Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

World’s oil supply gone by 2041, study says

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: World’s oil supply gone by 2041, study says

Unread postby aspera » Thu 18 Jan 2018, 18:25:35

Just as SOME crude oil will be available for many decades. Well beyond 2041.

Rock, I don't think that's the point to this website or even to this post. We can still buy buggy whips (https://smile.amazon.com/Intrepid-International-Driving-Whip-53-Inch/dp/B000FFDVLU/ref=sr_1_9?ie=UTF8&qid=1516313753&sr=8-9&keywords=buggy+whip But I doubt that is any consolation to the horse and buggy industry of just over a century ago. (If fact I can imagine that some manufacturers made much the same argument about future whip demand that you are making about future oil demand. But that missed the larger transition going on right in front of them.)

If liquid petroleum is the lifeblood of techno-industrial society, then wouldn't a descent to 30 mm bopd mean the end of that civilization?

We may be arguing the trajectory, timing or slope of the decent. But not whether it occurs this century (and perhaps in the lifetime of the folks here).
Oceans rise, empires fall. - Apocalypse Lullaby, Wailin' Jennys.
Plant a garden. Soon.
User avatar
aspera
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 182
Joined: Mon 28 Jul 2014, 17:22:49
Location: Lakeland Republic

Re: World’s oil supply gone by 2041, study says

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 19 Jan 2018, 00:25:24

aspera wrote:
Just as SOME crude oil will be available for many decades. Well beyond 2041.

Rock, I don't think that's the point to this website or even to this post. We can still buy buggy whips (https://smile.amazon.com/Intrepid-International-Driving-Whip-53-Inch/dp/B000FFDVLU/ref=sr_1_9?ie=UTF8&qid=1516313753&sr=8-9&keywords=buggy+whip But I doubt that is any consolation to the horse and buggy industry of just over a century ago. (If fact I can imagine that some manufacturers made much the same argument about future whip demand that you are making about future oil demand. But that missed the larger transition going on right in front of them.)

If liquid petroleum is the lifeblood of techno-industrial society, then wouldn't a descent to 30 mm bopd mean the end of that civilization?

We may be arguing the trajectory, timing or slope of the decent. But not whether it occurs this century (and perhaps in the lifetime of the folks here).

But it's not as if substitutes for the vast majority of the oil burned today don't exist. And if it gets scarce and thus very expensive, more substitutes will be viable.

So for transport, for example, in 30 years or so if oil is very expensive, BEV's will likely supplant the vast majority of them. Or NG vehicles. Or fuel cell vehicles. Or most likely, some variety of the above and more.

If oil becomes very dear, then it will ONLY be used for the petrochemicals/plastics that can't be readily substituted for at a moderate or even relatively high price. It might well be inconvenient, but I believe that as long as the end is gradual and obvious, entities like business and governments and even consumers will adapt. They won't like it in many cases, but that's one thing markets and economic pricing signals do -- they force people to adapt.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 9232
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 21:26:42

Previous

Return to Peak oil studies, reports & models

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 12 guests