.
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Re: Worshipping the Overshoot Predator

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 07 Oct 2014, 20:22:21

I thought some might appreciate some of these.

http://www.theguardian.com/vital-signs/ ... ing-videos

The way it's phrased one can almost hear the OP talking.

P.S. better link

http://natureisspeaking.org/mothernature.html
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Re: Worshipping the Overshoot Predator

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 07 Oct 2014, 20:57:23

Yes Ennui, I agree that to dwell on the finality of existence on this earth and of disasters of all kinds is at best useless and at worse very unnerving. However, my particular focus is the the process and experiencing it with the good and bad that entails. Meaning finding positive meaning from the "situation" we find ourselves in currently on Earth. I do NOT dwell on death and destruction and such. I try and enjoy what I can from each day while attending to the mundane matters of existence. I do have an optimistic attitude towards the future and that is what I most rely on during whatever life may bring my way.


Maybe.

On the other hand, most people spend their lives running away from pain and trying to turn away from seeing all the likely bad consequences of our actions; yet pain and consequences find them anyway.

I think the ideal balance is neither running away from it nor 'running toward it,' rather sitting rather meditatively with it.

(Sorry, Newf--I couldn't get past the "Julia Roberts is Mother Nature" title in my mood tonight. I'll come back to it later. May be a way to connect students to the issues, perhaps.)
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Re: Worshipping the Overshoot Predator

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 07 Oct 2014, 21:26:24

Yeah. But better than it sounds.
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Re: Worshipping the Overshoot Predator

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 22 Oct 2014, 20:10:27

ennui2 wrote: And it REALLY pissed people off that I pulled that prank, but what I was actually doing was mocking the views of Montequest who seemed to almost relish the "pathogens" but wouldn't come out and say it.


Infectious disease was our predator. Until germ theory, it ruled the landscape and kept our numbers in check. We did an end-run around nature's limiting mechanism with our hubris. Relish the return to the natural checks and balances of nature? Naw...but accept their return we must. It's the way the world works.
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Re: Worshipping the Overshoot Predator

Unread postby basil_hayden » Wed 22 Oct 2014, 20:29:22

Whoosh - it's MQ from out of the blue.
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Re: Worshipping the Overshoot Predator

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 22 Oct 2014, 20:38:53

Woah, dude!

4 new posts after ~ 4 years. We are honored!
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Re: Worshipping the Overshoot Predator

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 22 Oct 2014, 22:42:27

Thought I might drop in now and again. Spoke with Aaron today on the phone. He's doing well.
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Re: Worshipping the Overshoot Predator

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 22 Oct 2014, 23:12:07

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Re: Worshipping the Overshoot Predator

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 04 Dec 2014, 11:23:47

So if Ebola doesn't end up being the primary agent of the Overshoot Predator, perhaps these nasties will be:

A deadly epidemic that could have global implications is quietly sweeping India, and among its many victims are tens of thousands of newborns dying because once-miraculous cures no longer work.

These infants are born with bacterial infections that are resistant to most known antibiotics, and more than 58,000 died last year as a result, a recent study found. ...

....“Five years ago, we almost never saw these kinds of infections,” said Dr. Neelam Kler, chairwoman of the department of neonatology at New Delhi’s Sir Ganga Ram Hospital, one of India’s most prestigious private hospitals. “Now, close to 100 percent of the babies referred to us have multidrug resistant infections. It’s scary.”

These babies are part of a disquieting outbreak. A growing chorus of researchers say the evidence is now overwhelming that a significant share of the bacteria present in India — in its water, sewage, animals, soil and even its mothers — are immune to nearly all antibiotics......



http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/04/world ... .html?_r=0
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Re: Worshipping the Overshoot Predator

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 04 Dec 2014, 13:28:38

I've come to the conclusion that humanity is its own OP. We will die at our own hand. Sorta like suicide by Cop, but on a global scale.
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