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Wildfires 2020 Thread

Re: Wildfires 2020 Thread

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 12 Sep 2020, 17:07:23

Oregon sheriff’s deputy placed on leave for falsely blaming Antifa for starting forest fires


https://www.rawstory.com/2020/09/oregon ... est-fires/

I don't suppose there is any possibility of putting any posters 'on leave' for propogating similar dangerous lies??? :roll:
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Re: Wildfires 2020 Thread

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 12 Sep 2020, 17:11:21

It's important, of course, to note that Global Warming is the real cause of these fires.

And it's not just California burning.

Even more important to the global system are the fires raging in the Amazon, on its way to being lost to us forever, and the Arctic (same):

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/10/americas ... index.html

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02568-y
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Re: Wildfires 2020 Thread

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 12 Sep 2020, 17:26:12

Suspect arrested for arson in southern Oregon. At the time he was arrested he had drugs in his possession.

suspect-arrested-for-arson-during-almeda-fire

This loon was seen setting a fire near the road and then apprehended and arrested before that fire could burn into some nearby houses. At the time he was caught committing arson the Alameda fire was already burning through nearby Ashland/Talent/Medford, where many people are still missing and where an arson investigation is currently underway to determine the cause of the deadly Alameda fire.

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Re: Wildfires 2020 Thread

Unread postby jedrider » Sat 12 Sep 2020, 17:41:03

The Anthropocene seemed to have been very short lived as now we are already in the Pyrocene climatic era.

Becoming Arizona: How climate change is transforming California thru fire
https://thecottonwoodpost.net/2020/09/12/becoming-arizona-how-climate-change-is-transforming-california-thru-fire/
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Re: Wildfires 2020 Thread

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 12 Sep 2020, 17:53:36

jedrider wrote:The Anthropocene seemed to have been very short lived as now we are already in the Pyrocene climatic era.

Becoming Arizona: How climate change is transforming California thru fire
https://thecottonwoodpost.net/2020/09/12/becoming-arizona-how-climate-change-is-transforming-california-thru-fire/


California isn't becoming Arizona.....there are no oceans in Arizona.

Whats happening in California is that its becoming Baja.

Global warming doesn't make California more continental like Arizona....what global warming does in many places is effectively to shift climate zones and ecotones hundred of miles northward.

Thats one reason I went to Baja last February.....right before the China virus hit.

I wanted to see what California would look like in the future as the climate warmed.

Baja is spectacular....the deserts go right down to the ocean edge.

The mountains in baja are rocky and bare, with few or no trees.

Its hyper arid and hot.

There aren't many people because there isn't much water available.

Image
This is the future of California ---- its going to look like Baja looks today.

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Re: Wildfires 2020 Thread

Unread postby jedrider » Sat 12 Sep 2020, 19:13:12

The cactus looks the same to me, whether in Baja or Arizona.
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Re: Wildfires 2020 Thread

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 12 Sep 2020, 20:35:56

Yes the cactus looks the same, but the geographic and climatic setting of the desert in Arizona and the desert in Baja is totally different.

Desert conditions in Arizona are caused by the fact that it is in the interior of the continent, cut off from the ocean by the Sierra Nevada and other mountains, and the mountains block most rainstorms so that rainfall mostly only penetrates into Arizona during certain times of the year when storms come up from the Gulf of California.

The desert in Baja is right next to the ocean. There are no mountains between Baja and the ocean to stop precipitation..... The desert conditions in Baja are caused by perennial high pressure associated with global scale Hadley cell circulation in the atmosphere.

As the equatorial Hadley cell expands and strengthens in response to global warming, it is tending to cause more aridity and the deserts in a broad band around the planet and low latitude deserts are expanding. This process is known as desertification, and in California it is causing the climate in the state of California to transmogrify into a very hot and arid climate more like that seen across northern Mexico and Baja today.

Image
Hadley cells are expanding around the globe in response to global warming....this is causing more aridity and the expansion of low latitude deserts around the planet, including the increase in aridity in California.

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Re: Wildfires 2020 Thread

Unread postby jedrider » Mon 28 Sep 2020, 18:17:48

The new look of building in California's fire zone:

Napa Valley's famed castle, Castello di Amorosa
https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Napa-Calistoga-castle-Castello-di-Amorosa-fire-15603863.php

However, the French are smarter. I visited a lot of caves with their wine and champagne caches safely underground in France.
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Re: Wildfires 2020 Thread

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 28 Sep 2020, 18:58:49

jedrider wrote:the French are smarter. I visited a lot of caves with their wine and champagne caches safely underground in France.


There are also caves filled with thousands and thousands of bottles of wine under some of the older wineries in Napa Valley....

We'll find out how safe the wine actually is when its stored in the caves after a few more wineries burn down in NAPA.

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Re: Wildfires 2020 Thread

Unread postby REAL Green » Thu 01 Oct 2020, 07:23:58

“Wildfires Decreases Solar Generation in CAISO”
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/09/30/sm ... -in-caiso/

“In the first two weeks of September 2020, average solar-powered electricity generation in the California Independent System Operator (CAISO), which covers 90% of utility-scale solar capacity in California, declined nearly 30% from the July 2020 average as wildfires burned across the state. Wildfire smoke contains small, airborne particulate matter particles that are generally 2.5 micrometers or smaller (referred to as PM2.5). This matter reduces the amount of sunlight that reaches solar panels, decreasing solar-powered electricity generation. As of September 28, California wildfires have burned an estimated 3.6 million acres in 2020, an area about the size of Connecticut…Although most solar capacity in California is in the southern half of the state and the largest wildfires are currently concentrated in the northern and central parts of the state, offshore winds push wildfire smoke into Southern California. As of September 28, Cal Fire reports that the August Complex Fire, the largest wildfire in California history, was 45% contained. Other large, ongoing fires, such as the North Complex Fire and the Creek Fire, were 78% and 39% contained, respectively.”
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Re: Wildfires 2020 Thread

Unread postby jedrider » Thu 01 Oct 2020, 11:55:29

Looking on the bright side for a way forward for California and wildfires:

What we can learn from 36 years of prescribed burns at this Tahoe state park
https://www.sfgate.com/renotahoe/article/What-we-can-learn-prescribe-burns-sugar-pine-tahoe-15610049.php

I've been to Sugar Pine a few times now recently. It looks a bit managed, but managed for the better. It has a reservoir with crystal clear water and there is some unusual geology apparent as well (because it has placards that explain it).
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Re: Wildfires 2020 Thread

Unread postby REAL Green » Sat 03 Oct 2020, 08:05:01

fire.airnow.gov
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Re: Wildfires 2020 Thread

Unread postby REAL Green » Fri 16 Oct 2020, 07:15:08

Climate change means pull back from fire prone areas and coastal danger zones. Riparian areas are another area of risk that need to be avoided for flash flooding. This fire problem points to a problem with back to the land localism in the dry west in areas of high fire risk but small communities practicing fire protection strategies can be viable. Overall the traditional development of rural areas of the west must adapt to a new norm.

“The Wildfire West: Where Housing Sprawl And Wildfire-Prone Areas Collide”
https://priceonomics.com/the-wildfire-w ... prawl-and/

“we are now entering fire season in the American West. After years of elevated global temperatures and drought, by the end of each summer, smoke-filled skies seem to be the norm across the West. Though we would love a respite from calamity, there is no reason to believe that we’ll be spared from wildfires this year. With scientific certainty, we know which areas are prone to wildfires, though home construction continues in those areas. At Cape Analytics, we use artificial intelligence to analyze vast quantities of geospatial imagery to help insurers and other companies better understand properties and property risk. Along with our partner HazardHub, we wanted to explore exactly how much sprawl there has been in the West’s high-risk fire zones. From the standpoint of insurance and danger to human life, these homes and adjacent communities are especially risky. Quantifying the risk can help homeowners and agencies such as CAL FIRE take more proactive and focused measures to protect lives and property. The Hot Spots To create this report, we analyzed new homes built over the last decade and found that California leads the West when it comes to the most builds in high-risk areas. Given that California is the most populous state in the country, we can expect a lot of new construction. When adjusting for population size, Utah leads the West by a significant margin in building homes in places with high fire risks. When looking at specific cities with the most new home construction in high-risk zones in the West, El Dorado Hills, California tops the list, followed by St. George, Utah. In addition, as the pandemic has precipitated an urban exodus, many residents are fleeing into higher-risk fire zones…Over the last decade, California has built over 10,000 homes in areas deemed as high wildfire risk. High land prices and stringent zoning requirements in the California urban core have pushed builders further into rural areas, where the fire risk is much higher. Over the last few years, we have seen how dangerous wildfires can be in these areas of California, as places like Paradise and Santa Rosa have been devastated by fires. Among Western states, Utah ranks second in terms of high fire risk building, followed by Colorado…After adjusting for population size, it becomes clear that Utah has the most home building activity in high fire risk zones in the West. For every 100,000 citizens, 191.6 homes are built, a figure that is approximately 5x higher than Idaho, which ranks second in this metric. Utah, an arid state with large swathes of flammable vegetation, has actively developed a number of communities in high wildfire risk zones…As this analysis shows, a tremendous number of new homes are being built in the highest wildfire risk areas. While they may be naturally beautiful, they are also naturally combustible. Our analysis suggests places like California and Utah contribute to rural sprawl and do so at considerable risk for more destruction of homes and loss of life wrought by wildfires. Moreover, as the climate gets hotter and drier, the risk in these areas will only grow, as stronger, wind-driven wildfires impact even some lower-risk regions…What can residents do to protect themselves as wildfire risk increases in the coming decades? Luckily, some actions are proven to mitigate risk for individual properties…One of the most effective deterrents is defensible space — a fancy word for clearing vegetation and flammable debris around your house. CAL FIRE, for example, recommends residents trim tree branches at least 10 feet away from buildings and other trees, and remove dead plants, branches, and shrubs up to 30 feet away from the structure. When implemented across entire neighborhoods, maintaining defensible space can insulate communities from the worst damage. For many of the areas named in this report, mitigation measures like these could be the difference between a neighborhood withstanding a wildfire and a community being destroyed.”
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Re: Wildfires 2020 Thread

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 16 Oct 2020, 20:31:45

REAL Green wrote:Climate change means pull back from fire prone areas ..... Overall the traditional development of rural areas of the west must adapt to a new norm.


Not necessarily.

It is also possible that politicians will come up various ways to keep "business as usual" going.

For instance, right now private insurers are raising rates and even refusing insurance to people who live in areas at risk of forest fires in California and other states.

I predict that the Ds will "solve" this problem by passing a law to offer federally subsidized fire insurance for homes in high risk wildfire areas, just as they now offer federal flood insurance to subsidize insurance for people living in river floodplains and in coastal areas that are hit by hurricanes.

Nancy Pelosi is going to be able to get anything she wants as soon as the Ds take over the White House and the Senate.......and I predict Pelosi and the Ds will create a new Federal fire insurance program when they go back to DC in 2021 to provide federal subsidies and reduce the premiums for fire insurance for people who build homes in dangerous areas of California and other states.

Image
I predict the Ds will create a new federally subsidized fire insurance program for homeowners in high risk forested areas.

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Re: Wildfires 2020 Thread

Unread postby jedrider » Fri 16 Oct 2020, 23:33:11

Well, to begin with, in my opinion:

1. The banks require too much insurance to qualify one for a loan.
2. The insurance company usually pays big for fairly new homes that never should be built at that scale.
3. A lot of people with old homes are left holding the bag as they probably didn't update their insurance.
4. The state may have to institute new rules and probably throw in some guarantees, but this is not going to be easy.
5. Nobody ever said Global Warming is going to be good for us except for some deniers and a potential Supreme Court Justice.
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Re: Wildfires 2020 Thread

Unread postby jedrider » Fri 16 Oct 2020, 23:39:37

Trump to California: Drop Dead.

Something like that. Oh, we do have some Republicans that live here:

Trump Backs Off Denying Disaster Aid To Fire-Scorched California
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-reversal-wildfire-relief-california_n_5f89edcac5b6dc2d17f6a91b
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Re: Wildfires 2020 Thread

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 17 Oct 2020, 12:46:17

jedrider wrote: The state may have to .... throw in some guarantees, but this is not going to be easy.


Of course its easy. The Ds control every statewide office in California and they have a supermajority in the California legislature. The Ds can do absolutely anything they want in California.

If the Ds want to provide "guarantees" for home buyers or subsidize fire insurance for for home owners in Califrornia they can easily do it.

Personally, I'm looking for Pelosi and the Ds to start a nationwide federal subsidy program for wildfire insurance sometime next year.

And it won't just be for homeowners facing wildfires out in Paradise or other little mountain towns. It will be very popular with homeowners in cities like Santa Rosa, which has had two wildfires burn right in the city in last few years. Same thing in Oakland, Berkeley, Santa Barbara, Montecito, Santa Anna and even Los Angeles. Wildfires.....are now going right into California cities.

And its only going to get worse, of course, as the planet continues to heat up.

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