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World Energy Scenarios 2016 - The Grand Transition

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

World Energy Scenarios 2016 - The Grand Transition

Unread postby vox_mundi » Tue 11 Oct 2016, 13:39:16

Forget 'Peak Oil': We could reach 'Peak Demand' for energy before 2030

A new report from the World Energy Council has found that per capita energy demand will peak in the next decade or so.

The report, launched at the 23rd World Energy Congress in Istanbul, states that "unprecedented efficiencies created by new technologies and more stringent energy policies" would see primary energy demand growth diminish and per capita energy demand peak before 2030.

World Energy Scenarios 2016 – The Grand Transition, was produced by the WEC "in collaboration" with Accenture Strategy and the Paul Scherrer Institute.

"It is clear that we are undergoing a Grand Transition, which will create a fundamentally new world for the energy industry," Ged Davis, executive chair of scenarios at the World Energy Council, said in a news release.

"Historically people have talked about Peak Oil but now disruptive trends are leading energy experts to consider the implications of Peak Demand," Davis added.

Three scenarios for the world's energy future were looked at. The WEC said its findings indicated, among other things, that demand for electricity would double by 2060; that the “phenomenal” growth of solar and wind energy is predicted to continue, while coal and oil will fade from the energy mix. Solar and wind accounted for 4% of power generation in 2014 but could supply up to 39% by 2060, while hydroelectric power and nuclear are also expected to grow.

"By 2060, all scenarios point to an increase in demand for gas, as well as a possible peak demand for oil within the 2035-2045 timeframe," Nuri Demirdoven, managing director at Accenture Strategy, said in the same news release.

"Misspending including misallocation of capital has always been a risk for energy assets, and will continue to grow due to fundamental shifts in the industry," Demirdoven added.

"Leading companies across all scenarios will be those that adapt quickly and take two urgent steps: rethink the balance of their energy portfolio, and utilize business and digital technologies to transform how they deliver work and organize and manage performance across their businesses."

Global demand for energy will peak in 2030, says World Energy Council

... Under two of the scenarios, oil production will peak in 2030 at between 94m barrels per day (bpd) and 103 mb/d, although the third scenario would see it peak and plateau at 104 m/bpd for a decade from 2040.

The council said moving from petrol cars to cheaper technologies such as electric vehicles would prove “one of the hardest obstacles to overcome” in efforts to decarbonise global energy use.

Oil powered 92% of vehicles in 2014, but that is expected to fall to between 78% and 60% as electric vehicles become more popular.

But the council warned that keeping global warming below 2Cwould require an “exceptional and enduring effort, far beyond already pledged commitments and with very high carbon prices”.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late.
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Re: World Energy Scenarios 2016 - The Grand Transition

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 11 Oct 2016, 15:01:26

vox_mundi wrote:Global demand for energy will peak in 2030, says World Energy Council

Oil powered 92% of vehicles in 2014, but that is expected to fall to between 78% and 60% as electric vehicles become more popular.
Given the growth in demand for cars/powered vehicles from the third world, how confident can we be that a reduction in the percentage of oil powered vehicles by (roughly) 20% means less net global demand for oil. The growth in motorized vehicle demand from just Chindia appears to be staggering.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: World Energy Scenarios 2016 - The Grand Transition

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 11 Oct 2016, 23:36:15

Still not clear how they distinguish consumption from demand but I see no distinction. If demand is what consumers WANT the demand is virtually limitless. If demand is what consumers can afford to buy the that would be consumption. So on to:

"and per capita energy demand peak before 2030." Seems like a safe bet since the global consumption of energy per capita has been on a fairly flat plateau for the last 35 years or so. Around 70 to 75 gigajoules per person. Perhaps an 7% to 10% increase the last 10 years. ... in-charts/

The US peaked in the 70's; the former Soviet Union about 1990; Europe flat for the last 30 years until a recent slight dip; China from very little in 1965 with a steady increase until 2002 when the rate of increase jumped up significantly. Unfortunately no separate stat for India.

Of course there's a bump up in oil consumption the last year or so. The current estimate for global population increase is around 1.2%/year. It would seem that increased energy production has kept up with population growth fairly well but has essentially been almost flat for decades. Except for China most of the world has already peaked at per capita consumption.

And the future? Can be modeled anyway you like. Just make assumptions about future fossil fuel production, alt energy growth and future population size. Time will tell which of those assumptions is correct. But given ff depletion, very slow alt growth and a so far continuing increase in the global population it isn't difficult to guess we are at or near peak energy consumption per capita today.
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