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When Will the Energy Revolution Change the Country's Look?

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When Will the Energy Revolution Change the Country's Look?

Unread postby evilgenius » Mon 20 Jan 2020, 18:41:39

The future looks electric. When will charging everything locally become important enough for the nation's (the US) electrical infrastructure to undergo a bulking up? Won't that bulking up, coming as it will along with all of the new technologies, change the very nature of the way we build?
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Re: When Will the Energy Revolution Change the Country's Loo

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 20 Jan 2020, 20:12:31

This is a thread that will really only become relevant in another 3-5 years when EVs start to get sold in larger numbers.

BTW, I saw a video today that China is already plowing ahead with battery swaps. They can do this because they have a car platform out there with a standardized battery form-factor. Expect to see a lot MORE innovation taking place in China than elsewhere just because when they decide to do something they just rush ahead and do it.

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Re: When Will the Energy Revolution Change the Country's Loo

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 22 Jan 2020, 14:20:49

asg70 wrote:BTW, I saw a video today that China is already plowing ahead with battery swaps. They can do this because they have a car platform out there with a standardized battery form-factor. Expect to see a lot MORE innovation taking place in China than elsewhere just because when they decide to do something they just rush ahead and do it.

Yup. Especially in tech, one thing the free market doesn't impose or even support, especially in early days, is common standards. For one thing, companies consider proprietary technology a "moat", helping bolster their market share, assuming they become one of the big players.

Computers are an obvious example of this. It took a long time before interfaces like USB became commonplace, due to user demand for the convenience. And even NOW, Apple is a blatant example of a major maker who shuns the otherwise nearly ubiquitous (and fantastic IMO) USB, to protect profits with their proprietary interfaces.

...

Of course, some outfits embraced this Wild West style competition and used overcoming it for some computing aspects to thrive. Adobe, re Acrobat / PDF for document portability is the obvious example to come to mind.

More recently, I notice how Windows friendly Linux OS variants make accessing Windows files completely transparent and automatic, via supporting many windows file types. (Seeing THAT convinced me they're finally getting serious, and could become a major player if Microsoft doesn't do something significant and reasonably cost effective for normal users about Windows 10 before it nears end of extended support (i.e. security fixes being provided) in Oct. 2025.)

But yes, this approach should let China be "miles ahead" for quite a few years, due to this policy.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: When Will the Energy Revolution Change the Country's Loo

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 23 Jan 2020, 04:19:41

evilgenius wrote:The future looks electric. When will charging everything locally become important enough for the nation's (the US) electrical infrastructure to undergo a bulking up? Won't that bulking up, coming as it will along with all of the new technologies, change the very nature of the way we build?

I care not where my renewable power is generated. Roof top panels in VT, Hydro on James Bay Canada or solar panels in Arizona. It is all the same when you flip the switch. Meanwhile back in Vermont they are installing multi acre PV panel installations on suitable sites all over the state so we are doing our part to go renewable.
Still going to need power from far off generation points in winter as we have months where the sun is low in the sky and it is cloudy sixty percent of the time.
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Re: When Will the Energy Revolution Change the Country's Loo

Unread postby EdwinSm » Thu 23 Jan 2020, 08:22:40

Maybe not quite what the OP had in mind, but the country side were I am is looking less cluttered as the major electricity cables have been buried. It will, however, take time for the forest to grow up under where the old power lines used to be.
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Re: When Will the Energy Revolution Change the Country's Loo

Unread postby evilgenius » Sun 26 Jan 2020, 12:45:23

EdwinSm wrote:Maybe not quite what the OP had in mind, but the country side were I am is looking less cluttered as the major electricity cables have been buried. It will, however, take time for the forest to grow up under where the old power lines used to be.
It is, if the new lines were extra burly. They'll need to be able to carry more current, if everyone is going to be recharging their electric cars at home. Which makes me wonder how many local governments will bury vs. run that much more mess on poles? Some places could look a real mess, in the coming decades.
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Re: When Will the Energy Revolution Change the Country's Loo

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 26 Jan 2020, 15:24:37

Don't mean to sound mean: but energy "revolution"? Obviously some one has never been involved in a true revolution. We haven't even seen a serious protest let alone a "revolution" IMHO.

As far as the Chinese battery swap outs that would truly be great...if they still weren't so heavily dependent on burning coal to produce electricity. More then half their power comes from coal fired plants with 43 GW built since the start of 2018 and another 121 GW currently under construction. And according to a state run agency another 1,200 to 1,400 needed for long term supply stability. The only big energy "revolution" in China is replacing old coal fired plants with new more efficient plants...that all still burn COAL.
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Re: When Will the Energy Revolution Change the Country's Loo

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 26 Jan 2020, 17:00:25

ROCKMAN wrote:Don't mean to sound mean: but energy "revolution"? Obviously some one has never been involved in a true revolution. We haven't even seen a serious protest let alone a "revolution" IMHO.

As far as the Chinese battery swap outs that would truly be great...if they still weren't so heavily dependent on burning coal to produce electricity. More then half their power comes from coal fired plants with 43 GW built since the start of 2018 and another 121 GW currently under construction. And according to a state run agency another 1,200 to 1,400 needed for long term supply stability. The only big energy "revolution" in China is replacing old coal fired plants with new more efficient plants...that all still burn COAL.

Maybe. But the batteries still have to be charged. Can they safely be rapidly swapped with some sort of damaging occurring only VERY rarely? How much swapping capacity needs to be in place to make in convenient "enough" for the masses to want to use it.

It's an interesting idea, but I think a lot would have to go right re simplicity, durability, etc. to make it realistic on a broad scale AND quick/convenient enough for folks to prefer over simply getting their battery charged at home or a public charger.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: When Will the Energy Revolution Change the Country's Loo

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 27 Jan 2020, 05:56:36

Revolutions in industry or science do not involve protests or violence just very rapid change.
I hope as EV sales continue in China and elsewhere that sufficient solar PV panels are installed to charge each years sales along with "powerwall" type batteries to allow moving power from daytime peak production to nighttime peak demand. No one buys an electric car hoping to drive it around under a cloud of coal smoke.
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Re: When Will the Energy Revolution Change the Country's Loo

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 27 Jan 2020, 11:54:58

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Can they safely be rapidly swapped with some sort of damaging occurring only VERY rarely?


One of the big benefits of battery-swaps is you no longer own any one battery. It's just a service. You're guaranteed a good battery. If the batteries wear out or break, then the company doing the swaps assumes responsibility for taking the old batteries out of service. On the flipside, if you own a car and its battery pack wears out (presumably out of warranty) it effectively destroys the entire car's value.

I'm not saying swaps are a panacea or anything, but that it offers more than just convenience.

Nissan has a program now for replacing old Leaf packs at a relatively affordable price. Obviously it's expensive but it provides an avenue to extend the lifecycle of older cars (despite the fact they don't have active thermal management and therefore wear out packs quickly). As EVs start aging and as battery chemistries keep improving I really do think there should be a way to replace packs. Car ownership is very much wrapped up in depreciation and resale value. The depreciation of EVs due to pack degradation is the dirty little secret of BEV ownership vs. ICE. So much is written about how EVs save money on no maintenance while ignoring pack degradation. If the automakers had a program from the start to repurpose/recycle/replace spent packs in a way that didn't place the entire financial burden on car buyers it would really help.

This is also, by extension, why some carmakers are proposing simply renting the car via a subscription plan rather than owning it.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-I'm glad Trump is in there now. I think we'll have a vaccine in a couple of months. (mmasters, 3/17/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: When Will the Energy Revolution Change the Country's Loo

Unread postby evilgenius » Mon 27 Jan 2020, 18:36:36

asg70 wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:Can they safely be rapidly swapped with some sort of damaging occurring only VERY rarely?


One of the big benefits of battery-swaps is you no longer own any one battery. It's just a service. You're guaranteed a good battery. If the batteries wear out or break, then the company doing the swaps assumes responsibility for taking the old batteries out of service. On the flipside, if you own a car and its battery pack wears out (presumably out of warranty) it effectively destroys the entire car's value.

I'm not saying swaps are a panacea or anything, but that it offers more than just convenience.

Nissan has a program now for replacing old Leaf packs at a relatively affordable price. Obviously it's expensive but it provides an avenue to extend the lifecycle of older cars (despite the fact they don't have active thermal management and therefore wear out packs quickly). As EVs start aging and as battery chemistries keep improving I really do think there should be a way to replace packs. Car ownership is very much wrapped up in depreciation and resale value. The depreciation of EVs due to pack degradation is the dirty little secret of BEV ownership vs. ICE. So much is written about how EVs save money on no maintenance while ignoring pack degradation. If the automakers had a program from the start to repurpose/recycle/replace spent packs in a way that didn't place the entire financial burden on car buyers it would really help.

This is also, by extension, why some carmakers are proposing simply renting the car via a subscription plan rather than owning it.


That's really cool. I wonder if car battery packs near end stage are useful for a business purpose? There could develop a market, based upon that need. If the service model can keep up with that, it could be seamless to keep a good battery in your car.
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Re: When Will the Energy Revolution Change the Country's Loo

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 28 Jan 2020, 05:49:57

evilgenius wrote: I wonder if car battery packs near end stage are useful for a business purpose? There could develop a market, based upon that need. If the service model can keep up with that, it could be seamless to keep a good battery in your car.

I would not be surprised if a car battery pack with some age on it was useful as a power wall type installation where charge rates and draw down rates were less severe then in a car set for ludicrous.
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Re: When Will the Energy Revolution Change the Country's Loo

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 31 Jan 2020, 03:54:26

asg70 wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:Can they safely be rapidly swapped with some sort of damaging occurring only VERY rarely?


One of the big benefits of battery-swaps is you no longer own any one battery. It's just a service. You're guaranteed a good battery. If the batteries wear out or break, then the company doing the swaps assumes responsibility for taking the old batteries out of service. On the flipside, if you own a car and its battery pack wears out (presumably out of warranty) it effectively destroys the entire car's value.

I'm not saying swaps are a panacea or anything, but that it offers more than just convenience.

Nissan has a program now for replacing old Leaf packs at a relatively affordable price. Obviously it's expensive but it provides an avenue to extend the lifecycle of older cars (despite the fact they don't have active thermal management and therefore wear out packs quickly). As EVs start aging and as battery chemistries keep improving I really do think there should be a way to replace packs. Car ownership is very much wrapped up in depreciation and resale value. The depreciation of EVs due to pack degradation is the dirty little secret of BEV ownership vs. ICE. So much is written about how EVs save money on no maintenance while ignoring pack degradation. If the automakers had a program from the start to repurpose/recycle/replace spent packs in a way that didn't place the entire financial burden on car buyers it would really help.

This is also, by extension, why some carmakers are proposing simply renting the car via a subscription plan rather than owning it.

Fair enough. I was interpreting the pack swap idea as something to replace charging for those who want/need that, vs. the idea of replacing batteries which degrade (which I would have thought would be what the battery warranty does -- assuming the manufacturer honors that consistently.

Certainly, one of the things making me want to wait on a BEV is exactly that risk, re the potential degrading battery. A warranty similar to Toyota's on the 2020 and on HEV's, where you get 10 years / 150,000 miles (previously, the CA only standard), that would at least be a good start, being sure one has a battery in reasonably good condition after 10 years.

As battery chemistry / longevity / durability improves, it should be easier for BEV makers to do this, and hopefully competitive pressures will force them ALL to step up with really solid replacement policies for batteries which don't measure up over time.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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