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Should this site be shut down?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby mousepad » Wed 01 Apr 2020, 15:18:24

asg70 wrote:That's the nature of cultish thinking. Your mind gets rewired to the point where you're completely closed off from dissenting opinions.


There's more than 1 way of explaining the world. (If you ever took philosophy classes you will know that).
The current dominant way is the scientific way, which apparently you follow. Why are you so sure it's the right way? Looks a lot like cultish thinking to me, don't it?
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 01 Apr 2020, 15:20:10

mousepad wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:Yet, I find myself STILL being heavily influenced by the bottle


What's wrong with that? If you like one bottle design more than the other, why not choose it?
That's why there's more than one option available. Because the world is not one size fits all. Even though the hyper efficient globalization crowds would love it. One world factory producing one type of shoe for the whole world at top efficiency. A paradise of equal.

problem being so ingrained, it might be impossible to fix it.

it's not a problem. So don't need fixing.
Each time somebody DOESN'T think according to established pattern there's the potential for innovation.

"We don't like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out." - Decca Recording Company on declining to sign the Beatles, 1962

"This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us." - Western Union internal memo, 1876

"Rail travel at high speed is not possible because passengers, unable to breathe, would die of asphyxia." - Dr. Dionysius Lardner, 1830

"X-rays will prove to be a hoax." - Lord Kelvin, President of the Royal Society, 1883

"The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty—a fad." - -The president of the Michigan Savings Bank advising Henry Ford's lawyer not to invest in the Ford Motor Co., 1903

There's a big difference between innovative thinking and denying reality.

Just because smart people find it hard to predict the future, for example, does NOT mean that science denial doesn't matter. Or that Trump worship and mindlessly yelling "fake news" without even investigating the data doesn't matter.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 01 Apr 2020, 15:27:44

mousepad wrote:
asg70 wrote:That's the nature of cultish thinking. Your mind gets rewired to the point where you're completely closed off from dissenting opinions.


There's more than 1 way of explaining the world. (If you ever took philosophy classes you will know that).
The current dominant way is the scientific way, which apparently you follow. Why are you so sure it's the right way? Looks a lot like cultish thinking to me, don't it?

Science WORKS, like it or not. So for a lot of objective domains, it is the dominant way because it has proven itself for centuries, like it or not.

And that doesn't mean science is the only way or "right" way to look at everything. Religion and science have NOTHING to do with each other (regardless of what certain groups trying to deny things like evolution, say).

If you're so sure science is a bad way to look at things, why not jump off tall buildings, jump in front of cars and trains, etc? I say it's because your irrational beliefs, no matter how strongly held, won't win out over science in the VAST MAJORITY of situations where objective data applies. Especially when the process of science is allowed to work (vs. science denialism), self-correcting over time, as more is learned.

There's a reason we live in buildings and have fancy electronics and massive flying machines, etc. instead of still living in caves and gathering berries. Deny it all you want, but science is at the core of that progress.

And just because science doesn't solve all the problems that come with progress doesn't mean "science bad".
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby GHung » Wed 01 Apr 2020, 15:28:10

ASG said: ...."But you just build your own reality........"

ASG accusing others of building their own reality had me laughing so hard I dropped the keyboard. Seems self-awareness isn't a thing for him.
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby mousepad » Wed 01 Apr 2020, 15:31:20

Outcast_Searcher wrote:There's a big difference between innovative thinking and denying reality.

Just because smart people find it hard to predict the future, for example, does NOT mean that science denial doesn't matter. Or that Trump worship and mindlessly yelling "fake news" without even investigating the data doesn't matter.


Yes, but they go hand in hand. Innovation is happening because somebody doesn't accept the current reality as God given.
For every 1 million nutters you have 1 nutter who denies in the right direction and comes up with something great.

If you don't have any nutters you won't have innovation, because you wouldn't think outside the box. You wouldn't be nuts, you would be a conformist, jailed to the limits of the prevalent thinking.

Only a nut starts a new car business daring against mega corporations in a consolidating market. Only a nut...
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 01 Apr 2020, 15:36:37

asg70 wrote:It's enough to make one question freedom of speech because what needs to happen more than anything else is to filter out bullshit rather than having it sit side by side with decent information. This problem has been brewing for so long. Just having a comments section underneath news articles is extremely dangerous as you're always tempted to slide down and read the dueling spin. Everyone's living in their own personal reality distortion field.

Aggravating as it is, given the consequences of having people like Trump being allowed to speak and make rules, but making it ILLEGAL for doctors and scientists, and yes, the general public to protest or point out alternative FACTS is, with respect, a TOTALLY HORRIBLE idea -- which I presume you'll agree with, given that frightening example, re the need for free speech.

Like with science -- free speech certainly doesn't solve all the problems it touches, and re the reality distortion field, sometimes it CAUSES plenty. But like science, it's an excellent and needed tool for advanced societies, and the global community, in the longer run. IMO.

It reminds me of democracy -- it's a badly flawed system, but it's the best one we have.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby mousepad » Wed 01 Apr 2020, 15:41:08

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Science WORKS, like it or not.


Not for everyhting, no it doesn't. But it works for some things, that's for sure.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 01 Apr 2020, 16:00:17

GHung wrote:ASG accusing others of building their own reality had me laughing so hard I dropped the keyboard. Seems self-awareness isn't a thing for him.


You're free to challenge my world-view if you like but just an ad hom ain't moving the needle.

Outcast_Searcher wrote:making it ILLEGAL for doctors and scientists, and yes, the general public to protest or point out alternative FACTS is


Alternative facts is an oxymoron.

What you said before about walking off a cliff is what's on-point. People who deny the most fundamental aspects of human existence do so at their own peril, like the asshole flat-earther who killed himself going up in a rocket. Being unable to properly measure threats is deadly both to the individual and the tribe as a whole, the whole boy who cried wolf phenomenon or Noah and the flood. Probably the #1 prerequisite of a functional society is to properly measure and respond to threats. When threats are either exaggerated or ignored, survival is threatened. That's why it's not simply a casual case of people exercising their right to their opinion. The proliferation of ideas eventually leads to policy decisions and behaviors that make or break the welfare of the collective.

The nut contingent here who are still hung up on "Building 7" or the JFK assassination for that matter are, IMHO, useless to society.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby mousepad » Wed 01 Apr 2020, 16:49:13

asg70 wrote:The proliferation of ideas eventually leads to policy decisions and behaviors that make or break the welfare of the collective.


Yes, that's true. But can you imagine that not everybody has the same value system and not everybody agree on what the "welfare of the collective" is?
I think that's where the problems of the world start, always somebody trying to impose their sense of welfare over somebody else's.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 01 Apr 2020, 17:52:11

Modern Money Theory 8O
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby ralfy » Thu 02 Apr 2020, 01:47:06

When it comes to peak oil, one looks at cost, not price.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 02 Apr 2020, 09:36:24

The USA is still a heavily regulated somewhat free country and none of you are forced to be here against your will.
The owner of this website is also a free person acting in his own belief that this remains an important point of contact on the internet and he is free to continue to do so until such time as he either can no longer afford to pay the upkeep on the servers or someone passes an amendment to the Constitution limiting his free speech right to maintain this site.

Do what your internal guidance tells you, but do not expect anyone else to blindly follow your demands.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 02 Apr 2020, 11:40:48

Here is a timely post-mortem on peak oil.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/20 ... 210b8a3dd3

The world still needs oil during this crisis, but what we are seeing today is exactly what I think we would see in the peak demand scenario.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby evilgenius » Thu 02 Apr 2020, 13:57:46

Science is testable. If you disagree with the consensus, you have to come up with an hypothesis that explains reality as well as the consensus does. You aren't allowed to get it 10% right, and then claim the other 90%. Your hypothesis as constructed doesn't have to be perfect. It can have holes, but it can't be 90% wrong.

These conspiracy theories are mostly 90% wrong, and claiming that they are right! As such, they come with all of the authority of yet another mental midget who thinks that Einstein has to be wrong. You may well be right, but you have to prove it.

Science has some terrific problems. Relativity and quantum mechanics don't align, for instance. Newton was not right. He was only approximately right. He was as right as statistics can be sometimes. In order to turn that around, Einstein had to prove he was right. He had to offer something viable. Then it had to be tested. Even though he did, his ideas still catch a lot of flack.

You can't test these conspiracy theories. If you try, they evaporate. Then, they materialize somewhere else, where there is less scrutiny. The same goes for the mental landscape in which these ideas thrive. The people who perpetuate them don't seem self-critical in the way where they would change their minds if they were offered proof. They are much more like gamblers, who only look upon their winning hands as proof and separate themselves from the losing hands as if they happened to someone else. What they really need is to get a dog, it will act like it loves them no matter what they think.

I do like the point about randomness and the creation of true novelty. Evolution does come at the behest of pure change, and is not engineered. Survival is the only necessary criteria. But thinking like that with everything does open up the possibility of change for change's sake, and not because of proof or beauty, like math.

My brother just said something that I think is pertinent to this discussion. "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself,... and stupid. We should be shit scared of stupid."

And, by the way, I am not against anybody in particular on this site. I love this site. I love it for many of the peculiarities it has which aren't scientific. I love how it concretely lays out people's fears. But I don't confuse fear with science. I understand that fear is something to listen to. It says something about people's emotions. It can help describe where they are coming from. It doesn't necessarily say that those people aren't capable of thinking critically. Fear is not critical. It can be logical, depending upon where people are standing.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby sparky » Thu 02 Apr 2020, 15:06:59

.
Evolving is the very essence of survival
this site was created on the concept of Peak Oil
it was a very serious concern , crude oil is one of the very pillar of modern society
common sense alone led one to believe a production peak would occur within a generation due to geological constraints

NOPE , common sense lie battered and bloody on the rhetorical floor
there well might be a production peak but it would be through lack of demand rather than lack of supply

That when all true believer put ashes on their heads bump their forelock on the floor moaning
" I wuss Wrong I wuss Wrong "
.....gosh that hurt !

what next ? well ,
crude is still a pillar of modern society but now the concern is less the crude and more the society itself

I would suggest a slight shift toward energy inputs and the resulting type of societies
this might please
-the greenish fanatics trawling anywhere to spew their blinkered obsessions
-the hard core oilmen who try to take a long view from the peaks and troughs of their business
-the interested dilettantes just wanting some basic facts on what or whom is running the power plant of their life
-the incorrigible peak oilers who hold to the hard fact of depletion and the absolute lack of any Santa Claus
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 02 Apr 2020, 15:50:53

evilgenius wrote:What they really need is to get a dog, it will act like it loves them no matter what they think.


That's more profound than you realize. Psychoanalyze someone who is a CT nut and more often than not I think you'll find deep-seated trust issues that go all the way back to childhood. For instance, I haven't read Dave Mustaine's biography but I am pretty sure there's something in his past that led him to feel a profound lack of trust in others. This led him to have a persecution complex, get him in trouble with his bandmates, constantly write songs that are the musical equivalent of Alex Jones rants, become a Jesus Freak, etc... He even has a song called TRUST.

Humans are social creatures and we rely upon an inner barometer known as TRUST to determine the difference between friend and foe and fight vs. flight. Just like any other biological mechanism, it's imperfect. The best you can do is become aware of this.

Civilization as we know it can not exist without some minimum amount of trust. If it gets to the point where nobody trusts anyone you have Mad Max, Children Of Men, etc...

CT people tend to confuse lack of "trust" with "enlightenment". If you accuse someone or an institution of something that isn't true what you do is erode this trust which tears away at the pillars of civilization itself. It is not a liberating force but rather a destructive force.

The only way to counter this is through rationality. But humans have trouble doing that.

evilgenius wrote:I love how it concretely lays out people's fears. But I don't confuse fear with science.


This site is mostly a psychological case-study.

I remember back in the old days when I used to have an account at Life After the Oil Crash where opinions were even more extreme. The denizens here are sort of the stale leftovers of that demographic.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 06 Apr 2020, 18:30:22

Every day I run through a few news feeds and a couple of other forums, cruising oriented, and Facebook.

What I basically find looking out there is that people are completely fixed in their own confirmation bias, are fed a mush of meaningless number, react emotionally instead of rationally, have no memory, and no sense of history.

While this site has its share of nutz, screws, and cranks we are generally a better educated and more reasonable assemblage if loose bits. While we are far from perfect, as a group I find this place better than average.

Yes we have our difficulties but we are here to work them out. There are lots of harsh arguments with no agreement. But that does not mean that our words go unheeded. It’s difficult to admit our adversary has a point, but sometimes that point will stick and come back out later. It takes patience. I very much dislike when things resort to deeply personal attacks because those kinds of things leave scars that make progress very difficult.

Reminds me of a quote from Kahanaman.
Nothing is as important as you think when you are thinking about it.


And that kind of sums up what I see in value here. It’s in the long haul that we improve our minds and our arguments.

2¢.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 06 Apr 2020, 18:49:17

Newfie wrote:While we are far from perfect, as a group I find this place better than average.


And that is your bias.

The membership here has had a grinding brain-drain over the years. For instance, it used to have people like Cid who (while extreme in viewpoint) at least pointed to real reference data rather than tinfoil. Now the loudest voices are very firmly in the denialist and CT camp on just about every issue of import. I don't know why you can't see this. Frog in the pot syndrome, maybe. Whatever.

Question, have you ever thought about actively promoting this site to bring in new blood? I mean, even something as simple as finally upgrading the forum software would probably help, dropping the sidebar with the ancient photos of people who are all gone or even dead (like Matt Simmons and Al Bartlett). If it looks like a a graveyard then only trolls and cranks and hangers on will be here. Seriously, after all these years maybe it's time to redecorate and put some real effort in.

Upgrade, rebrand, declare a broader mission statement, etc...

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 06 Apr 2020, 20:44:48

ASG,

The world is full of people telling other people what to do with their great ideas.

What is missing is people willing to enact their own great ideas.

Go right ahead.
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Re: Should this site be shut down?

Unread postby mousepad » Tue 07 Apr 2020, 07:09:10

Newfie wrote:
While this site has its share of nutz, screws, and cranks we are generally a better educated and more reasonable assemblage if loose bits. While we are far from perfect, as a group I find this place better than average.
.


well said
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