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Doom?

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Has the Situation Finally Hit The Fan?

No! Paid Vacation, Baby!
1
5%
No Doom, just another day.
1
5%
Buck Up! it'll get bad then better.
13
62%
Yes, Pass the ammo.
1
5%
Yes, we're toast, assume the position and kiss it goodbye!
1
5%
First rule of Fight Club...
2
10%
I'll let you know when I come down from the hills.
2
10%
 
Total votes : 21

Doom?

Unread postby Pops » Sun 15 Mar 2020, 18:58:04

This site has always been fundamentally about Doom.
From resource scarcity to overpopulation to warming we've shredded it all to the nth.
Currently we are officially in a global pandemic, record stock market rout, almost inevitable global recession simply from the halt to consumption.
So give it a shot, is this IT?

PS: mind your lying normalcy and confirmation biases!
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Doom?

Unread postby Pops » Sun 15 Mar 2020, 19:06:01

I think it's going to get bad economically for sure. Shutting down many areas of the economy is going to affect lots of working class and small business.
60 million people contracted H1N1 and 100k-500k died in the first year. CDC etc appear to think this is worse.
Neither is a slate-wiper but it's easy to freak to, I'll give it a 5, Buck Up!
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Doom?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 15 Mar 2020, 19:11:33

Pops wrote:I think it's going to get bad economically for sure. Shutting down many areas of the economy is going to affect lots of working class and small business.
60 million people contracted H1N1 and 100k-500k died in the first year. CDC etc appear to think this is worse.
Neither is a slate-wiper but it's easy to freak to, I'll give it a 5, Buck Up!

I agree with Pops.

Naturally, as always, the doom monger crowd will play this for all it's worth, while it lasts, spreading the usual FUD. In fact, on various threads, they're already well into that sort of behavior. :shock:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Doom?

Unread postby jedrider » Sun 15 Mar 2020, 19:29:03

I'm seeing the panic now. Trump may have induced this by his continual prevarications.

It's just a pandemic. Calm down. However, we need rules and our cowboy sensibilities honed by Republicans who have now abandoned us because they were fooling us all along has reduced trust to ZERO. Republicans taught their followers that selfishness was the biggest virtue, but how is that working out now?

Yeah, it's a major setback to all economies. Governments should have been building surpluses to get us through these more difficult times. Have they? You mean the surpluses are in private hands?

Zero interest rates? I don't know that much about economics to comment on that though, whether that's a means to bail us out or it's another give-away? Again, the mistrust surfaces everywheres.
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Re: Doom?

Unread postby Pops » Sun 15 Mar 2020, 19:32:45

P.S. you lurkers really should register to participate in the fun.
Troll your favorite shills!
Confront the avatars or your ideological foes!
While away your final locked-down hours in this vale of tears!

If you have trouble you can post as a guest in the Welcome forum
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Doom?

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 15 Mar 2020, 21:35:57

A crisis, but not doom.

Despite a lack of paper products and disinfectants, there is overall a plethora of food products at the grocery store. The US remains an incredibly prosperous country with more than enough resources to keep us fat and comfortable in our shut-ins.

This is a weird situation but I predict that there will eventually be a byzantine set of measures at all levels of government, educational institutions, as well as acts of charity on the part of business/banking in order to treat this period as a sort of economic suspended animation. Trump is already drafting measures along those lines but I expect this to trickle all the way down to the state and local level. Also, this is a global phenomenon. The virus is everywhere including the most unlikely remote places like Iceland and the Faroe Islands. We're all in the same boat together and so there will be extreme social pressure to cut everyone some slack. But it will be very messy.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-I'm glad Trump is in there now. I think we'll have a vaccine in a couple of months. (mmasters, 3/17/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Doom?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 15 Mar 2020, 21:53:28

Pops wrote:This site has always been fundamentally about Doom.
From resource scarcity to overpopulation to warming we've shredded it all to the nth.
Currently we are officially in a global pandemic, record stock market rout, almost inevitable global recession simply from the halt to consumption.
So give it a shot, is this IT?


Personally, I don't think so.

The 1918 influenza pandemic is the best analogy to the current situation with the Wuhan virus pandemic. The 1918 flu was a global catastrophe but when it was over the world quickly regrouped, and economic growth surged into the "roaring twenties."

I think there's a good chance the same thing will happen again now.

Image
The 1918 flue epidemic was followed by the roading twenties. Perhaps the 2020 Wuhan virus will be followed by the roaring 2020s?

Cheers!
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Re: Doom?

Unread postby Cog » Mon 16 Mar 2020, 01:39:03

I suppose the Dems are waiting for federal workers to come by a wipe their noses for them and feed their kids. LOL.

No we aren't doomed. Far from it.
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Re: Doom?

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 18 Mar 2020, 09:00:56

Not doom, just a shot across the bow. Far worse is to come. Not necessarily for those here but for our kids.

Folks we know will die sooner. But it won’t wipe out 20% of the population or anything like that. Standard of living may go down, but that has its advantages. Taken over a long enough time frame this has a potential to be a net positive.

(He said sittin at a beach bar sucking coffee.) :-D
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Re: Doom?

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 18 Mar 2020, 09:14:34

Reason I'm back is for the first time in years we can speculate about something that's actually happening, not hypothetical.

I think it's going to be very bad in some ways, good in others. A heck of a lot remains to be seen. I feel most sorry for friends with very little money or food, laid off & locked down in developing countries with no social security & no competent government. Compared to their situation, mine & most here is a veritable Shangri-la.
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Re: Doom?

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 18 Mar 2020, 11:16:14

Sea,

True. I think it is early to assess the economic implications of this mess. There are a lot of people around the world that rely upon imported food. Shut down those transport links, like the consumer links were shut down to China, and some of those places will become very “uncomfortable.”

But also think about Saudi Arabia. They are in this stupid oil war with Russia (is that still going on???) Oil is plummeting. They are 100% reliant upon imported food. What is their national debt going to look like? Who will be able to afford guest workers? What will happen if SA nationals are told they have to get a job?

Then look at Iran. Will this regime survive this fiasco?

Africa, Ethiopia, Yemmen, etc. North Korea?

And I still wonder about this virus in India. Why is it more or less immune? Or is that all smoke and mirrors?
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Re: Doom?

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 18 Mar 2020, 12:16:34

Popcorn time.

“Due to the confirmed case of #COVID19 from community spread, Salt Lake City Police Department is asking all criminal activities/nefarious behavior to cease until further notice,” the Utah capital’s law enforcement wrote in a tweet. “We appreciate your anticipated cooperation in halting crime & thank criminals in advance.”

“We will certainly let you know when you can resume your normal criminal behavior,” quipped the Blaine Police Department in Washington State.

.
.

https://www.foxnews.com/us/philadelphia ... oronavirus


Around 4 p.m. ET Monday, stocks for publicly-traded gun sellers American Outdoor Brands were up 5.46%, Sturm, Ruger & Co. had increased by 3.6% and Vista Outdoor had jumped by 7.86%, all while stocks on the broad market were dismal.
Background checks for gun purchases through the FBI system totaled 2.8 million nationally in February, a 36% jump compared to the same month in 2019— it’s the largest year-over-year percentage spike since 2016.
One Mesa, Arizona, gun store owner said he hasn’t seen sales this high since President Barack Obama was in office, and Kevin Lim, the owner of a tactical gear retailer told BuzzFeed News his sales have increased between 50% and 100% since the coronavirus outbreak started.
According to reports, recent gun sale increases in Washington State and California included larger-than-usual numbers of Asian-American customers, some saying they were concerned about racist backlash over the pandemic, which is believed to have originated in China.
Survival gear like military field rations, medical kits, ballistic body armor and tactical gear like flashlights, bulletproof vests and knives are also selling well.
Lines at a Los Angeles-area gun shop appeared to rival even those at grocery stores over the weekend.

.
. https://www.forbes.com/sites/carlieport ... e58aac4edd



Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s paramount leader, issued a written order last Thursday asking Maj. Gen. Mohammad Bagheri, the commander-in-chief of the Joint Armed Forces — an umbrella for the army, the Revolutionary Guards and security forces — to take charge.

While he told the military to work with the civilian government, Mr. Khamenei effectively authorized it to sideline Mr. Rouhani’s government if needed.
Image
“This rumor that in Tehran or other cities businesses and shops will be quarantined is not happening,” Mr. Rouhani said
“This rumor that in Tehran or other cities businesses and shops will be quarantined is not happening,” Mr. Rouhani saidCredit...Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times
Almost instantly the infighting and conflicting public messaging began.

In a closed meeting on Friday, the two sides clashed on strategy, according to four people with knowledge of the meeting.

ADVERTISEMENT
Continue reading the main story
Mr. Rouhani demanded that the armed forces adhere to his command. The generals refused and said Mr. Khamenei had authorized them to act independently

.
. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/worl ... uhani.html.
.
.
Families could face food rationing if shoppers don’t stop panic buying


.
. https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/15/supermar ... -12400000/





No one has a clue how this shit show will play out. There’s a 50% chance that more will die from related causes than from the virus itself.
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Re: Doom?

Unread postby Pops » Wed 18 Mar 2020, 13:14:38

Yeah, surprisingly no votes for "Pass the ammo" tho reports say AmmoRus sales are up biggly.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Doom?

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 18 Mar 2020, 14:27:16

Newfie wrote:Not doom, just a shot across the bow. Far worse is to come. Not necessarily for those here but for our kids.

Folks we know will die sooner. But it won’t wipe out 20% of the population or anything like that. Standard of living may go down, but that has its advantages. Taken over a long enough time frame this has a potential to be a net positive.

(He said sittin at a beach bar sucking coffee.) :-D


Historically speaking when the elderly die off suddenly from a wide spread academic the younger inheritors come out way ahead on the deal. When this took place in the middle ages the sudden increase in wealth among the survivors caused he blooming of the Renaissance. That was an extreme case and I don't expect anything like that this time around.

Scenario 1) if you are in your 50's and your parents are still alive they are at least likely to be in their 70's. Both Ma and Pa kettle catch Covid-19 and pass away leaving their combined wealth in your hands as heir. Then you and your probable siblings as a just post baby boomer member of the public split up that wealth 5 ways (based on average baby boomer family size).

Scenario 2) On the other hand what if you are a Next Gen post baby boomer with parents in their late 60's? Say you were born in the 1965-1974 period making you 55-45 years old and you have one or zero siblings? Average kids in this generation were 1.5 children i.e. half had 2 kids and half had 1 child. Now the equation changes a LOT especially if both you and spouse are only children and you lose all four parents (probably already lost one along the way so 3 more from Covid-19). Now you find your family blessed with two additional homes and/or IRA/Retirement investments passed down the line to yourself. Viola' suddenly you can sell off the two extra homes for half price and pay off all your debts giving you the financial flexibility to do lots of things, like buy Stocks, fully fund your own retirement plan, maybe pay off student loans for kids in their 30's who are themselves buried in debts so they can breath easier.

Scenario 3) You are a millennial. Grandparents who are still alive die of Covid-19. Your parents inherit. Maybe they are stingy and don't do anything for you but those cases will be rare as your parents are the helicopter generation who coddled you for the last 25-35 years. How they spend the money for their and your benefit is nebulous, but no matter how they spend it it is a stimulus to the economy through new manufactured goods, real-estate changing hands and so on and so forth. Maybe you are an only child, maybe one sibling. Parents might just give you Grandparents house as an inheritance, say on a land contract at a really low price cheaper than rent. Or they might join the Rentier class themselves and rent out grandparent houses. Either way your personal circumstances are vastly improved.

Scenario 4) Your parents have predeceased you, you have no kids and you are too old to start a new family at your age. You were off work for two months and you are financially strapped from hunkering down. You made it through because the government extended you assistance to get through the hump and now that things are hopping you feel unreasonable levels of gratitude to your politician of choice. The election is coming up in a month or two and you go out and campaign for your favorite candidate because you are tired of the isolation and canvassing the neighborhood for "Politician B" gives you lots of human contact. The people you meet are friendlier than they would be a year earlier because they also have been self isolating and welcome the chance to engage in human contact. You are not uber wealthy or even bumped up financially but you find a different kind of wealth in new human relationships because your generation is not tied to electronic devices.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: Doom?

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 18 Mar 2020, 15:39:46

Tanada,

Lots of ways this can spin out. And if you look abroad there will be many more. How they all come together and the effect us is anyone’s guess.

Like I mentioned elsewhere it will also help SS and Medicare but may hurt hospital futures. Potentially lots of heavy medical consumers disappearing.

I can’t figure it out, that’s for sure.
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Re: Doom?

Unread postby Pops » Wed 18 Mar 2020, 16:18:11

Scenario 5) people 15-64 believe they're immune so take little precaution, their infection rate rises and they find that even a lower rate x higher incidence equals many deaths.


For those aged 15 to 44, the fatality rate was 0.5%, though it might have been as low as 0.1% or as high as 1.3%. For people 45 to 64, the fatality rate was also 0.5%, with a possible low of 0.2% and a possible high of 1.1%. For those over 64, it was 2.7%, with a low and high estimate of 1.5% and 4.7%.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/low ... estimates/
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Re: Doom?

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 18 Mar 2020, 19:21:04

Pops,

I see so many different figures all over the place I find it hard to know what to believe. I saw another article, which I think was also from stat, that out the overall rate at 0.1% (IIRC) based on some extrapolation, normalized to a typical population, based on a cruise ship. That article was implying we are over reacting with the social distancing. Who knows.

Not to say it’s wrong, just that you can find almost any number you want if you dig enough. Rather un-nerving.
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Re: Doom?

Unread postby Pops » Thu 19 Mar 2020, 08:32:28

Newfie wrote:Not to say it’s wrong, just that you can find almost any number you want if you dig enough. Rather un-nerving.

Fog of war more or less, I guess.

But I wasn't pointing to any specific rate here, more that any rate in a significant segment of the population equals a large number, even younger people.
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Re: Doom?

Unread postby Ibon » Thu 19 Mar 2020, 08:38:59

Tanada wrote:Historically speaking when the elderly die off suddenly from a wide spread academic the younger inheritors come out way ahead on the deal.


Historically speaking this is true and will be again true regardless of how much the aging baby boomers believe that they are entitled to having it all ..... going from the cradle to the grave entitled to everything...

THat is the hallmark of the most decadent generation in the history of our species!
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Re: Doom?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 21 Mar 2020, 13:34:35

Cog wrote:I suppose the Dems are waiting for federal workers to come by a wipe their noses for them and feed their kids. LOL.

No we aren't doomed. Far from it.

Watching the Bernie Sanders calls re stupid letters to Amazon (which is already doing/paying far more than required, and hiring 100,000 more workers for crissakes), and calls for giant loads of helicopter money, economic nose wiping is already the usual call from the far left.

And don't get me wrong -- I'm all for getting some money to poor people for necessities like feeding the family. And I'd like that relief to come far faster than Washington will get it there. I'm also for free testing for those who are sick.

But as always, there needs to be some balance, since money doesn't grow on trees.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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