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Re: World Grain Stocks Fall to 57 Days of Consumption

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 15 May 2007, 07:46:18

Pablo2079 wrote:I had heard that Corn Gluten can be used as a fertilizer, but it must be applied after the seeds germinate. I believe it is the active ingredient in some stuff called Preen that is used to stop weeds from germinating.

Not sure how plausible it would be to spread it after seeds have germinated though....


Its the scale , not the timing that is a killer. Lots of things are put on crops after germination, but to spread gluten as a weed inhibitor over a 100 acre plot (small by todays stabndards) you would probably need gluten from about 1000 acre's of corn.

Works great on flower beds when we have millions of tons of corn harvested every year, but to use it back on the fields? Totally impracticle due to scale issues. Add in the fact that when you are a little bit hungry you can eat and digest the stuff as food and in a food shortage future their won't be any to spare anyhow.
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Re: World Grain Stocks Fall to 57 Days of Consumption

Unread postby mgibbons19 » Tue 15 May 2007, 11:08:47

shortonoil wrote:Phebagirl, I have also heard that the heart land of the country, the Mid West, is in a very similar condition.


I can't speak for a farmer's perspective, but I am a midwesterner stuck on the east coast.

Driving through Nebraska, Iowa, MN, all the hills are crowned with light brown dirt. Meaning, at least to me, that the topsoil is gone at the tops of the hills.
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Re: World Grain Stocks Fall to 57 Days of Consumption

Unread postby No-Oil » Tue 15 May 2007, 14:40:50

Now some would call me a doomer, but I think you are missing some basic facts re oil & food. You need to look at the oil consumption rates for various things. There are limits & population groeth will be one of them either by natural selection of government decreee as per China a few years ago.

Rough Oil use percentages by sector;-
1. 60% Personal transport !
2. 35% Commercial transport, energy production & agri/chemical feedstock.
3. <5% Plastics feedstock

Notice that sector 1 is personal transport, that is primarily all the CARS in the world. These we can generally do without even in the USA when push comes to shove. Four people car sharing for essential journeys reduces oil consumption is sector 1 by 75%, or in other words doubles the fuel available to the other sectors !

This nonsense about the rich countries surviving is just that. There are not rich countries, there are those in western countries that think they are rich or at least better off than those poor souls in the developing world, but its only an illusion caused by the existance of the poor souls in the first place. By that I mean the west does not produce goods & the economy only grows because of the production in the cheaper labour areas of the world supplying the garbage that modern western society is gorging itself on.

So if those people die or the western people are forced not to drive & thus not to consume as they have to pay more for all energy sources & food is one of those, its the energy we run on. Then the party will be well & truly over, rich & poor countries will suffer in equal measure. The poor may die of hunger, but the "so called" rich will die of bankruptsy & loss of jobs. No more Wallmart if there's no more cheap goods ! No more truck distribution centres if theres no more Wallmart. No more truck manufacturing jobs if theres no haulage companies. No more mechanics or tyre companies if theres no trucks or cars, etc etc & the dominos fall.

Pheba says gardening takes alot of effort, I know this having weeded fields of cabbages as a teenager. But after the above there will be millions of willing farm workers. People with no homes, no jobs & empty bellies will work the land using the now plentiful oil based fertilisers just to get 3 square meals a day & a bunk house to sleep in, never mind pay !

The future is closer than the masses know & its not Star Trek !
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Re: World Grain Stocks Fall to 57 Days of Consumption

Unread postby Pops » Tue 15 May 2007, 15:52:36

SevenTen wrote:The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) says hay stocks are down 30 per cent on last year and are at their lowest level since 1950.


Down here in SW MO we had 2 dry summers, then 2 ice storms and snow and ice on the ground for a while last winter.

5 year-old round bales of hay looking like a flat tire after being piled outside with no cover all those years were selling for $65 in February - with only about 3 feet of the center edible and that only barely.

My 40 calves ate 4 big round bales when they couldn't get to grass then went back to stockpiled fescue.

Gotta change but we won’t till we must, then…
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Re: World Grain Stocks Fall to 57 Days of Consumption

Unread postby Gazzatrone » Tue 15 May 2007, 19:25:31

I live in London UK and have never seen cow here. But there's plenty of milk. Go figure.

Sorry been to the pub.
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Europe // Germany grain - food in strong decline 7-10% 2007

Unread postby M_B_S » Wed 10 Oct 2007, 03:57:46

http://www.bmelv-statistik.de/data/0007 ... D816.0.pdf

:!:

Thesis:

Climate change and peak oil eats crop directly and indirectly

weaker input = weaker output

High prices for diesel / fertilizer / energy

Heat waves and floodings

=>peak food?
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Re: Europe // Germany grain - food in strong decline 7-10% 2

Unread postby NTBKtrader » Wed 10 Oct 2007, 04:02:34

It's in German jackass. We all appreciate Duetschland but for ffs translate the fucken doc for us.
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Re: Europe // Germany grain - food in strong decline 7-10% 2

Unread postby M_B_S » Wed 10 Oct 2007, 05:09:35

NTBKtrader wrote:It's in German jackass. We all appreciate Duetschland but for ffs translate the fucken doc for us.


:roll:

YEAH

EU speaks writes in english german france spanish polish etc...



http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/index_en.htm

http://statistics.defra.gov.uk/esg/statnot/agri.asp

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal ... ema=PORTAL

UK harvest hit by flooding this summer!

http://www.fao.org/docrep/010/ah873e/ah873e05.htm

http://www.fao.org/docrep/010/ah873e/ah873e04.htm
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Re: Europe // Germany grain - food in strong decline 7-10% 2

Unread postby Micki » Wed 10 Oct 2007, 05:11:36

I understand some German.. and I think it is trying to tell us.., we're fucked....except India and China who will rule the world.
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Re: Europe // Germany grain - food in strong decline 7-10% 2

Unread postby Concerned » Wed 10 Oct 2007, 09:03:23

Micki wrote:I understand some German.. and I think it is trying to tell us.., we're fucked....except India and China who will rule the world.


China and India will be royally screwed on the back of Peak Oil.

Too many people to little farm land. Economic miracle be damned.
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Re: Europe // Germany grain - food in strong decline 7-10% 2

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Wed 10 Oct 2007, 11:10:56

Concerned wrote:
Micki wrote:I understand some German.. and I think it is trying to tell us.., we're fucked....except India and China who will rule the world.


China and India will be royally screwed on the back of Peak Oil.

Too many people to little farm land. Economic miracle be damned.


Especially when you consider that it is the energy intensive green revolution which is allowing them (for now) to keep up with their food needs
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Re: Europe // Germany grain - food in strong decline 7-10% 2

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Wed 10 Oct 2007, 11:34:51

As a side note, fertilizers are not made from crude oil, they are produced using natural gas. I'm not sure who came up with this myth of "Oil Based Fertilizers" but it is simply not accurate.

Corn Grower's Association Whining About High Fertilizer Prices

Crude oil might be in short supply but natural gas is not.

Moreover, natural gas is often used for non-fertilizer purposes that would not be profitable at higher price levels.

Image

There's a chart showing California's natural gas usage.

Surely California could convert some of the gas wasted on electrical generation into producing fertilizer.

As natural gas prices increases, food prices will increase (fertilizer--->food).

However, the increase in electricity prices will not be as dramatic as the increase in food (compare your electric bill to your food bill...).

Thus, natural gas will no longer be cost competitive in the electricity market, freeing up gas for the fertilizer market.

Basically, I'm not worried about a shortage of natural gas based fertilizer causing disaster.

Moreover, the data that I see in one of those links indicates that grain production in the low income countries actually increased 1% last year.

Lastly, agriculture is about as far from a free market as you can possibly get thanks to trade barriers, quotas, subsidies, direct payments, etc.

However, I do agree that food--->fuel is a bad idea.
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Re: Europe // Germany grain - food in strong decline 7-10% 2

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Wed 10 Oct 2007, 13:25:59

As a side note, fertilizers are not made from crude oil, they are produced using natural gas. I'm not sure who came up with this myth of "Oil Based Fertilizers" but it is simply not accurate.

Corn Grower's Association Whining About High Fertilizer Prices


1. yes you are right fertlizers are made from natural gas.

2. but there is still reason to worry:

[web]http://www.pastpeak.com/archives/2005/06/exxon_natural_g.htm[/web]

and

[web]http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/11/27/61031/618[/web]

Now this does not need to be a problem in the next few years but we still have a real problem. A problem of what gets cut first, a problem that creates winners and losers and is a great atmosphere for disgruntled losers to act out. Again as it has been discussed in the starving metaphor thread, we may not feel the brunt of that squeeze first. We have options that India and China do not.

Because the world is not going to end tomorrow (knocks on wood) does not mean that there is not a long term problem which will lead to a reversal of the green revolution.
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Re: Europe // Germany grain - food in strong decline 7-10% 2

Unread postby M_B_S » Wed 10 Oct 2007, 14:28:11

Tyler_JC wrote:As a side note, fertilizers are not made from crude oil, they are produced using natural gas. I'm not sure who came up with this myth of "Oil Based Fertilizers" but it is simply not accurate.

Corn Grower's Association Whining About High Fertilizer Prices

Crude oil might be in short supply but natural gas is not.

Moreover, natural gas is often used for non-fertilizer purposes that would not be profitable at higher price levels.

Image



There's a chart showing California's natural gas usage.

Surely California could convert some of the gas wasted on electrical generation into producing fertilizer.

As natural gas prices increases, food prices will increase (fertilizer--->food).

However, the increase in electricity prices will not be as dramatic as the increase in food (compare your electric bill to your food bill...).

Thus, natural gas will no longer be cost competitive in the electricity market, freeing up gas for the fertilizer market.

Basically, I'm not worried about a shortage of natural gas based fertilizer causing disaster.

Moreover, the data that I see in one of those links indicates that grain production in the low income countries actually increased 1% last year.

Lastly, agriculture is about as far from a free market as you can possibly get thanks to trade barriers, quotas, subsidies, direct payments, etc.

However, I do agree that food--->fuel is a bad idea.



Fertilizer is made from natural gas....yes! but in the US there isnt enough natural gas :!:

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2007/09/ ... 55761.html

NEW YORK -

Fertilizer maker Agrium Inc. said Tuesday it will close its nitrogen fertilizer operations in Kenai, Alaska, laying off 100 employees.

The company cited a shortage of natural gas supply. Agrium (nyse: AGU - news - people ) said it offered "competitive prices and incentives" to encourage development of natural gas supplies in Alaska's Cook Inlet, but was unable to do so. It purchased 53 billion cubic feet of natural gas in 2001, but this year could only purchase 10 billion cubic feet.
*************************************

West Europe is in strong Decline and Gasprom=Russia will be in 2010!

In Germany the natural gas price / kWh is allmost equal with oil price
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Re: Europe // Germany grain - food in strong decline 7-10% 2

Unread postby Micki » Wed 10 Oct 2007, 20:04:16

China and India will be royally screwed on the back of Peak Oil.

Too many people to little farm land. Economic miracle be damned.

Hey, no need to tell me. I just translated. :wink:
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Re: Europe // Germany grain - food in strong decline 7-10% 2

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Wed 10 Oct 2007, 20:47:27

Natural gas can't be transported across the ocean?

Image

The North American natural gas production decline = shortage of fertilizers argument doesn't work.

Saudi Arabia wants to convert some of its massive natural gas reserves into petrochemicals (read: fertilizers) to sell to American markets.

The natural gas rich countries are taking over the fertilizer business.

SAUDI ARABIA: Construction plans for proposed $330,000,000 fertilizer plant

SAFCO Building World's Biggest Fertilizer Plant

Granted, this will mean more jobs lost in the soon-to-be fertilizer importing nations and more trade deficits between Saudi Arabia and its trading partners, but we are not suddenly going to run out of fertilizer just because we don't have the gas to produce it in the West. (even though we have plenty of gas to produce it and will for many decades to come).

I'm not trying to hijack the thread, I'm merely arguing against the relationship between Peak Oil and Peak Food.

The situation in Europe can be traced to unusually dry weather, market meddling (thank you CAP), and the push for biofuels.

I believe that over time, the world will see the economic impossibility of ethanol and abandon the entire program. Either that, or consumer protest will force governments to abandon it.
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Re: Europe // Germany grain - food in strong decline 7-10% 2

Unread postby Micki » Wed 10 Oct 2007, 22:03:42

I'm not trying to hijack the thread, I'm merely arguing against the relationship between Peak Oil and Peak Food.


The relationship doesn't have to be entirely black or white.

First of all, with peak oil, transporting food and runnig agri business is becoming more expensive, so less of the food that is in the shops can be afforded.
In an extension this can lead to a negative cycle where expensive food isn't bought leading to farmers selling at loss, closing business or moving into something that can be produced cheaply.
In any case in the end there will be less to choose from.

Secondly, supply shortage of oil leads to higher demand for NG.
Given that Peak NG is only a few years after PO, we will see this further inflatting costs on food and at some point there will be competition for the NG for electricity etc. Especially from the European countries.

The trend therefore points towards higher costs and less selection and at some point less energy available for production.

If we can adjust to the changes by growing more locally/home it may not be as big of a problem as some think, but what is worrying is once again the lack of official debate about PO and it's possible impact, thus allowing people less time to adjust.
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wheat stockpiles to reach 59 year low

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Sat 13 Oct 2007, 10:37:09

cnn.money.com

NEW YORK (AP) -- U.S. wheat stockpiles may shrink to the lowest level in 59 years due to robust demand for the grain following two years of weak harvests worldwide, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said Friday in a report.

The USDA projects wheat supplies for the 2007-2008 crop year will fall to 307 million bushels, down 55 million bushels from its estimate last month, due to the fast pace of export shipments. Foreign appetite for the country's wheat has surged after poor weather damaged harvests around the world this year. Record high prices have done little to dampen demand.


And prices are "relatively" low when adjusted for inflation (like 1/3 of the late 70's early 80's.

If you are going to stockpile some I guess this is the time to do it. Once I get some routine maintance done to the TDI I guess I should finish buying what I was going to set aside.
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Re: wheat stockpiles to reach 59 year low

Unread postby roccman » Sat 13 Oct 2007, 11:13:05

I have noticed super pails on beprepared.com have gone up...also survival acres posted a couple weeks ago he will be jacking his prices 20-30%.

So I ask again- is it ok to go into debt buying food stores (and other preps) in light of hyperinflation?

I say categorically yes.

What is the downside...a trashed FICO...

What is the upside...you and your children get to eat.

Seems like a no brainer.
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Re: wheat stockpiles to reach 59 year low

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Sat 13 Oct 2007, 11:18:43

roccman wrote:I have noticed super pails on beprepared.com have gone up...also survival acres posted a couple weeks ago he will be jacking his prices 20-30%.

So I ask again- is it ok to go into debt buying food stores (and other preps) in light of hyperinflation?

I say categorically yes.

What is the downside...a trashed FICO...

What is the upside...you and your children get to eat.

Seems like a no brainer.


Depends on what you are buying. I have a grain mill and an arm to turn it with. I can get hard red winter wheat at ~10.00 per 50#. No need to go into debt. In a pinch I will make my own noodles, kill things for my own broth, use wild yeast for bread etc...

The hard thing would be to move teh animals off of their grain ration.

I need to build that barn to store hay in I guess.

btw welcome back rocc, I wondered where you went
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