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Wind & Solar Are Wrong Path Pt. 1

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: Dr. Eugene Preston Explains Why 100% Renewable Energy Is

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 15 Oct 2017, 16:23:27

Another crappy troll post. Without concern for posters, moderators, the reputation of this entire web site and the decade of effort that has gone into making it the premier (the fillet) of peak-oil places to be

The thread title says it all:
" Dr. Eugene Preston Explains Why 100% Renewable Energy Is Unl "


Illiterate, impatient angry troll does not get to mess this place up.
Last edited by Tanada on Sun 15 Oct 2017, 21:35:14, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: removed commentary on Moderation of board.
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Re: Dr. Eugene Preston Explains Why 100% Renewable Energy Is

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 16 Oct 2017, 10:16:09

pstarr wrote:...decade of effort that has gone into making it the premier (the fillet) of peak-oil places to be


If this is the premiere (the fillet) of peak-oil places to be, then it speaks to how low the issue has sunk in the public psyche.

I mean, come on, man. This site has, what, a dozen active posters at most?

So please descend off your high-horse.
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Re: Dr. Eugene Preston Explains Why 100% Renewable Energy Is

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Mon 16 Oct 2017, 10:48:07

The subject line's number-of-characters limitation has bitten me in the past, sometimes injecting unintentional humor. But limiting the number of characters also speeds up searches.

AdamB is not really a newbie, as his second year will be complete on Dec 28. His only bad habit IMHO is he is not familiar with all that occurred before his registration in Dec 2015. He often posts on topics that have had multiple threads before, with nothing really new to add.

But he will learn to use search before posting a new thread. Help him out by linking to such, one of his Moderator functions is to merge threads.

The new thread activity is welcome. Sometimes a half day passes with no postings I wish to read.
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Re: Dr. Eugene Preston Explains Why 100% Renewable Energy Is

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 16 Oct 2017, 11:45:45

asg70 wrote:
pstarr wrote:...decade of effort that has gone into making it the premier (the fillet) of peak-oil places to be


If this is the premiere (the fillet) of peak-oil places to be, then it speaks to how low the issue has sunk in the public psyche.

I mean, come on, man. This site has, what, a dozen active posters at most?

So please descend off your high-horse.

WE are are the best then they're is all the rest :lol: :lol:
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Re: Dr. Eugene Preston Explains Why 100% Renewable Energy Is

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 16 Oct 2017, 12:17:09

onlooker wrote:WE are are the best then they're is all the rest :lol: :lol:


You're busy (falsely) congratulating yourself for being the best while committing the most rudimentary of grammatical errors?

LOL indeed.
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Re: Dr. Eugene Preston Explains Why 100% Renewable Energy Is

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 16 Oct 2017, 15:04:09

k - "...why ships are increasingly being ordered as dual fuel. More flexibility. True. Along with the Russians building icebreaker LNG carriers to take advantage of once stranded NG fields around the fringes of the Arctic. When the sea ice gets too thick they can send them to warmer climates.
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Re: Dr. Eugene Preston Explains Why 100% Renewable Energy Is

Unread postby cephalotus » Sun 22 Oct 2017, 09:06:31

Tanada wrote:I have seen this issue as an either or proposition for a long time. either you can use Wind/Solar to supplement the grid up to perhaps 20% and maintain our current standard of living, OR you can reduce out current standard of living by 80% and use just renewables in a local off grid lifestyle. The grid stability problems what become critical any time the total grid input exceeds 20% perhaps 25% wind/solar maximum are insurmountable in terms of expense when using randomly variable inputs.



In 2016 Germany consumed 595 TWh of electricity

It produced 79TWh electricity from offshore + onshore wind and 38TWh from photovoltaics.


This is 117 TWh/ 595 TWh = 19,7%

So we already reached the technological limit? Of course we didn't!

The RE rate will be higher in 2017 and is still growing. We will easily reach 30% or 40% of wind + solar production.


Also Keep in mind that PV in Germany only has around 950kWh/kWp installed and many of the small and old wind onshore plants only produce around 1300-1500kWh/kW installed, while modern larger and higher wind power plants onshore produce 3000kWh/kW and offshore around 5000kWh/kWp.


In addition to that Germany produced 44TWh of electricity from biomass/biogas and 21TWh of electricity from water power which both add to the RE mix (but there is less potential).


Now we start to strengthen the grid (especially to Transport wind from the North to the south when we shut down our last nuclear power plants in 4 years) and we start to add more flexibility into that biogas production.

We didn't even start about smart demand systems for heating with electricity or charging electric vehicles and we didn't start to use significant amount of storage.


"...We are well on track to having a system that can accommodate between 70-80% renewable energy without the need for more flexibility options. What we already have should be able to meet our needs until 2030 or even 2040..."

https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy ... o-problem/


And it doesn't stop at 80% RE. After that you add storage capacity and power2x Technologies.


The last gas power plants will run on methane made from water, CO2 and electricity. Or we will use very large hydro storage capacities in our own Country (Ringwallspeicher) or maybe from Norway.


This options/ideas already exist and we will not need them for the next 30 years.
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Footing The $9 Trillion Renewable Bill

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 11 Dec 2017, 16:15:26



As the world is growing increasingly conscious of the need to invest in cleaner and more sustainable energy to limit the impact of global warming, it’s no secret that a faster and universal renewable energy transition will require trillions of dollars of investment over the next couple of decades. The trillion-dollar question is, who will foot the bill? According to Bloomberg’s Nathaniel Bullard, the biggest future investors in clean energy could be the largest institutional funds that manage more than US$1 trillion of assets each. Basically, the money is out there, it just needs to be realigned to the demand for investment in renewable energy. Demand exists. Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) has estimated that zero-carbon power generation is expected to attract US$9 trillion of investment until 2040. According to BNEF’s New Energy Outlook 2017, “Renewable energy sources are set to represent almost three


Footing The $9 Trillion Renewable Bill
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Re: Footing The $9 Trillion Renewable Bill

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 11 Dec 2017, 19:08:42

This is what happens when you post crap you don't understand. It's much worse . . .
According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), the overall energy investment needed for decarbonizing the energy sector will require an additional US$29 trillion until 2050.

(from the linked article)
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Re: Wind & Solar Are Wrong Path

Unread postby Zarquon » Sat 30 Dec 2017, 17:46:09

A good day to post yearly averages. Germany's weekly average share of renewables in electricity reached 38% in 2017. Problems with grid stability: nada.

https://www.energy-charts.de/ren_share.htm

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Re: Wind & Solar Are Wrong Path

Unread postby kublikhan » Sat 30 Dec 2017, 23:03:13

Zarquon wrote:A good day to post yearly averages. Germany's weekly average share of renewables in electricity reached 38% in 2017. Problems with grid stability: nada.
The increasing penetration of renewables is indeed causing problems in the grid, particularly for Germany's neighbors. Seems Germany spent too much attention on building renewables and not enough attention on how this would effect the system as a whole.

This high level of renewable energy is not without cost in terms of grid stability, and last week the separation of the German and Austrian grids was announced following complaints by the Polish and Czech energy regulators about the impact of Germany using their transmission systems to wheel power from the renewable generation centres in the north of the country to the large industrial demand centres in the south. The high levels of renewables are also causing issues domestically as the German system operator has to secure significant volumes of back-up generation to maintain security of supply in winter.

Germany’s renewable boom has disrupted neighbouring power grids
As the amount of renewable power generated in the north of Germany has grown, the amount of power being traded between Germany and Austria has at times been twice the amount of physical capacity between the two countries, meaning excess flows spill over into the grids of neighbouring countries.

The Polish grid operator, PSE, attributes a brownout in the summer of 2015 to this problem, asserting it had to curtail supplies to industrial consumers when Polish hydro power was restricted due to a heat wave, as it was unable to import the additional power it needed due to congestion at the boarder caused by unscheduled flows.

Almost half of all power exchanges between Germany and Austria flow through neighbouring grids
“The current power production from RES especially from wind generation in Northern Germany, Denmark, the North Sea and the Baltic Sea regions is physically transported by the German internal grid and also in large extent by parallel flows via transmission systems of neighbouring countries to the Southern parts of Germany, to the Alps or even Southern parts of the Continent. The limited predictability of these flows has on occasion caused non-compliance with fundamental grid operational security criteria in parts of the Central Continental European region. Transmission lines overloading or (n-1) violations in parts of the network which endanger the network have been increasingly reported by TSOs.

On several borders the difference between physical and scheduled flows is of such magnitude that they are often in opposite directions. This is observed more than 90% of the time on the PL/DE border, more than 90% on PL/CZ and more than 80% on the PL/SK border. Heavy “unplanned” transit flows added to scheduled flows cause severe loading on southern interconnectors (PL/CZ, PL/SK, DE/CZ and also SK/HU and SK/AU) and lead to non-compliance with fundamental network security criteria.”

With 85% of electricity demand being met on occasion by renewable sources, Germany’s Energiewende is often held up as an example of the success of strong environmental policy. The near-chaos caused to the transmission systems in neighbouring countries, and the vast quantities of conventional generation required to be held in reserve are frequently airbrushed out as inconvenient details.

The reality is that without proper system planning, the addition of large amounts of renewable generation creates unacceptable threats to system security. Adding insult to injury is the fact that Germany’s renewables boom has had no discernible effect on the country’s CO2 emissions while greatly inflating the cost to consumers.

Policymakers often fall into the trap of setting high renewable generation targets forgetting that renewable generation is not an end in itself. Without proper integration into the system, and due consideration to the generation mix as a whole including reserve power, the trilemma goals of decarbonisation, affordability and energy security are not met, as the German example demonstrates to dramatic effect.
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Re: Wind & Solar Are Wrong Path

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 30 Dec 2017, 23:46:20

"With 85% of electricity demand being met on occasion by renewable sources, Germany’s Energiewende is often held up as an example of the success of strong environmental policy. The near-chaos caused to the transmission systems in neighbouring countries, and the vast quantities of conventional generation required to be held in reserve are frequently airbrushed out as inconvenient details.

The reality is that without proper system planning, the addition of large amounts of renewable generation creates unacceptable threats to system security. Adding insult to injury is the fact that Germany’s renewables boom has had no discernible effect on the country’s CO2 emissions while greatly inflating the cost to consumers."
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Re: Wind & Solar Are Wrong Path

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 07 Jan 2018, 09:01:34

Important study on renewables in Germany. Click link below quote to see embedded graphs and videos of the information being presented.

Major Blow: Top German Economist Shows ‘Energiewende’ Can Never Work!

Germany’s once highly promoted “Energiewende” (transition to green energies) and the country’s feed-in act have been given a grade of “F” by one of the country’s top economists, Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. mult. Hans-Werner Sinn.

Just days ago the renowned economics professor gave a presentation dubbed “How much volatile power can the power grid take?” before a packed audience in Munich

The basis of his presentation is a recent paper appearing in the European Economic Review: Buffering volatility, A study on the limits of Germany’s energy revolution.

Green energy “disillusionment”

In summary, Sinn claims that it is unrealistic to believe that Germany can power itself with only wind and sun due to their immense supply volatility and that it is already a huge challenge in itself just to replace coal, oil, and gas for producing electricity. Coal, oil, and gas for electricity make up only a puny 12.8% of German total energy demand (chart 6:25-mark).

As far as the rest, you can dream about it, but you cannot do it. […] It was disillusionment from the very start, and it’s important that this be made very clear.”

Sinn shows just how volatile wind and solar energies in Germany are, using 2014 as an example. At the time Germany had installed just over 24,000 turbines with a total rated capacity of almost 36 gigawatts:

However, those turbines delivered on average only 5.85 gigawatts, well under 20%.

“Costs a horrendous sum of money”

The numbers are even more gruesome for solar panel installations, which of course do not function at all at night:

In Germany in 2014, 37.34 gigawatts of rated solar capacity was installed. Delivered, however, were merely a tenth of that amount, an average of 3.70 gigawatts. What it does, says Sinn:

It costs a horrendous sum of money, reduces the standard of living and blights the landscape. This simply cannot be!”

Sinn’s results are a major blow to the proponents of the German Energiewende and to the notion it is clean, cheap, and reliable. As the numbers and results come in, it becomes increasingly clear that the German mega-green project is turning into an embarrassing fiasco.

Sinn rhetorically asks whether it might be possible to smooth the supply, i.e. using a variety of strategies such pump-storage and power-to-gas, in order to make the supply more steady, reliable and efficient. His answer is an emphatic no, saying: “It’s an Energiewende to nowhere.”

Even if Germany installed enough capacity to make its supply 100% green, 61% of the output would have to “scrapped” because there would be no use for it, Sinn shows, using a chart at the 55-min. mark.

Lost credibility for science

The public, media, and policymakers, however, refuse to acknowledge that the German man-on-the-moon energy project is big trouble. At his blog site, Holger Douglas commented on Sinn’s presentation and the failure of the Energiewende:

In the ensuing discussion one of the gravest consequences of the Energiewende emerged: the credibility of science. At almost every single research institute experts have been making every effort to dodge the fundamental laws of physics and nature in order to justify the Energiewende after the fact.”

Sinn also notes he believes the cost of the Energiewende will end up far exceeding the earlier government estimate of 1 trillion euros. Moreover, he says that Germany is also transforming its idyllic landscape into a large industrial park.

De-industrializing by over-industrializing

The Energiewende is one green plan that is backfiring spectacularly on a scale few could have imagined earlier. And in typical German fashion, leaders refuse to acknowledge this and appear as if they would prefer to see the country descend (once again) into ruin before admitting they’ve erred.

This is one presentation that needs to be made in English in other countries that are gung-ho on going solar and wind.


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Re: Wind & Solar Are Wrong Path

Unread postby baha » Sun 07 Jan 2018, 11:31:36

Why would you ask an economist how much volatile power the power grid can take?
A Solar fuel spill is otherwise known as a sunny day!
The energy density of a tank of FF's doesn't matter if it's empty.
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Re: Wind & Solar Are Wrong Path

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sun 07 Jan 2018, 12:41:55

baha wrote:Why would you ask an economist how much volatile power the power grid can take?


How about, because someone has to pay for that volatility? I read somewhere recently that Austria and Pokand are straining to the point of brown outs to sell power to the German grid when the energywinde has a sudden shortfall. Do you think the Polish citizens should be forced to risk their own grid to help out Germany when they act lime idiots and shut down the clean green nuclear power in favor of bird and bat killing wnd turbines?
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Re: Wind & Solar Are Wrong Path

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sun 07 Jan 2018, 13:24:48

How about, we are running out of FF's to burn. The intermittency can be handled with distributed batteries. I'd rather pay a monthly battery lease than an electric bill myself. In fact I have been doing that with my solar panels, paying a fixed monthly lease instead of a variable rate. In the Summer the increased production allows essentially free A/C. In the Winter it offsets some portion of the increased natural gas consumption (bundled into the same PG&E bill in my case).
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Re: Wind & Solar Are Wrong Path

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 07 Jan 2018, 17:03:55

This issue of intermittency will have to be dealt with when the proportion of wind and solar passes twenty five percent of the power mix or there abouts. It is a problem that needs an answer and if they build out too many green intermittent projects before they have worked out and put that answer in place they may create grid failures of epic proportions.
I think there are good answers available like using parked EVs as storage through smart metering but first those cars have to be built and purchased by consumers and the two way smart meters have to be put in place.
Heaven forbid that consumers see their lights flicker or be told they can't turn on an appliance because the wind isn't blowing.
I think we will muddle through this but considering that government is involved I expect a few major power outages before they figure it out.
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Re: Wind & Solar Are Wrong Path

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sun 07 Jan 2018, 17:16:29

The government does not have to be involved. The PowerWall batteries that Musk is selling should be bundled into every newly constructed home IMHO. This will allow distributed renewable energy generation to go with distributed energy storage, and stretch the existing grid to cover more consumers without a major buildout or renewal.

Elon Musk has proven he can manage distributed energy storage online IMHO. If you have both a PowerWall and an EV with 200+ mile range, you own quite a large energy store and have replaced a lot of FF burning, especially if you are filling the batteries with Solar PV or a wind turbine.

If we could make this the norm over the next couple of decades, we could ease the transition from FF to renewables.

Wind & Solar & Batteries & Power Grid are the Right Path.
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Re: Wind & Solar Are Wrong Path

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 07 Jan 2018, 17:31:35

KaiserJeep wrote:The government does not have to be involved.

But it is involved on every grid in the country. You are not going to get them to go away or let you make a decision or install a devise they have not signed off on with them getting the credit for the innovation.
The PowerWall batteries that Musk is selling should be bundled into every newly constructed home IMHO. This will allow distributed renewable energy generation to go with distributed energy storage, and stretch the existing grid to cover more consumers without a major buildout or renewal.

Elon Musk has proven he can manage distributed energy storage online IMHO. If you have both a PowerWall and an EV with 200+ mile range, you own quite a large energy store and have replaced a lot of FF burning, especially if you are filling the batteries with Solar PV or a wind turbine.

If we could make this the norm over the next couple of decades, we could ease the transition from FF to renewables.

Wind & Solar & Batteries & Power Grid are the Right Path.

Elon Musk has problems delivering on his promises and projections. Maybe he will prove out in the end but he needs to start delivering on time and on budget.
Until he does that I would not put any wind or solar power generation in place that needs his storage systems (power walls or plugged in E3s) until he actually has the power walls or EVs in place.
He needs to be moved to Missouri and start showing me.
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Re: Wind & Solar Are Wrong Path

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sun 07 Jan 2018, 17:44:51

KaiserJeep wrote:How about, we are running out of FF's to burn. The intermittency can be handled with distributed batteries. I'd rather pay a monthly battery lease than an electric bill myself. In fact I have been doing that with my solar panels, paying a fixed monthly lease instead of a variable rate. In the Summer the increased production allows essentially free A/C. In the Winter it offsets some portion of the increased natural gas consumption (bundled into the same PG&E bill in my case).


How about we have a million years of Uranium and Thorium that generates about a million watts per mass unit? Also there is still a lot of unexploited hydroelectric potential, hot dry rock that can be harvested for geothermal, and about 250 years of fracked natural gas and another 500 years of coal?

Just because oil is peaking doesn’t mean we lack energy. We just lack the will to exploit it. I listed those sources in order of preference, fools keep objecting to the whole top of the list.
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