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PeakOil is You

Should this site be shut down?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby REAL Green » Tue 21 Apr 2020, 05:05:48

Newfie wrote:
KingM wrote:I do feel ridiculous when I remember wondering 15 years ago if I was buying the last gas powered car I'd ever own. I thought by 2020, oil would be too expensive to use for driving automobiles. Yet here on 20 April, 2020, oil prices went negative because you could not give it away.


King, You are not ridiculous, the world financial system is ridiculous. You can’t predict well what mad men will do, that’s why we call them mad.


Funny, I have thought that about the last two I bought and I agree with you Newfie
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby longpig » Tue 21 Apr 2020, 06:32:24

I'm the OP, so 21 days later and where are we? $40 negative on WTI, SHUT IT DOWN!!! lol. Yes that is right, someone will pay me $40 to take a barrel of oil.

Image
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9AsPfdv0pUA
First Negative Interest Rates, Now Negative Oil Prices - Ep 564
63,659 views•Streamed live 14 hours ago
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby Carnot » Tue 21 Apr 2020, 06:43:27

Ralfy,

You make a good point. Certain members simply cannot accept the concept of peak oil. That is fine by me each to their own. But puerile attacks and comments only confirm what we already know. That their ability to think logically through a theory based upon its merit is absent and because they have nothing left to offer they resort to personal attacks.

Peak Oil is a theory and theories are provided for scrutiny. So far there has not been any proof that Peak Oil exists or not. Peak Oil will only be proven when we wake up one day and realise that oil production cannot be increased (economically). I use the term economically because what will determine when peak oil arrives, and it will, is when the energy inputs are such that there is not enough net energy gain to offset the cost of extraction.

One of learned "friends" cites the success of shale being down to technology. Sure, when I was drilling oil wells 40 years ago things were very different. MDW was being talked about. Now it is real. But where are all the profits in shale oil and gas? Perhaps one or two of the Peak Oil deniers would like to comment. Or is it that they have never set foot on a drilling rig and are merely armchair experts like Daniel Yergin of IHS who is often cited as the debunker of Peak Oil. How he has dined on his Pullitzer Prize.

Then we have those informed experts who believe that electric mobility is the way forward. Good luck with that because producing an electric vehicles is many more times energy intensive than one with a combustion engine and will require a huge amount of high tech materials (including plastics). I do not doubt that oil should not be burned in combustion engines but to produce many of the plastics that are now necessary to produce the food we eat and the homes that we live in requires vast and increasing amounts of crude oil. The is no way we can produce anywhere near enough bioplastics and the same issue of energy inputs remain. I know because I am working on the subject right now. The idea of a circular economy sounds like utopia; the reality is markedly different as many plastics are only able to be downcycled.

That should give the cornucopian deniers something to chew on.

Then I would like to ask the cornucopians how we are going to feed 10 billion people in a soon as 30 years from now and still have a planet worth living on?
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby mousepad » Tue 21 Apr 2020, 07:58:28

Simon_R wrote:average hp 50


You;re assuming that 50hp is constantly expended to propel the car. That is not the case.

A better metric is to start with Wh per mile. It's hard to find numbers. What I could find was 300Wh/mile, or approx 3 miles/kWh.

So to drive 13000 miles you would need 4.3MWh.
One solar panel generates roughly 30kWh/month.
So you will only need 12 panels (4.3MWh / (12*30kWh)), which is enough to supply your yearly driving needs.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby REAL Green » Tue 21 Apr 2020, 08:42:34

mousepad wrote: One solar panel generates roughly 30kWh/month. So you will only need 12 panels (4.3MWh / (12*30kWh)), which is enough to supply your yearly driving needs.


Man, that is not my experience. I have 12 300Watt pannels and becuase of the variable weather I would guess on average it would be between 15-20 kwh/month per panel. I am in MO Ozarks so that might be part of the issue compared to the southwest. I have a 48volt system with Trojan AGL batteries. I plan on getting better batteries but have been waiting for a leap in performance and drop in price. Not sure if that will happen but the ones I have work fine for what I do and that is capture solar energy during the day. I do not use batteries at night and instead have grid power. I switch between the two with transfer switches on each circuit in the breaker box. I also see a problem with having the best sun conditions at the right time to give the serious charging most EVs need. What I would like is an EV auto and tractor that are less powerful, easier to charge with pannels, and cheaper. There is a Renault EV being marketed in China, https://insideevs.com/news/330835/renau ... hina-soon/ in the $8000 range that sounds interesting. I would prefer to have a small pickup but they seem less likely. I have not found a good 30HP electric tractor but hope the Europeans will have one mass produced someday. I have only been doing this solar stuff 3 years so am in a learning process. Not much help around this area becuase so few people are into renewables yet.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby Simon_R » Tue 21 Apr 2020, 08:48:49

Hi Mousepad

Revising the figures accordingly

Watts Per Mile 300
average miles 13,000
Kw per american 300 * 13000 = 3900000 = 3.9 Mw
Mw per 75% Americans 19.5 * 150000000 = 585000000 Mw = 585000Tw

Assuming even distribution through 365 days per year

585000 Tw / 365 = 1603tw

Assuming even Charging patterns per 24 hour day

1603 tw / 24 = 66.7 TWH extra needed

in perspective thats an extra 133 CCGT stations going flat out
or
Another 10 of the largest nuclear power stations ever built

and this assumes an even charging pattern, so you could double this in reality to 20 of the largest nuclear stations ever built or 266 CCGT stations.

This assumes no downtime, so realistically these number need a margin for safety and this ladies and gents is just the USA

Thanks

Simon
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby mousepad » Tue 21 Apr 2020, 08:58:42

Simon_R wrote:Another 10 of the largest nuclear power stations ever built


EV only make sense when coupled with home solar panels.
The cost of installing solar is usually ignored by ev fans.
However 12 panels per driven car doesn't seem such hopeless situation.
What do you think?
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby Simon_R » Tue 21 Apr 2020, 09:15:20

Hi Mousepad

the problem is that most cars are driven during the day... when the sun is shining so you would not only need the panels, but supplementary storage and inverters as well (to feed back into the car)
The also pre supposes that all people have the real estate to install the panels, and this kinda rules out anyone in appartments or rented accommodation.
As Dave pointed out the panels vary in efficacy depending on lat and long.
There would also be no charging when you went on holidays ?

its a Gordian knot.

thanks

Simon
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby mousepad » Tue 21 Apr 2020, 09:27:45

Simon_R wrote:Hi Mousepad

the problem is that most cars are driven during the day... when the sun is shining so you would not only need the panels, but supplementary storage and inverters as well (to feed back into the car)
The also pre supposes that all people have the real estate to install the panels, and this kinda rules out anyone in appartments or rented accommodation.
As Dave pointed out the panels vary in efficacy depending on lat and long.
There would also be no charging when you went on holidays ?

its a Gordian knot.

thanks

Simon


Well, I agree. It's certainly not a solution for everyone. But with 12 panels per car it seems achievable for at least most home owners.
Also the home panels need to be tied into the grid, such that during the day they can supply the power to the charger stations at work.
The panels could of course also be part of large solar farms, doesn't really matter where they are.

Having to use batteries at home makes the situation less attractive, I agree.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby mousepad » Tue 21 Apr 2020, 09:43:51

Simon_R wrote:1603 tw / 24 = 66.7 TWH extra needed


I mean, in the end the job is colossal. No doubt about it.
The US oil use is roughly 20M barrels/day. THe energy content of this oil is 3.4*10^13 Wh.
This would require 4*10^10 solar panels installed.

Not accounting for all the issues of intermittent and storage and transmission etc.

And then add in the energy from coal which also needs replacing. It's hard to see that this is going to work at a scale required to make a difference.
Last edited by mousepad on Tue 21 Apr 2020, 09:54:18, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby Simon_R » Tue 21 Apr 2020, 09:48:27

Hi Mouse

For an individual yes this makes sense, but (there is always a but)

You would be feeding electricity into the grid during the day (off-peak or MM1 hours) and then drawing it out again at Night (Peak - MM2) ,this means that during the day, we could cycle down a few stations, but we would still need to be able to supply current demand, plus whatever car charging is needed at night.
Currently the Grid is balanced with a significant margin, this allows for a steady supply to put even a small percentage of EV's charging would need extra capacity built out.

Thanks

Simon
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby mousepad » Tue 21 Apr 2020, 09:52:49

Simon_R wrote:but we would still need to be able to supply current demand, plus whatever car charging is needed at night.


That is true. And once you take intermittance into account, which will either require storage during surplus hours or expensive standby capacity ready to go at a moments notice, it seems clear to me that electricity will get a whole lot more expensive in the coming years. And ev fans who claim they drive for cheap might wake up to a surprise.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 21 Apr 2020, 09:57:50

REAL Green wrote:Nope, anything that disrupts or disturbs is bad for investing


Nobody here should be investing in the fossil fuel industry anyway. I don't care about the Koch brothers' portfolio.

REAL Green wrote:It is not about hot or cold being the norm it is about the disruption from stable that is the key variable that is dangerous.


It's not that I don't care about the economy as much as I don't draw this cause and effect relationship back to oil. Only looking through peak oil shades is why peakers got it so wrong in calling 2008 the end of the world as we know it.

REAL Green wrote:
AH, where did I not take ownership? I am a doomer “lite” and a green prepper. Does that satisfy you forum bouncer?


I find your approach sort of charming in a retro sort of way. Hey, if you're happy with it, fine, but the way you broadcast your lifestyle as if it might be an attractive option, well, I think it's been proven not to gain traction. And you said it yourself, even your own neighbors aren't very green despite being in a rural area.

I used to briefly hang out on Greer's Green Wizardry forum. I think Greer's approach of quietly prepping and not evangelizing is best.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby Simon_R » Tue 21 Apr 2020, 09:59:25

Thus the rollout of smart meters, to expose the retail to the vagaries of the wholesale market.

On the upside, mankind is quite resourceful, we will be fine, but more travel by train, less personal transport, more trams (love those things).
Governments need to realise that trains are a service more than a for profit initiative.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby ralfy » Wed 22 Apr 2020, 03:24:04

longpig wrote:I'm the OP, so 21 days later and where are we? $40 negative on WTI, SHUT IT DOWN!!! lol. Yes that is right, someone will pay me $40 to take a barrel of oil.

Image
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9AsPfdv0pUA
First Negative Interest Rates, Now Negative Oil Prices - Ep 564
63,659 views•Streamed live 14 hours ago


The price goes up, peak oil is a fact. It goes down, it's a theory.

Okidoky.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby ralfy » Wed 22 Apr 2020, 03:42:12

A theory is something plausible, which in this case means that there's a possibility that production will never peak. I think it's safe to say that that won't happen.

In which case, what's being theorized isn't peak oil but the timing. That will be dependent on many factors. For example,

1. The price. Some are happy that the price has dropped, but it's obvious that oil companies aren't. If the price is too low and given enough time, some companies will close shop. Unless someone else is willing to reopen them, which means paying for their liabilities, then it will be difficult to bring production back online, which means if demand is high enough, then the price will rise once more, but what about production?

2. Financial speculation. Apparently, most don't know anything about futures, etc., where people buy oil that's not yet available using money that they don't have, among many other things. But that doesn't help much, which explains why price goes up and down. What's clear, though, is that as the incredibly gullible laugh as price drops they don't realize that they're income and returns on investment may be dropping, too.

3. Demand. That means few are buying, and that can mean few are buying many other things. That means demand is dropping with earnings.

Etc.

What a capitalist world wants, then, is a steady increase in production needed to meet a steady increase in demand brought about by a steady increase in population plus a steady increase in people who are earning more money to buy more things which means more oil will be needed, etc.

What gets in the way of that is financial speculation, which may help fund production of oil that's more expensive but may also lead to volatile pricing which doesn't help businesses that need to pay for their costs. Add to that financial crashes leading to bailouts, for which recovery takes place by increasing debt. And then there's technology which makes businesses more productive but also encourages people to consume more, not to mention black swans like what's happening right now.

But the real obstacles include a planet with physical limitations plus environmental damage that won't allow for supply and demand to rise steadily. In which case, anyone who thinks a site like this is not necessary can only do so by arguing that none of the points raised above is true.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby C8 » Wed 22 Apr 2020, 13:20:40

Carnot wrote: Peak Oil is a theory and theories are provided for scrutiny. So far there has not been any proof that Peak Oil exists or not.


This depends on how you define "Peak Oil". If you define it as "one day we will extract an amount of oil that will never be exceeded again in one day" then it must be a fact as this is an impossible to avoid scenario

If you mean that Peak Oil is "the collapse from civilization due to an inability to find other energy sources after oil extraction costs increase so much as to be become economically nonviable" then it is definitely just a theory

My take is that people always over-react. The Peak Oil movement was born from an over-reaction. Some saw a temporary decline in oil production as a harbinger of doom when it was simply a matter of new technology taking a little while to be developed.

Now we are over-reacting on the other side- assuming that an ocean of cheap oil is going to be around for the next 100 years. My guess is that things will change radically within the next 20 years and that the Peak Oil debate will come back.

But by then the founder of this site will have passed and the site will be gone!

BTW- we are also in the middle of an over-reaction @ this virus. Everybody is focused on lock-downs, testing, and vaccines. They are considering cancelling fall sporting events. Nobody is considering that a medical treatment may be developed soon that alleviates symptoms and saves most of the patients.

People ALWAYS over-react to new challenges and societies amplify this.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 22 Apr 2020, 13:26:40

ralfy wrote:
longpig wrote:I'm the OP, so 21 days later and where are we? $40 negative on WTI, SHUT IT DOWN!!! lol. Yes that is right, someone will pay me $40 to take a barrel of oil.

Image
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9AsPfdv0pUA
First Negative Interest Rates, Now Negative Oil Prices - Ep 564
63,659 views•Streamed live 14 hours ago


The price goes up, peak oil is a fact. It goes down, it's a theory.

Okidoky.

In science, a theory has enough evidence, that for all practical purposes, it can be treated as fact, UNTIL a better (peer reviewed) theory with better evidence that explains things better replaces it.

Gravity is a good example. Gravity is still a theory, but it is strong enough that we build most of our society around dealing with it. And we've proven gravity waves exist, but as far as I know, not gravitons (the particle supposedly associated with gravity waves).

If peak oil is a valid theory (and given that the size of the planet is finite and that abiotic oil production isn't valid, it the concept seems completely valid to me), then it should NOT be dependent on the current economic outlook. (Note: acknowledging that peak oil is valid does NOT say ANYTHING about what decade or century recoverable oil supplies will run out).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby C8 » Wed 22 Apr 2020, 13:30:28

ralfy wrote:1. What a capitalist world wants, then, is a steady increase in production needed to meet a steady increase in demand brought about by a steady increase in population plus a steady increase in people who are earning more money to buy more things which means more oil will be needed, etc.

2. But the real obstacles include a planet with physical limitations plus environmental damage that won't allow for supply and demand to rise steadily.


Your entire post is excellent and, frankly, could have been written by me. I have extracted and numbered two quotes (above) though which increasingly disturb me.

Added together, one can see that capitalism cannot go on. But the only alternative is socialism or some form of govt. controlled economy - which concentrates power in the hands of govt. And history shows that concentrated power always leads to mass suffering, genocide, war and environmental destruction. There are no exceptions.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby longpig » Fri 24 Apr 2020, 16:15:50

Your entire post is excellent and, frankly, could have been written by me.


Quite the humble one aren't you.
"Religion is regarded by the common people as true - by the wise as false - and by the rulers as useful."
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