Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Whats the tight oil prospect for Saudi Arabia?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Whats the tight oil prospect for Saudi Arabia?

Unread postby C8 » Tue 29 Mar 2016, 09:54:00

I am wondering if Saudi Arabia is doing the smart thing by pumping at max levels.

If they have lots of tight oil potential then they should be able to switch to fracking as their giant fields deplete and keep up the pace.

But if there is little tight oil in SA then they are draining their bucket and will eventually need to import US tight oil.

anybody here know about their tight oil potential?

thanks
User avatar
C8
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1074
Joined: Sun 14 Apr 2013, 09:02:48

Re: Whats the tight oil prospect for Saudi Arabia?

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 29 Mar 2016, 11:39:19

The vast majority of shale reservoirs the Saudis are interested in is located in the Rub Al Khali. Because of depth of burial this area is mainly gas prone. The Saudis would welcome large gas reserves as they could displace fuel oil as an energy source leaving larger oil reserves for export.

As I remember the potential shale reservoirs in the Jurassic and Cretaceous strata were never buried deep enough in and around the major producing fields which would result in rock rheology unsuitable to fracking. Haven't looked at it for years so there may be new thoughts on this.
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7685
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Whats the tight oil prospect for Saudi Arabia?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 29 Mar 2016, 12:28:55

Just to add a bit to Doc's excellent post. The vast majority of global s hale formations have ZERO oil production potential. Which should be a surprise given that the vast majority of shale formations in the US have been PROVEN to have very little to no oil potential. The Eagle Ford and Bakken produce 80%+ of the US "shale oil" but from a volumetric standpoint the combined thickness of those two formations represent less then 1% of the total thickness of all the shales in the US. Heck: in the same area where the EFS has been played it represents less then 1% of the shale volume and the Gulf of Mexico Basin is one of the greatest hydrocarbon provinces on the planet.

It not only takes high oil prices to make a commercial shale oil reservoir but also some rather rare geologic conditions. Note that when oil was $90+/bbl companies tested a lot of shales In the US and around the world with almost no positive results.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 11397
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: Whats the tight oil prospect for Saudi Arabia?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 29 Mar 2016, 12:56:27

The organic-rich shale of the Lower Silurian Qusaiba Member of the Qalibah Formation is one of the most prolific source rocks on the planet and is thought to be the source of oil found in the super-giant Ghawar field in Saudi Arabia.

This shale would be a potential target for a shale oil program in KSA.

Image
Never underestimate the ability of Joe Biden to f#@% things up---Barack Obama
-----------------------------------------------------------
Keep running between the raindrops.
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 26616
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

Re: Whats the tight oil prospect for Saudi Arabia?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 29 Mar 2016, 13:15:26

Nice try Plant. But some of the greatest source rocks known on the planet are in the US and almost none have any significant oil potential. As I said it takes a lot more the oil in the shale to make a play.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 11397
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: Whats the tight oil prospect for Saudi Arabia?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 29 Mar 2016, 13:27:12

ROCKMAN wrote:Nice try Plant. But some of the greatest source rocks known on the planet are in the US and almost none have any significant oil potential. As I said it takes a lot more the oil in the shale to make a play.


Have you ever heard of the Permian Basin? Its right there in Texas and its the largest oil producing province in the USA.---I'm surprised you don't you know that Pioneer Exploration and other firms are doing a good business drilling and fracking shale and producing oil from the Wolfcamp and Bone Springs Shales and other other associated shales ---i.e. from the source rocks for the Permian Basin oil fields. The name some companies use for their fracking play in the Permain is the Wolfbone, i.e. the WOLFcamp and BONE Springs shales.

Get it now?

Are you sure you're a Texas oil geologist? :lol:

Image
The Wolfcamp Shales and Bone Springs Shales in the Permian Basin of Texas are both source rock for conventional oil reserves and tight oil shale plays known together as the Wolfbone play in the Permian Basin of Texas---the largest oil producing province in the USA.
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 26616
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

Re: Whats the tight oil prospect for Saudi Arabia?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 29 Mar 2016, 13:33:16

ROCKMAN wrote: The vast majority of global shale formations have ZERO oil production potential.

Rock, do you have a credible citation or two for this? I'm not getting (obvious) hits for it with the simple searches I tried.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 10142
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 21:26:42
Location: Central KY

Re: Whats the tight oil prospect for Saudi Arabia?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 29 Mar 2016, 14:36:14

Here is an article from late last year talking about a potential fracking oil boom in Saudi.

saudi-fracking-boom-could-be-a-tectonic-shift

The article ends by speculating that one reason for the decision by Saudi to pump full out and help cause a global oil glut may be that they are the verge of a huge fracking oil boom that will supplement their conventional oil reserves.

Cheers!

Image
Is a Saudi fracking oil boom coming?
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 26616
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

Re: Whats the tight oil prospect for Saudi Arabia?

Unread postby Synapsid » Tue 29 Mar 2016, 15:21:14

rockdoc, ROCKMAN,

Are there many organic-rich shales as old as early Silurian?

Just curious.
Synapsid
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 780
Joined: Tue 06 Aug 2013, 21:21:50

Re: Whats the tight oil prospect for Saudi Arabia?

Unread postby americandream » Tue 29 Mar 2016, 15:32:51

Plant. Makes sense. So kill the fracking competition in the US and keep the US hooked on the Saudi teat as the new more costlier sources are slid into? Fcuk. I wouldn't put it past them. Gearing up for the Haj business on the one hand, exporting their version of Islam worldwide under the pretext of terrorism, ramping up their lobbyists (even as they rally the establishment hacks behind them) and of course, destroying all competition even as they rally their hacks to push their geo-political view in a Kufar world punch drunk from hack duplicity. Sounds damned plausible. A lot of this should be sounding alarm bells.
americandream
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 8650
Joined: Mon 18 Oct 2004, 03:00:00

Re: Whats the tight oil prospect for Saudi Arabia?

Unread postby Synapsid » Tue 29 Mar 2016, 15:44:34

Correction to my post just above:

I promptly recalled the thick black shales in the Taconics, in New York and adjacent New England; Ordovician, I believe. There are lots more, too.

Brain on idle, fingers moving. (sigh)
Synapsid
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 780
Joined: Tue 06 Aug 2013, 21:21:50

Re: Whats the tight oil prospect for Saudi Arabia?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 29 Mar 2016, 16:14:19

@syn: I don't know which shales in New York you are referring to, and the state of New York has banned fracking anyway, so you are going to see zero activity and zero interest in any of the shales there.

Meanwhile, the Marcellus and Utica Shales are producing lots of NG in Pennsylvania just next door.

@AD

Yes….its an interesting theory that Saudi is willing to create an oil glut now because they've already figured out they've got huge amounts of shale oil they can turn to as their conventional oil gets used up.
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 26616
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

Re: Whats the tight oil prospect for Saudi Arabia?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 29 Mar 2016, 16:25:31

But But But!! Don't he Saudi's have eighty years left of conventional oil proven reserves? Why would they need to frack anything before 2100? :badgrin:
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 14897
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 03:00:00

Re: Whats the tight oil prospect for Saudi Arabia?

Unread postby Synapsid » Tue 29 Mar 2016, 16:48:06

Plantagenet,

I wasn't asking about fracking, just about organic-rich shales as old as early in the Silurian. It was a lazy question, as I'm perfectly familiar with such shales of Ordovician age (as in the Taconic Mountains) and of Cambrian age--the famous Burgess shale of southern British Columbia as an example. I expect there are older ones too.

I just typed before using my head, something I usually try to avoid doing.
Synapsid
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 780
Joined: Tue 06 Aug 2013, 21:21:50

Re: Whats the tight oil prospect for Saudi Arabia?

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 29 Mar 2016, 17:22:47

Are there many organic-rich shales as old as early Silurian?


North Africa has some pretty famous Silurian source rocks. The majority of the onshore fields in Algeria and Libya were sourced from the Silurian so-called "hot shales" which are very rich. Silurian source is also responsible for a lot of the Nubia sandstone oil and gas in Egypt.

The issue isn't so much how good the source rock is but what it has been exposed to in terms of time/temperature history. In Algeria as an example outside of the central Berkine basin the Silurian shales are in direct sub-crop relationship with Triassic and Devonian sandstone reservoirs and are variably in the oil or gas generation window.

The Silurian shales in Saudi Arabia as I remember are far too deep to have much other than dry gas and likely are pretty deep to make fracking attractive (cost wise). The Silurian shales are not the source for Saudi Arabia's large oil fields. The oils have been typed to a very rich shale of lower Jurassic age that sits just below the Hanifa formation. Whereas the Jurassic source rocks in SA have been quite lucrative (the right combination of heat and time) there are much richer Jurassic source rocks that have never produced a drop (example the Jurassic Urandip? FM in East Africa) having never been buried deep enough under a high enough geothermal gradient.
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7685
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Whats the tight oil prospect for Saudi Arabia?

Unread postby americandream » Tue 29 Mar 2016, 17:30:31

Well, we can sit here and pontificate but I prefer to watch the shillingies as we say in this game. There is a reason why the Saudis are targetting US shale and why they are ramping up their Haj business just as the world stands at a crossroads between one set of social relations and another (and why the Russians for example are being targeted as they are as an example) and I prefer to trust my senses which smell a big rat. A years good US oil inventories should see my mind more or less settled.
americandream
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 8650
Joined: Mon 18 Oct 2004, 03:00:00

Re: Whats the tight oil prospect for Saudi Arabia?

Unread postby C8 » Tue 29 Mar 2016, 18:37:29

Maybe Saudi Arabia has no choice but to pump as they would just lose market share and prices may crash anyway.

I am not sure they even know entirely what is geologically possible on their land. I haven't heard of exploratory fracking attempts. In the end, after all the models have been run, the only truth is to try.
User avatar
C8
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1074
Joined: Sun 14 Apr 2013, 09:02:48

Re: Whats the tight oil prospect for Saudi Arabia?

Unread postby peripato » Tue 29 Mar 2016, 18:54:02

Plantagenet wrote:Here is an article from late last year talking about a potential fracking oil boom in Saudi.

saudi-fracking-boom-could-be-a-tectonic-shift

The article ends by speculating that one reason for the decision by Saudi to pump full out and help cause a global oil glut may be that they are the verge of a huge fracking oil boom that will supplement their conventional oil reserves.

Cheers!

Image
Is a Saudi fracking oil boom coming?

Even if this is credible, the Saudis would still need to see very high oil prices again for a prolonged period of time to make the investment worthwhile. Meanwhile, we all know what prolonged high oil prices do to the world economy.

Image
"Don’t panic, Wall St. is safe!"
User avatar
peripato
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1335
Joined: Tue 03 May 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Reality

Re: Whats the tight oil prospect for Saudi Arabia?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 29 Mar 2016, 19:08:10

C8 wrote:Maybe Saudi Arabia has no choice but to pump as they would just lose market share and prices may crash anyway.

I am not sure they even know entirely what is geologically possible on their land. I haven't heard of exploratory fracking attempts. In the end, after all the models have been run, the only truth is to try.

I read what I considered a real good book on the shale fracking revolution (which I need to get around to reviewing at some point -- maybe when my taxes are done.

It's called "The Domino Effect", by a guy (Russell Braziel) with 40 years in the business, with lots of real world experience in natural gas, NGL's, and oil production.

I'll summarize some key points here, as they're germane to your post.

He says the US has at least a ten year head start on the rest of the world in Shale fracking. He says between some countries banning shale fracking, the big economic downturn in 2008 delaying some projects for a long time are two minor reasons. He gives the major reason as that each major shale formation is different. It takes a long lead time to explore, experiment, and find the "keys" to most productively drill each formation. In an entrepreneurial country like the US, some businesses will take such risks (and hope for the big payoff). Not so in the vast majority of big state-owned oil behemoths, he claims. (This is one of the reasons they tend to be inefficient).

So if this is correct, the KSA well might not know what is possible on their oil lands via fracking.

To me, if they see the writing on the wall and fear longer term high production and low oil prices due to US shale fracking for oil (and eventually global fracking), like you say, they may feel they have no choice.

I don't know what will happen, but Braziel points out that US shale fracking is responsible for the long term abundance and price crash in natural gas. He says now that's been hitting crude oil and NGL's. And he thinks there's lots more to come. He does NOT give specific forecasts, forecast specific product prices (or crude prices), but instead shows a general picture about how over time, abundance tends to push the whole complex down, especially since many wells produce all three drill bit hydrobarbons.

This, for example, is why dry NG prices continued to be pummelled, even as frackers were targeting wet gas when oil was still expensive. Well, wet gas wells produce lots of dry gas too, so the volumes increased, even though the dry gas wasn't the primary target.

He claims a lot is known in the US about shale formations, which is why he's confident shale oil plays will tend to be lucrative. Drillers can be confident a given formation will produce when fracked once it is intensively studied. They won't know HOW lucrative until they've done early drilling/experimenting on the formation for months to years though.

There are a LOT of shale formations around the world. He is confident that there will be a lot of oil produced from such shales -- but it may be decades before we see it, especially if US fracking keeps prices averaging well below $100 for quite a while.

He could be wrong of course, but his analysis of the history of the drill bit hydrocarbons uses data, logic, dates, economics, and plenty of analysis, along with historical pricing events and trends to build a case that demonstrates (to me) that the man knows what he's talking about.

So you're clearly right -- the only truth is to try. However, statistically, apparently overall there is a lot of oil in the globe's shale, and a meaningful amount of that will be profitably recoverable -- when the oil price is right.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 10142
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 21:26:42
Location: Central KY

Re: Whats the tight oil prospect for Saudi Arabia?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 29 Mar 2016, 19:41:08

rockdoc123 wrote:The Silurian shales in Saudi Arabia as I remember are far too deep to have much other than dry gas and likely are pretty deep to make fracking attractive (cost wise). The Silurian shales are not the source for Saudi Arabia's large oil fields. The oils have been typed to a very rich shale of lower Jurassic age that sits just below the Hanifa formation.


The Jurassic section occurs much higher in the section and becomes shallower and shallower until it is exposed at the surface to the west of Ghawar. Perhaps these shales might produce oil if fracked. :)
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 26616
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

Next

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 53 guests