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What kind of economy will emerge in a post oil world?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: What kind of economy will emerge in a post oil world?

Unread postby radon1 » Mon 10 Nov 2014, 03:02:23

careinke wrote:
I'm not sure if Ponzi was the word you meant to use.

Wiki:


"Money pyramid", do not know a better term than ponzi for this. Obviously, it does not have to be fraudulent or ill-intended, it may be built in good faith and with good intentions. Does not change the substance though. Similar stories have happened in the past, eg. John Law's one back in the 18th century. The man had all the good intentions and burnt all his own money in the enterprise.
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Re: What kind of economy will emerge in a post oil world?

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 07 Mar 2021, 12:27:29

A pandemic reset of world economy.

Milton Friedman's 1980s economic dictum that profit is the purest motive is about to meet its strongest challenge ever -- stakeholder capitalism, represented by corporate and financial institutions' adoption of annual ESG audits, to measure and report how much risk a commercial entity faces on three fronts: environmental, social, and governance.
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Re: What kind of economy will emerge in a post oil world?

Unread postby Pops » Sun 07 Mar 2021, 17:18:56

Nice bump.

In related news (not really news but...)
Time wrote:The Top 1% of Americans Have Taken $50 Trillion From the Bottom 90%—And That's Made the U.S. Less Secure
How big is this elephant? A staggering $50 trillion. That is how much the upward redistribution of income has cost American workers over the past several decades.

This is not some back-of-the-napkin approximation. According to a groundbreaking new working paper by Carter C. Price and Kathryn Edwards of the RAND Corporation, had the more equitable income distributions of the three decades following World War II (1945 through 1974) merely held steady, the aggregate annual income of Americans earning below the 90th percentile would have been $2.5 trillion higher in the year 2018 alone. That is an amount equal to nearly 12 percent of GDP—enough to more than double median income—enough to pay every single working American in the bottom nine deciles an additional $1,144 a month. Every month. Every single year.


This could go in just about any thread, any of the political threads fer sure, but this is as good as any.
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Re: What kind of economy will emerge in a post oil world?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 07 Mar 2021, 18:17:20

Ah but they did not take anything from you. You went to their stores or shopped on line and willingly paid for the products they offered and liked it so much you did it again and again and taught your children to do it as well.
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Re: What kind of economy will emerge in a post oil world?

Unread postby Pops » Sun 07 Mar 2021, 18:45:41

There is an entire political party whose motto is "... again"
What era are they thinking of when they say make it great again?
I'm betting it is the post war period pointed to in the article when America had a strong middle class, before "trickle-up" charade.

Uneducated white men are the people suffering, killing themselves, voting for authoritarians and con men and ranting at all the unfairness.

And still defending the status quo, go figure.
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Re: What kind of economy will emerge in a post oil world?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 07 Mar 2021, 19:50:52

Pops wrote:Uneducated white men are the people ....ranting at all the unfairness.


Thats not really fair.

There are a lot of uneducated black people ranting at all the unfairness as well.

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Re: What kind of economy will emerge in a post oil world?

Unread postby Ibon » Sun 07 Mar 2021, 20:09:19

Pops wrote:Nice bump.

In related news (not really news but...)
Time wrote:The Top 1% of Americans Have Taken $50 Trillion From the Bottom 90%—And That's Made the U.S. Less Secure
How big is this elephant? A staggering $50 trillion. That is how much the upward redistribution of income has cost American workers over the past several decades.

This is not some back-of-the-napkin approximation. According to a groundbreaking new working paper by Carter C. Price and Kathryn Edwards of the RAND Corporation, had the more equitable income distributions of the three decades following World War II (1945 through 1974) merely held steady, the aggregate annual income of Americans earning below the 90th percentile would have been $2.5 trillion higher in the year 2018 alone. That is an amount equal to nearly 12 percent of GDP—enough to more than double median income—enough to pay every single working American in the bottom nine deciles an additional $1,144 a month. Every month. Every single year.


This could go in just about any thread, any of the political threads fer sure, but this is as good as any.


The top 1% taking in $ 50 trillion from the bottom 90% and they can't even throw a meatless bone of $ 15 an hour minimum wage to keep the bottom of the 90% subdued?

Asking for trouble big time.
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Re: What kind of economy will emerge in a post oil world?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 07 Mar 2021, 20:25:09

Ibon wrote:.... they can't even throw a meatless bone of $ 15 an hour minimum wage to keep the bottom of the 90% subdued?

Asking for trouble big time.


The CBO determined that instituting a $15 minimum wage across the country would result in over a million people losing their jobs.

Thank goodness Senator Joe Manchin D-WV had enough common sense to say no to his fellow Ds, thereby saving over a million US jobs and dodging some trouble big time.

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Re: What kind of economy will emerge in a post oil world?

Unread postby yellowcanoe » Sun 07 Mar 2021, 20:39:34

Plantagenet wrote:
Ibon wrote:.... they can't even throw a meatless bone of $ 15 an hour minimum wage to keep the bottom of the 90% subdued?

Asking for trouble big time.


The CBO determined that instituting a $15 minimum wage across the country would result in over a million people losing their jobs.

Thank goodness Senator Joe Manchin D-WV had enough common sense to say no to his fellow Ds, thereby saving over a million US jobs and dodging some trouble big time.

Cheers!


They should actually be lowering the minimum wage to ensure there are enough jobs for all the illegals, uh, sorry I meant to say undocumented workers the Democrats would like to have enter the country. Low wages for jobs that don't require a lot of education and experience are a reflection of a surplus of labour to do those jobs.
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Re: What kind of economy will emerge in a post oil world?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 07 Mar 2021, 21:29:00

Every state is capable of setting their own minimum wage based on their own economic conditions. This is where it should lie as one sized fits all would be a disaster as what will work in New York would be a disaster in say Mississippi.
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Re: What kind of economy will emerge in a post oil world?

Unread postby Pops » Mon 08 Mar 2021, 08:23:47

44% of Mississippi's state budget comes from the federal government.
At the same time, income inequality there is the worst in the country.
taxpayers are justified in demanding employers start paying their share.
The bait and switch (look! Illegals!) has made fools of the very victims of trickle-up, uneducated white men.
They have Stockholm Syndrome, they worship their oppressors.

... income inequality between the top 1/5th of Mississippi households and the middle 1/5th of Mississippi households increased more than any other state from the late 1990s to mid-2000.
The same is true for income inequity between the top 1/5th of Mississippi households and the
lowest 1/5th of Mississippi households. During the same period, the top 20% of households
based on income saw an income rise of 19.1% while the middle 20% saw income fall 5.1%
during the same period and the bottom 20% saw income fall by 17.3%. This translates,
according to the U.S. Census Bureau to the top 1/5th of Mississippi households having an
average annual income of $136,553, while the middle 1/5th of Mississippi households have
an average income of $37,235, and the bottom 1/5th have an average income of $8,044.i

https://sig.msstate.edu/publications/in ... uality.pdf
https://mspolicy.org/mississippi-no-lon ... deral-aid/
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Re: What kind of economy will emerge in a post oil world?

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 08 Mar 2021, 10:02:53

Pops wrote:44% of Mississippi's state budget comes from the federal government.
At the same time, income inequality there is the worst in the country.
taxpayers are justified in demanding employers start paying their share.
The bait and switch (look! Illegals!) has made fools of the very victims of trickle-up, uneducated white men.
They have Stockholm Syndrome, they worship their oppressors.


Well..sure! But they get to have all the Bibles and guns...Guns...GUNS....that they want!
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Re: What kind of economy will emerge in a post oil world?

Unread postby mousepad » Mon 08 Mar 2021, 10:11:02

Pops wrote:The bait and switch (look! Illegals!) has made fools of the very victims of trickle-up, uneducated white men

So you're telling me in a town with 2 landscapers all of a sudden 4 more arrive (illegals), this don't depress wages for landscapers, but it's all the fault of white uneducated men? AOC is proud of you, white-guilt at its best.
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Re: What kind of economy will emerge in a post oil world?

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 08 Mar 2021, 10:19:28

mousepad wrote:
Pops wrote:The bait and switch (look! Illegals!) has made fools of the very victims of trickle-up, uneducated white men

So you're telling me in a town with 2 landscapers all of a sudden 4 more arrive (illegals), this don't depress wages for landscapers, but it's all the fault of white uneducated men? AOC is proud of you, white-guilt at its best.


Maybe its the fault of the uneducated white men police officers, not doing their jobs by checking the papers of this sudden influx of illegals? :wink:
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Re: What kind of economy will emerge in a post oil world?

Unread postby Pops » Mon 08 Mar 2021, 10:38:13

mousepad wrote:
Pops wrote:The bait and switch (look! Illegals!) has made fools of the very victims of trickle-up, uneducated white men

So you're telling me in a town with 2 landscapers all of a sudden 4 more arrive (illegals), this don't depress wages for landscapers, but it's all the fault of white uneducated men? AOC is proud of you, white-guilt at its best.

Perfect example of my point.
Supra-national corporations have busted unions, raided pensions, automated the semi-skilled manufacturing jobs they couldn't offshore and paid republican politicians to lower their taxes and eliminate any responsibility they have to protect the environment and workers.

And all you are concerned about is who mows the neighbor's lawn and some little girl who is tougher and more effective at setting the agenda than you or your representatives—

hint: they don't represent you.
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Re: What kind of economy will emerge in a post oil world?

Unread postby JuanP » Mon 08 Mar 2021, 10:53:26

I think that it is good that this thread got resurrected after 7 years. A number of things have changed in the meantime. My wife and I are much better prepared to live in a post oil economy today than we were 7 years ago. Back then we hadn't even started building our bug out Permaculture micro farm in Uruguay and now it is finished. We had been designing, planning, prepping, acquiring skills and supplies for decades, but now we are as ready as can be for whatever may come.

The world has also changed, with more electric vehicles, cheaper PVs, better battery technologies, more efficient appliances, and a bunch of manual and electric cordless farming tools that didn't even exist back then (just visit the Johnny's Seeds website tools section to check some of them out).

How has your situation changed in the last 7 years regarding preps for a post oil world economy?
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Re: What kind of economy will emerge in a post oil world?

Unread postby Pops » Mon 08 Mar 2021, 11:10:46

JuanP wrote:How has your situation changed in the last 7 years regarding preps for a post oil world economy?

Thanks Juan.
Our homestead had kind of reached a sticking point just about 7 years ago. Even with all my prepper talk I had spent too much time on the farmhouse, and invested too much time into raising dairy calves. The place was really cool, I learned a huge amount and still miss it but it lacked focus, I lacked focus. The Frackin' Gusher gave me a chance to reset.

We've made a whole lot more money than if we'd stayed and will have enough to build a smaller, more efficient place and have a little put back. I'm not sure of the market the next year but right now it is a total seller's game. We'll try to hold on until our 2 years is up but if things start to change we'll dump it pronto and go mobile.
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Re: What kind of economy will emerge in a post oil world?

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 08 Mar 2021, 11:46:51

JuanP wrote:How has your situation changed in the last 7 years regarding preps for a post oil world economy?


A great overall question for those of us who have been around since the last peak oils went bust. The overall answer is for the better, same as you. Went into EVs early, and have benefitted tremendously from that peak oil prep. Got both the kids through college and able to stand on their own two feet in the modern world. Career #3 has turned out to be quite complimentary to Careers #1 and #2, and as expected, peak oil turned out to be just a passing fancy for the uber doomers, and as the world morphs into a peak demand configuration we can all rejoice that the environment will be better for it. Demand for natural gas is still expected to increase for decades, and undoubtedly some warmed over ex-McPeaksters will try and turn that into their Rapture event.

We can all celebrate now that the world is transitioning into a post oil based world, and maybe it'll give the environment a chance in the long run.
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Re: What kind of economy will emerge in a post oil world?

Unread postby Pops » Mon 08 Mar 2021, 17:30:39

Pops wrote:hint: they don't represent you.

Long quote from WaPo opinion guy because it is exactly what I was saying above

The ‘great convergence’ is over
The new analysis — which was shared with this blog and is also co-authored by political scientists Jacob Grumbach and Paul Pierson for a forthcoming book on American political economy — brings deep historical context to this problem.

For decades throughout the 20th century, it notes, the industrial economy — combined with large federal expenditures, particularly in the South — drove a “great economic convergence,” in which poorer states steadily caught up with better-off ones.

But more recently, the development of the knowledge economy, whose benefits are largely concentrated in cosmopolitan hubs, has reversed this trend. Meanwhile, in many red states — mostly in the South — the model of weak unions and low wages, which made them competitive for business inside the national market, is faltering in the face of globalized production.

“Blue America is increasingly buoyed by the knowledge economy,” the analysis concludes, while “red America is struggling to find a viable growth model for the twenty-first century.”

How did this happen? A big part of the problem, the authors argue, is conservative governance.

‘Low road states’
The analysis looks at the political economy of 26 states that voted Republican in presidential elections three times since 2000. Of those, 21 are what the authors call “low road states.”

Mostly Southern, they largely maintain that model centered on weak unions and low wages, and tend to have smaller governments and far fewer urban centers.

Tellingly, the authors find, those states have aggregate wage averages that rank below those in the states that voted blue three times since 2000 (though vast inequalities persist within those blue states). The red states that come closest to blue states (like Texas) have dense urban centers.

Another group — “left behind states” — are the ones in the industrial Midwest. They, too, are struggling in the knowledge economy. But they have legacies of progressive policies strengthening unions and public spending (though GOP lawmakers have recently undermined these).

By contrast, the “low road states” still labor under the legacies of “conservative governance,” which include lower minimum wages, anti-union policies, and underfunded education and infrastructure.

What red states should want
To address resulting regional disparities, the analysis argues, these states should want expanded federal cash transfers and bigger federal spending on health care, social insurance and infrastructure. But that’s not happening:

Instead, red state politicians have increasingly embraced a national agenda that is focused on tax cuts and aggressive deregulation and hostile to federal transfers.
Why? Because GOP policy at the federal and state levels is largely set by “national business groups and organized wealthy backers.” This undercuts “the prospects for robust intergovernmental transfers, both to spur local economic development and to finance the social programs” on which poorer, nonurban voters “increasingly rely.”

Consider the rescue package. It would provide a boost in financial assistance for people who get health insurance through the Affordable Care Act’s exchanges. Those are people who might be struggling to afford health care amid the current economy, many in red states.

Yet Republicans uniformly voted against this, after spending years trying to repeal the ACA with no alternative vision, and even as many red states have still refused to take federal money to expand Medicaid.

Meanwhile, the rescue package’s child allowance is the sort of policy that “conservative populist” Republicans who want to wean the GOP off its addiction to plutocratic policies should support.

Indeed, as Samuel Hammond of the Niskanen Center points out, while Republicans used to pillory child welfare as a problem of the urban underclass, this child allowance would give a big lift to many rural white families. But their GOP representatives have now voted against it.

The ultimate paradox here may be this. As the analysis concludes, GOP political elites are able to continue insulating themselves from accountability for this disconnect, not just “through identity appeals rooted in racial and cultural backlash,” but also because of the bias “of the American electoral system toward nonurban areas.”

“Republicans enjoy a huge advantage because the Senate overweights rural areas and because Democratic voters are packed into urban areas, which is made worse by gerrymandering,” Hacker told me. “The tragic irony is that this huge rural bias also helps Republicans get away with ignoring the economic needs of their own constituents.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... ed-states/
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Re: What kind of economy will emerge in a post oil world?

Unread postby evilgenius » Wed 10 Mar 2021, 06:52:58

Plantagenet wrote:
Ibon wrote:.... they can't even throw a meatless bone of $ 15 an hour minimum wage to keep the bottom of the 90% subdued?

Asking for trouble big time.


The CBO determined that instituting a $15 minimum wage across the country would result in over a million people losing their jobs.

Thank goodness Senator Joe Manchin D-WV had enough common sense to say no to his fellow Ds, thereby saving over a million US jobs and dodging some trouble big time.

Cheers!

You know, I was listening to NPR the other day. They had a person on who was in favor of the minimum wage increase to $15 per hour. They readily admitted the job loss figure you cite above. They also said some stuff about everything else they said would come with that increase.

They said that, overall, it would be worth it. What do you think in light of that? Do you think that could be true? Maybe you can see some benefits, but not enough to outweigh those job loss numbers?

You seem to have prejudged this argument a bit. I believe, actually, that this argument does lie in your philosophical wheelhouse. Worker's rights and wages are important to you, as I understand your philosophy insofar as you have revealed it.

I should think that you consider a leap to $15 to be a leap too far. Is there a figure you think makes more sense? Maybe you think that minimum wage laws are too restrictive of individual endeavor? It could be that your identification with whatever side in this argument falls more on that side? I'm kind of curious. What is your take on this?
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