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Collapsing or not?

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Are we now in an accelerated phase of collapse or is this just temporary disruption ?

1. Yes we are in a process of collapse
11
44%
2. No, we will continue business as usual a while longer
14
56%
 
Total votes : 25

Collapsing or not?

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 23 Mar 2020, 09:32:07

As per my poll question, you can elaborate on your choice
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Mon 23 Mar 2020, 09:39:48

The poll doesn't make sense. Collapse isn't a definitive term, it's relativistic. Without more detail of what you mean by collapse it's a meaningless question. The second option, BAU continue? Do you live under a rock?
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 23 Mar 2020, 10:26:33

It's early still but I think considering this is a global phenomenon that the money issues of who owes whom will be arbitrated to the point where the economy will be able to get back on its feet again. Assuming that happens, then BAU will resume.

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-I'm glad Trump is in there now. I think we'll have a vaccine in a couple of months. (mmasters, 3/17/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 23 Mar 2020, 10:49:32

The China virus pandemic will pass and fade away, just as MERS, SARS, and other past disease threats faded away.

Then its back to BAU, assuming the Saudis and Russians jointly flooding the market with oil doesn't succeed in destroying the US fracking industry.

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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby Sys1 » Mon 23 Mar 2020, 10:58:22

I'm a doomer but I bet BAU will be back before summer.
The collapse will come from lack of oil, not lack of will.
So... not yet. Collapse will come around 2030, when oil production reach Seneca cliff.
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 23 Mar 2020, 11:01:25

Remember all those bell curves we see of the “surge”. Globally we are somewhere on the upside of that curve. The curve width is about 3-4 months. So we have, very roughly, 2-3 months more of this before things start to settle out.

But then they will settle out. Even before that the cultures and societies will start to adapt. I don’t think we have seen the bottom of the economic surge yet, but there will be a bottom and a recovery.

I’m thinking the economic recovery will be what is called a saw tooth. A steep decline with a gradual recovery. It may well never return to the pre-virus highs, and surely not for a while. But it won’t collapse the global economy.

That will happen some day, sometime in the future, just not this day.
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 25 Mar 2020, 03:37:08

SeaGypsy wrote:The poll doesn't make sense. Collapse isn't a definitive term, it's relativistic. Without more detail of what you mean by collapse it's a meaningless question. The second option, BAU continue? Do you live under a rock?

Depends on what you mean by BAU, just like you mentioned re collapse.

Also depends on the time frame.

If collapse means the global economy is basically destroyed, I don't think so. Even if this thing rips through the entire global population fairly quickly and due to overwhelming the medical systems of lots of countries, kills 10 or even 15 percent of the population (mostly elderly and/or sickly), that's REALLY, REALLY, nasty, but it doesn't change anything FUNDAMENTAL.

Within 5 or at most 10 years, you have a growing global economy, people traveling a lot in jets, global transpo miles overall growing, global GDP tending to grow over time, etc. That, big picture, is how I'd define BAU, even if there's a clear haitus to get back there. Based on how we bounced back from the great recession (which I wrongly thought could take 5 to 10 years at the time to really recover), I think we'd be in the ballpark of BAU within 3 to 5 years, even if it takes 18 months to get an effective vaccine administered in volume globally.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 25 Mar 2020, 03:44:44

Sys1 wrote:I'm a doomer but I bet BAU will be back before summer.
The collapse will come from lack of oil, not lack of will.
So... not yet. Collapse will come around 2030, when oil production reach Seneca cliff.

Well IF it happens that soon (and there have been a LOT of bad calls trying to predict that event):

Not too long after 2030, you have a hell of a lot of electric cars. People will be able to switch in large numbers, to both efficient HEV's and PHEV's, as well as to BEV's, both used and new. And electric cars will be more efficient, and cheaper, and have better ranges, and the charging infrastructure will be better.

Once gas prices get really inconvenient for a couple/few years, people will get MUCH more interested in switching to electric -- and it will be FAR easier to do do than it has been up to now.

In the early 2030's, it still rocks the economy for awhile, but being rocked isn't collapse, any more than being rocked 3 times in the 70's by oil surges/OPEC meant collapse. It's a big recession. People won't like it. Big picture, BAU will persist.

The word, collapse is WAY over-used around here, evidence by the many, many incorrect forecasts for it.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 25 Mar 2020, 03:59:44

Newfie wrote:Remember all those bell curves we see of the “surge”. Globally we are somewhere on the upside of that curve. The curve width is about 3-4 months. So we have, very roughly, 2-3 months more of this before things start to settle out.

But then they will settle out. Even before that the cultures and societies will start to adapt. I don’t think we have seen the bottom of the economic surge yet, but there will be a bottom and a recovery.

I’m thinking the economic recovery will be what is called a saw tooth. A steep decline with a gradual recovery. It may well never return to the pre-virus highs, and surely not for a while. But it won’t collapse the global economy.

That will happen some day, sometime in the future, just not this day.

I agree overall with that general scenario, but think we can't say with any confidence re the timing.

I don't know how we know whether things just go back to normal after a big X month COVID-19 surge, or whether there will be multiple ripples (each time we ease up on distancing, in an attempt to crank up the economy again, requiring rapidly resuming distancing), until the vaccine issue is resolved globally.

I think we may well LEARN this from China and other places with flattish curves compared to the steep scary ones now, over the next several months while our big initial surge is playing out. Of course, many others will claim any such data much be false because "reasons", despite a lack of supporting data that there are really many millions of cases in China.

And then there's weather. There's all sorts of opinions, but I've noticed the leading virologists don't seem to claim to know what happens with this thing in the summer or next fall.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 25 Mar 2020, 04:05:56

Plantagenet wrote:The China virus pandemic will pass and fade away, just as MERS, SARS, and other past disease threats faded away.

Then its back to BAU, assuming the Saudis and Russians jointly flooding the market with oil doesn't succeed in destroying the US fracking industry.

Cheers!

First, the oil doesn't go away. If the US fracking industry gets sold to stronger hands who have to wait to profitably frack again, they just wait. If prices are too low to frac, the world doesn't need the oil. If it does, prices move up to match demand, and at some point, that oil gets fracked again. No doom, not even close.

A bunch of aggressive frackers getting wiped out isn't doom -- it's casualties in an aggressive industry with a highly volatile commodity being produced. IOW, BAU, just like since the early 70's when OPEC started making oil prices much more volatile.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby GHung » Wed 25 Mar 2020, 07:35:50

Outcast_Searcher wrote: .......

And then there's weather. There's all sorts of opinions, but I've noticed the leading virologists don't seem to claim to know what happens with this thing in the summer or next fall.


If the hot 'summer' countries are any indication, cov19 seems to do just fine in warmer weather.

Philippines: 636 reported, 38 deaths
Malaysia: 1796/19
Indonesia: 790/58
Many cases down under where they are just going out of summer

Map here: https://data.citizen-times.com/coronavirus/active/
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 25 Mar 2020, 08:06:24

Collapse is not an event it is a process. And boy are we far along in that process. Socially, economically and politically. I speak in a worldview. Obviously some countries are further along than others. As for a definition or characterization of this Collapse process one can say it is the deterioration of favorable/desirable living conditions for people
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 25 Mar 2020, 09:13:30

onlooker wrote:boy are we far along in that process.


Sorry, um, no. Shutting in with netflix is nothing.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-I'm glad Trump is in there now. I think we'll have a vaccine in a couple of months. (mmasters, 3/17/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 25 Mar 2020, 09:51:30

ASG,

I don’t think that’s what Onlooker meant. But to speak for myself I too believe we are far along in the process.

Look at the LTG curve and how we have fit it. We are a long way along that curve which ends in collapse. Think of it as a rape. Are we there yet? No, but I can see the end from here.
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby Cog » Wed 25 Mar 2020, 10:00:22

onlooker wrote:Collapse is not an event it is a process. And boy are we far along in that process. Socially, economically and politically. I speak in a worldview. Obviously some countries are further along than others. As for a definition or characterization of this Collapse process one can say it is the deterioration of favorable/desirable living conditions for people


Don't worry onlooker. Your monthly checks will still come in. :lol:

The motivation of the left is to keep this shutdown going on as long as possible to damage Trump and his reelection chances. You hate him and I get that. But the CFR for the USA is exactly the same as South Korea. You want massive deaths (not including you of course), but its not going to play out that way. When people go back to work, the economy and stock market will roar back. Sorry, this is not the doom event you have been praying for.
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby JuanP » Wed 25 Mar 2020, 10:02:26

onlooker wrote:Collapse is not an event it is a process. And boy are we far along in that process. Socially, economically and politically. I speak in a worldview. Obviously some countries are further along than others. As for a definition or characterization of this Collapse process one can say it is the deterioration of favorable/desirable living conditions for people


You nailed it! We are probably through the easy part; it will get harder and harder from now on. Most areas that experience a serious crisis now or in the future (the whole world as far as COVID-19 is concerned) are extremely unlikely to fully recover.
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 25 Mar 2020, 10:06:33

Newfie wrote:I too believe we are far along in the process.


The only way to feel that is from the perch of prosperity. Once we really ARE far along the process we'll look back on this period with envy.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-I'm glad Trump is in there now. I think we'll have a vaccine in a couple of months. (mmasters, 3/17/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby JuanP » Wed 25 Mar 2020, 10:49:38

asg70 wrote:
Newfie wrote:I too believe we are far along in the process.


The only way to feel that is from the perch of prosperity. Once we really ARE far along the process we'll look back on this period with envy.


It is true that we will look back on this period with nostalgia, but I am already very nostalgic about the world I grew up in a few decades ago, and we are already so far along the process that it is by now irreversible.
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby evilgenius » Wed 25 Mar 2020, 10:59:02

Sys1 wrote:I'm a doomer but I bet BAU will be back before summer.
The collapse will come from lack of oil, not lack of will.
So... not yet. Collapse will come around 2030, when oil production reach Seneca cliff.

+1 I also think it won't happen until closer to 2030.
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Re: Collapsing or not?

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 25 Mar 2020, 12:10:17

JuanP wrote:
asg70 wrote:
Newfie wrote:I too believe we are far along in the process.


The only way to feel that is from the perch of prosperity. Once we really ARE far along the process we'll look back on this period with envy.


It is true that we will look back on this period with nostalgia, but I am already very nostalgic about the world I grew up in a few decades ago, and we are already so far along the process that it is by now irreversible.


I often get the feeling that I have outlived my time. Things that were near and dear to me are no longer, or are prohibitive. I’m doing well none the less, but I’ve little desire to return to the USA.
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