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Trump signaling course change on virus

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Trump signaling course change on virus

Unread postby Cog » Mon 23 Mar 2020, 03:45:50

A modern and industrialized country can not simply put everyone out of work and keep them there. Trump is signaling that the administration is going to change direction. I suspect social distance and throwing money at hospitals will continue, but we are going to reopen for business, at least on a federal level. The elderly will have to continue to avoid contact as best they can. States will I'm sure continue their own restrictions but in due time they will also have to relax their restrictions due to pressure from their own citizens. We will be MAGA in no time.

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Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump · 5h5 hours ago

WE CANNOT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM ITSELF. AT THE END OF THE 15 DAY PERIOD, WE WILL MAKE A DECISION AS TO WHICH WAY WE WANT TO GO!
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Re: Trump signaling course change on virus

Unread postby GoghGoner » Mon 23 Mar 2020, 07:40:10

What is the 15-day period? Is he talking about a national lockdown?
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Re: Trump signaling course change on virus

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 23 Mar 2020, 07:42:31

Tough time to be a leader. He is going to take heat for this.

I’m seeing other countries take that route, they may have no alternative.

The timing is critical, at some point enough people will be infected that distancing will be far less effective. Especially if a bunch of yahoos break the isolation.

He needs to do a bunch of explaining, education, on this one. It’s gonna be a tough sell.
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Re: Trump signaling course change on virus

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 23 Mar 2020, 07:44:40

GoghGoner wrote:What is the 15-day period? Is he talking about a national lockdown?


Sounds more like going the other way, relaxing the social isolation in some segments.
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Re: Trump signaling course change on virus

Unread postby GoghGoner » Mon 23 Mar 2020, 07:51:18

Yeah, I guess he meant the current 15-day period of national inaction. I've been waiting for lockdown but he seems to be resistant, however, having states doing it piecemeal isn't going to work for the economy either.
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Re: Trump signaling course change on virus

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Mon 23 Mar 2020, 08:06:00

Newfie wrote:Tough time to be a leader. He is going to take heat for this.

I’m seeing other countries take that route, they may have no alternative.

Pakistan and India are good examples.
America is joining this club.
Well American old foxes - fingers cross and hope for the best. :-D
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Re: Trump signaling course change on virus

Unread postby GHung » Mon 23 Mar 2020, 08:19:34

The virus doesn't care one bit about all of this social bargaining. And the Fed now owns Trump.
Period.
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Re: Trump signaling course change on virus

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 23 Mar 2020, 10:28:24

Trump has made a very important point. What does it matter if save everyones lives but you have totally destroyed the economy so that they have no energy, no food, no materials? The final outcome would probably be much worse than the 1-3% death rate.

There is something I noticed here which was always a problem for oil and gas companies when decisions were required. If you let the pure scientists or engineers have their way you would often end up doing things that made no economic sense. If on the other hand if you let the economists have the only say on matters you would rapidly go out of business. The problem is that folks who are experts in their field of endeavor have a laser-like focus on solving problems based on their own understanding. They truly end up believing that their way of looking at things is the most important and they aren't very often interested in "the bigger picture". So put together a group of high power medical experts and the expected recommendation is exactly what we have....do whatever is possible to stop or slow the spread of disease and forget everything else. They love the fact they are now in the spotlight (at least some of them do) so trying to convince them they are wrong is a fools errand. In large oil and gas companies, this dichotomy of specialized opinions is usually solved if you have an excellent leader or leadership team. It is the job of the CEO and his team to look at all of the proposals and weigh the cost benefits of taking certain actions and then arrive at a solution that incorporates the best of all proposals. I suspect this is where the Trump administration will have to end up, some solution that tries to minimize the impact of medical needs on the economy. The market would respond positively to something like that I believe.
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Re: Trump signaling course change on virus

Unread postby GHung » Mon 23 Mar 2020, 10:31:35

rockdoc123 wrote: .......... The market would respond positively to something like that I believe.

What market would that be?
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Re: Trump signaling course change on virus

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 23 Mar 2020, 10:43:58

Then there is this...

About 100 million are supposed to be in lock down. Some additional percentage are probably obeying lock down. However, within the lockdown group some percentage are simply not following the order. So let’s say on average it works out to 100 million.

100 out of 330 million is not even one third. Statistics is not my strong point but my assumption is that with a 2.3 infection spreading factor we will need a much larger percentage of Americans in some isolation in order to adequately slow the growth. I’m not at all sure that number is and would like to hear more if someone knows or has a link discussion it. I think it also has to do with the incubation time.

My guess is that we need something on the order of 2/3ds locked down to be effective.

My understanding is that if we can not get to that number then the lock down is doing very little flatten the surge. Very limited benefit. Yet at the same time it is devastating the economy. So there comes a point where the diminishing returns from lockdown are far outweighed by the economic damage being inflicted.

That is probably not an easy calculation to make mathematically and surely not politically. My guess is Trumps advisors are telling him that unless the compliance rate rises rapidly the economic losses will greatly outweigh the benefits. Nasty calculation but someone needs to coldly look at it.

Anyway that’s my thoughts, or perhaps speculation is a better descriptor.
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Re: Trump signaling course change on virus

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 23 Mar 2020, 10:46:15

Trump told federal employees to work from home but he never issued an order to lockdown the entire US economy ----- all of the social isolation and self-quarantines have been ordered by local authorities.

Even if Trump tells federal employees to go back to work when the 14 days end, governors and mayors can still order LOCAL and STATEWIDE lockdowns and quarantines----just like they are doing now.

IMHO the self isolation is very important in places like Seattle and New York City where the China virus is spreading very rapidly now. In fact, the local authorities in New York should be doing MORE to keep NEW YORK locked down, or their hospitals will be flooded will sick and dying people, just like in Italy.

On the other hand, there are large areas of the US where the China virus is not yet a big problem. Perhaps these areas could move towards reopening.

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Re: Trump signaling course change on virus

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 23 Mar 2020, 10:59:08

One of the problems is not knowing who has it and who doesn't. Random isolation is costly.
In Canada we have this ridiculous idea that it is effective to simply get people coming into the country to say whether they have symptoms or not. Nobody is being checked for temperatures or other symptoms...it's all dependant on honesty which of course is an incredibly naive approach. If you could identify who has it and isolate them while leaving the rest of folks free to work etc you might be able to solve the overall disease without killing the patient. One problem is the degree to which people are apparently asymptomatic. That means that what is needed is a cheap means of testing where results can be obtained within hours not days.
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Re: Trump signaling course change on virus

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 23 Mar 2020, 11:04:29

One of the problems is not knowing who has it and who doesn't. Random isolation is costly.
In Canada we have this ridiculous idea that it is effective to simply get people coming into the country to say whether they have symptoms or not. Nobody is being checked for temperatures or other symptoms...it's all dependant on honesty which of course is an incredibly naive approach. If you could identify who has it and isolate them while leaving the rest of folks free to work etc you might be able to solve the overall disease without killing the patient. One problem is the degree to which people are apparently asymptomatic. That means that what is needed is a cheap means of testing where results can be obtained within hours not days.


Its very inexpensive to take people's temperatures in airports. Last time I went to Bali I had to change planes in Hong Kong and there was a uniformed Chinese guard as you exited the plane, taking everyone's temperature with a handheld laser thermometer.....and this was a year ago before the China virus even got started. It was just standard procedure in China.

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Re: Trump signaling course change on virus

Unread postby GHung » Mon 23 Mar 2020, 11:25:52

Plantagenet wrote: .......

On the other hand, there are large areas of the US where the China virus is not yet a big problem. Perhaps these areas could move towards reopening.

Cheers!


Until,,, what? It does become a big problem in those areas? That has been my wife's employer's take on things. The official maps have been showing no cases at all in our part of the state and businesses have been stalling until there are confirmed infections. Turns out, for reasons unknown, there was a confirmed case in the adjoining county on the 10th of March, the person went to a freaking DANCING CLASS, and now there are numerous cases being reported in the area, including several people who also took the dancing class.
News flash!!! NONE OF THESE CASES WERE BEING OFFICIALLY REPORTED UNTIL YESTERDAY, 12 days after the first case was confirmed.

Yet my wife is at work today having been informed she is a critical employee,,, in a building crowded with another 100+ people packed into cubicles, many from those counties that were told there were no cases of virus until yesterday.

Methinks you are all fukin crazy. No doubts about that at all.
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Re: Trump signaling course change on virus

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 23 Mar 2020, 11:37:14

GHung,

You own post answers the the question. Yes, people are crazy. How do you manage crazy people? Therein lies the problem.
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Re: Trump signaling course change on virus

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 23 Mar 2020, 11:46:13

Panama and most Latin AMerican countries remain on a total lockdown with still no signs of the natives being restless. Politicians are not signaling any restlessness either to return to BAU. So both the citizenry and politicians remain united.

The MInistry of Health published yesterday a very good detailed memorandum that was released to the public explaining that the next 10 days were the most critical to stop the spread and be disciplined about isolating oneself.

Panama does not have an ADD leader who impulsively tweets at midnight. The natives here are not thrown wacky curve balls and mixed messages. The message here is singular and serious and folks are following the lockdown.
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Re: Trump signaling course change on virus

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 23 Mar 2020, 11:48:32

Dominica is somewhat similar despite having a wacky government.

I think it has more to do with the people than the government.
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Re: Trump signaling course change on virus

Unread postby JuanP » Mon 23 Mar 2020, 11:54:01

Plantagenet wrote:
On the other hand, there are large areas of the US where the China virus is not yet a big problem. Perhaps these areas could move towards reopening.

Cheers!


Well, that would be what Americans call closing the barn's doors after the horses have already left. Plant, I have been reading your nonsense for years and ignoring it because you never made any sense, but thinking like that at this time will lead to the preventable deaths of millions of people all over the world. You make no sense! Do you understand the concept of flattening the curve to be capable of providing better care to sick people?

I want to encourage people to engage in social distancing, wash their hands, etc.. If you have to go to work because you need to then, of course, do it, but take whatever measures you can to protect yourself and others, like wearing a mask. Telecommuting should be mandatory wherever possible.
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Re: Trump signaling course change on virus

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 23 Mar 2020, 11:57:39

Newfie wrote:
I think it has more to do with the people than the government.


I have been thinking about this as well. As much as there is very clear fault with the US administration in handling this to date, you simply cannot pin the blame solely on government. You have to consider the citizenry and how predisposed they are to following any orders whether voluntary or mandatory. In this regard the USA is made up of a large percentage of citizens that do not want to be told what to do.

This cavalier disregard for authority and government is not an accident though. This has been cultivated by one party more than the other since decades.

The Republican party has been going rogue since decades in wanting to dismantle government.
The Democrats play lip service to strong effective government while most of the politicians still are in the pockets of wallstreet and corporations.

There is a clear difference. They are not the same. Democrats in general pay more attention to scientists. Republicans are more inclined to ignore scientists if their message conflicts with their agenda.

That will be the assumption many will have if Trump wants to go back to business as usual before the medical experts advise it.
Last edited by Ibon on Mon 23 Mar 2020, 12:03:48, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Trump signaling course change on virus

Unread postby yellowcanoe » Mon 23 Mar 2020, 12:02:12

rockdoc123 wrote:One of the problems is not knowing who has it and who doesn't. Random isolation is costly.
In Canada we have this ridiculous idea that it is effective to simply get people coming into the country to say whether they have symptoms or not. Nobody is being checked for temperatures or other symptoms...it's all dependant on honesty which of course is an incredibly naive approach. If you could identify who has it and isolate them while leaving the rest of folks free to work etc you might be able to solve the overall disease without killing the patient. One problem is the degree to which people are apparently asymptomatic. That means that what is needed is a cheap means of testing where results can be obtained within hours not days.


Temperature testing is the only way to quickly screen large numbers of people. I would have no problem with all international arrivals being subject to this type of screening as a standard policy though I agree it would be seen as unCanadian! I would surmise that we didn't start doing such screening after this virus appeared due to unavailability of the necessary equipment.

It really looks like Health Canada and the Federal Government completely discounted the idea that we could have a pandemic in Canada because there does not appear to have been any planning or preparations for a pandemic done. It has been an entirely seat of the pants operation since health authorities came to the conclusion that we were not going to be able to contain this virus. There is no stockpile of the N95 masks and protective clothing that health care workers would require, no masks for the general public and no equipment for screening/testing people. Considering that experts have been warning that a pandemic was just a matter of time I am truly shocked at the total lack of planning by our authorities. Of course we have plenty of company -- it seems that the US and many European countries were similarily unprepared due to a "It can't happen here" attitude.
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