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When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby derhundistlos » Mon 07 Jan 2019, 02:00:59

asg70 wrote:This may help push things off a bit.

https://newatlas.com/photosynthesis-pho ... ost/57868/


2018 GLOBAL TEMPS. 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD

In a preliminary report, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says global temperatures in 2018 are set to be the fourth highest on record.
Further, the WMO pointed out that the 20 warmest years on record have been in the past 22 years, and that "2018 is on course to be the 4th warmest year on record." This would mean that the past four years – "2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018 – are also the four warmest years in the series".

The signs of impending ecological collapse are everywhere.

https://phys.org/news/2018-11-temperatu ... t.html#jCp
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby derhundistlos » Mon 07 Jan 2019, 02:08:56

Cog wrote:You can only do so many failed doomer predictions whether it be climate, economic, or peak oil doom before the average person tunes you out.


‘Beware the beast Man. Alone among God’s primates, he kills for sport, and lust, and greed. Shun him: If he is permitted to breed in great numbers, he will make a desert of his home and yours. For he is, the Great Destroyer.’

~~29th Scroll, 6th Verse Buddhist Kangyur(One Word), 795 BC~~
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Cog » Mon 07 Jan 2019, 02:32:37

Quotes from a movie about talking apes doesn't really help your case. LOL
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Revi » Mon 07 Jan 2019, 08:27:12

I guess the climate folks are predicting doom on a worldwide scale soon.

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com

"We will all be boiled alive like lobsters in a massively humid atmosphere and converted into stardust."

And we thought we had the corner on doom!

The problem is that it might be true...
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby derhundistlos » Mon 07 Jan 2019, 09:13:25

Cog wrote:Quotes from a movie about talking apes doesn't really help your case. LOL


Maybe this will make you feel better.......

‘I'd like to share a revelation. It came to me when I tried to classify the human species. I realized that you're not mammals. Every mammal on this planet instinctively develops an equilibrium with the surrounding environment, but you humans do not. You move to an area, you rapidly multiply beyond the carrying capacity of the ecosystem and consume until every natural resource is exhausted. The only way you can survive is to metastasize the human contagion to new, unspoiled environs. There is another organism on this planet that follows a uniquely similar destructive pattern -- a virus. You are a plague upon the Earth, and we are the cure.’
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby derhundistlos » Mon 07 Jan 2019, 09:40:48

Cog wrote:You can only do so many failed doomer predictions whether it be climate, economic, or peak oil doom before the average person tunes you out.


More doomer predictions for your reading pleasure:

SOCIETY RISKS GLOBAL ECOLOGICAL CATASTROPHE DUE TO DOMINO EFFECT OF TIPPING POINTS

According to a recently published article in the journal “Nature”, scientists warn policymakers severely underestimate or fail to consider the ever-escalating risks of ecological tipping points due to the amplification effect of natural systems.

For example, Amazon deforestation is responsible for multiple “cascading effects” – deforestation causes weakening and unpredictable rain systems, thereby causing lowland equatorial rainforests becoming savannah, which results in reduced water supplies for cities like São Paulo and crops in the foothills of the Andes. This, in turn, exacerbates deforestation as people look to replace degraded environments. And so the process of environmental destruction begins anew. I saw this first-hand when six months ago I was on a night flight to Manaus, Brazil. As we approached the Amazon region a deathly silence overtook the plane as passengers and crew stared out of the windows in disbelief. Before us was a vision of hell. Over the entire horizon, the Amazon was burning.

The signs are everywhere as the most virulently anti-ecological president, Trump, and his Republicon enablers in Congress pounded nail after nail into the human extinction coffin.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... study-says
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 07 Jan 2019, 11:27:21

Revi wrote:I guess the climate folks are predicting doom on a worldwide scale soon.

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com

"We will all be boiled alive like lobsters in a massively humid atmosphere and converted into stardust."

And we thought we had the corner on doom!

The problem is that it might be true...



The Paleoclimate record and actual science say otherwise. Yes we might tip Earth back into the hothouse climate state, but for the couple of billion years Earth has spent roughly two thirds of the time life has existed in that state and the other third in a climate like today with ice at one or both poles.

I get it, change is scary. Change is not the end of all things, it is a rebirth into new things different from the old things.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Mon 07 Jan 2019, 13:04:09

To further elaborate on what Tanada says, the difference this time is that humans with human intelligence, accumulated knowledge, and modern technology exist. Whether or not we are actually changing world climate is still controversial. However one thing is obvious: we exist in a world with lots of raw materials available to salvage, and the ability to fashion these into machinery for HVAC and Agriculture.

Imagine a world in the "hothouse climate" that Tanada mentioned, humans living underground and undersea by the millions or billions, with massive solar power collection and tropical crops on the surface.

Spaceship Earth. A prophetic SF novel was written about such a world in 1968 by John Brunner, titled Stand on Zanzibar. Published shortly after Rachel Carson's seminal environmental work Silent Spring, it correctly predicted widespread human overpopulation, environmental degradation, the internet, pervasive digital trechnology, genetic engineering, etc. The title of the book derives from the fact that 30+ billion humans, standing shoulder to shoulder, would cover the island of Zanzibar from shore to shore.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 09:26:25

KaiserJeep wrote:Imagine a world in the "hothouse climate" that Tanada mentioned, humans living underground and undersea by the millions or billions, with massive solar power collection and tropical crops on the surface.


Given the massive heat capacity of water it is child's play to imagine building homes with an insulating layer of water in between the interior and exterior. Water even one meter thick all around would be sufficient to insulate against the harshest winter or hottest summer. Yet we choose to use much cheaper methods today. An Earth Shelter Home while not as good as a Water Sheltered Home provides a massive defense against exterior conditions. If you look at the history of structures in harsh environments you will often find examples of buried or semi-buried architecture. In Scotland's far north environments in the 4000 ybp era people built stone lined structures with thatch roofs in narrow gully's and then filled in the space between the gully and stone with soil. In Poland right through the late Middle Ages most 'peasant cottages' were what modern people would think of as a root cellar with a thatch roof covering it. In both cases the surrounding soil prevented interior temperatures from fluctuating very much, especially with a small central fire pit burning most of the winter. early European settlers in the midwest where I live built log cabins with only one or two small windows covered in sheets of vellum that let in a dim sunlight without letting the wind in. A 12 inch log has pretty good insulating properties if properly chinked and with opening kept to the minimum.

Modern folks have become extremely spoiled with thin walls and cheap HVAC. We love big glass windows to let in lots of daylight despite the huge energy cost they cause, then we put blinds and drapes in front of the glass and spend all our time looking at idiot boxes and flat panel displays! 200 years ago where I live a glass window instead of a thin vellum cover was considered a sign of extreme wealth. The glass used back then was also thicker and generally had gas bubbles trapped in it, not to mention ripples and distortions. The very best glass was used to make mirrors, and most of those were hand held and small because sheets of clear distortion and bubble free glass were very hard to come by to make them.

Anyhow, you take a modern urban/suburban American and put them in an earth shelter hut or log cabin and they would think it was the end of the world despite the facts that a tiny fire in that type of shelter keeps the interior livable in extreme weather.

Now if you combine high tech and earth/water shelter you could replace all the windows with flat panel displays and after a day or so the residents wouldn't consciously believe they were sub-level, and your energy bill would be much smaller than a thin walled house with lots of 'natural light'.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 11:51:38

If you look at the history of structures in harsh environments you will often find examples of buried or semi-buried architecture. In Scotland's far north environments in the 4000 ybp era people built stone lined structures with thatch roofs in narrow gully's and then filled in the space between the gully and stone with soil.


An acquaintance of mine lived in a seventeenth-century farmhouse in the Colwyn Valley in North Wales. It was a pretty amazing structure, small but one wall was almost all fireplace. The walls were about 1.5 feet thick, a mix of stone and masonry materials and the windows were double pained. It was extremely warm in the winter and due to it's location and elevated ceiling seemed to be cool in the hottest summer (although that is very common in North Wales).

Another former colleague of mine retired to a ranch he had bought years ago that is situated in the outer Foothills of Southern Alberta. He built the house so the back half was built into a hillside with the roof being covered in soil, grass trees etc. The exposed piece was south facing so it captured heat most of the day. He had a cement floor with one south facing wall that was also cement, both painted black to absorb heat. He also put in a wood stove and a large fireplace to heat the house but after the first winter he told me they hardly had to use it as the passive solar benefits were sufficient even in -30 C winter weather.

The point is the tools are there to make efficient buildings but apparently they just don't resonate with modern architects.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Pops » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 13:02:17

Tanada wrote:Given the massive heat capacity of water it is child's play to imagine building homes with an insulating layer of water in between the interior and exterior. Water even one meter thick all around would be sufficient to insulate against the harshest winter or hottest summer.

Hmm, I'm no child but I can't imagine a low tech or even high tech way to build a meter-thick water filled wall that would last any time. If I build a poor 2x4 wall about the worst that happens is it rots, the biggest challenge in building to last is shedding water. What happens if a water wall weighing tons fails?

Of course water is not an insulator but it is a great conductor of heat so yeah it would be good mass, just like stone or brick or concrete. Mass acts like a thermal flywheel smoothing daily fluctuations, in a climate where lows are say, 0º-40ºF, after a period of time a massive exterior wall would be 20ºF - 24 hours a day. Granted 20º isn't 0º but ...

Earth sheltering is better. The earth is so massive the fluctuation is smaller and the period is the entire year. But moisture and humidity control is hard, especially with low tech.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Cog » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 13:24:26

Yeah great until that wall of water freezes solid and it takes a week of sunshine to unthaw it and you live in a refrigerator in the meantime.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 13:50:39

Pops wrote:
Tanada wrote:Given the massive heat capacity of water it is child's play to imagine building homes with an insulating layer of water in between the interior and exterior. Water even one meter thick all around would be sufficient to insulate against the harshest winter or hottest summer.

Hmm, I'm no child but I can't imagine a low tech or even high tech way to build a meter-thick water filled wall that would last any time. If I build a poor 2x4 wall about the worst that happens is it rots, the biggest challenge in building to last is shedding water. What happens if a water wall weighing tons fails?

Of course water is not an insulator but it is a great conductor of heat so yeah it would be good mass, just like stone or brick or concrete. Mass acts like a thermal flywheel smoothing daily fluctuations, in a climate where lows are say, 0º-40ºF, after a period of time a massive exterior wall would be 20ºF - 24 hours a day. Granted 20º isn't 0º but ...

Earth sheltering is better. The earth is so massive the fluctuation is smaller and the period is the entire year. But moisture and humidity control is hard, especially with low tech.


For the water wall scenario I was thinking modern technology to do the 'underwater structures' KJ mentioned in his post. Something like building a big water tank with a smaller air tank inside would do the trick on land. Naturally you would need openings to pass from outside into the inner tank, and it would be an expensive proposition. Now imagine instead sinking a concrete box like a prefab basement into a pond. The water in the pond does the same job and is a lot easier and cheaper to build than the tank inside a tank approach. You can even pretend you are a medieval lord with a moat and a drawbridge :-D

Seriously though earth shelter is good enough for 90% of cases. You might need the water option is someplace like the tropics if sea level temps get too high during the day for human comfort, but in almost all other locations earth shelter is a lot easier to build and there is less worry about water leaking into your home.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 13:52:44

Actually, the original solar home was built in the 16th Century in Trombe, France. The South-facing wall was glazed (which in the 1500's meant leaded glass diamond-shaped panes, soldered together), a few inches from a dark stone wall. In the morning, the curtain behind the glass is opened, and sunlight warms the wall all day. Then at night, the curtain is closed for insulation, and the warm wall heats the home all night.

This particular solar heated home is 500+ years old, and still working. There has been periodic replacement of the fabric curtain and a few window repairs, but this is one of the oldest heating systems in the world. Today's architects call this form of solar heat a "Trombe Wall".
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 13:55:11

Cog wrote:Yeah great until that wall of water freezes solid and it takes a week of sunshine to unthaw it and you live in a refrigerator in the meantime.


Unthaw=freeze lol. That aside, you live in Illinois, when is the last time you saw the water on Lake Michigan grow an ice cap a meter thick? Realistically in temperate climates like we have today water rare freezes more than 24 inches thick in the very harshest winter. Also presuming you are building this system with modern techniques and materials there is this stuff called antifreeze you can add to the water or failing that some plain old rubbing alcohol will drop the freezing point far below the sustained winter temperatures in these parts.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Pops » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 14:03:21

Tanada wrote:For the water wall scenario I was thinking modern technology to do the 'underwater structures' KJ mentioned in his post. Something like building a big water tank with a smaller air tank inside would do the trick on land. Naturally you would need openings to pass from outside into the inner tank, and it would be an expensive proposition. Now imagine instead sinking a concrete box like a prefab basement into a pond. The water in the pond does the same job and is a lot easier and cheaper to build than the tank inside a tank approach. You can even pretend you are a medieval lord with a moat and a drawbridge :-D

Ah ha!
I like it.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 14:47:55

How do we get all of LA or NYC to move to earth sheltered homes?

Wells Morelocks?
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 15:13:42

When the power requirements of high rise structures, the food transport costs, and the pollution concentrates are calculated, large dense cities are unsustainable, compared to rural or even suburban living.

The six billion who need to die to fall back to a sustainable human population level will be largely from urban areas.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 16:32:37

rockdoc123 wrote:Another former colleague of mine retired to a ranch he had bought years ago that is situated in the outer Foothills of Southern Alberta. He built the house so the back half was built into a hillside with the roof being covered in soil, grass trees etc. The exposed piece was south facing so it captured heat most of the day. He had a cement floor with one south facing wall that was also cement, both painted black to absorb heat. He also put in a wood stove and a large fireplace to heat the house but after the first winter he told me they hardly had to use it as the passive solar benefits were sufficient even in -30 C winter weather.

The point is the tools are there to make efficient buildings but apparently they just don't resonate with modern architects.

Sounds like my house built ten years ago while I was a member here. It's built into a hillside, but without the earth-berm roof. (That invites trouble from water and adds unnecessary structural cost here in coastal california). My house has the rest and more. Cement floor with individual zoned hydronic heating. Each room has a thermostat and its own temperature. One room is kind of a root cellar. The whole thing is south facing, long and narrow to capture the sun.

The sun room is unique, has glass on top as well as front, because coastal California is always cool, so I want the summer sun to enter the sunroom and keep it warm. In the rest of USA you would want the south walls of the building to have a very long overhang, to keep the hot summer sun off the building.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 17:34:52

Meanwhile:

Wild Monkeys With Killer Herpes are Breeding Like Crazy In Florida

https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/01 ... n-florida/

https://www.wftv.com/news/local/monkeys ... /552589371

A quick reminder: there’s a band of feral monkeys running wild in Central Florida that carries a type of herpes lethal to humans. The mischievous simians—who are not shy around people—can transmit deadly disease with just a scratch, nip, or fling of poo.

Last year, experts warned that the rhesus macaques are a public health threat. It now seems that the monkey business is likely to get worse, with a wildlife expert revealing that their population is set to double in the next few years.

“It’s going to be a problem… Continual growth of that population is going to occur without intervention,” Steve Johnson told Florida ABC-affiliate WFTV in a report published January 3. Johnson is a professor and wildlife expert at the University of Florida and part of a team of researchers that has followed the monkeys for years.

Early last year, Johnson and colleagues published a study estimating that about 25 percent of Florida’s population of free-wheeling monkeys carries the deadly virus, known as macacine herpesvirus 1 (McHV-1), herpes B, or monkey B virus. The study appeared in the February issue of Emerging Infectious Diseases.

In humans, McHV-1 can cause a flu-like illness that can progress to neurological problems, such as double vision and paralysis. At that point, an infected person is likely to die of the infection.

The population got its start during the 1930s and 1940s when the captain of a glass-bottom boat released a handful of macaques on an island in Florida’s Silver River to amuse tourists. The monkeys, which are excellent swimmers, established in the surrounding Silver Spring State Park and nearby Ocala National Forest.
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