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When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Ibon » Fri 08 Feb 2019, 16:29:16

Newfie wrote:
Personally I’m guessing that when 7.7 billion get real hungry we will eat everything possible to stay alive. Som I would guess we will eat to extinction 50% of all edible mamillian species bigger than a rat.


This is almost like a meme among the doom projections, hungry masses ravaging the remaining natural ecosystems. My observations are exactly the opposite. The emptying out of vast areas with the dismantling of the juggernaut of the human population is going to create giant refuges.

Go ahead Newfie and take a good hard look at the 4th generation of humans removed from gutting an animal, cleaning fish, foraging for tubers and greens. The skill set you assume is still there to ravage and plunder the remaining ecosystems is woefully missing. Is there an App that will show them how?

Rural America is not much better than urban America in this regard. Opiate addicted diabetics in the hinterlands aren't going to get to far with their AK47's. The geese and deer will do just fine!
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Ibon » Fri 08 Feb 2019, 16:36:42

Anecdotal story from my bio region here in the Talamanca Mountains of western Panama. The locals who helped build our cabins, mill the timber, do all the heavy lifting are in their 40's. Some still hunt local game on their free time but they know better not to do this on our reserve.

Anyway, they all speak about how they are the last generation carrying these skills. None and I mean none of the children of the construction workers and woodsmen who have helped us on our project here are following in their parents footsteps. Hunting and poaching has declined rapidly here in the past 10 years not because of environmentalism but because nobody wants to go trudging miles into the woods anymore.

Panama is just a generation behind the USA.

Counter intuitively, it is better that the consequences of overshoot happen in say 30-40 years when we have 8 billion even one more generation removed from their ancestors who had the skill set to take nourishment from natural ecosystems.

From a purely ecological perspective it is better that the tough times start happening when an even greater percentage of modern Kudzu Apes are even further hooked into the digital matrix, even further afield in an abstract matrix far from mother nature. Counter intuitively, this will be of great benefit once the correction comes because the die off will be swift and the impacts toward remaining natural ecosystems minimal.

This explains by the way what appears to be a passive position to date taken by the Overshoot Predator. It just looks passive, he is actually casting a wide net allowing all those kudzu apes to get even further ensnared and dependent on an unsustainable path. There is wisdom in this approach for when the shit does hit the fan Kudzu Apes will be so deep in their constructed universe that the avenues of escape will have been largely closed. This forces a new relationship to emerge among those who get through. It sets the precedent for a new spiritual relationship with our mother nature.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Cog » Fri 08 Feb 2019, 17:48:28

Benevolent communists who will put you in a grave if you disagree with their policies. No thanks.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby GASMON » Fri 08 Feb 2019, 18:14:17

Cog wrote:Benevolent communists who will put you in a grave if you disagree with their policies. No thanks.


I see this right now with Brexit. We Brits voted to leave the EU(SSR). The Elite have decided otherwise. 50 days to go - tick tock. I forsee big troubles here in the UK soon. Civil war ?

Further down the line people worldwide these days are pretty well educated and connected (compared to the past). Most know what is happening, the richness etc of the elite. When TSHTF the elite will be the first to go, easy meat. Yes anarchy will probably follow, a new elite may form, perhaps even uglier than their predecessors. Twas ever thus.

Glad I'll not be there - but worry a little for my (our) kids, and their kids also.

The earth, and Gaia will survive. Perhaps a small human population also. I wish them the best of luck.

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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 09 Feb 2019, 12:59:46

Yeah, you may well be right. Thanks for clarifying.

So what you see is a more pronounced form of “Brave New World.”

It’s always difficult here to discern between what someone is advocating and what someone desires. It’s frequently confused.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Sun 10 Feb 2019, 00:44:10

Further down the line people worldwide these days are pretty well educated and connected (compared to the past).


Not in the US. They got a taste of an educated general population in the 1960s and '70s. They nipped that in the bud in the 1980s.

Now you've got people trained only in what the corporations need and nothing else. Trade schools and specializations.

General distribution and Liberal Arts (philosophy, ethics, critical thinking, and the arts) fell to the wayside. As well as curtailing educational assistance by not keeping up with the costs.

They wanted good Cogs for their machines and nothing else. Now we have a bunch of peasants convinced they are more than that. They are just peasants of a technological age, but peasants none the less.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YR5ApYxkU-U

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iMewtlmkV6c

Why do I care? Because the promise, the potential, of what was happening in my young adult life, was killed in the crib. The new Enlightenment was thrown back into the Dark Ages.

And because of that, we now face extinction along with the rest of the biosphere.
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The level of injustice and wrong you endure is directly determined by how much you quietly submit to. Even to the point of extinction.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Ibon » Sun 10 Feb 2019, 03:17:17

Cid_Yama wrote:
Now you've got people trained only in what the corporations need and nothing else. Trade schools and specializations.

They wanted good Cogs for their machines and nothing else. Now we have a bunch of peasants convinced they are more than that. They are just peasants of a technological age, but peasants none the less.



What comes first the chicken or the egg? Cid blames the corporations. I blame the disposition of the vast majority to yield like sheeples to what ever gets tossed their way. Neither of us are exclusively correct in what is at the end of the day a false dichotomy, a failure of binary choice. Truth be told the corporations tapped into the inherent willingness of people to be sheeples. To settle for so little. You can only point your finger so far to the egregious nature of corporations and government lobbyists before your arrive to the question of why do so many so willingly go along with this grand ruse?

Let alone then ask how was this supposed American malaise able to spread globally almost without any resistance?


Either way, this underscores both Cid's point and my own in this regard. Those is power can either promote enlightenment or take us down the rabbit hole of ecological disaster.

Why do I care? Because the promise, the potential, of what was happening in my young adult life, was killed in the crib. The new Enlightenment was thrown back into the Dark Ages.


The new Enlightenment hasn't died for some. The fact that the vast majority wallow in consumption mediocrity is a testimonial that they were never enlightened in the first place, or that for a moment in their youth encouraged by psychotropic drugs they allowed themselves to crack open a door......only to allow it to shut again.

Let's face it, the vast vast majority though want a script. Enlightenment for them is actually too much freedom. Enlightenment feels like being untethered in the vastness of the universe. For some this is empowering, being free of the script of religious dogma or from conformist messages of consumption dogma. Most though do choose to be dumbed down like mice with myopic visions of the universe, chasing a few grains and ignoring the stars. You cannot really place the blame on corporations and government lobbyists for the masses being so willing to be lead like cattle to the slaughterhouse.

The consequences of human overshoot will be merciless toward the mediocrity and the decadence of the values dominating our culture at the moment.

Purge time.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 10 Feb 2019, 05:26:42

The question of the Wise and Altruistic Elite is so pertinent then is it not.  If humans have inherent weaknesses and fallacies, why would we collectively  entrust a very few with great power over all.  I ask rhetorically but also pose this question to all here.  This question  in my opinion has always held a critical position in the evolution of humanity.  If we dwell on our history and our primitive urges, it seems clear that we cannot rule ourselves collectively.  Or can we?  If a child is from a young age entrusted with responsibility and accountability, that child will tend to grow up with an earnest conviction of their duties and this will cultivate a sense of integrity and even  moral certitude.  Well, what about applying this guidance universally in Society.  What if a society is created that incorporates into it an inviolable set of principles designed to guide all its inhabitants.  These principles would be the true leaders of this society.  A Georgia Guidestones.
Ibon says this attitude  must be absorbed at the most profound level via Religion or something akin to it.  I agree.  It must be made the goal to endowe all residents of this society with this reverance toward these principles.  But I believe something as impersonal as a reverance for Earth is not sufficient.  We cannot really relate so close with inanimate objects.  We must have a reverance for life and even more a love for life, all life.  That reverance for life should be the prime principle and goal of this Society.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby derhundistlos » Sun 10 Feb 2019, 09:57:17

Ibon wrote:
Newfie wrote:
Personally I’m guessing that when 7.7 billion get real hungry we will eat everything possible to stay alive. Som I would guess we will eat to extinction 50% of all edible mamillian species bigger than a rat.


This is almost like a meme among the doom projections, hungry masses ravaging the remaining natural ecosystems. My observations are exactly the opposite. The emptying out of vast areas with the dismantling of the juggernaut of the human population is going to create giant refuges.


When people are hungry, they will do damn near anything. In Missouri during the Great Depression, the state's deer and turkey populations were decimated to the point of extinction. When times improved, the stock had to be imported to resurrect those species hunted to extinction.

To think that people will avoid eating everything in existence once hunger overtakes, due to a lack of knowing how to skin and gut animals, is laughable.

If you want to predict the future of life on Earth, study the history of Easter Island for the island’s human-induced ecological holocaust is a microcosm of the earth. Understand why Easter Island is today a desolate and parched landscape bereft of biodiversity- a deafening silence of life.
Before the arrival of man, Easter Island was Nirvana. Rich volcanic soils, moderate temperatures, abundant rainfall, forests teeming with exotic flora and fauna combined to create a paradise. Among Easter Island’s species found nowhere else was the world’s largest palm tree. This now extinct behemoth grew to a height of 100 feet and had a girth of six feet.
Then the Destroyer of Worlds arrived in the form of seafaring Polynesians. For a time, the land produced such bounty that sufficient leisure time existed for the human inhabitants to create the toppled over ghostly stone statues that still dot the island. A large human population that ignored the balance of nature. Over time, human population numbers grew far out of proportion to what was sustainable- poor farming practices eroded fertile soil, animal and plant species found nowhere else were hunted to extinction. When the very last tree on the island was cut down, the Islanders sealed their fate. What kind of madness would allow this to happen (sound familiar)? No trees meant no canoes with which to harvest the ocean’s bounty and final remaining source of protein.
The result: When Captain James Cook discovered the island, he was shocked to find a small, parasite-infested human population engaged in cannibalistic internecine tribal warfare. After eliminating all natural protein sources, the inhabitants turned on each other for the only remaining food source- human flesh. Welcome to the future. And don’t forget your new and improved allotment of Soylent Green. Our only home, the earth, is an island oasis in the vastness of space.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 10 Feb 2019, 10:02:47

Ibon,
(Derhun...we were writing at the same time)

You point to how the locals are loosing the hunting skills.

Look to Africa where Bush meat is clearing the forests.

The difference is your folks are relatively well fed, they are not.

Humans are adaptable and will learn. Europe has very little wild space left, but oh so many people. NA has some wild space but oh so many heavily armed people.

About 1890 white tail deer were so rare in PA they had to be reintroduced from Ohio. I’ve personally seen the RURAL deer population decrease dramatically, even under reduced hunting pressure. Meanwhile urban and suburban deer populations have soared. The deer have adapedted to human habitation. But that also makes them extremely vulnerable to human predation. Their extinction in a hungry suburban environment assured. I expect them to become totally extinct.

The difference in the deer population was that about 1900 restrictions were introduced and preserves (game lands) were created. These provided enclaves where they could regrow their population. The difference was enforcement of the laws. And probably also better, more available food sources. People moved from game meat because they had to, it was gone. And several game wardens died in the line of duty. When the rule of law disappears, when folks get hungry, then the animals will come under pressure.

But this starts to become like arguing religion. Something I have little time for. Your belief system requires a rebirth, a rejuvenation. Mine does not, it accepts dead as dead, fini, no more. Not that I want that end, I despise it, but I accept it is likely.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 10 Feb 2019, 10:13:29

Derhundistlos,

There seems to be a lot of revisionist history about Easter Island. Your story sounds most believable to me but expect a lot of contrarian views. I think that is just an example of the lengths we will go to preserving our hope.

I’ve read a few stories of folks doing northern exploration. I call them shoe eaters. The introduction of firearms to northern populations drastically altered their life, they killed wantonly and deeply reduced populations.

And so it goes.

NTW, my Father was a young poor man during the Depression. He did did things he was not proud of including killingnmany, many deer.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby GASMON » Sun 10 Feb 2019, 13:18:45

Plummeting insect numbers 'threaten collapse of nature'

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... -of-nature

Exclusive: Insects could vanish within a century at current rate of decline, says global review

The rate of insect extinction is eight times faster than that of mammals, birds and reptiles.

The world’s insects are hurtling down the path to extinction, threatening a “catastrophic collapse of nature’s ecosystems”, according to the first global scientific review.

More than 40% of insect species are declining and a third are endangered, the analysis found. The rate of extinction is eight times faster than that of mammals, birds and reptiles. The total mass of insects is falling by a precipitous 2.5% a year, according to the best data available, suggesting they could vanish within a century.

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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 10 Feb 2019, 15:00:46

Thanks, Gas.

From the same article:

“When you consider 80% of biomass of insects has disappeared in 25-30 years, it is a big concern.”
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby derhundistlos » Sun 10 Feb 2019, 15:37:38

Newfie wrote:Derhundistlos,

There seems to be a lot of revisionist history about Easter Island. Your story sounds most believable to me but expect a lot of contrarian views. I think that is just an example of the lengths we will go to preserving our hope.


Not just Easter Island but all past civilizations collapsed due to mankind's destruction of the environment. There are plenty of examples from the Middle East, Central and South America, and Mexico.

I agree with you that the contrarian (denialist) views arose as a means to discount Man's impact on the natural world as promulgated by the business as usual crowd. I concur with the scientific consensus on the history of Easter Island, first developed by Dr. Jared Diamond.

The condition of the Islanders described in Dr. Cook's log is not debatable. So the question remains for the denialists, who created the stone statues and what explained the miserable conditions of the people? Something bad happened otherwise Cook would have discovered a thriving population.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby derhundistlos » Sun 10 Feb 2019, 15:47:37

I forgot to add some further questions for the denialists. What caused the mass extinction of the island's plant and animal life? Are we to believe the residents discovered by Captain Cook arrived to and settled Easter Island with cannibalism as the only and accepted means of protein sustenance?
I have read the denialist explanations and they all are full of gaping holes and inconsistencies. As Newfie correctly indicated, these "alternative" views represent a desperate attempt by the status quo crowd to relieve concerns and to provide a rationale for continuing business as usual. Yet, with every passing day, their furious attempts appear more and more ridiculous. Most people now acknowledge, whether they choose to or not, that something is very wrong with our way of life.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sun 10 Feb 2019, 16:09:15

derhundistlos wrote:I forgot to add some further questions for the denialists. What caused the mass extinction of the island's plant and animal life? Are we to believe the residents discovered by Captain Cook arrived to and settled Easter Island with cannibalism as the only and accepted means of protein sustenance?
I have read the denialist explanations and they all are full of gaping holes and inconsistencies. As Newfie correctly indicated, these "alternative" views represent a desperate attempt by the status quo crowd to relieve concerns and to provide a rationale for continuing business as usual. Yet, with every passing day, their furious attempts appear more and more ridiculous. Most people now acknowledge, whether they choose to or not, that something is very wrong with our way of life.



Really? That must be why the human population is approaching 7.8 Billion, with higher standards of living and better health for everybody on average, including the poorest people on Earth.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby derhundistlos » Sun 10 Feb 2019, 16:55:09

KaiserJeep wrote:
derhundistlos wrote:I forgot to add some further questions for the denialists. What caused the mass extinction of the island's plant and animal life? Are we to believe the residents discovered by Captain Cook arrived to and settled Easter Island with cannibalism as the only and accepted means of protein sustenance?
I have read the denialist explanations and they all are full of gaping holes and inconsistencies. As Newfie correctly indicated, these "alternative" views represent a desperate attempt by the status quo crowd to relieve concerns and to provide a rationale for continuing business as usual. Yet, with every passing day, their furious attempts appear more and more ridiculous. Most people now acknowledge, whether they choose to or not, that something is very wrong with our way of life.



Really? That must be why the human population is approaching 7.8 Billion, with higher standards of living and better health for everybody on average, including the poorest people on Earth.


Yeah, that's what the Easter Islanders thought as well at the height of their civilization. A typical fool who refuses to learn the lessons of history. You're a typical spoiled American who thinks his way of life is non-negotiable. You got some big surprises coming in the not too distant future. I can't wait to learn who you blame for this (not yourself, naturally).

By the way, to suggest a higher standard of living and better health for everybody ("on average"-whatever that means) is patently stupid. Tell that to the millions starving in sub-Saharan Africa.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 10 Feb 2019, 17:02:19

Right Derhund. This article has startling statistics related to the great global inequality, poverty and destitution. And even cites things are getting worse
http://www.globalissues.org/article/26/ ... -and-stats
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 10 Feb 2019, 18:52:47

Not according to this.
https://ourworldindata.org/poverty-at-h ... erty-lines
The short answer is that global poverty rates have also been falling above the $1.90 line. This means that, although much still needs to be done, progress has been real. The historical reductions in global extreme poverty are not merely the result of people moving marginally above some arbitrary misery threshold.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sun 10 Feb 2019, 19:56:24

Correct, vtsnowedin. My own remarks were based on UN statistics and worldwide averages, and even after accounting for currency fluctuations, modest improvements were noted world-wide.

Popular sentiments about DOOM abound here at peakoil.com, but the statistics don't support any such conclusions. In spite of the expanding worldwide population, everybody everywhere saw modest improvements since the last measurement. Learn to distinguish changes is the reporting of events from the events themselves, because almost everybody in the media has an agenda of one sort or another.

As for the "mass die-off beginning", as I have said many times, the present mass extinction began about 1800 and has been ongoing for about two centuries. I suspect that in most people's minds, the meaning of "mass dieoff" is when the rate of death very much exceeds the birthrate and the overall world population noticeably and suddenly declines. My guess about THAT is somewhere between two and five centuries from today. Don't hold your breath while waiting.
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