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PeakOil is You

Should this site be shut down?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby REAL Green » Mon 20 Apr 2020, 05:54:46

Simon_R wrote:
The doom is still there, but we manage to keep kicking the can down the road with technology, we have to hope that we don't trip, because PO is still nipping at our heels.

I don't think we will have a huge collapse, but my view is PO keeps nipping and each time, lifestyles diminish a bit, nationalism rises a bit, balkanisation (our british friends).

Simon


Simon, I am where you are on doom. Doom is out there and now that we had the pandemic disruption to the global economy it is pointing to a less interconnected and potent economic system. I feel many techs and the number of potent techs is now surely diminished in effectiveness for example EVs and renewables. This means problems will not be managed as well from the equipment point of view but also people will not be as interested becuase their problems will have increased by being poorer. Being poorer could be a good thing with degrowth creating a more resilient system but on the trip down there will be more pain than gain. Once stability has been reached maybe society can reorganize some with good insight on a better way to live with less energy needs and less waste streams. Down is still decline in many ways. Collapse is ever possible but not assured. The degree and duration of the decline is important. We still do not know how the global economic lockdown will damage things so I do not want to be too wishful. I am an optimistic pessimist. The pessimism is we will be poorer but the optimism is it will be good for us in many cases. I come from a wealthy family but now I am living differently. This is an individual situation but I have found many pluses to having less maybe society can find a silver lining in decline too.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 20 Apr 2020, 08:48:44

REAL Green wrote:EV's will save us crowd. LOL. Nothing at this point indicates EVs will scale to do that. They currently are not showing a good growth rate


It's hard to expect that given the cost of gas (even before coronavirus). What you are seeing, however, is:

1) perfection of the technology
2) laying down manufacturing infrastructure
3) laying down the charging network

All these things are prerequisites for the scale out and were not there back when the peak oil movement was a thing.

What do you think happens when oil spikes up next time?

We get the final piece in the puzzle.

CONSUMER DEMAND

Doomers don't like this because it sets up EVs as a refuge for the "happy motoring" lifestyle and salvation for the suburbs, but it places them in a situation of having to attack the same sorts of green tech they once supported. But back then it was easy to endorse EVs because they thought we'd never get them because of evil GM/Cobasys, etc... When you want doom you're forced into downplaying any possible hopeful developments which makes said doomers rhetoric just as hurtful as the fossil fuel lobby. That has been a mainstay here at peakoil.com for some time. So please be mindful of this phenomenon.

REAL Green wrote:The economy is now toast for a few years or worse making EV's less likely to be purchased.


And will also mean less gasoline purchased, therefore it's sort of a wash as far as judging whether we'll get caught by an oil spike and fall into mad max the way a few remaining peakers still expect.

REAL Green wrote:EVs are dirty too and only marginally greener.


Here comes the FUD. I take it you're the donkey cart is the only green solution crowd.

REAL Green wrote:EV guys many times are fake green type who think becuase they bought a fancy fun toy they are also green.


Would you rather we drive Hummers? One does what one can.

REAL Green wrote:Many fake greens drive more becuase they think they drive green.


Do you know any of these? Seems like you're on a mission to demonize here.

REAL Green wrote:I would like to have one


Ah, envy.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby REAL Green » Mon 20 Apr 2020, 11:08:09

asg70 wrote:
REAL Green wrote:EV's will save us crowd. LOL. Nothing at this point indicates EVs will scale to do that. They currently are not showing a good growth rate

1) perfection of the technology
2) laying down manufacturing infrastructure
3) laying down the charging network
All these things are prerequisites for the scale out and were not there back when the peak oil movement was a thing.
What do you think happens when oil spikes up next time?

And will also mean less gasoline purchased, therefore it's sort of a wash as far as judging whether we'll get caught by an oil spike and fall into mad max the way a few remaining peakers still expect.

Here comes the FUD. I take it you're the donkey cart is the only green solution crowd.

Would you rather we drive Hummers? One does what one can.

Do you know any of these? Seems like you're on a mission to demonize here.
[.


Perfection of the technology is not going to proceed that much further to do the magic trick of creating an avalanche of EV numbers. That is the typical techno optimist attitude. If you build it complexed and cheap, they will buy it. What if your people are broke with appears like many of us might be soon? Laying down the infrastructure is a huge hidden cost you guys dismiss. Do you really think oil will spike next time, rather more likely, who knows? The economy is likely permanently damaged. How bad that is time will tell. So even if prices spike it might not convert into a massive EV buildout. You just do the worn out if oil is expensive renewables will respond song and dance. That does not necessarily work anymore. As Far as your FUD concerns the only real solution is less driving for the holistic picture but your wealthy fake green techno optimist can’t stand the thought. I mean what will you do with your 6 figure salaries. As far as your Hummer driving thing compared to a EV thing. I again stress don’t drive either. You wealth fake greens like your fancy $50 EV’s instead of the cheap kind. It is a big show of hypocrisy in my book. I am not demonizing EVs. I am putting them in perspective and putting fake greens like you in your place.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 20 Apr 2020, 11:34:17

REAL Green wrote:Perfection of the technology is not going to proceed that much further to do the magic trick of creating an avalanche of EV numbers.


Why not? It's not like we still use steam locomotives or mechanical calculators and slide-rules. Progress happens, step by step.

Car culture is increasingly becoming niche anyway. Sure, a stubborn segment of the population wants their muscle cars or their big trucks, but the generational trend is away from the mechanical (a 20th century phenomenon) and towards the electronic (21st century). EVs as rolling smart phones fit that picture more than big belching ICE cars.

REAL Green wrote:What if your people are broke with appears like many of us might be soon?


Wasn't that the go-to talking point in 2008? Kinda counting your chickens before they're hatched again.

REAL Green wrote:Laying down the infrastructure is a huge hidden cost you guys dismiss.


Well, a lot of it is already done. Tesla's Supercharger network is there. The first round of Electrify America is pretty much there. There are two functioning car-making Gigafactories and a third breaking ground in Germany. VW is already geared up to make ID.3s.

REAL Green wrote:The economy is likely permanently damaged.


Did it ever occur to you that this position might be colored by your doomerism?

REAL Green wrote:So even if prices spike it might not convert into a massive EV buildout.


Think of it this way. If we head into a new regime where high gasoline prices have become the norm, even if the auto industry is reeling, would they really want to die on the hill of propping up the ICE when they have an out with EVs? They will at least make the switch to get the few people who DO have money into showrooms.

The big draw of buying a new car in such a future will be to cut dependence on the pump. The easier pathway will be to just keep driving their existing gas cars or buy a used car and avoid the car payments.

So anyway you slice it, high oil prices in the near future = game over for ICE new car sales.

Not only that but not ALL of the planet has Trump-like environmental policies. Why do you think VW is pushing EVs so much in the first place? It's because it was hit hard with dieselgate. In areas of the planet that will become increasingly concerned about climate change they will race ahead regardless of what the deplorables in the US do. And this will start to reduce global oil demand, put a cap on how high oil will go, and preserve BAU as we know it.

REAL Green wrote:As Far as your FUD concerns the only real solution is less driving


And we'll have that too--with telecommuting. What we won't have is a rustic World Made By Hand scenario anytime soon.

REAL Green wrote:You wealth fake greens like your fancy $50 EV’s


Ad hominems like this are a sign of someone on the rhetorical ropes.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby REAL Green » Mon 20 Apr 2020, 12:30:49

asg70 wrote:
REAL Green wrote:Perfection of the technology is not going to proceed that much further to do the magic trick of creating an avalanche of EV numbers.


Why not? It's not like we still use steam locomotives or mechanical calculators and slide-rules. Progress happens, step by step.


We are talking degree here and time plus the mountaintop you need to get to.

Car culture is increasingly becoming niche anyway. Sure, a stubborn segment of the population wants their muscle cars or their big trucks, but the generational trend is away from the mechanical (a 20th century phenomenon) and towards the electronic (21st century). EVs as rolling smart phones fit that picture more than big belching ICE cars.


I agree to a point with a certain segment but much of the population is unimpressed with EVs and especially with their price tag. It is not clear the economy will support a massive build out. There is a huge vehicle stock of well-made ICE that have years of service left.

REAL Green wrote:What if your people are broke with appears like many of us might be soon?


Wasn't that the go-to talking point in 2008? Kinda counting your chickens before they're hatched again.


Yea, and didn't a decade of debt and financial repression create some major problems? Now we have debt going ballistic and deficits in the atmosphere and you are claiming there is a chicken counting thing before they hatch? I think some hatched already

REAL Green wrote:Laying down the infrastructure is a huge hidden cost you guys dismiss.


Well, a lot of it is already done. Tesla's Supercharger network is there. The first round of Electrify America is pretty much there. There are two functioning car-making Gigafactories and a third breaking ground in Germany. VW is already geared up to make ID.3s.


Nothing close to an avalanche and now the global economy is damaged more. I don't see a critical mass for a break out into a major transition.

REAL Green wrote:The economy is likely permanently damaged.


Did it ever occur to you that this position might be colored by your doomerism?


Well, yea but this time it has feet and it is not something you techno optimist can dismiss with your usual doom derision.

REAL Green wrote:So even if prices spike it might not convert into a massive EV buildout.


Think of it this way. If we head into a new regime where high gasoline prices have become the norm, even if the auto industry is reeling, would they really want to die on the hill of propping up the ICE when they have an out with EVs? They will at least make the switch to get the few people who DO have money into showrooms.


High gasoline prices may or may not become the norm plus there may not be money to buy even if prices are high or low. EV's are not this magic alternative. They are a niche option for the wealthy. That is not the material for an avalanche.

So anyway you slice it, high oil prices in the near future = game over for ICE new car sales.


wishful thinking

In areas of the planet that will become increasingly concerned about climate change they will race ahead regardless of what the deplorables in the US do. And this will start to reduce global oil demand, put a cap on how high oil will go, and preserve BAU as we know it.


EVs and renewables are not going to save the climate. Degrowth is the most important aspect to lowering emission. Renewables can EVs can play a role in niche applications.

REAL Green wrote:You wealth fake greens like your fancy $50 EV’s


Ad hominems like this are a sign of someone on the rhetorical ropes.


WOW, Mr. Ad hominem call the kettle black and expects to be a hit. LOL
Last edited by Tanada on Mon 20 Apr 2020, 13:12:55, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: fixed broken quotes
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 20 Apr 2020, 12:45:54

REAL Green wrote:Yea, and didn't a decade of debt and financial repression create some major problems?


Problems that were largely overcome within the first few years. We reached near full employment and skyrocketing stock prices before COVID. It believe it was actually the longest period of economic prosperity in the history of the US.

REAL Green wrote:I don't see a critical mass for a break out into a major transition.


Of course you don't. "I don't see" is famous last words for doomer prognosticators.

Pride goeth before the fall.

REAL Green wrote:Well, yea but this time it has feet


This time it's different(TM).

REAL Green wrote:there may not be money to buy


When all else fails, doomers always fall back to imagining people wearing wooden barrels.

REAL Green wrote:EVs and renewables are not going to save the climate.


I didn't say they would. But they will prolong BAU.

REAL Green wrote:Degrowth is the most important aspect to lowering emission.


People don't do degrowth (aka powerdown) voluntarily.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby REAL Green » Mon 20 Apr 2020, 15:33:18

REAL Green wrote:Yea, and didn't a decade of debt and financial repression create some major problems?

asg70 wrote:Problems that were largely overcome within the first few years. We reached near full employment and skyrocketing stock prices before COVID. It believe it was actually the longest period of economic prosperity in the history of the US. .


What? Largely overcome in first few years? More like a binge drink-a-thon of increasing debt and ongoing ultra-low rates so a better word is Band-Aid on a major wound. What? Longest period of economic prosperity? LOL. Yea if you are a 6 figure guy. What about the generations to come drowned in debt? No, wrong answer again.

REAL Green wrote: I don't see a critical mass for a break out into a major transition.

asg70 wrote:Of course you don't. "I don't see" is famous last words for doomer prognosticators.


Ah, I stand by my statement and your statement is the lame kind when you don’t have an argument because there is no break out yet with EV growth and there may never be.

REAL Green wrote: Well, yea but this time it has feet

asg70 wrote:This time it's different(TM).


Really? Says who?

REAL Green wrote:there may not be money to buy

asg70 wrote:When all else fails, doomers always fall back to imagining people wearing wooden barrels.


You techno optimist are habituated to steady average growth and which recently has been a huge Ponzi Scheme. You guys are bought into this party like the world is on solid footing. No wonder you are on a doomer site. Deep down you are not comfortable.

REAL Green wrote: EVs and renewables are not going to save the climate.

asg70 wrote:I didn't say they would. But they will prolong BAU.


LOL, you kinda did but I agree they will help in a small way prolong BAU.

REAL Green wrote: Degrowth is the most important aspect to lowering emission.

asg70 wrote:People don't do degrowth (aka powerdown) voluntarily.


I never said they will not and in fact I am telling people degrowth policies in a time of growth are likely not to happen. On the other hand, in times like this degrowth policies may be called for because the economy may be in trouble and triage will be needed to find enough wealth to go around. At some point on a finite planet there is not enough. Techno optimist like you realize this but you guys can’t ever admit we are near that point. You guys always push out the time far off into the future.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 20 Apr 2020, 16:28:31

REAL Green wrote:Yea if you are a 6 figure guy.


Envy...again.

BTW, I got myself out of debt BEFORE the bottom fell through on the credit crisis. I wasn't an idiot like all those who were suckered into those liar loans who then fell into foreclosure. Make yourself less vulnerable and you have less to worry about in a downturn. (And by "less vulnerable" I'm not talking about how to gather up and leach acorns.)

REAL Green wrote:there is no break out yet with EV growth and there may never be.


You'll have to do more than just make a pronouncement like that if you want your prediction to be taken seriously.


REAL Green wrote:
You techno optimist are habituated to steady average growth and which recently has been a huge Ponzi Scheme.


:) Ponzi scheme. The favorite term of our resident undiagnosed schizophrenic, Starving Lion. Now that's how to win someone over. Just keep banging out the term "ponzi scheme" over and over again.

REAL Green wrote:
Deep down you are not comfortable.


What I'm least comfortable about isn't peak oil but rather global warming.

REAL Green wrote:
I agree they will help in a small way prolong BAU.


And so the walking-back begins ;)

REAL Green wrote:
in times like this degrowth policies may be called for because the economy may be in trouble and triage


So please let us know what one of these "degrowth" policies will be that's enacted by the powers that be. What I see is nothing but "the center must hold" even in inadvisable ways like Trump's vow to bring back coal. When and how and why would that suddenly flip over 180'?

The last dozen or so years has proven to me that BAU is NOT AS BRITTLE as doomers insisted that it was. I had been fully indoctrinated into thinking it was a house of cards. Now I know better. The best route forward for any rational individual is to assume that BAU will persist in some shape or form but to just try to stay out of debt, live within your means, and remain ambitious enough to max out your income rather than panicking, quitting your job, squandering your income potential, and disappearing into a bunker.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby KingM » Mon 20 Apr 2020, 17:43:10

I do feel ridiculous when I remember wondering 15 years ago if I was buying the last gas powered car I'd ever own. I thought by 2020, oil would be too expensive to use for driving automobiles. Yet here on 20 April, 2020, oil prices went negative because you could not give it away.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby REAL Green » Mon 20 Apr 2020, 18:12:56

REAL Green wrote: Yea if you are a 6 figure guy.

asg70 wrote: Envy...again. .


Hardly, I was once part of a family business that is now 1BIL plus. I probably have experienced more wealth than you and BTW, I am now a small permaculture farmer and if you were smart you would envy me.

asg70 wrote: BTW, I got myself out of debt BEFORE the bottom fell through on the credit crisis. I wasn't an idiot like all those who were suckered into those liar loans who then fell into foreclosure. Make yourself less vulnerable and you have less to worry about in a downturn. (And by "less vulnerable" I'm not talking about how to gather up and leach acorns.) .


Goodie for you. I hope all that debt free living will be able to feed you if SHTF. I don’t need to gather acorns. I have plenty of much tastier food.

REAL Green wrote: there is no break out yet with EV growth and there may never be.

asg70 wrote:You'll have to do more than just make a pronouncement like that if you want your prediction to be taken seriously.


Ah, what do you think you been doing lately, LOL. You have been making one prediction after another about EVs but I guess since you are a techno optimist 6 figure guy that is somehow different.

REAL Green wrote: You techno optimist are habituated to steady average growth and which recently has been a huge Ponzi Scheme.

asg70 wrote::) Ponzi scheme. The favorite term of our resident undiagnosed schizophrenic, Starving Lion. Now that's how to win someone over. Just keep banging out the term "ponzi scheme" over and over again.


It is what it is how else you want to explain excessive debt, ultra-low rates, and gobs of moral hazard mixed in. The asset markets in no way reflect reality considering real future earnings etc. You could write a book on Ponzi economics going on today and BTW about to pop.

REAL Green wrote: Deep down you are not comfortable.

asg70 wrote: :) What I'm least comfortable about isn't peak oil but rather global warming.


OK, we find some common ground. You have labeled me a hardcore peaker when that is not the case. Yet, don’t try to tell me PO is not relevant anymore when it is obvious peak oil dynamics are alive and well. Today is a great example with negative oil prices. POD does not have to be high/low prices or glut/shortages. POD is about oil complex distortions and destructive conditions. This is similar to climate change which is more than a warming world it is about climate destabilizing.

REAL Green wrote: I agree they will help in a small way prolong BAU.

asg70 wrote: And so the walking-back begins ;)


AH, man, you like putting words in people mouths. I don’t ever remember saying anything contrary to what I said above. I guess if I agree with something it is then a walk-back. LOL.

REAL Green wrote: in times like this degrowth policies may be called for because the economy may be in trouble and triage

asg70 wrote: So please let us know what one of these "degrowth" policies will be that's enacted by the powers that be. What I see is nothing but "the center must hold" even in inadvisable ways like Trump's vow to bring back coal. When and how and why would that suddenly flip over 180'?


What I am saying is a dose of reality is going to bring on policies of degrowth by the force of fate. An economy that drops a level or two will not have the resources to do what it was doing before. This will likely be a combination of stealth monetary and fiscal changes too. It will be federal and local. It will be a broad-based condition of decline being realized by economic abandonment and dysfunction causing adaptive behaviors. Some of these behaviors will be policy based and others will just self-organize.

asg70 wrote: The last dozen or so years has proven to me that BAU is NOT AS BRITTLE as doomers insisted that it was


Agreed and this is why I call it a decline process not collapse. I am not a collapsenik but I do acknowledge it could happen because of cascading events.

asg70 wrote: I had been fully indoctrinated into thinking it was a house of cards. Now I know better. The best route forward for any rational individual is to assume that BAU will persist in some shape or form but to just try to stay out of debt, live within your means, and remain ambitious enough to max out your income rather than panicking, quitting your job, squandering your income potential, and disappearing into a bunker.


It is a house of cards but a very complex one with complicated nodes so that is a poor comparison until it starts to fall then it will be a better comparison. There are forces that don’t allow your happy 6 figure advice. No panicking here and no squandering. I am just enjoying green prepping which means low carbon capture along with risk management prepping activity. I am thinking about building a small bunker but it is not high on the list at the moment. I would like to have a saferoom, root cellar, and cistern together under the shop I want to build.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 20 Apr 2020, 20:27:42

REAL Green wrote:Goodie for you. I hope all that debt free living will be able to feed you if SHTF. I don’t need to gather acorns. I have plenty of much tastier food.

OTOH, there are generations of preppers who have basically spent their lives living in isolation and prepping and fearing and not living.

At any given time, the odds of reliably predicting "the end is nigh" are so low, that it's not likely to be worth it -- unless you really enjoy THAT as a lifestyle more than a more normal middle class life.

But of course, the preppers are generally convinced that THEY know for sure that the end really IS nigh THIS time, so there's that. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby ralfy » Mon 20 Apr 2020, 21:20:29

KingM wrote:I do feel ridiculous when I remember wondering 15 years ago if I was buying the last gas powered car I'd ever own. I thought by 2020, oil would be too expensive to use for driving automobiles. Yet here on 20 April, 2020, oil prices went negative because you could not give it away.


That's the futures market. Oil cost, especially in terms of energy, is still high because oil location is still deep or requires more refining.

That's why cost kept rising steadily even as oil prices went up and down, with more reliance on unconventional production, as BP reported in 2010.

Finally, volatile oil prices eventually increases problems for oil companies, as they need higher prices to cover high costs. Otherwise, more of them eventually shut down, and unless others are willing to cover their liabilities, then that part of oil production may remain offline.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby ralfy » Mon 20 Apr 2020, 21:30:25

All capitalist economies require a steady increase in economic activity supported by a steady increase in costs to meet a steady increase in population that has a steady demand for goods and services produced by economic activity. That activity leads to more pollution.

What disrupts that are costs that go higher than what is expected (peak oil and limits to growth), demand that is higher than what is expected (a growing global middle class), the effects of pollution (environmental damage and global warming), financial speculation (leading to increased credit which distorts prices and masks energy and materials use), and more. Add to this crises that cannot be predicted, such as the effects of epidemics, pandemics, conflict, and so on, and brought about by resource shortages, increased economic activity, etc., and we see crises amplifying each other.

Many forum members are unable to see that, which is why they prefer to look at only oil price, or how businesses can always declare bankruptcy and owners can still get away with that, etc., to argue that at worse we are only looking at hiccups, and everything will get better in the long run.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 20 Apr 2020, 21:55:23

And again doomers fall back to limits to growth theory. Again, wake me when there are gas lines and they won't impact me or any other EV driver.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 20 Apr 2020, 22:01:23

REAL Green wrote:It is what it is how else you want to explain excessive debt, ultra-low rates, and gobs of moral hazard mixed in. The asset markets in no way reflect reality considering real future earnings etc. You could write a book on Ponzi economics going on today and BTW about to pop.


Gotta love how doomers now think they are experts in economic theory. If Peter Schiff hasn't been right after all these years then why should I listen to you?

REAL Green wrote:POD does not have to be high/low prices or glut/shortages.


Yep. Just like ETP, its purpose is to try to create panic out of inverse logic. Low oil price! DOOM! High oil price, DOOM (old school style). YAWN.

REAL Green wrote:It will be a broad-based condition of decline being realized by economic abandonment and dysfunction causing adaptive behaviors.


That's just a load of gibberish. If you can't define it then you have no justification to slap a peak oil banner on it.

REAL Green wrote:Agreed and this is why I call it a decline process not collapse.


So what was the dot com collapse? What was the great depression? Doomers think things only move in one direction--DOWN. That's where their predictions fail.

REAL Green wrote:I am thinking about building a small bunker but it is not high on the list at the moment. I would like to have a saferoom, root cellar, and cistern together under the shop I want to build.


If it walks like a doomer, talks like a doomer, it's a doomer. You're avoiding labels like liberals calling themselves "progressive". Just take ownership of it, man.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby Simon_R » Tue 21 Apr 2020, 02:31:03

Assuming EV's are taken up (only in the US)

average miles 13,000
average hp 50
hp in watts 50 * 900 = 45kw
assuming 30mph 13000 / 30 = 433 hours
Kw per american 45 * 433 = 19450 = 19.5 Mw
Mw per 75% Americans 19.5 * 150000000 = 2925000000 Mw = 2925000Tw

Assuming even distribution through 365 days per year

87 750 999 Tw / 365 = 8013 /tw

Assuming even Charging patterns per 24 hour day

8013 tw / 24 = 334 TWH extra needed

Please check my figures but ....

Thats a feck load of Gerbils in wheels

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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby REAL Green » Tue 21 Apr 2020, 04:06:49

REAL Green wrote: Goodie for you. I hope all that debt free living will be able to feed you if SHTF. I don’t need to gather acorns. I have plenty of much tastier food.

Outcast_Searcher wrote:[OTOH, there are generations of preppers who have basically spent their lives living in isolation and prepping and fearing and not living.


I agree to a point on some prepper like the kind National Geographic or Hollywood features. My REAL Green is about green prepping. This is combining the best of green strategies to lower one’s footprint while increasing resilience to shocks. What I do is also a way of life and a journey. The destination is not so important. When I say destination, it means in a prepper standpoint the SHTF time. This could be long or short in duration and degree. That is all many preppers prep for and that is a bit depressing. Mine is a journey to lower carbon living combined with increasing resiliency to shocks which has much more meaning.

I have a bunker mentality but not that much. It is one strategy of many not the strategy. Security is useful where I live in the middle of a rural area where a sheriff is an hour away. Food stores anyone should do. Water strategies are essential. Medical training and stores are important. I have guns and ammo that have a duel use for hunting. I believe in having some gold and cash incase the ATM goes down but it is also a small savings. I do not recommend much because it can be stolen. I am doing the homestead living with garden, orchard, and grapes. The wife is doing home economics of deep pantry and food preservation. We practice a prep routine. I am not a writer but I could have someone write a book on it because it actually has many aspects to it. I am also doing this for the greater family so around 15 people have a place to go to. They do not have to worry about the details because I have them covered. It is nice for them to have the insurance policy.

As for others I say evaluate your situation of people and place. You can REAL Green it. Realistically you can get greener and seek resilience and sustainability to shocks. You do not have to get as elaborate as I do. I am like a master. I am not bragging on myself. I say this humbly because I have the time, money and the passion for the skills. I respect those who don’t. REAL Green is about doing a generalized effort at many things but also specialize at what you are good at. Your local of people and place dictates the type of effort. I feel many should return to the land but cities and towns have REAL Green potential. Having a sail boat can be REAL Green. The point of what I am doing is combining the best of modern things and materials with the best of what worked back before fossil fuels and electricity. Most of all REAL Green is attitude of low carbon capture and increased resilience. It is about getting closer to nature and human community. It is just an add-on to your existing higher power like a browser. I am far from in isolation and fear. I am liberated in some respects and have nature all around me. BTW, my biggest help on this site was Ghung and Simon who are masters at homesteading and renewables.

Outcast_Searcher wrote:At any given time, the odds of reliably predicting "the end is nigh" are so low, that it's not likely to be worth it -- unless you really enjoy THAT as a lifestyle more than a more normal middle class life. :


The key to REAL Green is try not to get caught up in the prep thing and instead think about community and green. When you do that you can see that some basic prep is green and community oriented. Any lifestyle can do it. REAL Green is about conservation so it fits into any way of life. I am promoting a return to rural areas as my focus because that is what I do. Town living has its own type of REAL Green I am not an expert in. It means maybe craft work or specialty carpentry. Maybe a distillery with an eatery type thing. The sky is the limit but it should be greener and consider survival in a world of increasing risk.

Outcast_Searcher wrote:But of course, the preppers are generally convinced that THEY know for sure that the end really IS nigh THIS time, so there's that. :roll:


I am an optimistic pessimist who wishes I could just be totally optimistic but I don’t feel life has ever been that way. I am going back to when man was more local and realized his local community and place needed to be worked and protected. Globalism is useful to draw off of with income and things but it destroys the local because of enjoyable lifestyles. The comforts and the interest of plenty are hard to resist these ways almost always delocalize a local destroying the bond to nature and community at scale. I know because I dabbled in the wealthy life. I just found it shallow for me. Others think differently but I think the planet agrees with me.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby REAL Green » Tue 21 Apr 2020, 04:38:33

REAL Green wrote:It is what it is how else you want to explain excessive debt, ultra-low rates, and gobs of moral hazard mixed in. The asset markets in no way reflect reality considering real future earnings etc. You could write a book on Ponzi economics going on today and BTW about to pop.

asg70 wrote:[Gotta love how doomers now think they are experts in economic theory. If Peter Schiff hasn't been right after all these years then why should I listen to you?


ASG, I have been studying this daily now since 2005. I am not an expert but I have deep generalized understanding of multiple subjects related to green prepping which includes knowing the health of the planet and the human system. I do have a point of view of decline but I respect and admire some growth. I am bought into some modern. I have more renewables than most here. I would like to have an EV auto and farm tractor. Actually, I don’t listen to Schiff. He is a broken record but people that talk about the bad of the financial system I sift through. This is not a healthy situation or this lame pandemic would not of turned the financial world upside down. Things are not going to normalize IMO but I hope good can come of it. Down periods clean things up if they do not destroy too much. We are in a frog boil of deterioration of free markets but also good socialism.

REAL Green wrote:POD does not have to be high/low prices or glut/shortages.

asg70 wrote:[Yep. Just like ETP, its purpose is to try to create panic out of inverse logic. Low oil price! DOOM! High oil price, DOOM (old school style). YAWN. .


Nope, anything that disrupts or disturbs is bad for investing unless you are a trader working the swings. High or low oil is bad in my book. You sound like Trump when he talks about a cold winter and global warming. It is not about hot or cold being the norm it is about the disruption from stable that is the key variable that is dangerous.

REAL Green wrote: It will be a broad-based condition of decline being realized by economic abandonment and dysfunction causing adaptive behaviors.

asg70 wrote:That's just a load of gibberish. If you can't define it then you have no justification to slap a peak oil banner on it.


LOL, that is just systemness talk of what happens when chaos enters the system causing turbulence. This is just physics meeting human ecology. Nothing special really but an effective look at what happens when shocks hit and a system drops a level or two from thresholds being breached. Lots of detail can be gleaned from this point of view. It is an abstract way of viewing things but useful to me because it is scientific respecting balance and objectivity. I am not an expert in systems science but it is one of my enjoyments.


REAL Green wrote: Agreed and this is why I call it a decline process not collapse.

asg70 wrote:So what was the dot com collapse? What was the great depression? Doomers think things only move in one direction--DOWN. That's where their predictions fail. .


Where did I say that? I am a doomer lite with realism for cycles. My view has been an undulating plateau of growth and decline. Amazing tech and productivity facing planetary and human decline which has been manifested in poor investments that do not yield the macro and micro returns advertised. The public and natural domain is being corrupted by private profiteering and so forth. Anyone with a brain knows a one-way prediction in continuum is not a good bet.

REAL Green wrote: I am thinking about building a small bunker but it is not high on the list at the moment. I would like to have a saferoom, root cellar, and cistern together under the shop I want to build.

asg70 wrote:If it walks like a doomer, talks like a doomer, it's a doomer. You're avoiding labels like liberals calling themselves "progressive". Just take ownership of it, man.


AH, where did I not take ownership? I am a doomer “lite” and a green prepper. Does that satisfy you forum bouncer? I must really threaten you because you have been stalking me since I got over here but I enjoy it. I enjoy intelligent criticism. Just singing like a bird does not achieve much growth so keep attacking me and I keep learning about myself. Most of the discussion we have had are positions not right or wrong to be proved.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 21 Apr 2020, 04:52:08

KingM wrote:I do feel ridiculous when I remember wondering 15 years ago if I was buying the last gas powered car I'd ever own. I thought by 2020, oil would be too expensive to use for driving automobiles. Yet here on 20 April, 2020, oil prices went negative because you could not give it away.


King,

You are not ridiculous, the world financial system is ridiculous.

You can’t predict well what mad men will do, that’s why we call them mad.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 21 Apr 2020, 05:03:16

Real Green,

I think you make a great case that prepping does not have to be a hair shirt but that it can be a pleasure able and sustainable life style.

My story is different in that I was participating more in the main stream economy with a “traditional” job. I found ways to prep that were different from yours but they fit my lifestyle, or the lifestyle I was in. Over years I’ve been able to pry myself out of that rat race and am now living peacefully the retired life in our “bug out boat”.

The point being there is more than one path forward in living the green life and in living a life that sustains oneself. Sure some preppers, the ones shown on TV, are sad cases. The reason they show those folks is so that we can mock them and feel superior.
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