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When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Why CC is so scary

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 20 Aug 2018, 10:29:06

Since I have been on this site, we have discussed all the ways that our species and civilization is living unsustainbly. In particular lots of posts about runaway global warming and its vast negative potential. So this thread, can serve perhaps as a thread to synthesize our concerns relative to climate change. From my reading, this is about as ominous as it gets. The greatest mass extinction on this planet is connected to climate change. In addition, we have other factors working against us in terms of long term survivability. We have the already degraded diminished state of the planet, we have the potential of a world wide nuclear meltdown, we have an intense forcing of the climate due to the unprecented fast rate of uptake of GHG and finally we have a Sun that is hotter than it was 250 million years ago (when the Great Dying took place), or even 50 million years ago.
So, Runaway Abrupt Climate Change is nothing less than Earth changing, given how integral and important the climate is to the habitat of all species.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... ouse-gases
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Re: Why CC is so scary

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 20 Aug 2018, 11:55:40

onlooker, it's scary because you have internalized the worst possible outcome. I see several possible reasons each worthy of discussion;

--like dohboi you have skin in that game, are a paid blogger/green scammer. I like you and don't believe this is the case.
--your life is incomplete, without a satisfying outlet for your creative or competitive drives. If so, I suggest a new career (to channels those animalistic drives) or a new hobby (for your softer side lol).
--your intellectual horizons are short. So you have ignored previous personal observations and data/experience that contradicts catastrophic GW. So as a reminder (and a gift) . . . remember that none of the previous end-time predictions came true yet. So the Great California and Rio Death Droughts are over, the most Horrible Hurricane Season is a thing of the past. And life goes on.
--you have dissociated and channeled real fears for the upcoming Peak Oil Dieoff into something manageable, a distant, cloudy, ill-defined climate catastrophe. That will never happen. Not with the end of industrial civilization NIGH and the termination of carbon emissions. then there is that global greening thingy :)
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Re: Why CC is so scary

Unread postby Cog » Mon 20 Aug 2018, 12:04:01

Peak oil and gas will have much more catastrophic consequences to humans than climate change and in a much shorter time frame.
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Re: Why CC is so scary

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Mon 20 Aug 2018, 12:15:56

Here is my list of the top six problems the planet faces:

1) Human overpopulation which is leading steadily to monoculture food production and food animal overpopulation.
2) Shortages of uncontaminated fresh water which are worsening as time passes.
3) Exhaustion of fossil fuels which will devastate human lives everywhere.
4) Pollution of the oceans and loss of the greatest food source on the planet.
5) Loss of arable soils due to mechanized agriculture and deep well irrigation from disappearing fossil aquifers.
6) Climate Change (most of which is natural) that is moving the most productive temperate lands North, and shrinking their extent.
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Re: Why CC is so scary

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 20 Aug 2018, 12:23:12

Pstarr, as you know I have tried to understand both the PO alarmists and CC alarmists. My point differs with yours in that I see CC as practically as matter of our possible extinction and that coal and natural gas will STILL allow us to muddle through and continue to spew GHG gases. At least we both can communicate without resorting to insults haha. A lesson for other posters?
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Re: Why CC is so scary

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 20 Aug 2018, 12:30:13

Kaiser, the Earth can mend environmentally once our population is reduced substantially and we fall back in line with environmental capacity. But CC is different because the climate is a long term dynamic and is absolutely critical in defining a life supporting habitat
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Re: Why CC is so scary

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 20 Aug 2018, 12:49:33

Just an aside here but anyone notice all the views this thread got in just a short period of time. Over 100. Maybe the site should change its name to POandCC.com
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Re: Why CC is so scary

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Mon 20 Aug 2018, 12:50:40

onlooker wrote:Kaiser, the Earth can mend environmentally once our population is reduced substantially and we fall back in line with environmental capacity. But CC is different because the climate is a long term dynamic and is absolutely critical in defining a life supporting habitat


....and most of the warming we are experiencing is entirely natural as we slowly withdraw from the Late Pliocene Ice Age. This means that even if you manage to convince EVERYBODY on the whole planet that AGW is real, the total abandonment of FF's and the magical sequestering of atmospheric carbon will at very best cause a slight slowdown in the natural warming.

Of course, abandonning FF usage without adequate carbon-free replacement energy sources also amounts to the prophylactic starvation of approximately six billion humans. Good luck with selling that one.
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Re: Why CC is so scary

Unread postby Pops » Mon 20 Aug 2018, 12:51:30

No doubt we're living unsustainably at the moment. But, unsustainability, by definition, is a self-correcting condition. So be happy.

I'm not scared.

As with PO I wasn't too afraid we'd need to eat bugs [ :) to Shanny wherever you are] and with global warming I'm not too worried I'll turn into one of these:
Image

None of which is to say I don't wish we could bend the old population curve a little faster. When I was born the population was 2.8B — today 7.3B and I feel it every time I go out the door. Good news is when I was born the pop was increasing almost 1.7%/A but it peaked at just over 2%/A and now is down to just over 1%... yeah, I know, 1% of 8B is more than 2% of 3B.

2 things can save us, education and birth control. Amazingly, given a choice, women will find other things to do than grunt out babies every year. Pills, IUDs, etc plus as much education as you can stand should be given out like candy.

You mention 1970. Back in '72 they sold "iron-on transfers" at the variety store and I dug 'em. I especially remember wearing out shirts with the big "ZPG", "earth" graphics and the ecology symbol:
Image

Short term doom scares me— well, concerns me, more than the collapse of civilization for the obvious reason it is more likely. When we bugged out in the oughts we still had kids in their twenties and I was sorta thinking about an out for them along with living the dream. Our kids are over forty now and pretty well on their own so I've kinda passed off the torch to them because frankly they would have no idea about anything I've just typed, lol. One granddaughter is going to stay with us while attending college and Ill have a chance to harangue her some, poor thing.

I think about conservation, tho, always have. My parents were from the dust bowl and so lived one short term doom scenario resulting from pretending god put us in charge and would reward us for being "fruitful." My conservation usually shows up as frugality but that may just be my normal mode.
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Re: Why CC is so scary

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 20 Aug 2018, 12:59:11

If it don’t scare the crap outta ya you aren’t paying attention.
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Re: Why CC is so scary

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 20 Aug 2018, 13:03:54

Perhaps sitting in a safe place pondering the bad consequences is far worse psychologically than actually living through harrowing consequences. It is the imagined demons and consequences that are worst than the actual consequences because the former you contemplate while sitting in front of your computer and the latter is filled with action as you pack up and move to higher ground.

Contemplating bad news gets your adrenaline flowing without your body mobilized. If and when real consequences come and we are scrambling there will be survival activities that make it all real, not just conjecture.

Who knows, as bad as that might be it might be rather positive as survival can add meaning to a life that for many has become meaningless and indolent.

So silver linings are there.
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Re: Why CC is so scary

Unread postby Pops » Mon 20 Aug 2018, 13:22:24

Newfie wrote:If it don’t scare the crap outta ya you aren’t paying attention.

Scared it a temporary physical condition: fight or flight.
Tapping doom into the aether doesn't qualify, worried, concerned, fretful; maybe

On the other hand, I'd say some vanishingly tiny number might actually be scared, somewhere out in Idaho or the Redwoods, working 24/7 bunkering up.
(Cruising the Caribbean doesn't count, LOL)
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Re: Why CC is so scary

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 20 Aug 2018, 13:26:39

Well I don’t know about that. Yeah I get you can’t sustain panic for long periods, but that doesn’t reduce the risk, it just describes how we become numb. How we are no longer “alive” to the risk. We are sleep walking. Brain dead.
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Re: Why CC is so scary

Unread postby Pops » Mon 20 Aug 2018, 13:56:19

Newfie wrote:Well I don’t know about that. Yeah I get you can’t sustain panic for long periods, but that doesn’t reduce the risk, it just describes how we become numb. How we are no longer “alive” to the risk. We are sleep walking. Brain dead.

Maybe. But really I think most never were, some few tree huggers mostly.

I think it sucks that we didn't start passing out IUDs and pills as soon as they were developed but we didn't, still haven't, and even in this most "advanced" country people who believe in magic fight tooth and nail to force everyone to go forth and multiply.

so here we are.

All the worry and fear in the world isn't going to turn the ship any faster. All one can do for the long term is hope we make it over the population peak without trashing the place totally. Maybe have fewer kids, walk, try not to kill too many bees, use the recycle bin, buy repairable stuff that lasts then wear it out.

Live small and stock up on beans is the best action, says me. :)
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Re: Why CC is so scary

Unread postby jedrider » Mon 20 Aug 2018, 14:30:24

KaiserJeep wrote:Here is my list of the top six problems the planet faces:

1) Human overpopulation which is leading steadily to monoculture food production and food animal overpopulation.
2) Shortages of uncontaminated fresh water which are worsening as time passes.
3) Exhaustion of fossil fuels which will devastate human lives everywhere.
4) Pollution of the oceans and loss of the greatest food source on the planet.
5) Loss of arable soils due to mechanized agriculture and deep well irrigation from disappearing fossil aquifers.
6) Climate Change (most of which is natural) that is moving the most productive temperate lands North, and shrinking their extent.


Here is my list:

1) Humans
2) Climate Change
3) Humans
4) Climate Change
5) Humans
6) Garbage - Pollutants - ETC.
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Re: Why CC is so scary

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 20 Aug 2018, 15:29:25

Pops,
Without being scared they won’t do anything at all. Which seems to be where we are.

Somewhere in your mind you need to set aside a place for things that are truly worrisome and not forget about them. We have that for snakes and spiders. We have not evolved that for cc and various other things where it would be useful.

I see going to a 2 child policy did not start a rash of new births. So maybe they are learning.

Maybe that’s what it takes, that kind of constant stress. If the USA had the same population density as China, per acre of area or soil, we would have about 4.5 billion here. Maybe that would cause us to become sufficiently scared.
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Re: Why CC is so scary

Unread postby Pops » Mon 20 Aug 2018, 15:35:53

Newfie wrote:Pops,
Without being scared they won’t do anything at all. Which seems to be where we are.

We're two old white guys talking about how to scare women from having babies.

Give them birth control and an education and you don't have to scare them into anything.
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Re: Why CC is so scary

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 20 Aug 2018, 15:49:31

"Give them birth control and an education and you don't have to scare them into anything." Well that highlights another problem we are fast running out of time to do much of anything. This transition that Pops refers to that includes more affluence would take time to translate into this cultural change. Of course we also don't have enough Earth to cater to this large poulation of the third world
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Re: Why CC is so scary

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Mon 20 Aug 2018, 15:59:27

@Newfie & Pops,
We are talking about China.
It seems that communist party have decided that there is not enough new births to keep stable population and social problems are looming, so they have introduced 2 children policy.

But if that doesn't work, there will be pregnancy orders issued and those stubborn women who do not comply are going to be visited by *fertilization officers*... what incidentally shows overall stupidity of state organized population control.
I also bet that chinese government will decide that educated women will produce more valuable children, so they will be forcefuly fertilized in case of lack of compliance and their education will not help to reduce fertility.
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Re: Why CC is so scary

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 20 Aug 2018, 16:04:06

Not sure if you are being sarcastic or reporting something actual. Seems far fetched but maybe.

But yes, the Chinese government is scared of the declining population, not enough young workers to pay off the old workers.

The USA also has this problem, wenaddress it with immigration, legal or otherwise.
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