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Re: Temperature beyond human habitability?

Unread postby jupiters_release » Mon 02 Jan 2017, 23:28:47

sparky wrote:.
Check ...Paleocene Eocene thermal maximum ,
it wasn't a mass die off , life flourished there were crocodiles and turtles at the pole .

a fern called Azolla covered the Arctic ocean in such quantity that when it dead stem sunk
it created eventually all the gas and oil now found in the Polar region
anyone of you has ever wondered where the bio material needed to create oil and gas in Alaska and Siberia came from


Thread is for human habitability less you mean we could have survived during that time period's environment as well?
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Re: Temperature beyond human habitability?

Unread postby jupiters_release » Mon 02 Jan 2017, 23:30:50

vtsnowedin wrote:
jupiters_release wrote:Yes I'm inquiring for people's opinions, didn't mean to infer the 'correct' answer can be known.

But surely you're neither implying humanity anywhere on earth can exist after another 15 deg global increase, right?

Wrong. Fifteen degrees C would not be enough to make Antarctica habitable but there are certainly areas, perhaps the Yukon of Alaska or Greenland or the elevation belt between 7,000 and 10,000 ft. in elevation on several mountain ranges where fifteen plus C would make things a lot nicer then they are today.
The convenient thing about the mountain ranges is that you don't have to accurately pick the future temperature just move up or down slope to where conditions are right this year.


You believe hydrogen sulfide would not be an issue after 15 deg?

Are you thinking more around 60 deg increase for human extinction?
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Re: Temperature beyond human habitability?

Unread postby kiwichick » Tue 03 Jan 2017, 00:47:47

I voted 3 degrees ......because if we get to 3 degrees it is out of our control......methane from arctic continental shelves and permafrost will take us to 6 degrees +
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Re: Temperature beyond human habitability?

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 03 Jan 2017, 02:53:36

I voted 15 because human extinction from climate change is exceedingly unlikely under any circumstances and we know the Earth has two stable states, 10-12 C at the bottom and 22-23 C at the top. In over 500 Million years the Earth has stayed between those two stable states, more frequently at the upper bound but about a quarter of the time at the lower. 15 C additional is nearly impossible because all of the climate feedback mechanisms kick in starting around 20 C that is to say 5 C more than today. The higher it goes from there the more resistance to higher temperatures there is.

People like to ignore the saturation effect, but it is very real and very sound science. There is X amount of solar energy impinging upon the sunlit face of the earth constantly. Greenhouse gasses reflect different portions of that spectrum back towards the surface from layers in the atmosphere. Because of the saturation effect a doubling of any greenhouse gas has an effect, but doubling from 280 to 560 ppmv of CO2 is a non-trivial task, and doubling again to 1200 is an even bigger task, and doubling a third time to 2400 starts putting you at the limits of all fossil fuels accessible in the crust.

The effect of going from 140 to 280 is as great an impact as going from 1200 to 2400, but the quantity of CO2 involved is 140 for the first step and 140+280+560+1200 for the second case. A similar argument is made for EVERY greenhouse gas including Methane. Yes burping out a huge quantity of methane overnight would be bad because the flip over to hothouse would be effectively overnight, but the temperatures would still hit that 23 C global average and stop increasing.

At 23 C world average there might be large swaths in the tropical zone within 25 degrees of the Equator where local heat and humidity are too high for human survival. Of it might be the greatest paradise all those Florida retirees love so much weather wise. One thing is certain however, the biodiversity and abundance of life on this planet was far greater when it was in the Hothouse periods than when it is in the Icehouse periods. I have never feared an empty earth scenario, but the faster the change from ice to hot the harder the transition is. Then again life has managed to muddle through about a dozen flips over the last 500 million years I suspect life will be just fine after the next flip. Whatever humans make it through the bottleneck will have a greener more equitable planet to live on. Their descendants will learn about Humans origins during the Icehouse and be puzzled at how we survived such a harsh environment.
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Re: Temperature beyond human habitability?

Unread postby kiwichick » Tue 03 Jan 2017, 04:31:42

@ t .....love your optimism .....hope you have put in your claim for a block of land in Alaska or northern Canada ...just don't make it too close to the coast because the oceans will probably be toxic .....and of course it will need to be 80- 100 metres above current sea level

and what is going to happen to all the people currently living in tropical and subtropical areas of the planet?.......Are they just going to stay where they are .......and die?
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Re: Temperature beyond human habitability?

Unread postby kiwichick » Tue 03 Jan 2017, 04:43:38

tropical and subtropical areas of the planet are likely to become uninhabitable

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_Degre ... ter_Planet
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Re: Temperature beyond human habitability?

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Tue 03 Jan 2017, 05:32:56

1000 meters altitude - 1000 kilometers latitude. Ibon lives very near the equator at 2700 meters, equivalent cooling to 2700 km movement away from the equator, equivalent to 24 degrees latitude.
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Re: Temperature beyond human habitability?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 03 Jan 2017, 07:22:01

kiwichick wrote:@ t .....love your optimism .....hope you have put in your claim for a block of land in Alaska or northern Canada ...just don't make it too close to the coast because the oceans will probably be toxic .....and of course it will need to be 80- 100 metres above current sea level

and what is going to happen to all the people currently living in tropical and subtropical areas of the planet?.......Are they just going to stay where they are .......and die?

Yes those that choose to move will have to pick there sites carefully and move in early. Having land that is inland at 44 degrees latitude and at 1700 ft. in elevation I think I'll take my chances here. Perhaps I will be able to grow grapes or even pineapples.
Sadly about six billion people are going to die and it won't make much difference whether they stay put or migrate and die along the road or fighting over a good spot. But that will leave a billion or so survivors and that is a long way from extinction.
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Re: Temperature beyond human habitability?

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 03 Jan 2017, 07:34:55

It is difficult to ascertain the probability of extinction give our enormous numbers and yet the extreme severity of the degraded condition of the planet humans will attempt to survive on. So nothing in our history even remotely compares to these unique set of circumstances. I think both optimists and pessimists can list at least several factors that support their outlook. I think it is looking quite probable that a large die off of humans will occur though
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Re: Temperature beyond human habitability?

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 03 Jan 2017, 07:40:29

I voted for 6 not from an abundence of information but at this point it seems right.

6°C will see massive die off and in that process we will not go quietly. We may well have a full on nuclear exchange in the process bringing on an I survivable nuclear winter. Or we may do soething really stupid (proved that capability already) trying to remove CO2.

So it not just the heat, it's the human stupidity.
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Re: Temperature beyond human habitability?

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 03 Jan 2017, 07:48:08

You guys know that doomsday clock. Well if I am not mistaken they cited our combined nuclear arsenal and AGW has the two greatest dangers menacing humankind
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Re: Temperature beyond human habitability?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 03 Jan 2017, 08:09:32

jupiters_release wrote:
You believe hydrogen sulfide would not be an issue after 15 deg?

Are you thinking more around 60 deg increase for human extinction?

First off I don't think we will see an increase of 15C.
Second I think the human population is already in overshoot without any climate change at all and will soon begin correcting itself downward.
This correction will reduce humane emissions of pollutants that are harming the oceans and atmosphere.
The end of the oil age will accelerate this correction and allow the oceans and atmosphere to begin to recover.
But you never know.
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All the casualties in his unit were caused by the "Spanish" flu. :|
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Re: Temperature beyond human habitability?

Unread postby evilgenius » Tue 03 Jan 2017, 12:36:30

We're talking about likely, not certain. I voted for 7 because those temps below that are only about decimating man. 7 doesn't kill man off for certain either, but we aren't talking certainty. I think at 7 we begin not to know if man will survive unless he adapts in some unforeseen way. Even after adapting the number of people remaining would be so small that the likelihood of their survival wouldn't be high. I don't know, man is so resilient. Maybe I should have voted 8.
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Re: Temperature beyond human habitability?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 03 Jan 2017, 12:59:51

evilgenius wrote:We're talking about likely, not certain. I voted for 7 because those temps below that are only about decimating man. 7 doesn't kill man off for certain either, but we aren't talking certainty. I think at 7 we begin not to know if man will survive unless he adapts in some unforeseen way. Even after adapting the number of people remaining would be so small that the likelihood of their survival wouldn't be high. I don't know, man is so resilient. Maybe I should have voted 8.

Imagine square miles of air conditioned poly tunnels with the power supplied by solar panels on and between them and living quarters below ground with crops on the levels above. Food , water ,shelter and temperature controlled conditions. Hard to kill off someone that is the master of his own environment.
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Re: Temperature beyond human habitability?

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 03 Jan 2017, 13:11:34

Everybody I recommend the book by Mark Lynas "6 degrees our future on a hotter planet". It describes degree by degree what we can expect in terms of Earth and how it's biophysical/chemical characteristics would be expected to change. It goes up to 6 degrees at which point according to the author and his research, the conditions would be so harsh that human adaptability would be quite difficult. The author stops short of saying this mentioned increase would inevitably lead to our extinction
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Re: Temperature beyond human habitability?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 03 Jan 2017, 13:20:31

onlooker wrote:Everybody I recommend the book by Mark Lynas "6 degrees our future on a hotter planet". It describes degree by degree what we can expect in terms of Earth and how it's biophysical/chemical characteristics would be expected to change. It goes up to 6 degrees at which point according to the author and his research, the conditions would be so harsh that human adaptability would be quite difficult. The author stops short of saying this mentioned increase would inevitably lead to our extinction

Can you give us the short version? What exactly can't we overcome?
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Re: Temperature beyond human habitability?

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 03 Jan 2017, 13:31:02

Six degrees Celsius of warming may not sound like much -- probably because "temperatures can swing by 6 degrees within an hour if a warm front passes, and it doesn't mean the end of the world," said Mark Lynas, author of a book called "Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet."
But if we raise global average surface temperatures by just 6 degrees above pre-industrial levels, Lynas told me, we'll create "a scenario which is so extreme it's almost unimaginable."

"Most of the planetary surface would be functionally uninhabitable," he said. "Agriculture would cease to exist everywhere, apart for the polar and sub-polar regions, and perhaps the mid-latitudes for extremely heat-tolerant crops. It's difficult to see how crops could be grown elsewhere. There's a certain level above which plants just can't survive.
There's a certain level where humans biologically can't survive outside as well ... The oceans would probably stratify, so the oceans would become oxygen-deficient, which would cause a mass extinction and a die off in the oceans, as well -- which would then release gases and affect land. So it's pretty much equivalent of a meteorite striking the planet, in terms of the overall impacts." The gas mostly Lynas is referring to is Hydrogen Sulfide an extremely poisonous gas. Oh and also this extreme scenario has happened before and caused mass extinction events. The worse being the Great Dying about 250 million years ago.
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Re: Temperature beyond human habitability?

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 03 Jan 2017, 13:32:46

6° itself does not kill us off, the knock on consequences of it do.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_Deg ... t#Contents

Special coverage is given to the positive feedback mechanisms that could dramatically accelerate climate change. The book explains how the release of methane hydrate and the release of methane from melting permafrost could unleash a major extinction event. Carbon cycle feedbacks, the demise of coral, the destruction of the Amazon rainforest, and extreme desertification are also described, with five or six degrees of warming potentially leading to the complete uninhabitability of the tropics and subtropics, as well as extreme water and food shortages, possibly leading to mass migration of billions of people.
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Re: Temperature beyond human habitability?

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 03 Jan 2017, 13:54:06

Here is a fuller explanation.

http://globalwarming.berrens.nl/globalwarming.htm

BETWEEN FIVE AND SIX DEGREES OF WARMING

Although warming on this scale lies within the IPCC’s officially endorsed range of 21st-century possibilities, climate models have little to say about what Lynas, echoing Dante, describes as “the Sixth Circle of Hell”. To see the most recent climatic lookalike, we have to turn the geological clock back between 144m and 65m years, to the Cretaceous, which ended with the extinction of the dinosaurs. There was an even closer fit at the end of the Permian, 251m years ago, when global temperatures rose by – yes – six degrees, and 95% of species were wiped out.

That episode was the worst ever endured by life on Earth, the closest the planet has come to ending up a dead and desolate rock in space.” On land, the only winners were fungi that flourished on dying trees and shrubs. At sea there were only losers. Warm water is a killer. Less oxygen can dissolve, so conditions become stagnant and anoxic. Oxygen-breathing water-dwellers – all the higher forms of life from plankton to sharks – face suffocation. Warm water also expands, and sea levels rose by 20 metres.” The resulting “super-hurricanes” hitting the coasts would have triggered flash floods that no living thing could have survived.

There are aspects of the so-called “end-Permian extinction” that are unlikely to recur – most importantly, the vast volcanic eruption in Siberia that spread magma hundreds of metres thick over an area bigger than western Europe and shot billions of tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere. That is small comfort, however, for beneath the oceans, another monster stirred – the same that would bring a devastating end to the Palaeocene nearly 200m years later, and that still lies in wait today. Methane hydrate.

What happens when warming water releases pent-up gas from the sea bed: First, a small disturbance drives a gas-saturated parcel of water upwards. As it rises, bubbles begin to appear, as dissolved gas fizzles out with reducing pressure – just as a bottle of lemonade overflows if the top is taken off too quickly. These bubbles make the parcel of water still more buoyant, accelerating its rise through the water. As it surges upwards, reaching explosive force, it drags surrounding water up with it. At the surface, water is shot hundreds of metres into the air as the released gas blasts into the atmosphere. Shockwaves propagate outwards in all directions, triggering more eruptions nearby.

The eruption is more than just another positive feedback in the quickening process of global warming. Unlike CO2, methane is flammable. Even in air-methane concentrations as low as 5%, the mixture could ignite from lightning or some other spark and send fireballs tearing across the sky. The effect would be much like that of the fuel-air explosives used by the US and Russian armies – so-called “vacuum bombs” that ignite fuel droplets above a target. According to the CIA, those near the ignition point are obliterated. Those at the fringes are likely to suffer many internal injuries, including burst eardrums, severe concussion, ruptured lungs and internal organs, and possibly blindness.” Such tactical weapons, however, are squibs when set against methane-air clouds from oceanic eruptions. Scientists calculate that they could “destroy terrestrial life almost entirely (251m years ago, only one large land animal, the pig-like lystrosaurus, survived). It has been estimated that a large eruption in future could release energy equivalent to 108 megatonnes of TNT – 100,000 times more than the world’s entire stockpile of nuclear weapons. Not even Lynas, for all his scientific propriety, can avoid the Hollywood ending. “It is not too difficult to imagine the ultimate nightmare, with oceanic methane eruptions near large population centres wiping out billions of people – perhaps in days. Imagine a ‘fuel-air explosive’ fireball racing towards a city – London, say, or Tokyo – the blast wave spreading out from the explosive centre with the speed and force of an atomic bomb. Buildings are flattened, people are incinerated where they stand, or left blind and deaf by the force of the explosion. Mix Hiroshima with post-Katrina New Orleans to get some idea of what such a catastrophe might look like: burnt survivors battling over food, wandering far and wide from empty cities.

Then would come hydrogen sulphide from the stagnant oceans. “It would be a silent killer: imagine the scene at Bhopal following the Union Carbide gas release in 1984, replayed first at coastal settlements, then continental interiors across the world. At the same time, as the ozone layer came under assault, we would feel the sun’s rays burning into our skin, and the first cell mutations would be triggering outbreaks of cancer among anyone who survived. Dante’s hell was a place of judgment, where humanity was for ever punished for its sins. With all the remaining forests burning, and the corpses of people, livestock and wildlife piling up in every continent, the six-degree world would be a harsh penalty indeed for the mundane crime of burning fossil energy.
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Re: Temperature beyond human habitability?

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 03 Jan 2017, 14:04:05

Well, it occurs to me with sufficient preparation and some good luck a small percentage of people can build some fully self sufficient artificial techno enclaves or havens. Perhaps as an example utilizing geothermal power to maintain themselves and their artificial manmade environment
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