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What kind of economy will emerge in a post oil world?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

What kind of economy will emerge in a post oil world?

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Sat 01 Nov 2014, 17:59:16

I believe a bartering of good society will result in a post oil world. Capitalism depends on infinite growth, which is impossible on a finite planet. Capitalism is impossible in a post oil world because there will be no more growth in a post oil world. So I believe a primitive bartering economy will arise after capitalism.

People will just trade goods based off their inheritant value. I give you 10 ducks for 1 pig for example. Or I give you my daughter for two cows. People will trade goods with each other without the use of money. I believe a moneyless economy is the best type of economy.

If bartering doesn't work, I believe we will have to resort to feudalism again, which is no good. Feudalism is the same thing as capitalism except the bourgeois are now feudal lords. Feudalism will result in massive wealth inequalities again, just like capitalism.

So what will a post oil economy be like? Bartering, feudalism or socialism/communism. The closest thing to communism would be a barter-based economy because there will be the least amount of wealth inequality in such a society.
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Re: What kind of economy will emerge in a post oil world?

Unread postby Shaved Monkey » Sat 01 Nov 2014, 18:40:59

The major changes will be in the oil dependant first world countries and the imported food dependant countries regardless of their status.
Its just the transition that will send some people, corporations and governments broke.
Spices can still be delivered by camel train and pizza by bike.

Have a look at a BBC doco welcome to Lagos (theres lots of it on youtube)
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Re: What kind of economy will emerge in a post oil world?

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sat 01 Nov 2014, 18:45:34

DesuMaiden wrote:I believe a bartering of good society will result in a post oil world. Capitalism depends on infinite growth, which is impossible on a finite planet. Capitalism is impossible in a post oil world because there will be no more growth in a post oil world. So I believe a primitive bartering economy will arise after capitalism.

People will just trade goods based off their inheritant value. I give you 10 ducks for 1 pig for example. Or I give you my daughter for two cows. People will trade goods with each other without the use of money. I believe a moneyless economy is the best type of economy.

If bartering doesn't work, I believe we will have to resort to feudalism again, which is no good. Feudalism is the same thing as capitalism except the bourgeois are now feudal lords. Feudalism will result in massive wealth inequalities again, just like capitalism.

So what will a post oil economy be like? Bartering, feudalism or socialism/communism. The closest thing to communism would be a barter-based economy because there will be the least amount of wealth inequality in such a society.


We already have neo-feudalism, only the wealthy can afford a private army, like Blackwater.
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Re: What kind of economy will emerge in a post oil world?

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Sat 01 Nov 2014, 18:46:49

Subjectivist wrote:
DesuMaiden wrote:I believe a bartering of good society will result in a post oil world. Capitalism depends on infinite growth, which is impossible on a finite planet. Capitalism is impossible in a post oil world because there will be no more growth in a post oil world. So I believe a primitive bartering economy will arise after capitalism.

People will just trade goods based off their inheritant value. I give you 10 ducks for 1 pig for example. Or I give you my daughter for two cows. People will trade goods with each other without the use of money. I believe a moneyless economy is the best type of economy.

If bartering doesn't work, I believe we will have to resort to feudalism again, which is no good. Feudalism is the same thing as capitalism except the bourgeois are now feudal lords. Feudalism will result in massive wealth inequalities again, just like capitalism.

So what will a post oil economy be like? Bartering, feudalism or socialism/communism. The closest thing to communism would be a barter-based economy because there will be the least amount of wealth inequality in such a society.


We already have neo-feudalism, only the wealthy can afford a private army, like Blackwater.

lol so true.
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Re: What kind of economy will emerge in a post oil world?

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sat 01 Nov 2014, 18:49:57

Well first of all, oil will be around for a very long time to come (well beyond my lifetime and most likely yours as well), it will just become a specialized transportation fuel used in essential services where alternatives are not up to the job. For all other uses, where viable alternatives like gas are available they'll be used or we'll have to do without.

The real issues with the economy in the future are the same as today, mechanisation and globalization have severely hampered the ideal status of full employment where everyone can earn a living without suffering dire poverty. This was one of the things that plentiful energy was supposed to give us. Instead business leaders just saw it as a way of improving their profit margins by shifting employment to cheaper and cheaper areas.

Ultimately, this has led us to the current situation where we now have deflationary pressures driving down wages in many parts of the world or at best halting wage increases in most other places.

At some point in the not too distant future, the financial sector will simply implode due to it being far too big to shrinking economy, a repeat of 2008 but bigger!
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Re: What kind of economy will emerge in a post oil world?

Unread postby inglorious » Sat 01 Nov 2014, 20:39:22

I think currencies will still be used as they're just more efficient. Perhaps you don't want to trade 10 ducks for a pig, you want a cow but the man with the cow doesn't want ducks. Currencies have been about for thousands of years, they're not dependent on a capitalist society.

Also, don't expect a collapse to in any way reduce inequality. Humans will still be humans after all. Not a happy thing to be saying I know but you may as well be a realist.
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Re: What kind of economy will emerge in a post oil world?

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Sat 01 Nov 2014, 21:15:47

inglorious wrote:I think currencies will still be used as they're just more efficient. Perhaps you don't want to trade 10 ducks for a pig, you want a cow but the man with the cow doesn't want ducks. Currencies have been about for thousands of years, they're not dependent on a capitalist society.

Also, don't expect a collapse to in any way reduce inequality. Humans will still be humans after all. Not a happy thing to be saying I know but you may as well be a realist.

So we will probably go back to a feudalistic mode of production, eh? :-D :-D :) :)
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Re: What kind of economy will emerge in a post oil world?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 01 Nov 2014, 21:57:37

Inglorious has it right. Currency will remain due to it's utility. And Capitalism will also survive as it can adapt to what ever growth expectations are realistic. After all a seed planted will still grow and steel welded into a machine will still be more valuable then the raw steel plates. In an oil deprived future the competition will be to do more with less energy inputs which is just a notch up from where we are now. If thems the rules and the winners get rich (or are better off then the rest) then I'm all in.
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Re: What kind of economy will emerge in a post oil world?

Unread postby Pops » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 06:44:45

DesuMaiden wrote:I believe a bartering of good society will result in a post oil world. Capitalism depends on infinite growth, which is impossible on a finite planet.

First off, "bartering" is merely a manner of trade, not a type of economy. As said above, currency won't disappear, it's been around for eons and serves a useful purpose.

Capitalism does not depend on growth, merely private ownership:
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/capitalism
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/capitalism
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/capitalism.asp
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.p ... Capitalism

Only if you believe private ownership will disappear can you expect capitalism to disappear.

The whole bumper sticker bit about infinite growth is just another meaningless platitude to avoid actually thinking about the wold logically. Toss it out and go watch the game. Growth is a result of capitalism, not a requirement. Take your capital, build a factory, hire a worker (or robot) and make something. The difference between cost and sell price is profit - hopefully. Growth comes from the efficiency inherent in trying to cut costs and make the profit and the competition between producers to gain market. The capitalist must squeeze a little extra out of the worker and the worker must give a little more than he would if he were working on his on dime because he is supporting himself as well as the owner.

The point of capitalism is not growth but profit, growth may be an offshoot but is not a requirement - and not on everyone needs to be profiting either, creative destruction being a central tenet. Obviously no or negative growth doesn't equal the end of capitalism or it would have long since went kaput.

Since much of the modern, especially the rich world economy is based on waste enabled by cheap energy, if/when cheap energy leaves us there will be a very long period of deflation as the fat (then meat) is wrung out. But again, since capitalism is not defined by growth but by profit from private property and private labor, it will survive as long as the legal framework allows. There is profit to be made in any situation; even the worst disaster and humans will not become 100% self-sufficient next Tuesday, so opportunities will abound.
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Re: What kind of economy will emerge in a post oil world?

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 06:55:14

True, capitalism isn't dependent on growth, but the financial system is!
It absolutely requires growth and inflation to allow it to take a share of the profits without looking like an outright thief.
The banking sector is now shrinking though, http://www.bbc.com/news/business-29798532 is the latest in a long line of cutbacks. I was reading somewhere that the financial sector was only about 5% of the economy in the 1920s but was over 20% in the 1990s so there's scope for further cuts there.
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Re: What kind of economy will emerge in a post oil world?

Unread postby Ibon » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 07:45:30

Pops wrote:
DesuMaiden wrote:
Since much of the modern, especially the rich world economy is based on waste enabled by cheap energy, if/when cheap energy leaves us there will be a very long period of deflation as the fat (then meat) is wrung out. But again, since capitalism is not defined by growth but by profit from private property and private labor, it will survive as long as the legal framework allows. There is profit to be made in any situation; even the worst disaster and humans will not become 100% self-sufficient next Tuesday, so opportunities will abound.


I read your post Pops and saw that Dolanbaker followed with a post that was exactly the same as what I was thinking. It is the financial sector that will be most affected by a strong curtailing of growth. I am by no means an economist but what are the ramifications? What comes off the top of my head this morning:

The issuing of credit and start up capital will be a lot more difficult.
The ownership of stocks, hedge funds, all sorts of financial instruments that have made some people fabulously wealthy will no longer be attractive.
Wealth might move back into owning tangible things like farm land, properties, factories, etc instead of these financial instruments
Less disparity of wealth or more disparity with the falling off of the financial sector?
As growth flattens what changes will we see in cultural values?
The recessions and corrections coming up will see an enormous amount of fictitious wealth evaporate

What other consequences happen when the financial sector is thus weakened?
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Re: What kind of economy will emerge in a post oil world?

Unread postby Ibon » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 07:54:59

dolanbaker wrote: I was reading somewhere that the financial sector was only about 5% of the economy in the 1920s but was over 20% in the 1990s so there's scope for further cuts there.


One thing is the percentage of the economy represented by the financial sector. What about the percentage of assets of say the richest 20% of the population. What percentage is in stocks, hedge funds, financial instruments vs. say property or something tangible.

Is it not a valid conclusion that as growth slows wealth will move more and more away from stock ownership and put more into tangible assets like property, farm land, factories, etc.
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Re: What kind of economy will emerge in a post oil world?

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 08:13:33

Ibon wrote:Is it not a valid conclusion that as growth slows wealth will move more and more away from stock ownership and put more into tangible assets like property, farm land, factories, etc.

Yes, it think that it is. In the early 19th century, it was not unusual for a member of the landed gentry to look out his (elevated) bedroom window and see his wealth as he owns all the land in view.

If property prices around the world continue to rise (relatively speaking) out of reach of the average employee & family, we're already long past the point where a single income could finance that house purchase. More and more property will be owned by fewer and fewer wealthy landlords.
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Re: What kind of economy will emerge in a post oil world?

Unread postby Pops » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 08:53:12

I didn't say nothing would change, merely that capitalism is a system of private property.

Finance isn't capitalism, aside from the gambling portion it's just renting money, many times it is renting money that is privately owned, previously acquired and rent seeking. We are more and more moving to a rentier economy. Don't think of that as owning apartments, think of it as owning the past: patents, intellectual property, royalties, land, water, copyrights - previous work made permanent. Anything of value, previously acquired and nominally perpetual.

Over the past 50 years the capitalists have switched from facilitating workers to make a profit, to acquiring property of various sorts returning to the previous state, they are becoming rentiers. The workers meanwhile have transformed from yeomen (freeholders) back into renters - serfs by any other name.

Obviously frothy wealth will disappear if the energy slaves that do most of the work to support the economy disappear. All the money loaned into existence will get paid off or more likely defaulted. That is deflation, fewer dollars, worth more, harder to come by.

But along the line some of the dollars will be funneled to the rentiers. It isn't some Bilderberg conspiracy, just good business. We're already way past the 80/20 rule; the top one percent now own half of everything, the bottom half own 1%.

Don't expect "The End of Capitalism" to change that in your favor.


Says me, :)
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Re: What kind of economy will emerge in a post oil world?

Unread postby inglorious » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 09:06:08

Growth is currently a crucial element of our economic system, I agree that it doesn't have to be but the system would be very distinct to what we have today.

I'm trying to wrap my head around how a zero/low-growth economy would play out but it's early and my brain isn't firing this morning. What happens to debt - new rather than old? What happens to job creation? What happens to the big investments required for technological innovation? Investors in silicon valley risk money on failed start-ups as they know they can win big on others - does a low growth economy impact this?

I'm not saying it doesn't work, I'm actually trying to ask those questions through a sleep deprived fog.
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Re: What kind of economy will emerge in a post oil world?

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 09:29:52

The unsustainable debt can simply be repackaged and relent at a zero interest rate indefinitely, while the financiers continue to reap the interest from the billions of smaller loans. In a deflationary scenario, these loans unless repaid quickly will become ever more of a burden into the future.
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Re: What kind of economy will emerge in a post oil world?

Unread postby Pops » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 11:40:18

If a debt cannot be repaid in full, it is paid in part and if not in part, it just goes away. Lots of ramifications but no mystery there, it is the reason for interest, the cost of risk. The next loan gets made the same way as the previous, if the loaner thinks it can be repaid then it gets made, if there is doubt then it doesn't or the interest rises.

But you're right, in deflation currency becomes scarce and more valuable so the later payments are made with harder to get dollars - that is one the cause of the deflationary spiral.
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Re: What kind of economy will emerge in a post oil world?

Unread postby AgentR11 » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 12:29:52

I think yall can forget the deflation thing. The Fed's already shown their hand on that one. If they have to hand deliver free cash to every American that can walk to prevent deflation, they will, and will do it without hesitation. For those betting on deflation, the scary thing is that with almost everyone being tied into the electronic banking system either by regular accounts or EBT accounts, the Fed can not only do it, but do it with just a few taps on a keyboard, nearly instantly.

Deflation is history as an issue.

The question really is how close to stable can the Fed manage to keep the currency while insuring some modest degree of inflation? I'm an optimist on this one, in that I believe our trading systems have reach the point that they are faster than human panic reactions; able to buy or sell currency or assets to stabilize the value of the dollar relative to US produced goods and real assets.

Thus, we get an economy that reports "growth" while just about everyone is feeling some kind of squeeze with regard to what they can do or consume.

In benevolent parlance, this is called, "Power Down". I call it the creation of an American feudal regime, as the top 20% experiences modest gains in comfort and power; the top 1% substantial gains, and the top 0.001% experience gains in power never before experienced by humans. A feudal regime in command of a military and industrial economy on the scale of the US should give *everyone* a moment of pause.

This form of Power Down is actually compatible with the economic structures we have now, with some concerns you might not have considered. Everyone thinks its the just-in-time system, or the trucking goods across 3000 miles system that will fail. In reality, those systems are so efficient that they work regardless of any rational price point on fuel. What doesn't work? You driving to the store to buy a few days of groceries or a case of beer. If Walmart is 6 miles away, it currently costs you about $7 to go there and back; which is OK for $100 in groceries, and annoying but tolerable for $20 of beer. Post oil'ish, if that transportation costs you $30 for that same $20 in beer; that's pretty harsh, and even for the $100 in groceries it kinda sucks. OK, I'm a cyclist, I can do it for the cost of 150g of white flour and/or sugar, or 100g cookies; and I can transport about 18kg/20k cm3 of groceries that way. Can Walmart survive if their customers are only buying 18kg of groceries per trip through the checkout line? That's the real problem. Smaller stores provide the correct consumer flow, but smaller stores fail on managing distribution costs.

If the change happens slow enough, the big box guys will have enough pricing power to pay for the required staffing changes, but increased prices on goods purchased (not exclusively) by the lower half of the population, further enhances the creation of a bound peasantry, bound by debt, as opposed to tied to land, but same deal really. Can't feed yourself outside the system, can't rise in the system, assigned an ill maintained box to shelter in, and told to show up at a meaningless exercise often enough that you don't have time to cause trouble.

So, what kind of economy will emerge (is emerging)?. Feudal system defined by debt and investment; a peasantry safely hobbled, a professional 20% operator class absolutely terrified of losing their grasp on the coat tails of their liege, and 1%/0.001% managerial and ruling classes that are empowered and protected on a scale never achieved before in the history of humanity.
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Re: What kind of economy will emerge in a post oil world?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 13:19:48

vtsnowedin wrote:Currency will remain due to it's utility.


But what will it be based upon? Currently, it is debt-based and loaned into existence. And without growth in GDP, there is no debt-based currency possible.

Without debt-based fiat currencies, there won't be the capital for investment and expansion. You'll have to save your money to buy or invest.

There Isn't enough gold or silver In the world to serve as money and it was cumbersome to carry around large amounts, so fiat money was created to allow for expansion of the money supply. In effect; IOU's; a promise to pay, not backed by anything.

But in a world where a promise of growth is not possible, credit will not be available on any scale we are accustomed to.
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Re: What kind of economy will emerge in a post oil world?

Unread postby ralfy » Sun 02 Nov 2014, 22:49:43

Pops wrote:
DesuMaiden wrote:I believe a bartering of good society will result in a post oil world. Capitalism depends on infinite growth, which is impossible on a finite planet.

First off, "bartering" is merely a manner of trade, not a type of economy. As said above, currency won't disappear, it's been around for eons and serves a useful purpose.

Capitalism does not depend on growth, merely private ownership:
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/capitalism
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/capitalism
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/capitalism.asp
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.p ... Capitalism

Only if you believe private ownership will disappear can you expect capitalism to disappear.

The whole bumper sticker bit about infinite growth is just another meaningless platitude to avoid actually thinking about the wold logically. Toss it out and go watch the game. Growth is a result of capitalism, not a requirement. Take your capital, build a factory, hire a worker (or robot) and make something. The difference between cost and sell price is profit - hopefully. Growth comes from the efficiency inherent in trying to cut costs and make the profit and the competition between producers to gain market. The capitalist must squeeze a little extra out of the worker and the worker must give a little more than he would if he were working on his on dime because he is supporting himself as well as the owner.

The point of capitalism is not growth but profit, growth may be an offshoot but is not a requirement - and not on everyone needs to be profiting either, creative destruction being a central tenet. Obviously no or negative growth doesn't equal the end of capitalism or it would have long since went kaput.

Since much of the modern, especially the rich world economy is based on waste enabled by cheap energy, if/when cheap energy leaves us there will be a very long period of deflation as the fat (then meat) is wrung out. But again, since capitalism is not defined by growth but by profit from private property and private labor, it will survive as long as the legal framework allows. There is profit to be made in any situation; even the worst disaster and humans will not become 100% self-sufficient next Tuesday, so opportunities will abound.


The source of growth is profit. The same profit involves money, which is re-invested in the same or in other businesses. There's your capital. That's why not only is financing part of capitalism but capitalism also requires growth.
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