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Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Unread postby jawagord » Thu 26 Mar 2020, 10:06:21

The doom and gloom ice posting are off to a slow start this year. March maximums are in and it’s another non record year with Arctic sea ice extent the highest in 7 years. Natural variability trumps AGW again?

Arctic sea ice appears to have reached its annual maximum extent on March 5. The 2020 maximum sea ice extent is the eleventh lowest in the 42-year satellite record, but the highest since 2013.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020?

Unread postby JuanP » Thu 26 Mar 2020, 10:24:04

jawagord wrote:The doom and gloom ice posting are off to a slow start this year. March maximums are in and it’s another non record year with Arctic sea ice extent the highest in 7 years. Natural variability trumps AGW again?

Arctic sea ice appears to have reached its annual maximum extent on March 5. The 2020 maximum sea ice extent is the eleventh lowest in the 42-year satellite record, but the highest since 2013.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

The maximum ice extension may not be that bad, but how about thickness and total volume? Most of that ice is very thin ice that could melt very fast if recent record hot global temperatures continue. Maximum winter ice extent is one of the least important numbers regarding this issue. It's the Summer ice that is most important. I guess we will see what the minimum Arctic sea ice extension looks like in a few months. I expect Arctic sea ice to melt almost completely any year now, and the albedo from that will seriously melt the little multi year thick ice remaining.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020?

Unread postby Azothius » Sat 28 Mar 2020, 09:12:22

Looking at the 2020 extent on the NSIDC chart, there has been unusually quick reduction in extent. Am wondering if this is bad data? See the graph here:
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/char ... ice-graph/


Looking at the volume, it does look like 2020 will likely come in as the lowest ever as the melt season develops (the volume continues to grow to mid April even as the edges begin to melt?):

Image


I have also been wondering about the relatively thin ice in the central arctic basin, here is 2020 map:

Image


here is March 27, 2019 for comparison:

Image


and here is March 27, 2018:

Image


http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-ic ... nd-volume/
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020?

Unread postby Azothius » Sun 05 Apr 2020, 10:38:00

One week later...


Persistent above average temps over the arctic - it's been similar to this image for April 5th for several days (and much of the winter):

Image

As illustrated in this graph:

Image


Volume continues to amass at the lowest amount ever:

Image



Extent is on a par with 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 - only 2019 was lower at this time of year:
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/char ... ice-graph/
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020?

Unread postby evilgenius » Sun 05 Apr 2020, 11:36:21

I think you have to look at the steepness of the curve. 2019 was steeper. For early April, the steepness of the curve is about the same as other years outside of 2019 within the last decade. It's not set up for less ice loss, nor for more. If we are lucky, it will only continue the trend. We don't want an inflection point right now. The virus is competing with the issue. It may well go ignored. Not that it wouldn't be anyway.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020?

Unread postby Azothius » Sun 05 Apr 2020, 12:08:22

Well, there are many factors that will influence the steepness of that curve as the melt season unfolds, not least of which is the volume of the ice, which is trending low.

Also, I read somewhere that ice export through the Fram Straight has already begun. Seems unlikely to happen so early?

But looking at the surface winds on Earth.null School, they are blowing from the north right through the straight.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... ,88.33,288
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020?

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 05 Apr 2020, 17:51:04

Azothius wrote:Also, I read somewhere that ice export through the Fram Straight has already begun. Seems unlikely to happen so early?


Export is not time of year depend so much as the Arctic Oscillation cycle. When it runs one way the export rate is low, when it runs the opposite direction export is high no matter what time of the year it is.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 06 Apr 2020, 04:47:46

This might be a dumb question, but with the world largely relatively shut down, there are lots of short term indications that's good for the environment/AGW.

As this continues and the season progresses, could the global shutdown affect the arctic sea ice this season, or would that input be a much longer term thing for the sea ice?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020?

Unread postby JuanP » Mon 06 Apr 2020, 07:39:05

Outcast_Searcher wrote:This might be a dumb question, but with the world largely relatively shut down, there are lots of short term indications that's good for the environment/AGW.

As this continues and the season progresses, could the global shutdown affect the arctic sea ice this season, or would that input be a much longer term thing for the sea ice?


We may actually experience increased heat as NO2 and other global dimming pollutants have been drastically reduced because they last a short time in the air. This could lead to positive feedbacks which could also increase temperatures faster, things like faster ice and snow melt, which would lead to a higher albedo effect and, maybe, increased methane releases, too. This has never happened before so I am very curious to see how it plays out.

The reduction in greenhouse gasses emissions would be something that would only matter if it continued long term, and it would only slow the process of global warming, not stop it, IMO. I believe runaway global warming is already baked in the systems.

I would appreciate feedback on my opinion since it is mostly a guess. I don't know much about this at all.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020?

Unread postby Azothius » Mon 06 Apr 2020, 08:42:56

JuanP wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:This might be a dumb question, but with the world largely relatively shut down, there are lots of short term indications that's good for the environment/AGW.

As this continues and the season progresses, could the global shutdown affect the arctic sea ice this season, or would that input be a much longer term thing for the sea ice?


We may actually experience increased heat as NO2 and other global dimming pollutants have been drastically reduced because they last a short time in the air. This could lead to positive feedbacks which could also increase temperatures faster, things like faster ice and snow melt, which would lead to a higher albedo effect and, maybe, increased methane releases, too. This has never happened before so I am very curious to see how it plays out.

The reduction in greenhouse gasses emissions would be something that would only matter if it continued long term, and it would only slow the process of global warming, not stop it, IMO. I believe runaway global warming is already baked in the systems.

I would appreciate feedback on my opinion since it is mostly a guess. I don't know much about this at all.



I've shared this elsewhere, but here is Paul Beckwith's analysis of the effect the economic slowdown could have on reducing global dimming and it's effect upon temperatures:

Magnitude of Global Dimming from Coronavirus Shutdowns: Part 1 of 3
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34e1LJ9C-mw
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020?

Unread postby Azothius » Thu 30 Apr 2020, 10:34:38

Pretty striking downturn of arctic sea ice volume.
Compaction % is also notably low.


Image

Extent
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent/ ... 2000:00:00

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/char ... ice-graph/

Area & Compaction
https://cryospherecomputing.tk/NRT2.html
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020?

Unread postby evilgenius » Fri 01 May 2020, 13:06:55

Yes, I was looking at the historical graph this morning on NSIDC. Last year was the only year that was much lower at this time. And the rate of decline is similar now to last year. It wouldn't take much to get a record year. Just because it wouldn't take much doesn't mean that's what will happen. The point is that you can't rule out a record year based upon the current level of ice cover.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 30 Jun 2020, 22:59:31

Image
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 30 Jun 2020, 23:01:08

Image
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 30 Jun 2020, 23:51:40

Thanks for the excellent chart and map. Almost all of that Arctic Sea ice is only a year old, so it could evaporate in a flash...

and then there's this:

Disastrous Summer in the Arctic

https://www.newyorker.com/news/annals-o ... the-arctic

The permafrost found in the area surrounding Verkhoyansk is some of the deepest and oldest in the world, descending as much as five thousand feet. Closer to the surface, a type of ice-rich permafrost known as yedoma is particularly vulnerable to rapid thaws. The result is thermokarst, the strange and sometimes shocking topography that forms as the land slides, sags, and sinks. Mysterious sinkholes suddenly appear, drunken forests fall, and hillocks destroy farmland.

One of Russia’s most extreme examples of thermokarst, known as the Batagay megaslump, is a two-hundred-and-eighty-foot-deep, half-mile-wide depression, situated just outside Verkhoyansk. It first began forming as a small gully in the nineteen-sixties, because of deforestation, but has grown significantly in recent years, exposing the remains of ancient creatures, including musk ox, a cave lion, a Pleistocene wolf, a woolly mammoth, and an almost perfectly preserved, forty-thousand-year-old foal.

While exciting for scientists and tusk hunters, the megaslump is another sign of the challenges that people in the region—home to several indigenous cultures and languages, including Sakha, Evenki, Even, and others—face if they want to remain on their land. Some locals call it a gateway to the underworld, which seems appropriate, as the slump releases more and more methane.

Researchers who have been to the slump say that they can hear the thuds, booms, and cracks of the thawing ice. This summer, the sound will be especially loud.


and of course, there's:

Beavers Gnawing Away at the Arctic Permafrost


https://phys.org/news/2020-06-beavers-g ... frost.html
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Unread postby FamousDrScanlon » Wed 01 Jul 2020, 01:15:50

Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Volumes 1979-2019


Latest visualization of the startling decline of Arctic Sea Ice, showing the minimum volume reached every September since 1979. At this rate, it is expected that the Arctic ocean will become ice-free for an increasingly large part of the year beginning sometime in the 2030s.

The rate of loss is staggering. In just 40 years the volume of Summer Arctic sea ice has declined by about 80%.
What may normally take tens of thousands of years to happen in geologic timescales has happened within half a human lifespan, and continuing.


https://youtu.be/j9kltK1R9gc
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 01 Jul 2020, 10:09:06

FamousDrScanlon wrote:Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Volumes 1979-2019


Latest visualization of the startling decline of Arctic Sea Ice, showing the minimum volume reached every September since 1979. At this rate, it is expected that the Arctic ocean will become ice-free for an increasingly large part of the year beginning sometime in the 2030s.

The rate of loss is staggering. In just 40 years the volume of Summer Arctic sea ice has declined by about 80%.
What may normally take tens of thousands of years to happen in geologic timescales has happened within half a human lifespan, and continuing.


https://youtu.be/j9kltK1R9gc


If the average volume decline rate below 1979 is 2% per year then we might be ice free in 2029. Depending on weather and other variables that gives a window of say 2025-2035. While this is better than the predictions made back in 2007 (ice free 2013) and 2012 (ice free 2016) the trend that lead to those predictions has continued relentlessly.

I would think even blase' governments in the EU/Russia/Canada/USA would be pouring money into research as an ice free Arctic Ocean has a major impact on both weather and climate. Every bit of dark blue sea at this time of year is absorbing energy, like charging a massive battery. At some point even if we crash civilization and stop emitting greenhouse gasses the thermal accumulation will be enough to prevent a return of the sea ice for a long time until it has dissipated into the rest of the environment.

This is one of those climate tipping points, once you fall over into an ice free Arctic Ocean it will remain ice free for a very long time even if greenhouse gas emissions stop.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 03 Jul 2020, 18:38:05

Tanada,
The USA may not even notice. Too busy with “important” matters.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 05 Jul 2020, 09:01:53

Tanada wrote:
If the average volume decline rate below 1979 is 2% per year then we might be ice free in 2029. Depending on weather and other variables that gives a window of say 2025-2035. While this is better than the predictions made back in 2007 (ice free 2013) and 2012 (ice free 2016) the trend that lead to those predictions has continued relentlessly.

.

I predict that the predictions will change faster then the ice cover. :)
But if you take your 2% per year decline once you arrived at ice free condition it would still only be until the fall refreeze which will still happen every year. You might get a 2% per year increase in the number of ice free days which might take decades to get to a whole month of ice free conditions in the average summer.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2020

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 05 Jul 2020, 10:41:14

vtsnowedin wrote:
Tanada wrote:
If the average volume decline rate below 1979 is 2% per year then we might be ice free in 2029. Depending on weather and other variables that gives a window of say 2025-2035. While this is better than the predictions made back in 2007 (ice free 2013) and 2012 (ice free 2016) the trend that lead to those predictions has continued relentlessly.

.

I predict that the predictions will change faster then the ice cover. :)
But if you take your 2% per year decline once you arrived at ice free condition it would still only be until the fall refreeze which will still happen every year. You might get a 2% per year increase in the number of ice free days which might take decades to get to a whole month of ice free conditions in the average summer.


True up to a point, which is where that thermal battery effect makes such a big difference. As the ice free period goes on the sea surface absorbs a lot of energy. When freeze up starts that thermal energy delays freeze up until at least the top foot/15cm cools down sufficiently to freeze. As a secondary effect in the 1970's and earlier the places that thawed completely inside the Arctic basin where usually surrounded by floating ice on all sides and small in area which limited the ability of wind and wave action to mix the melt water down into the saltier layers beneath. However as these "leads" in the ice grow in area especially from 2007 to the current day they have often grown large enough for wind and wave action to homogenize the surface layer salinity with that of the layers below, which raises the salt content and makes freezing delay in a completely separate mechanism of effect.

Add these two effects together and the fall freeze up is delayed and the resulting ice when it does form is both thinner and more porous than it used to be. Thinner and more porous ice is easier to melt once the thaw season begins which again makes it easier to accumulate ice free periods from the other direction by accelerating spring thaw.

Now this in no guarantee, for example we have had many years in the last decade where the variation from year to year has been greater than such a simple prediction would account for. However that being said the continuing trend for the last two decades at least has been a variation around a mean decline of 2% averaged over the entire satellite reporting era since 1979.

So what happens when we get a week of ice free conditions? Well for one thing that will give ample time for the surface layer to be homogenized with the lower saltier layers over the entire expanse of the Arctic Ocean. It will also give an extended period when thermal energy will be absorbed into the sea water over the entire expanse of the surface. Both of these effects will have a tendency to delay fall freeze up and promote spring thaw as stated above. One week the first year could easily lead to anything from no totally ice free period the second year to a two or three week ice free period the second year. That is just seasonal variation the same as we have seen in the yearly ice cover totals so far. Ultimately however as time marches on that ice free period will expand be it slowly or rapidly until we hit the winter where there is so much accumulated thermal energy that the now thoroughly homogenized surface does not fall below the freezing point of salty sea water until spring thaw is already under way. When we get there the Arctic will be ice free year around and I suspect it shall be much sooner than most people presume because it is such a radical shift from the previous condition.

One thing I did not mention is the gulf stream. In the distant past when the Arctic was ice free the Gulf Stream extended north into the basin and circulated following the Siberian coast. When this condition prevailed the warmer Gulf Stream delivered vast quantities of heat to the Arctic Ocean providing additional resistance to winter melting and the currently stagnant bottom water in the deep Arctic basins was continually displaced with new water flowing in the same way it currently happen in the Mediterranean Sea. The Arctic Ocean is much like the Mediterranean Sea in that it has a deep basin isolated by a "sill" a few hundred feet deep separating the deeps of the North Atlantic from the Arctic. Millions of years ago when the north was ice free years around the Arctic and Mediterranean Seas both functions the same way, surface waters flowed in, evaporated becoming more salty but warming at the same time maintaining their density. Then as they traveled further from the entrance into the basin those surface waters accumulated heat at a rate fast enough to offset their increased density from higher salinity until they were so salty they could no longer be warmed enough and sank to the bottom as hot dense high salinity water. In the Mediterranean Sea this level of heat and salinity is huge compared to the average water conditions at the same depth in the Atlantic/Pacific/Indian Oceans. For the Arctic conditions are not so extreme, but the difference is enough to drive a circulation system that is currently stalled leaving the deep basin waters stagnant for several million years. When that salinity pump starts back up the world ocean circulation pattern will change in a virtual eye blink.
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