Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Should this site be shut down?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby REAL Green » Sat 18 Apr 2020, 05:05:14

asg70 wrote:
REAL Green wrote:This glut is mainly an economic condition based upon a demand shock.


The glut is an economic condition based upon coronavirus. And before that there was still ample supply thanks to technical innovation in fracking. But hey, you want to live in a reality distortion field so nothing I say will change that.

Image


AH, you forgot with the financial help of repressed rates and the massive liquidity assistance of the central bank asset bubble. Ample supply that is from malinvestment does not mean high value supply of oil that can power society longer term hence peak oil dynamics. Fracking is a retirement party and renewables are an additive that show stalling penetration at around 50% primary power because of the huge costs to deal with on-demand needs and intermittency. OH, and all that techno optimistic noise about cost and tech ahead to deal with renewables downside is just noise until it is real and applied. So, who is in the reality distortion field?
REAL Green
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 353
Joined: Thu 09 Apr 2020, 04:29:28
Location: MO Ozarks

Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 18 Apr 2020, 15:10:10

REAL Green wrote:Ample supply that is from malinvestment


Fracking has been going on for over a decade. If it can't pay for itself, maybe it could be strung along for a while on a wing and a prayer, but it wouldn't have been going on this long. I just don't buy it. Smart money doesn't throw itself down an endless hole for this long.

ralfy wrote:Oil prices can go down if there is financial instability.


The history of oil traditionally has been the axiom:

The solution to high oil prices is more high oil prices and the reverse--the solution to low oil prices is more low oil prices. There's nothing I've seen in the last dozen or so years to indicate that this invisible hand of supply and demand isn't still ultimately balancing things out. The reason The Oil Drum lost credibility, for instance, is it completely shrugged off fracking. Fracking is more expensive but not AS expensive as peakers keep insisting it is. That was true during The Oil Drum's time and it's true now.

What we have now is not in any way shape or form "peak oil doom". Any attempt to say otherwise is to misattribute cause and effect.

Image

If academics at The Oil Drum decided to pack it in and ASPO decided to pack it in at some point you have to concede that peak oil doom really hasn't happened yet and we are just going to muddle forward with BAU continuing apace. That does not equate to some dumb term like "peak oil dynamic" anymore than any prior time in the oil landscape should be attributed to "peak oil dynamic", like the "drowning in oil" 90s. Peak oil is meant to be a genuine inflection point that everyone would feel, not something so arcane that only a handful of doomer remnant can claim but nobody else (including once high profile peakers) believes.

Image

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
asg70
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3871
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 13:17:28

Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby ralfy » Sat 18 Apr 2020, 22:01:13

There is enough supply only because the global economy weakened considerably.

Back in 2005, the IEA and others believed that oil demand would reach around 115 Mbd by 2015, and that oil companies would easily meet that because there is no peak oil problem only above-ground ones. Thus, the concern was about trying to meet increasing oil demand from a strong global economy.

In 2010, the IEA acknowledged after doing a global survey in 2008 that conventional production could barely go up, which is why according to BP unconventional production was used to meet the lack of conventional production.

Five years after 2015, world oil demand is around 100 Mbd, nowhere close to what was predicted in 2005 because the world economy did not become strong. Instead, it experienced weak economic growth after the 2008 crash. Meanwhile, oil companies had to use shale and other sources just to meet that 100 Mbd demand. There's also a possibility that the current crisis will cause that demand to decrease.

It's like saying peak oil isn't something to be concerned about because the problems that would have been caused by that were caused by something else.

As I said earlier, one is better off using the ignore function.
User avatar
ralfy
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5071
Joined: Sat 28 Mar 2009, 10:36:38
Location: The Wasteland

Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby Simon_R » Sun 19 Apr 2020, 06:35:15

This site should definitely not be shutdown

When it comes to peak oil, we have already reach Peak Oil from Conventional Reservoirs (See Rockman, I remembered), the issue is that other type of chemicals/reservoirs are now in play.

As Peak Oil is not a theory, but a point on a graph, we are only now arguing, that peak oil is reached when a particular set of events (doom or not) come to pass, as this is subjective, it can keep us arguing for ages yet.

This site provides tons of useful information, and insights.

All I would change is that people have to sign in, to post on the front page, its seriously chaotic there
Simon_R
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 219
Joined: Thu 16 May 2013, 08:28:06

Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 19 Apr 2020, 09:38:34

ralfy wrote:There is enough supply only because the global economy weakened considerably.


Nope. There was ample supply before coronavirus.

ralfy wrote:world oil demand is around 100 Mbd


Greater efficiency and nascent EV adoption is part of the reason why. You can't just assume a 1:1 correspondence between oil consumption and global economic output.

ralfy wrote:the problems that would have been caused by that were caused by something else.


That's exactly what happened, i.e. the credit crisis.

The problem with peakers is they grossly oversimplify the way the world works. Oil is not the only thing that drives or crashes the world economy.

Not learning this lesson in 2008 is exactly why the movement lost credibility and people walked away. And yet all these years later that lesson still hasn't been learned.

Simon_R wrote:As Peak Oil is not a theory, but a point on a graph, we are only now arguing, that peak oil is reached when a particular set of events (doom or not) come to pass, as this is subjective


But this shift is the exact reason why participation here is all but nonexistent. Unless peak oil corresponds with doom then nobody's going to care (nor should they). And so the only thing left is for the peaker faithful to strain and wrap themselves into a pretzel to connect any and all negative events back to the peak oil "brand" so to speak, yet the connection is so tenuous that it doesn't really convince anyone other than the already-converted.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
asg70
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3871
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 13:17:28

Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 19 Apr 2020, 09:50:40

I’ve always said we’ll never experience PO because demand destruction would mask it.
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 6026
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby Simon_R » Sun 19 Apr 2020, 11:03:56

Hi Asg

you said

But this shift is the exact reason why participation here is all but nonexistent. Unless peak oil corresponds with doom then nobody's going to care (nor should they). And so the only thing left is for the peaker faithful to strain and wrap themselves into a pretzel to connect any and all negative events back to the peak oil "brand" so to speak, yet the connection is so tenuous that it doesn't really convince anyone other than the already-converted.


Since my time here, it seems that we have all forgotten the timeline of the curve, we are (as far as I can see) on the bumpy plateau, the data seems to reflect this.
The next is the bumpy descent, now all that is to be talked about (to me) is the speed and nature of the descent.

Simon
Simon_R
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 219
Joined: Thu 16 May 2013, 08:28:06

Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 19 Apr 2020, 11:19:26

Simon_R wrote:Since my time here, it seems that we have all forgotten the timeline of the curve, we are (as far as I can see) on the bumpy plateau, the data seems to reflect this.
The next is the bumpy descent, now all that is to be talked about (to me) is the speed and nature of the descent.


And what I see time and again is an attempt to wrap any and all current events with vague labels (like bumpy plateau) in order to keep the causative relationship between world events and peak oil. Again, the world is more complicated than that. The world does not spin solely based on the amount of conventional crude being pumped in the ground. Is it a dominant factor? Yes. Is it the ONLY factor? No. This was the lesson I and many others learned in 2008 and other did not.

Consider that there have been recessions, wars, etc... wholly independent of oil charts. The dot com bubble was one, for instance. And yet some peakers have adopted such a tunnel-vision 1:1 mentality that they use oil exactly the same way the church lady evokes satan, as a convenient symbol in order to explain the world's ills. It provides comfort in its simplicity. It functions like religion. This analogy seems to be lost on those who are so far down that rabbit hole.

If someone wants to be deluded like that, that's their business. However, it doesn't really speak well beyond the immediate echo chamber. There WAS a time when the mainstream DID take peak oil seriously. People like the late Matt Simmons were frequent guests on cable news. I don't really see a vector for peak oil to reenter the public conversation as long as people continue to try to make weak connections between current events and peak oil (ETP being the most flagrant case). All this does is further degrade what little credibility peak oil has left.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
asg70
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3871
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 13:17:28

Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby Simon_R » Sun 19 Apr 2020, 13:47:55

Hi Ag

to a certain extent I agree with you, if you are a doomer you see everything as a sign of doom, if you are a techno optimist, you will see everything as a sign of 'green shoots'

Essentially it seems as though what you are saying is that since people view events through a lens of their own convictions, this site should be shutdown, doesnt this then, apply to all news/events sites ?

Thanks

Simon
Simon_R
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 219
Joined: Thu 16 May 2013, 08:28:06

Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 19 Apr 2020, 16:01:32

Plant - Howdy. The funny thing for me personally being trapped in a wheelchair and recliner social isolation isn't new...been doing it for a few years now. LOL. The only thing I miss is my grocery store runs...and following good looking women around. Now I'm stuck with curbside grocery pickup.

If it weren't for Internet porn I don't know what I would do. Except, of course, correcting the ignorants that post here. LOL.

And as I said before: the current collapse of oil prices is the most powerful example of the POD that no one had predicted. Thus the definition of "dynamic".
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 11263
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 19 Apr 2020, 18:15:43

Simon_R wrote:it seems as though what you are saying is that since people view events through a lens of their own convictions, this site should be shutdown, doesnt this then, apply to all news/events sites ?


This site should be shut down because the only peak oil discussion going on is a META debate about whether or not peak oil is still a "thing"--like this very thread. Outside in the real world peak oil is irrelevant. Only a few holdouts like Gail are still flying that flag. Everyone else is either dead (like Matt Simmons) or moved onto other things. Even Kunstler and Greer don't really weigh in on the actual topic anymore. The party is basically over and there are just a few who haven't left the club yet still stirring their drinks in the corner of the room.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
asg70
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3871
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 13:17:28

Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby REAL Green » Sun 19 Apr 2020, 18:27:28

asg70 wrote: Outside in the real world peak oil is irrelevant.


LOL, like you know what the real world is. I am waiting on a comment out of you that shows you know what you think you know. Peak oil does not have to be relevant to people like you to be a force. It is smoldering and ready to turn into a fire at the right time. The peak oil dynamics that offends you so much is very much at work now with the virus and its consequences of a demand shock. People like you that try so hard to discredit peak oil and come to a peak oil site daily pretty much are telling on themselves that they are worried about bad things ahead. Peak oil is part of a smorgasbord of disruptive systematic conditions that are converging and amplifying and unconsciously that is why you are here.
REAL Green
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 353
Joined: Thu 09 Apr 2020, 04:29:28
Location: MO Ozarks

Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 19 Apr 2020, 19:21:52

ROCKMAN wrote:Plant - Howdy. The funny thing for me personally being trapped in a wheelchair and recliner social isolation isn't new...been doing it for a few years now. LOL. The only thing I miss is my grocery store runs...and following good looking women around. Now I'm stuck with curbside grocery pickup.


There are lots of good looking women on the internet.....

ROCKMAN wrote:If it weren't for Internet porn I don't know what I would do.


BINGO! You do know about the good looking women on the internet. Allow me to make a suggestion to you---kindgirls dot com. If its not on your list already then Check it out.

ROCKMAN wrote:And as I said before: the current collapse of oil prices is the most powerful example of the POD that no one had predicted. Thus the definition of "dynamic".


I agree with you 100%.

I give you full credit for bringing the concept of the peak oil dynamic to this site, and personally I've found your ideas of POD to be central to understanding why peak oil didn't happen in the early 2000s when many other people thought it would.

Have a great day!
The lack of speed has to go faster---Joe Biden
I will defeat Joe Biden---Joe Biden
-----------------------------------------------------------
Keep running between the raindrops.
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 23498
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby Shaved Monkey » Sun 19 Apr 2020, 20:50:25

Have some members on this site gone from being Preppers waiting for the inevitable collapse and avoiding the Zombies to cheering the Zombies on as they roam the streets in the vain hope they can stop or slow down collapse ?
Ready to turn Zombies into WWOOFers
User avatar
Shaved Monkey
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2297
Joined: Wed 30 Mar 2011, 00:43:28

Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 19 Apr 2020, 21:49:27

REAL Green wrote:Peak oil does not have to be relevant to people like you to be a force. It is smoldering and ready to turn into a fire at the right time.


Hope springs eternal.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
asg70
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3871
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 13:17:28

Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 19 Apr 2020, 22:10:15

Simon_R wrote:This site should definitely not be shutdown

When it comes to peak oil, we have already reach Peak Oil from Conventional Reservoirs (See Rockman, I remembered), the issue is that other type of chemicals/reservoirs are now in play.

As Peak Oil is not a theory, but a point on a graph, we are only now arguing, that peak oil is reached when a particular set of events (doom or not) come to pass, as this is subjective, it can keep us arguing for ages yet.

This site provides tons of useful information, and insights.

All I would change is that people have to sign in, to post on the front page, its seriously chaotic there

Plus, EV's very likely will extend the date of oil becoming "scarce" globally by decades if not many decades. Not by increasing supply of course, this time, but by greatly reducing demand. Kind of like conservation on steroids, re global transport.

The endless peak doomer crowd likes to pretend that technological improvements can't make much different, even though they do, over and over again, decade after decade.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 8330
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 19 Apr 2020, 22:16:38

Shaved Monkey wrote:Have some members on this site gone from being Preppers waiting for the inevitable collapse and avoiding the Zombies to cheering the Zombies on as they roam the streets in the vain hope they can stop or slow down collapse ?

So zombies as a means of human population control? Hmmmm, given how "well" various attempts at having critters control other critters has gone various times (Kudzu comes to mind), somehow I'm not so sure that's a plan I'd want to bet on.

Surely if the human race can do so much in so little time with efforts like AlphaZero, AlphaGo, AlphaStar, Watson, smart phones, the internet, etc., surely we SHOULD be able to work out a way to flatten the global population with planning and policy instead of, say, pandemics, famine, pollution, and zombies.

But I know. That's just the cornie aspect of my personality talking. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 8330
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby Simon_R » Mon 20 Apr 2020, 02:19:35

Hi Outcast

That's kinda where I am.

The doom is still there, but we manage to keep kicking the can down the road with technology, we have to hope that we don't trip, because PO is still nipping at our heels.

I don't think we will have a huge collapse, but my view is PO keeps nipping and each time, lifestyles diminish a bit, nationalism rises a bit, balkanisation (our british friends).

I read somewhere that most kids have aspirations now, to own a really nice smartphone, owning a house is seen as to unrealistic, sad, but an example post 2008 of reduced aspirations, which also, paradoxically kicks the can down the road that little bit more

Thanks

Simon
Simon_R
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 219
Joined: Thu 16 May 2013, 08:28:06

Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby sparky » Mon 20 Apr 2020, 05:29:40

.
I still believe that extraction of a finite resource produce a peak ,
or else the Easter Bunny and Santa Claus are real
would this led to Armageddon , not necessarily , that's doomer talk , maybe but maybe not
the whole world could turn veggan and ban the wheel
User avatar
sparky
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3490
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Sydney , OZ

Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby REAL Green » Mon 20 Apr 2020, 05:39:50

Outcast_Searcher wrote: Plus, EV's very likely will extend the date of oil becoming "scarce" globally by decades if not many decades. Not by increasing supply of course, this time, but by greatly reducing demand. Kind of like conservation on steroids, re global transport.

The endless peak doomer crowd likes to pretend that technological improvements can't make much different, even though they do, over and over again, decade after decade.



EV's will save us crowd. LOL. Nothing at this point indicates EVs will scale to do that. They currently are not showing a good growth rate to achieve a level that will reduce fossil fuels much. I see them as a niche and an additive. I hope EV’s and renewables scale quicker but hope is not reality. Electric is more efficient propulsion system so EV's should be pursued that is clear for many applications. Amazon delivery trucks are a good example of this. The economy is now toast for a few years or worse making EV's less likely to be purchased. Fossil fuels are cheap maybe not forever but a few years which will further put EV's on the back burner.

Conservation on steroids is not EVs. EVs are dirty too and only marginally greener. They could be a lot greener if someone or a region has the pannels or turbines set up to charge them. Currently much of the global grid is still significantly fossil fuel supported. Conservation on steroids is not driving. So, if we want to do good conservation then it is eliminating much of the discretionary driving an or reorganizing one's life to drive less by remaining local. EV guys many times are fake green type who think becuase they bought a fancy fun toy they are also green. Many fake greens drive more becuase they think they drive green. This green EV's stuff does not add up. That said I would like to have one and a small farm tractor with the pannels to charge them. I am pro EV and renewables but realistic on what they can do and how far they can go. Lets stay real in such a dangerous time.
REAL Green
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 353
Joined: Thu 09 Apr 2020, 04:29:28
Location: MO Ozarks

PreviousNext

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 22 guests