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Wildfires 2020 Thread

Re: Wildfires 2020 Thread

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 14 Jan 2020, 14:30:35

That's stupid that it's either weather or climate change: They're both two sides of the same coin.


whats stupid is you thinking that is the case, especially since I don't know how many times someone on this site is being reminded that because they are having a period of very hight temperatures or a period of cold temperatures that is weather, not climate. The argument that everyone has been making is that gradually increased temperatures from climate change have caused drought and will result in more forest/bush fires. As I've shown for Australia the evidence suggests the opposite. Does weather come into play, of course it does. High winds will drive fires and a lack of downpours will not help extinguish existing fires. But weather is unpredictable and the same weather could have been around several hundred years ago as it is today. Trends are what is required to make it climate.
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Re: Wildfires 2020 Thread

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 14 Jan 2020, 20:04:14

the same weather could have been around several hundred years ago as it is today.


Actually no. Several hundred years ago the world was in a cold climate period known as the Little Ice Age. While there were no thermometers in Australia we know it was cooler during the Little Ice Age through various climate proxy records like coral and tree rings, which provide annual records of past climate back through several millennia.


Trends are what is required to make it climate.


And indeed there is strong trend of warming in Australian climate records from decade to decade during the last 100+ years. There has been a sustained trend of warming, and the Australian national meteorological group estimates 2019 is the warmest year of the entire instrumental record, with annual temps for 2019 running an eye-popping 1.59°C above average.

I posted this information previously above ---with a link---, in case you missed it or somehow forget it.

Image
Australia is hot hot hot right now......the culmination of over a century long trend of warming climate.

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Re: Wildfires 2020 Thread

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 15 Jan 2020, 17:57:07

This is not an argument for or against man caused LONG TERM climate change (which I wrote as a possibility as an undergrad in 1972 when working on my BS in Earth Sciences).

What I wonder if Aussie MSM is ignoring the potential of widespread arson being behind much (if not most) of the current calamity. About 24 have been arrested for starting wild fires. Seems a rather large number to be just accidents. Everyone that has owned wild land knows the cheapest way to get rid of brush is by burning. As is common in south America done to open up land for agricultural expansion. Rather efficient in Aussie land to clear tens of millions of acres (though not very nice) given how few structures have been destroyed compared to those destroyed in CA's much smaller fires.

Just wondering.
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Re: Wildfires 2020 Thread

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 15 Jan 2020, 18:23:29

Rockman, read up thread. The aboriginals had used fire to manage their lands as far back as they can remember and when immigrants showed up they learned that it was necessary to burn off dead crops and old tree droppings every year or risk have out of control fires. This has been documented numerous times in the literature and the experts in this subject matter in Aus are advocates. It is the government regulations that have kept land owners from controlled burning which has resulted in the enormous amount of fuel.

As an aside Australia has always been prone to bushfires. The issue is that you get a year with lots of rain which causes more growth and the following year that growth dies and dries out extremely rapidly because of the combination of wind and heat. If the fuel on the ground caused by this is not removed then fires are pretty much guaranteed. It has been like this back well over a hundred years so no need to invoke climate change.
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Re: Wildfires 2020 Thread

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 16 Jan 2020, 13:30:36

Doc - Exactly. I'm sure you the big fire in Yellowstone some decades ago. Afterwards it was easy for the govt to conclude the major contributing factor was the prevention of major brush fires for decades loaded the forests with huge amount of fuel. Once it reached a tipping point major uncontrollable fires were inevitable. Afterwards the Feds started a regular program of "prescribed burns". I think that's the term used.

As you described same thing in south Texas...and probably other areas is the country: wetter then normal leads to a brush boom followed by normal arid periods and increased wild fires.

Personally I find it odd that some folk attribute a 1+ degree increase in temp as a cause for major wild fires. I've never found brush difficult to burn even during periodic LOWER than normal temps...much LOWER than several degrees below average. Rain patterns were much more a significant factor.
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Re: Wildfires 2020 Thread

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 23 Jan 2020, 07:02:12

Meanwhile as arguments continue there is a small (171ha) fire burning out of control a couple of miles from Parliament House. Every thing that been thrown at this fire within minuets due to the proximity of the airport, military assets and housing. Mind you another 5 of the fires have returned to Emergency warning levels as they are out of control.

https://esa.act.gov.au/emergency-warnin ... -crestwood

Meanwhile...

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-n ... lse-claims


Bots and trolls spread false arson claims in Australian fires ‘disinformation campaign’
[...]

Using a Twitter bot detection tool, he assessed a random sample for bot-like characteristics.

His preliminary analysis found there is likely a “current disinformation campaign” on Twitter’s #arsonemergency hashtag due to the “suspiciously high number of bot-like and troll-like accounts”.

He similarly found a large number of suspicious accounts posting on the #australiafire and #bushfireaustralia hashtags.

“Australia suddenly appears to be getting swamped by mis/disinformation as a result of this environmental catastrophe, and we are suffering the consequences in terms of hyped up polarisation and an increased difficulty and inability for citizens to discern truth,” Graham told the Guardian.
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Re: Wildfires 2020 Thread

Unread postby jedrider » Thu 23 Jan 2020, 16:43:19

ROCKMAN wrote:Personally I find it odd that some folk attribute a 1+ degree increase in temp as a cause for major wild fires.


Well, 'personally' 1+ degree certainly doesn't sound like much at all. But, evidently, it is 'very much':

I'm not a biologist/ecologist, but people like Guy McPherson who are, probably understand this more than I.

https://weather.com/science/environment/video/tiny-bugs-climate-change-killing-giant-sequoia-trees-in-california
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Re: Wildfires 2020 Thread

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 01 Feb 2020, 10:07:53

Within two weeks, the top of the plume had risen as high as 25 kilometers, making this the highest wildfire-caused plume ever tracked by the CALIPSO satellite. “The plume is rising because of the radiative heating of soot particles within the smoke by the Sun.”

Australian Smoke Plume Sets Records

The Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on NASA's Aura satellite has collected preliminary data that suggests the Australian fires injected more carbon monoxide into the stratosphere in the month of January than any other event the sensor has observed outside of the tropics during its 15-year mission.


https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/image ... ts-records

(thanks to sig at asif for this)
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Re: Wildfires 2020 Thread

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 14 Jun 2020, 08:32:40

Bighorn Fire doubles in size, forces evacuations near Tucson, Arizona

...Arizona has the largest concentration of ongoing wildfires across the southwestern United States, according to the National Wildfire Coordinating Group, with California, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico and West Texas also reporting blazes.


https://www.accuweather.com/en/severe-w ... ona/757344
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Re: Wildfires 2020 Thread

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 18 Jun 2020, 17:08:44

More on the above:

Arizona's Bush Fire burns through about 115,000 acres


Arizona's Bush Fire has burned through about 115,000 acres with only 5 percent contained, an incident report showed Thursday.

The blaze, which was sparked Saturday by a car fire on Bush Highway that ignited dry bush and grass, doubled in size from Tuesday to Wednesday.

It surpassed the size of Mesa, a city in Maricopa County, Arizona, when it burned through 104,379 acres in the Four Peaks Wilderness area of Tonto National Forest on Wednesday night. Since then, according to Inciweb, the wildfire has burned though 114,941 acres in southern Arizona with only 5 percent contained, becoming the largest active wildfire in the country.

According to the National Interagency Fire Center, 37 large fires have burned through more than 292,000 acres in nine states.

Gila and Maricopa county emergency officials have been evacuating Apache Lake, Sunflower, Punkin Center and Tonto Basin "due to the fire's growth and movement," Inciweb reported. Residents in Jake's Corner have also been told to pack up and get ready to leave in case they also have to evacuate.

The fire has been fueled by tall grass, shrubs, brush, along with hot and dry conditions and increased winds.

It is Arizona's seventh-largest wildfire on record, according to the National Weather Service Phoenix...

The state's second-largest active fire north of the Grand Canyon in the Kaibab National Forest, called the Mangum Fire, has also grown rapidly this week. It recently doubled in size and has burned through 56,780 acres with 3 percent contained, according to Inciweb. ...


https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2020/06 ... 592492293/
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Re: Wildfires 2020 Thread

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 15 Jul 2020, 14:58:55

How climate change is affecting wildfires around the world

https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-h ... -the-world

This year has seen unprecedented wildfires cause havoc across the world.

Australia recently battled its largest bushfire on record, while parts of the Arctic, the Amazon and central Asia have also experienced unusually severe blazes.

It follows on from “the year rainforests burned” in 2019


And keep in mind that these fires are also feedbacks, feeding more heating and more fires...
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Re: Wildfires 2020 Thread

Unread postby sparky » Thu 16 Jul 2020, 01:15:41

.
Astralian bush fires are ditectly related to human activity
it used to be Bushmen torching the place constantly , they didn't want forest the wanted grass land
that was their land management system ...grand arsonism
now there is less abbos burning but a highly suspicious correlation between suburbs and starting fire
either through accidents or deliberately lighted
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Re: Wildfires 2020 Thread

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 22 Jul 2020, 12:19:50

https://twitter.com/DrTELS/status/1285514278527737858

New spatial analysis of wildfires across the Arctic in May/June 2020, and how they compare to the satellite record (2003-2020). What is burning? Are there peat fires? What about permafrost?


Image

So, over the last two decades or so the average was about 100. Last year it was over 600, and this year it is near 1000! Wow!

Methinks some tipping point has tipped
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Re: Wildfires 2020 Thread

Unread postby jawagord » Fri 24 Jul 2020, 14:01:10

Alberta wildfires at historic lows this year, less than 1% of the average year burn area. Too much rain, not enough drought, temperatures too low, I guess it's a bad climate change anomaly, as we know wildfires bring renewal!

Total Fires Total Area Burnt (ha)
Forest Protection Area (Wildfire Data Only)
------------------------Fires------Area (ha)
2020:..................387..........741.59
5 Year Average:....1060.....399,789.57




https://wildfire.alberta.ca/reports/sitrep.html
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Re: Wildfires 2020 Thread

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 25 Jul 2020, 11:26:12

Alberta wildfires at historic lows this year, less than 1% of the average year burn area. Too much rain, not enough drought, temperatures too low, I guess it's a bad climate change anomaly, as we know wildfires bring renewal!


There is a good historical example of this in Alberta. Back near the beginning of the twentieth century the government had effectively stopped all fires in and near Banff, AB as they saw this region of what was then called The Rocky Mountain National Park as being a large tourist draw. The lack of fires meant that fire succession species would be absent (seeds are released at very high temperatures) and the new shoots from these species are a major part of the diet of many ungulates. With no new shoots available, elk began eating bark from spruce trees as there wasn't a lot of other options for them, they became weak and those that weren't picked off by the roaming wolf packs in the area died from disease. At one point there were no elk in the park at all. The elk that are present there now were imported and the fire policy was altered. The Park tries to let small natural fires burn in order to use up much of the forest floor fuel which in turn helps reduce the change of large climax fires and also provides food for the park's large ungulate population.
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Re: Wildfires 2020 Thread

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 25 Jul 2020, 19:12:14

Nothing much left to burn up there after last years infernos, jawa

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Alberta_wildfires

The 2019 Alberta wildfires have been described by NASA as part of an extreme fire season in the province.[5] In 2019 there were a total of 803,393.32 hectares (1,985,228 acres) burned by Sam Jones,[1][6][7][8] which is over 3.5 times more land area burned than in the five-year average...

In 2019, the there have been 644 wildfires in the Forest Protection Area with a total of 798,380.75 hectares (1,972,842 acres) burned as of June 20.[2] The current 5-year average is 664 wildfires with 146,164.76 hectares (361,181 acres) burned.[2]
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Re: Wildfires 2020 Thread

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 25 Jul 2020, 21:44:48

Massive wildfires in Siberia follow hard upon the extreme heat wave that has affected Siberia through a big part of this summer

wildfires-sibera-russia-burned-area-larger-than-greece-heat-wave-2020

Image

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Re: Wildfires 2020 Thread

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 25 Jul 2020, 22:06:29

Wow, thanks P.

One has to wonder if that didn't contribute in some way to the amazing melt season we are seeing so far in the Arctic Ocean
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Re: Wildfires 2020 Thread

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 26 Jul 2020, 12:23:46

dohboi wrote:Wow, thanks P.

One has to wonder if that didn't contribute in some way to the amazing melt season we are seeing so far in the Arctic Ocean


Absolutely right.

The incredible heat wave that hit northern Siberia smashed temperature records for weeks. The high temps were reaching levels that models predicted we'd see only after 50 more years of global warming.

And now we're on track to hit the all-time low in Arctic sea ice...partly because it was so warm over the Arctic ocean north of Siberia.

Its been an incredible record-setting summer in the Arctic Ocean and in Siberia.

Here in Alaska we are on track to hit the high 70s next week. We're not quite at record warm levels, but we've had a consistently warm summer with near record rainfall. My lake cabin has had flooding from a small creek that runs through the property, and I've been digging ditches much of the summer to try to get the creek back in its channel. Its nice to have a summer without the forest fires and smoke, but now we've got too much rain.

Its always something.....

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Re: Wildfires 2020 Thread

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 26 Jul 2020, 17:22:20

Nothing much left to burn up there after last years infernos, jawa


maybe stick to something you actually have information on.
The area affected by wildfires in Alberta in 2019 made up approximately 2% of the total forested portion of the province.
If 98% of the total forested area (~ 396,000 km2 in Alberta alone) is "nothing" then you have a serious maths problem. :roll:
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