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Should this site be shut down?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 09 Apr 2020, 15:14:42

Plant - Exactly. When I first saw the title of the thread thought it was a silly joke. No one ever needs to shutdown any site: if there's no interest then the sites dies a natural death. If there's continued interest it lives on.

It still very funny to me. This thread is just one more justification for the site: the site is necessary to discuss whether it should be shut down or not. Thanks to whoever started this thread. LMFAO!!!
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby jedrider » Thu 09 Apr 2020, 17:01:20

I miss Montequest. We were suppose to be sucked into the big black hole of fractional banking.

Now it is coronavirus. There will always be something to get us that we can talk about.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby Carnot » Thu 16 Apr 2020, 10:59:56

To shut this site down would be a shame. I must confess that certain posters seem to be more interested in causing offence than actually debating. For that reason I backed away as I do not wish to be involved in puerile attacks on others.

Peak oil has been ridiculed for years and some of the claims of imminent doom might have been overplayed. Sadly TOD folded but the intentions of those who posted on TOD were on the whole good. Peak oilers ( and I am one of them ) will have their day, but I would not be foolish to predict when, but a peak in the supply of crude oil will happen. When it does then the world should get ready.

Maybe those of you who care might consider this publication

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... ation.html

Moving forward the world is going to need a whole lot of petrochemicals. Much of those petrochemicals will come from oil, currently about 10% of oil production and growing rapidly.

Shale is going bust; it never has been profitable and never will be. There is a little matter of EROI to consider. Actually I prefer EROEI but in effect the solution is the same. The input costs of shale oil and gas simply make it uneconomic irrespective of the price of oil; it is being subsidised by conventional oil and gas and idiots who believed in all the claptrap on production lasting decades. Fools and their money are soon parted.

I simply despair at the level of ineptitude at of senior executives across the world who have the inability to grasp the facts.

Don't let this site die but overhaul it and invigorate the debate.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby GoghGoner » Thu 16 Apr 2020, 11:54:12

Carnot wrote:To shut this site down would be a shame. I must confess that certain posters seem to be more interested in causing offence than actually debating. For that reason I backed away as I do not wish to be involved in puerile attacks on others.


Yes. I don't understand why somebody wants to come here and attack folks everyday but there are those that are obviously drawn to it.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 16 Apr 2020, 14:02:40

Carnot wrote:Moving forward the world is going to need a whole lot of petrochemicals. Much of those petrochemicals will come from oil, currently about 10% of oil production and growing rapidly.

This much is clear. Barring new technology we can't imagine that somehow makes all petrochemicals globally obsolete, plenty of oil will be required over time -- and the oil required for that segment will grow a LOT over time. (Even if the global population flattens, the middle class lifestyle demands will grow that need immensely).

To me, that's just another reason to pursue vehicle electrification as rapidly as it's economically feasible. Why burn a valuable resource that rapidly growing numbers of people will consider vital for things like medical plastics, etc. for MANY decades to come? (Oh, and screw up the environment more than efficient EV's over a vehicle's lifecycle, as well).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby evilgenius » Thu 16 Apr 2020, 19:23:09

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Carnot wrote:Moving forward the world is going to need a whole lot of petrochemicals. Much of those petrochemicals will come from oil, currently about 10% of oil production and growing rapidly.

This much is clear. Barring new technology we can't imagine that somehow makes all petrochemicals globally obsolete, plenty of oil will be required over time -- and the oil required for that segment will grow a LOT over time. (Even if the global population flattens, the middle class lifestyle demands will grow that need immensely).

To me, that's just another reason to pursue vehicle electrification as rapidly as it's economically feasible. Why burn a valuable resource that rapidly growing numbers of people will consider vital for things like medical plastics, etc. for MANY decades to come? (Oh, and screw up the environment more than efficient EV's over a vehicle's lifecycle, as well).

Yes, if we can get the numbers to even get within squealing distance, we should finance the electric future. Even if they fade below that line over the short-term, we shouldn't give up on them. Such should be the resiliency of having seen the future, before there wasn't any money left to finance it.

I'm so glad that Trump is finally coming true on his stimulus package. The people needed the money a while ago. This is good, though. So, start thinking about next month, please. That one will probably have to be bigger. Er...bigly.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby C8 » Fri 17 Apr 2020, 01:51:55

This site will shut down Saturday at midnight when I pull the cord out of the outlet.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 17 Apr 2020, 08:49:50

ROCKMAN wrote:if there's no interest then the sites dies a natural death.


For all intents and purposes (coronavirus boost excepted) there IS no interest, but with a site hanging on a domain like this, despite the fact the peak oil movement is all but defunct, you're gonna have a few holdouts. I would think if Matt had kept Life After the Oil Crash going there would probably also still be a few holdouts over there yammering away. He pulled the plug because he himself had tapped out of the doomer scene. So it's really up to the ownership of this site in the end to throw in the towel. But objectively speaking this site is a shadow of its former self. You only have to read through the archives to be reminded of that.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby REAL Green » Fri 17 Apr 2020, 09:26:35

asg70 wrote:
ROCKMAN wrote:if there's no interest then the sites dies a natural death.


For all intents and purposes (coronavirus boost excepted) there IS no interest, but with a site hanging on a domain like this, despite the fact the peak oil movement is all but defunct, you're gonna have a few holdouts. I would think if Matt had kept Life After the Oil Crash going there would probably also still be a few holdouts over there yammering away. He pulled the plug because he himself had tapped out of the doomer scene. So it's really up to the ownership of this site in the end to throw in the towel. But objectively speaking this site is a shadow of its former self. You only have to read through the archives to be reminded of that.



Who cares about a “movement” being defunct? Peak oil is far from dead. Reality is not defunct is it? PO ugly head will raise over the next years as the oil complex is destabilized along with everything else. It will not be the center of the decline but it will be a significant reason. I am not talking about Hubert PO. I am talking about Rockman’s peak oil dynamics. Movements tend to remind me of group think and how shallow that is. What seems to be going defunct is ASG70 cult think of techno optimism and calling into question anything related to decline. You use the world doomer and so forth in derision but now you face it and squirm. You try to put a happy face on current events and say all will be well while you show contempt for others opinion indicating worry. You need to being worried being a 6-figure guy. I know wealth and the wealthy and how cocky they are until the money is gone then they are like a dog with his tail between his legs around the alpha male. The thing about all these forums is they have gone through a metamorphose. The way people interact has changed but the issues really haven’t that much.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 17 Apr 2020, 11:08:08

REAL Green wrote:Who cares about a “movement” being defunct?


You do, obviously.

REAL Green wrote:Peak oil is far from dead.


And denial ain't just a river in Egypt.

REAL Green wrote:PO ugly head will raise over the next years


Sigh... PO predictions... Forever pointing in the future. Always just over the next horizon. Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow.

REAL Green wrote:I am not talking about Hubert PO. I am talking about Rockman’s peak oil dynamics.


In other words, drawing questionable correlation = causation lines? Weak...sauce...

REAL Green wrote:techno optimism and calling into question anything related to decline.


Ah, and now the strawman. I see the world's problems for what they are, and the preeminent thread is global warming and related ecological collapse. In terms of geological timeframes, that problem is very swift, but in relation to human lifetimes, fairly slow and not amenable to creating that sort of fight-or-flight panic response that doomers crave.

Will there be something akin to an oil crash eventually? Yes, but it is far enough downstream that we will probably already be well on our way to transitioning off of oil. The growing threat of shortages will be the catalyst to speed up that transition in a way that current oil prices can't provide.

The peak oil movement sprang up during a time period when we really had no viable plan B at all. This was during the Who Killed the Electric Car era where conspiracies about the system being stacked against electric were interwoven with the narrative. That is NOT the world we live in anymore. Even though EVs remain a small niche, they are readily available and at a reasonable price-point. Their number can and will scale to meet demand. Battery technology is currently at a "good enough" stage and will only improve and cheapen over the next decade.

During this same timeframe, "brown tech" has also improved as far as enhanced oil recovery from fracking. So we have this seemingly contradictory parallel progress in both green and brown tech. The end result is we have a longer buffer of fossil fuels AND a solid foundation being laid for electrification.

And I haven't even started talking about what has happened over the last decade or so with solar getting cheaper and cheaper, so it's not like all of our electricity is going to need to be powered by natural gas or coal.

The peak oil holdouts such as yourself cling to old outdated talking points almost Rip Van Winkle style or you just pivot over to trying to slap a peak oil label on things that have nothing to DO with peak oil just to keep the brand alive.

REAL Green wrote:You try to put a happy face on current events and say all will be well while you show contempt for others opinion indicating worry.


I show contempt because I've been exposed to too many chicken little predictions. I mean, fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice shame on me.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 17 Apr 2020, 12:16:09

asg - You seem to have been sucked into the same trap built by so many ignorant of what PO represents. Above all predicting the timing of reaching global PO is a pointless distraction. Also I suspect you are very familiar with the "POD" concept the Rockman coined some time ago. In fact the current demand destruction caused by Covid 19 is a great example of the POD. Granted an extreme event the Rockman (nor anyone else) predicted a year ago. What ever the UNPREDICTABLE date of global PO might have been it obviously has been pushed further into the future. Likewise so has the "green revolution": I doubt many rooftop solar panels will be going up very soon. Or folks unable to pay their rent (or folks who lost a large portion of their wealth) will be running out to buy electric cars. Especially with motor fuel prices tanking.

It's all part of the POD: Peak Oil Dynamic. Some folks need to look up the definition of "dynamic". It's really quit simple.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby REAL Green » Fri 17 Apr 2020, 12:34:54

Asg, who knows on an oil crash that is beyond you or I. My point is oil issues with other issues may combine to cause a decline or crash over time. The growing threat of shortages can only do so much. Transition will need an economic foundation and shortages will erode that. So saying one leads to the other is just a maybe not something assured.

There is no evidence EV numbers will scale. They are just a niche now and likely a niche to come for wealthy like yourself. I would like to have an EV eventually but I can’t justify it currently. Battery technology is improving but not enough to make that leap of “transition”. Resources needed for batteries will always be an issue and it is unclear if the economy will be there to drive economies of scale. You are just being wishful.

Solar got cheaper but that cost reductions are fading as the other costs of mitigating intermittency like storage and grid upgrades greatly steepen the cost over a certain point of renewable integration in the grid. We also must consider the economy in these calculations. Will the value chains be there to support lower cost renewables? BTW, I have 3600-watt system with batteries and inverter. It is great for my green prepping but I am not that impressed in regards to cost benefit in an objective analysis with the green part taken out. The grid is cheaper than being green.

Peak oil is a small part of my outlook so spare me your PO label drama. You anti-PO people like to throw that label around like you know somebody.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 17 Apr 2020, 14:28:08

ROCKMAN wrote:I suspect you are very familiar with the "POD" concept the Rockman coined some time ago.


Yes, plus your odd Gollum-like penchant of referring to yourself in the 3rd person.

ROCKMAN wrote:It's all part of the POD: Peak Oil Dynamic.


Slapping the word "dynamic" on peak oil doesn't mean you can proceed to connect the term to anything and everything. That's your mental misfire, not mine.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 17 Apr 2020, 14:43:39

asg70 wrote:
You try to put a happy face on current events and say all will be well while you show contempt for others opinion indicating worry.


I show contempt because I've been exposed to too many chicken little predictions. I mean, fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice shame on me.

And given the track record of the fast crash doomers / peakers overall for decades, fool me THOUSANDS of times would get rather silly, indeed. :idea:
Last edited by Tanada on Fri 17 Apr 2020, 20:15:54, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: fixed broken quote
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby REAL Green » Fri 17 Apr 2020, 15:56:09

asg70 wrote:
ROCKMAN wrote:I suspect you are very familiar with the "POD" concept the Rockman coined some time ago.


Yes, plus your odd Gollum-like penchant of referring to yourself in the 3rd person.

ROCKMAN wrote:It's all part of the POD: Peak Oil Dynamic.


Slapping the word "dynamic" on peak oil doesn't mean you can proceed to connect the term to anything and everything. That's your mental misfire, not mine.


Rockman's POD is an excellent term that covers all those negative issues the modern world has with increasingly expensive and scare high quality oil. For me it took the geologic term and gave it economic feet. Rockman has made many comments over the years that helped explain oil from an insider’s experience. He has been a great contributor to this site. The mental misfire is elsewhere.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 17 Apr 2020, 16:57:24

REAL Green wrote:Rockman's POD is an excellent term that covers all those negative issues the modern world has with increasingly expensive and scare[sic] high quality oil.


Um, we're in a glut right now. So even according to that logic it makes no sense.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 17 Apr 2020, 17:26:52

I completely agree with REALgreen on this one.

Rockman is one the best longterm contributors to this site, and his Peak Oil Dynamic (POD) idea is a really useful way to think about the interplay of oil prices and the ever receding peak oil.

In fact----HELLO there Rockman. Good to see you back posting at this site, such as it is.

I hope things are going great for you down in Houston.

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THREE CHEERS FOR ROCKMAN!!!!! WELCOME BACK!!!!

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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby REAL Green » Fri 17 Apr 2020, 18:19:18

asg70 wrote:
REAL Green wrote:Rockman's POD is an excellent term that covers all those negative issues the modern world has with increasingly expensive and scare[sic] high quality oil.


Um, we're in a glut right now. So even according to that logic it makes no sense.



This glut is mainly an economic condition based upon a demand shock. The physics of the oil is still depleting and more expensive to produce every year. The damage that this demand driven glut is going to do to future capacity potential is a future risk. This is an example of a dynamic situation of multiple forces affecting the global oil resource. I think you are digging a psychological hole because you are running out of imaginary enemies in your mind.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 17 Apr 2020, 19:25:48

REAL Green wrote:This glut is mainly an economic condition based upon a demand shock.


The glut is an economic condition based upon coronavirus. And before that there was still ample supply thanks to technical innovation in fracking. But hey, you want to live in a reality distortion field so nothing I say will change that.

Image

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby ralfy » Sat 18 Apr 2020, 01:52:49

This is the reason why forum members should use the ignore function: to ignore those who, after spending so much time in a peak oil forum, still don't understand the issue.

Oil prices can go down if there is financial instability. A glut can take place if demand goes down due to the same instability. None of these shows that production cost is on a downward trend or that diminishing returns, where increasing amounts of funds are needed to extract less new oil each time, are reversed.
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