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When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 18 Jun 2018, 14:52:16

All depends on how the rate of current extinction has been calculated. Awhile back there was a paper written that claimed scientists had assumed more species than are actually present.

Costello, M et al, 2013. Can we naEarth'sh’s species before they go extinct? Science, 25. 339, pp 413-416

Some people despair that most species will go extinct before they are discovered. However, such worries result from overestimates of how many species may exist, beliefs that the expertise to describe species is decreasing, and alarmist estimates of extinction rates. We argue that the number of species on Earth today is 5 ± 3 million, of which 1.5 million are named. New databases show that there are more taxonomists describing species than ever before, and their number is increasing faster than the rate of species description. Conservation efforts and species survival in secondary habitats are at least delaying extinctions. Extinction rates are, however, poorly quantified, ranging from 0.01 to 1% (at most 5%) per decade. We propose practical actions to improve taxonomic productivity and associated understanding and conservation of biodiversity.


And others claim the rates of extinction are often greatly overstated:

Briggs, J.C. 2017. Emergence of a sixth mass extinction? Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, V 122, 2, pp 243- 248 https://doi.org/10.1093/biolinnean/blx063

Recently, two articles were published in leading scientific journals, each calling attention to an emerging mass extinction. The two are complementary in that they reached the same conclusion by using data from contrasting environments. But, the important question in each case is, can the beginning of a mass extinction be confidently predicted from the evidence presented? The two articles are the latest of several publications that have stated the Earth is in the beginning of a great extinction episode that will eventually result in the loss of at about 75% of all living species. The most recent extinction of this magnitude occurred at the close of the Cretaceous about 65 million years ago. The new mass extinction prognosis began about 22 years ago and was based on estimates of species extinction, due to human activities, that had reached thousands of species per year. Although such unsupported estimates soon gave way to more realistic approximations based on documented records, the spectre of a mass extinction has remained. However, I have found evidence that human-caused extinctions have amounted to only about 1.5 species per year for the last 500 years and that these losses have probably been equalled or surpassed by species born (speciation) during that time. Without evidence of substantial net species loss, mass extinction becomes a speculation without substance. The world’s greatest conservation problem is not species extinction but population decline to the point where many species exist only as remnants of their former abundance.


And others point out that stress on the system whether it be climate-related or otherwise can cause species to migrate and create hybrids which can become new species.

Thomas, C. 2013. The Antropocene could raise biological diversity. Nature, 502,7, doi:10.1038/502007a

Speciation by hybridization is likely to be a signature of the Anthropocene. A new hybrid species of Rhagoletis fruitfly has colonized invasive honeysuckle in North America. A primrose species, Primula kewensis, arose by hybridization and continues to be propagated in London’s Kew Gardens. And five species (Spartina anglica and four Senecio species) that have arisen by hybridization between native and introduced species in Britain have become naturalized. Remarkably, the introduction of plants to Britain seems to have increased the global species list. These five (out of a flora of 2,711 naturalized and native species) suggest a speciation rate (0.00184 per original species in the past 150 years) similar to the extinction rate reported for mammals over the past 100 years. If sustained, with no subsequent extinctions, it would be sufficient to increase the number of plant species by 20% within 15,000 years.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 18 Jun 2018, 15:39:10

rockdoc123 wrote:Once again you demonstrate your innate ability to misinterpret pretty much everything that is ever said.


Once again you demonstrate your innate ability self-contradict yourself to the point that your posts become gibberish. Look at your last post:

rockdoc123 wrote:I was referring to the extinction event (Permian)


OK. Got that.

rockdoc123 wrote:Wasn't talking about specific geologic events at all. .


Bingo. There's the self-contradiction, right on schedule. First you say you are talking specifically about the Permian extinction event and then you claim you weren't talking about any specific event at all. So the net result is gibberish.

It happens every time. Sometime you contradict yourself in the same post---sometimes it takes a few posts for you to get completely sideways with your self-contradictions. Its really rather funny.

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self-contradiction----it can be very funny :)

CHEERS!
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 18 Jun 2018, 15:43:20

Hey Plant, give RD a break he did try and answer my question sort of
:lol: :lol:
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 18 Jun 2018, 15:51:12

Bingo. There's the self-contradiction, right on schedule. First you say you are talking specifically about the Permian extinction event and then you claim you weren't talking about any specific event at all. So the net result is gibberish.


you do realize that it took place over close to 70,000 years with various events happening at different times don't you? If not, again your reading comprehension needs a bit of work doesn't it. The Permian extinction as it is referred to was a series of extinction events over that time period, at least 3 major pulses.

It happens every time. Sometime you contradict yourself in the same post---sometimes it takes a few posts for you to get completely sideways with your self-contradictions. Its really rather funny.


Sorry no contradiction here at all. I think you need to read up a bit on what the Permian extinction entails.

If you really are a geophysicist I'm surprised you didn't learn about that as an undergrad, it was required as I remember. :roll:
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 18 Jun 2018, 15:56:56

Hey Plant, give RD a break he did try and answer my question sort of


If you don't think that was an answer then let me explain it to you in very simple English....there is a wealth of publications out there (I point to 3) that suggest 1. the count regarding extinct species is flawed because scientists actually don't know how many were out there to begin with nor how extensive, 2. the method of estimating extinction rates is flawed with very wide ranges of estimates and 3. there are new species being created as a result of environmental stress and these are not taken into account.

Don't think I can make it simpler than that.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 18 Jun 2018, 16:08:55

Thanks RD,just kidding
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 18 Jun 2018, 16:37:39

rockdoc123 wrote:
If you really are a geophysicist ....


If you really are a rock doc then you would have a Ph.d. in some branch of earth science. But you don't.

Cheers!

-----------------
PS...lets go back to discussing the thread topic please?

I agree with those scientists who think mass extinction is currently underway.

earths-sixth-mass-extinction-event-already-underway-scientists-warn

So far the current mass extinction isn't as severe as past events, but then its still in progress. 8) :idea: :!:
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 18 Jun 2018, 17:21:41

if you really are a rock doc then you would have a Ph.d. in some branch of earth science. But you don't.


'fraid I do sunshine, taught at university to undergrads and grads as well as 30 years in the oil and gas industry. Published papers which dealt into subjects including rock mechanics, organic geochemistry, stratigraphy, tectonics and petroleum geology. But believe what you want.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 18 Jun 2018, 18:08:55

rockdoc123 wrote:
if you really are a rock doc then you would have a Ph.d. in some branch of earth science. But you don't.


'fraid I do sunshine.... believe what you want.


You already admitted in another thread that you don't actually have a Ph.d. But you've never previously admitted you "do sunshine". Do you inject it or rub it on or do you apply it in suppository form?

Cheers!
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 18 Jun 2018, 19:48:05

You already admitted in another thread that you don't actually have a Ph.d. But you've never previously admitted you "do sunshine". Do you inject it or rub it on or do you apply it in suppository form?


complete BS. Never said that, ever. Please show us all where I said that otherwise perhaps you can apologize to me and everyone else here for your very purposeful lying.

I have been very consistent in my background, which is exactly as I said...Ph.D., taught university, 30 years in oil and gas industry and published in a number of areas in geology. That has not changed since I joined here over a decade ago.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby efarmer » Mon 18 Jun 2018, 22:09:58

rockdoc123, has been a reference reservoir to me here for many years. He opines if he has
game and data, he is polite and generous to educate when he senses passion that lacks
real information or experience. i am sure he is a fallible human being, but a fair minded
and generous "goodun". He errs to the kind side of an argument choosing to inform rather
than bloviate. He ain't perfect, none of us are, but when you come out here and interject
hot bloviaton in the face of careful and honest discourse, I see someone throwing
a turd into the soup of honest debate just to see it make a big splash. Fake views.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 19 Jun 2018, 01:29:51

efarmer wrote: ..... throwing a turd into the soup of honest debate just to see it make a big splash..


rockdoc questioned my professional background and I responded by questioning his professional background.

I'd ask you about your professional background as well, but based on the coprophagic way you make soup I think I'll pass.

Cheers!
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby M_B_S » Tue 19 Jun 2018, 02:01:44

Damm Kindergarten .....

Put your PhDs in your...... pocket "Zwerge"!

Image

=>

https://interestingengineering.com/solv ... -1-million
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby Yonnipun » Tue 19 Jun 2018, 07:22:32

Ever since humans started to use tools to hunt the megafauna is doomed to extinction. Just look in the past and see what magnificient creatures once lived and disappeard soon after the arrival on humans. Elephants, lions, tigers etc are all going to be extinct in the nearest future. Sad but there is nothing that could be done to save those animals.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 19 Jun 2018, 08:26:48

Yonnipun wrote:Ever since humans started to use tools to hunt the megafauna is doomed to extinction. Just look in the past and see what magnificient creatures once lived and disappeard soon after the arrival on humans. Elephants, lions, tigers etc are all going to be extinct in the nearest future. Sad but there is nothing that could be done to save those animals.


This, unfortunately, seems to be the case.

I wonder what it’s like to have multiple personalities, and to know one of your selfs is a murderer.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 19 Jun 2018, 09:00:14

Actually, the one place where lions, elephants etc did not go extinct was subsaharan Africa.

So really, all we need to do is eliminate all the Kudzu apes who escaped from that, our native habitat! :)
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 19 Jun 2018, 09:05:02

rockdoc questioned my professional background and I responded by questioning his professional background.


nope, merely pointed out that as a geophysicist there is a bunch of this stuff (such as the timelines and details around the extinctions) you should have been exposed to as an undergrad but you currently seem ignorant of. Maybe you were sleeping in class. :roll:
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 19 Jun 2018, 09:11:32

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... are_btn_tw
Humans just 0.01% of all life but have destroyed 83% of wild mammals – study
Groundbreaking assessment of all life on Earth reveals humanity’s surprisingly tiny part in it as well as our disproportionate impact
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 19 Jun 2018, 16:21:54

rockdoc123 wrote: as a geophysicist there is a bunch of this stuff (such as the timelines and details around the extinctions) you should have been exposed to ...


As a failed professor there is a bunch of stuff you should have been exposed to as well. Unfortunately, you seem to have forgotten much of it in the 30 years since you left academia, and so I find myself correcting your errors.

I'm always glad to help!

Cheers!
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 3

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 19 Jun 2018, 16:36:55

As a failed professor there is a bunch of stuff you should have been exposed to as well. Unfortunately, you seem to have forgotten much of it in the 30 years since you left academia, and so I find myself correcting your errors.


Hardly failed, went to industry for an immediate doubling of salary and to follow my wife's career change. It was purposeful for sure.

As to you correcting me it would be interesting to see where you actually think you did that correctly....hasn't happened as far as I can tell and the last time you tried you got 3.5 millimetres multiplied by 9 years to equal 30 centimetres. Not only did you claim this was the case once, but you posted it twice and demanded that I admit you were right the first time even though I had pointed out you were in error. So I think it best you keep your corrections to yourself. :roll:
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