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Wanted: Simple Solutions. Please Apply Within.

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Wanted: Simple Solutions. Please Apply Within.

Unread postby MrBill » Tue 10 Jun 2008, 10:33:39

Simple solution number two for the day: here is a hint. pay-off your mortgage by the time you're 65-years old, so you won't run the risk of losing your home when you're 85, and can no longer work! Duh!

McMahon owns a Beverly Hills mansion worth an estimated US$6.25 million. But the 85-year-old broke his neck 18 months ago, and hasn't been able to work as a commercial spokesman since then. It's hard to believe he wouldn't have put away some cash all those years, but reports indicate he's fallen some $644,000 behind in payments on $4.8 million mortgage loans and the bank is ready to foreclose on the property.


source: Ed McMahon May Lose His Home After Falling Behind In Payments
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Re: Wanted: Simple Solutions. Please Apply Within.

Unread postby BigTex » Tue 10 Jun 2008, 17:31:53

MrBill wrote:Simple solution number two for the day: here is a hint. pay-off your mortgage by the time you're 65-years old, so you won't run the risk of losing your home when you're 85, and can no longer work! Duh!

McMahon owns a Beverly Hills mansion worth an estimated US$6.25 million. But the 85-year-old broke his neck 18 months ago, and hasn't been able to work as a commercial spokesman since then. It's hard to believe he wouldn't have put away some cash all those years, but reports indicate he's fallen some $644,000 behind in payments on $4.8 million mortgage loans and the bank is ready to foreclose on the property.


source: Ed McMahon May Lose His Home After Falling Behind In Payments


I've always thought that was one of the simplest retirement programs out there. Just time your mortgage to be paid off at retirement age and that will typically represent 1/4 to 1/3 of your income right there in the form of no house payment.

So simple, yet few do it.
:)
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Re: Wanted: Simple Solutions. Please Apply Within.

Unread postby MrBill » Wed 11 Jun 2008, 02:37:37

It is hard to address the really big, complex problems when collectively we cannot even get the small, simple things right!

That is why I do not believe we as ordinary people can solve the transition to post peak oil resource depletion. That is why I do not believe governments can solve these problems. That is why I believe economics alone can guide the masses and control human behavior. What matters gets measured. What hits you in the pocket book gets noticed. Nothing like a little economic deprivation to focus your attention.

Look at Hillary the tax and spend liberal. $20 million in debt with no way to pay it back. Typical of the Left she wants to believe economics (and campaign finance) do not matter. Spend it even if you do not have it. Well, there are very few legal ways that Obama can transfer campaign donations to her, while he needs that money himself to both fight McCain and rebuild Democratic Party finances. There may be some donors that are willing to help her retire her debt, but then one would have to ask the question, why?

But she is just so typical of the type of attitudes that I read in the Press everyday. One woman from Canada wrote on the CBC yesterday that the 'government' needed to reduce interest rates and lower gasoline prices because she has an ARM, and the government needed to give something back for a change. Huh? Those taxes on retail gasoline go to pay for her (and others like her) precious social welfare. The No Deadbeat Left Behind Program. While the BOC interest policy is not supposed to be an antedote to slow economic growth or to make homes more affordable, but to offset fiscal policy by keeping monetary policy neutral and fight inflation.

It is just typical intellectual laziness and ignorance of physical reality. And if that is your starting point for 80-percent of the population then addressing big, complex problems by relying on the citizens themselves or their elected governments becomes an exercise in hope over experience. Give me the dismal science anyday! ; - ))
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Re: Wanted: Simple Solutions. Please Apply Within.

Unread postby mommy22 » Wed 11 Jun 2008, 12:04:35

I don't know how this would work in the reality of life, but in much of the us, kids have no option to get to school safely besides having a parent drive them or the school bus. Well, I gather the school systems are going to be having a really hard time getting kids back and forth with deisel as it is and will continue to go.
I was so incredibly impressed with the Dutch bicycle paths throughout their country...even people who lived further out can ride their bike safely into town, and safely in town, with the paths specifically for bikes (and accompanying traffic lights!).
If there was a concerted effort to make safe bike paths in and around rural/suberban communities...rather than bike paths to nowhere, which is what they do in our area...I think that woul dbe a simple solution.
I know that you all will tell me that the roads themselves will become bike paths soon enough, but I think we'll have some form of car/truck for the forseeable future. If bus service stops for kids, it'll be hard for them to get to school.
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Re: Wanted: Simple Solutions. Please Apply Within.

Unread postby careinke » Wed 11 Jun 2008, 12:40:38

I agree mommy, all roads should be required to have bike paths beside them. Perhaps even have a sidewalk between the bike path and road.

I would also like to add to my grow a garden solution a couple of other ideas.

It seems that the root to all of the upcoming problems are 1. Overpopulation and 2. over consumption.

So my four point plan for saving the world. LOL

1. Tax consumption and not income.

2. In order to receive government aid you must consent to sterilization.

3. Require bike paths and sidewalks on all roads

4. Grow a garden

Cliff (Start a rEVOLution, grow a garden)
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Re: Wanted: Simple Solutions. Please Apply Within.

Unread postby cube » Wed 11 Jun 2008, 19:15:23

To be blunt I don't have any "solutions".
However I think some countries will do a much better job of transitioning to a post PO world.
1) few will actually prosper (near term)
2) some will be lucky just to survive
3) and the rest will collapse

Whenever anybody uses the word "government" and "manage" in the same sentence, it gives me goosebumps. However putting ideology aside and looking at the facts we can see a nation like Iran (that sits on an ocean of oil) have gasoline shortages while in France (no oil, no coal, no natural gas) has a stable supply of electricity.
Any nation that's doing a bad job of managing it's resources today will most likely end up as item 3) on the above list.

my 2 cents
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Re: Wanted: Simple Solutions. Please Apply Within.

Unread postby Denny » Thu 12 Jun 2008, 15:58:32

MrBill wrote:Wanted: Simple Solutions. Please Apply Within.

    Must have low economic costs
    with few negative social consequences.
    Must work well under stress
    in a multi-cultural environment.
    Must be politically acceptable to everyone,
    offensive to no one.
    Must be flexible and willing to travel.
    Radical solutions need not apply.



I guess that is why Ron Paul is out of contention for president now.
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Re: Wanted: Simple Solutions. Please Apply Within.

Unread postby MrBill » Mon 16 Jun 2008, 05:03:47

I guess if Ron Paul is so popular then he could run as an Independent? Personally, I do not put my faith in politicians of any stripe. They're part of the problem. Not part of the solution.
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Re: Wanted: Simple Solutions. Please Apply Within.

Unread postby MrBill » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 04:07:55

Thanks to MOCKBA for bringing this article to my attention. Financial contagion from the subprime lead credit crisis as it spreads across the developed world and now into Asia. This does not fall under simple solutions, but more like the unintended consequences of sloppy lending practices.

The following brief mention in a recent article (Cheap talk, pricey banks, Asia Times Online, June 4, 2008) now appears to be rapidly becoming the main story in the region:

Vietnam represents a cautionary example for all Asian governments. The country attempted to fight market attempts to push the value of its currency, the dong, higher. This was "achieved" by strong-arm tactics including the arrest of some bankers and pushing through drastic limitations on foreign investors. Stuck with a number of their investments, foreign investors have pushed up Vietnam's credit costs in external markets, by more than 100 basis points in the past two weeks alone, essentially rendering any recourse to such financing untenable for the country. Meanwhile, the loss of investor confidence has pushed stock markets into a downward spiral, with the benchmark index falling every day in May (absolutely unprecedented anywhere in the world).

This is the problem with traditional Asian responses to market forces, dictated as they are by communist ideology rather than rational understanding. The fallout from Vietnam though is quite negative for smaller Asian economies, such as the Philippines, as it shows the limits to market patience with such government shenanigans. A rising US dollar would make matters worse for Asia in the short run, by creating greater inflation and sharper declines in household wealth, even as the concurrent benefits on exports fail to materialize thanks to a US recession.

Source: Vietnam's hard economic lesson for China
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Re: Wanted: Simple Solutions. Please Apply Within.

Unread postby mgibbons19 » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 07:27:58

The country attempted to fight market attempts to push ... its ... dong, higher.


Why would you not want your dong higher? Sounds like price controls on prostitution.


(Sorry, someone had to)
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Re: Wanted: Simple Solutions. Please Apply Within.

Unread postby MrBill » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 07:55:08

mgibbons19 wrote:
The country attempted to fight market attempts to push ... its ... dong, higher.


Why would you not want your dong higher? Sounds like price controls on prostitution.


(Sorry, someone had to)


According to the Minister of Culture, Sum-long Dong, there is no prostitution in Vietnam. That is purely a capitalistic vice. They were all re-educated in Vietnam's great Rice not Vice campaign.
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Re: Wanted: Simple Solutions. Please Apply Within.

Unread postby MrBill » Tue 01 Jul 2008, 04:53:47

[align=center]Don't worry. Be happy![/align]

Denmark, with its democracy, social equality and peaceful atmosphere, is the happiest country in the world, researchers said on Monday.

Zimbabwe, torn by political and social strife, is the least happy, while the world's richest nation, the United States, ranks 16th.

Overall, the world is getting happier, according to the U.S. government-funded World Values Survey, done regularly by a global network of social scientists.

It found increased happiness from 1981 to 2007 in 45 of 52 countries analyzed.


source: Denmark world's happiest country
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Re: Wanted: Simple Solutions. Please Apply Within.

Unread postby efarmer » Tue 01 Jul 2008, 20:45:05

Gardens, closing off unused room to heat or cool, all manners
of personal behavior changes to become more sustainable,
including the personal financial fundamentals Mr. Bill rings
like a bell so often in this forum are all step one.

Here on the edge of suburbia and farm country where I live,
(right on the edge boundary) I am experiencing my kid have
friends tell her (and her tell them) that a trip to such and such
is out due to the high cost of gasoline. Virtually all these kids
have been digitally connected since they were weaned. I
simply observe how incredibly quickly and cleverly they text
message and phone each other and engineer solutions.
Now 4 kids are piling in a car, and one parent makes the
delivery leg of the trip and another makes the pickup leg.

We need to take all the possible personal steps and then
network in our immediate communities both verbally and
digitally and share any and all possible resources including
garden produce, car rides, reusable goods, etc. to beat
at the juggernaut of the petroleum cost avalanche.

Sound individual cells (families, groups, neighborhoods, etc.)
networking with other sound cells to share resources and
becoming a redundant and rapidly responsive and
reconfigurable fabric of support without government
insertion of bureaucracy seems likely to happen because
the need is there, and the digital communications is
pervasive to glue it all together.

Tell a kid no and give them a reason and watch them
figure out a solution. It is humbling and reassuring at
the same time. Once the blasted Hollywood shows and
media start showing some examples and making it
"cool" (or whatever the right slang term du jour is now)
you watch our kids show the adults how to do it.

When you get on a major highway and see 2 people commuting
in at least half of the cars, it will be a sign our heads are finally
popping out of our butts.

The adults will have to figure out a way to trade some sort
of petroleum chits when they share rides, but as always
cash works pretty good and is always welcome.

Kunstler says: "we will do what we have done until we can't
and then we won't". I agree totally. We are starting to see
a tinge of "can't" come into the everyday living equation,
and people are going to respond with the tools they have
to work with. Consume less and communicate more and
share resources to become more able to cope with personal
crisis via shared resources. If you are inclined, pray hard.

It is going to be fascinating when it isn't terrifying.
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Re: Wanted: Simple Solutions. Please Apply Within.

Unread postby vaseline2008 » Thu 03 Jul 2008, 16:57:30

How about poultry? Chickens in particular:

1. Grows pretty fast to adulthood.
2. Produces eggs.
3. Butchered for meat.
4. Creates manure for fertilizer, fuel, or other uses.
5. Chicken feathers (although not as nice as goose down) could be used for insulation purposes.
6. Butchered leftovers could be used for Depolymerization (I know, depolymerization is still under a lot of debate).

I'm not a poultry farmer but did go to a boarding school that had a poultry with over a 1000 chickens. Any comments?
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Re: Wanted: Simple Solutions. Please Apply Within.

Unread postby efarmer » Thu 03 Jul 2008, 17:07:45

Chickens are a very viable way to do small scale solutions
for personal or community projects. My neighbor,
Jim "Pretty Boy" Jenkins learned to strut around while
he bobs his head up and down from watching roosters
when he was a boy. Sure glad Pretty Boy don't crow
every morning when the sun comes up though.
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Re: Wanted: Simple Solutions. Please Apply Within.

Unread postby MrBill » Fri 04 Jul 2008, 03:13:43

Chickens, pigs, rabbits, etc. are all nice little money spinners for those that can in a rural setting. Those that are in the urban poor category will not have that luxury. Hard to grow livestock in an apartment block. Also you need feed, of course, and theft is a real issue. Definitely something that I would be commited to, but it will not alone mitigate our energy problems. Still, each to their own. All part of the big picture.
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Re: Wanted: Simple Solutions. Please Apply Within.

Unread postby MrBill » Fri 11 Jul 2008, 05:28:43

Over fishing, collapsing wild fish stocks and destruction of marine habitat directly affects over one billion people that rely on the sea for their livelihood. Add in population growth and further reductions in this capacity and perhaps as many as 3-4 billion may eventually be affected. As they shift consumption to land based agriculture that increase in consumption affects everyone globally. A tuna for your thoughts?

FORT LAUDERDALE, Florida (Reuters) - Like a tooth dipped in a glass of Coca-Cola, coral reefs, lobsters and other marine creatures that build calcified shells around themselves could soon dissolve as climate change turns the oceans increasingly acidic.

The carbon dioxide spewed into the atmosphere by factories, cars and power plants is not just raising temperatures. It is also causing what scientists call "ocean acidification" as around 25 percent of the excess CO2 is absorbed by the seas.

The threat to hard-bodied marine organisms, such as coral reefs already struggling with warming waters, is alarming, and possibly quite imminent, marine scientists gathered this week for a coral reef conference in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, said.


source: Acidifying oceans pose danger to coral reefs

Image
Last edited by MrBill on Fri 11 Jul 2008, 08:44:49, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Wanted: Simple Solutions. Please Apply Within.

Unread postby patience » Fri 11 Jul 2008, 08:38:30

Worldwide, scalable solutions to depleting fossil fuels don't exist in my opinion. Small, individual solutions are the only answers I can see. We are adopting these:

Smaller used area of our existing home, by installing doors so close off areas, plus super insulation to cut energy use.

Summer kitchen/greenhouse with solar heat gain.

Passive solar window box heaters, with woodstove backup that provides cooking heat in winter.

Clotheslines, indoors and out.

Bicycles with trailers. I will add a 49cc 4 cycle motor to one for town trips.

Home business means no commute.

Garden, orchard, and misc. perennials instead of a lawn, and fenced for chickens. Small livestock are used for food as needed, saving refrigeration or freezing/canning.

Root cellar, food drying, and canning.

Cisterns for home and garden water, plus a septic system means no water/sewer bills.

Paid mortgage reduces cash outlays.

We chose an area with low property tax rates. It is farm country, where we have access to farm products by local trade.

My wife sews some of our clothes, I own a machine shop that does most all our own repairs and do our own building construction of local lumber. (Minimal).

We eat seasonally, mostly from our own produce and local foods. We grind our own flour and bake bread. We make soap from fat saved from the kitchen.

In the words of a Quaker Friend, when asked about his philosophy, "Live as the best example you can be. Clean up your own backyard first, before preaching to others. Do that, and you'll be pretty busy." A fine man that I miss a lot since he's gone, but I remember him well.
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Re: Wanted: Simple Solutions. Please Apply Within.

Unread postby MrBill » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 04:14:19

[align=center]SNAFU Cypriot-Style[/align]
Cyprus is experiencing one of its worst water shortages. It desalinates sea water, but not enough to cover the needs of its 800,000 people and visitors at the height of the tourist season.


Drought-stricken Cyprus is unable to distribute a shipment of water from Greece directly to households because it smells bad, authorities said on Wednesday.

A tanker containing 40,000 cubic meters of water has been anchored off the parched Mediterranean island's south coast for two weeks awaiting completion of the infrastructure needed to bring it onshore.

The Cypriot agriculture ministry said the water's quality remains good but it has a bad odor, possibly because of its extended storage time or treatment with chlorine. Consequently, it will be channeled into an aquifer rather than directly into the island's water network as previously indicated.

"It will be deposited in the aquifer, to replenish it and where it will undergo a natural filtering process," said water department official Kyriakos Kyrou, who denied the water would be discarded.


source: Cyprus homes can't use "smelly" Greek water
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Re: Wanted: Simple Solutions. Please Apply Within.

Unread postby MrBill » Tue 05 Aug 2008, 04:12:08

"The majority of biomass carbon in natural forests resides in the woody biomass of large old trees. Commercial logging changes the age structure of forests so that the average age of trees is much younger,"
Not only did natural forests store more carbon but because they remained untouched, they stored the carbon for longer than plantation forests which were cut down on a rotation basis.

The report found that "natural forests are more resilient to climate change and disturbances than plantations".

Co-author of the report Brendan Mackey said protecting natural forests served two purposes: it maintained a large carbon sink and stopped the release of the forest's stored carbon.

"Protecting the carbon in natural forests is preventing an additional emission of carbon from what we get from burning fossil fuel," Mackey told Reuters.

The carbon stored in the world's biomass and soil was approximately three times the amount in the atmosphere, said the report. About 35 percent of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is a result of past deforestation and 18 percent of annual global emissions is from continued deforestation.

The report said logging resulted in more than a 40 percent reduction in long-term carbon compared with unlogged forests.


source: Untouched forests store 3 times more carbon
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