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Strange weather 2020

Strange weather 2020

Unread postby Tuike » Mon 13 Jan 2020, 03:47:45

This winter is super mild. Barely any sub zero C temps. I watched weather forecast from tv last evening and the meteorologist said the temperature is 10C above average. Climate change switched to turbo boost. 8O
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Re: Strange weather 2020

Unread postby nocar » Mon 13 Jan 2020, 04:31:19

The same in Stockholm, Sweden. No skiing or skating at all. Our local crosscountry skiing club has invested heavily in snow-making machines because natural snow has been scarce the last few years. But with no freezing temps the snowmachines are useless
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Re: Strange weather 2020

Unread postby waterpowerman1 » Mon 13 Jan 2020, 08:36:53

and yet 1/2 way around the globe Calgary is freezing in -20s & -30s which are 20 deg below normal.
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Re: Strange weather 2020

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 13 Jan 2020, 09:57:28

But this is exactly what CC predicts, it’s not about a uniform change but about disrupting the upper atmosphere circulation patterns. Destabilize the jet stream and let it wobble and there you go. That is what we are seeing.
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Re: Strange weather 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 13 Jan 2020, 12:00:30

But this is exactly what CC predicts, it’s not about a uniform change but about disrupting the upper atmosphere circulation patterns. Destabilize the jet stream and let it wobble and there you go. That is what we are seeing.


that is not something universally agreed upon. There are many papers that point to a complete lack of any evidence linking jet stream changes to global warming and others that try to show a link. Heres a relatively recent modeling study that shows there is not impact on the character of jet stream flow in a warming world

Jensen, A. et al, 2018. The dynamic character of Northern Hemisphere flow regimes in a near-term climate change projection. Atmosphere, 9(1), 27. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9010027

The dynamic character of an enstrophy-based diagnostic, previously used in the study of atmospheric blocking, is examined here, in near-term future simulations from the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace Climate Model version 4 (IPSL-CM4) and version 5 (IPSL-CM5) climate models of the Northern Hemisphere flow for moderate climate change scenarios. Previous research has shown that integrated regional enstrophy (IE) increases during blocking onset and decay, which is a reflection of planetary-scale instability. In addition, IE has been shown previously to increase during flow regime transitions in general, even those not associated with blocking events. Here, a 31-year IE diagnostic time series is examined for changes in short term (5–40 days) planetary-scale variability that may correspond flow regime changes in an increased carbon dioxide environment. The time-series analysis herein indicates that the IE diagnostic provides evidence for approximately 30–35 atmospheric flow regime transitions per year in a warmer climate, which is similar to that of the control run and the latest 30-year observed climate, as derived from re-analyses. This result has implications regarding the predictability of weather in a warmer world.


and yet 1/2 way around the globe Calgary is freezing in -20s & -30s which are 20 deg below normal.


it's weather and something you should expect in Calgary where wild fluctuations are the norm. There have been years with several weeks of -30C (or worse) in January (usually the coldest month) and years where January is relatively mild. There are years with really nasty February and March and years with very mild temperatures. But this point applies to the other areas that are experiencing mild weather. Without demonstrating a long term pattern this is not evidence of global warming, just weather...good or bad.
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Re: Strange weather 2020

Unread postby jawagord » Mon 13 Jan 2020, 12:14:19

Newfie I don't know how anyone, especially a Canadian could believe your comment unless they are a Micheal Mann disciple and totally deluded, look at the past weather history of Calgary. The current weather variability is the same as past weather variability before "climate change". Natural variability swamps any of man's influence on weather and climate.

From 2019's - last year's Calgary cold snap:

Most of southern and central Alberta remain under extreme cold warnings.

"Skies are forecast to clear tonight for many areas, especially over eastern and central regions, allowing temperatures to plummet," the agency said on its website.

There's nothing really new about it being super cold in Calgary this time of the year.

Here's a look back at how people in Calgary have endured — and enjoyed — our frigid winter weather as far back as the late 1800s.


https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/ ... -1.5014229
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Re: Strange weather 2020

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 13 Jan 2020, 12:22:27

Read a couple of hundred years of arctic exploration history.
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Re: Strange weather 2020

Unread postby yellowcanoe » Mon 13 Jan 2020, 13:45:15

jawagord wrote:Newfie I don't know how anyone, especially a Canadian could believe your comment unless they are a Micheal Mann disciple and totally deluded, look at the past weather history of Calgary. The current weather variability is the same as past weather variability before "climate change". Natural variability swamps any of man's influence on weather and climate.


You need to look at data over long enough periods to average out natural variability and identify any actual increase in average temperatures. David Phillips from Environment Canada did just that for Ottawa. He took weather records for the last 70 years and computed average daily high and average daily low for ten year periods. For the first four ten year periods there was no significant variation in the average highs and lows. For the last three ten year periods the average temperatures were consecutively higher. It only confirms what was becoming more and more obvious -- while we still get periods in the winter and early spring where temperatures are well below normal the general trend has been for temperatures to be higher. As a cross country skier I really notice the change -- I used to be able to get through the entire winter using waxable skis with some type of fresh snow hard wax. Now I use waxless skis almost all the time because the snow conditions are usually not ideal for waxing. It's a pretty dramatic change considering that for the first 20 or so years of my skiing career I didn't even own a pair of waxless skis!
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Re: Strange weather 2020

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 13 Jan 2020, 15:26:32

Tuike wrote:This winter is super mild. Barely any sub zero C temps. I watched weather forecast from tv last evening and the meteorologist said the temperature is 10C above average. Climate change switched to turbo boost. 8O

Except of course, that weather isn't climate.

If you don't know that, do some reading.

BTW, I'm a climate change alarmist, but data and the way it is represented matters.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Strange weather 2020

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 13 Jan 2020, 15:29:08

jawagord wrote:Newfie I don't know how anyone, especially a Canadian could believe your comment unless they are a Micheal Mann disciple and totally deluded, look at the past weather history of Calgary. The current weather variability is the same as past weather variability before "climate change". Natural variability swamps any of man's influence on weather and climate.

From 2019's - last year's Calgary cold snap:

Most of southern and central Alberta remain under extreme cold warnings.

"Skies are forecast to clear tonight for many areas, especially over eastern and central regions, allowing temperatures to plummet," the agency said on its website.

There's nothing really new about it being super cold in Calgary this time of the year.

Here's a look back at how people in Calgary have endured — and enjoyed — our frigid winter weather as far back as the late 1800s.


https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/ ... -1.5014229

Or, all he was saying is that there are counter-examples to "it's really warm around here recently".

But of course, for AGW deniers, twisting things is all you have.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Strange weather 2020

Unread postby jawagord » Mon 13 Jan 2020, 16:10:40

yellowcanoe wrote:
jawagord wrote:Newfie I don't know how anyone, especially a Canadian could believe your comment unless they are a Micheal Mann disciple and totally deluded, look at the past weather history of Calgary. The current weather variability is the same as past weather variability before "climate change". Natural variability swamps any of man's influence on weather and climate.


You need to look at data over long enough periods to average out natural variability and identify any actual increase in average temperatures. David Phillips from Environment Canada did just that for Ottawa. He took weather records for the last 70 years and computed average daily high and average daily low for ten year periods. For the first four ten year periods there was no significant variation in the average highs and lows. For the last three ten year periods the average temperatures were consecutively higher. It only confirms what was becoming more and more obvious -- while we still get periods in the winter and early spring where temperatures are well below normal the general trend has been for temperatures to be higher. As a cross country skier I really notice the change -- I used to be able to get through the entire winter using waxable skis with some type of fresh snow hard wax. Now I use waxless skis almost all the time because the snow conditions are usually not ideal for waxing. It's a pretty dramatic change considering that for the first 20 or so years of my skiing career I didn't even own a pair of waxless skis!


Canoe I'm trying to determine if your anecdotal stories are supporting Newfie's "climate change is distorting the Polar Vortex causing cold snaps" theory or deflecting away from it? Or is it Ottawa is getting warmer winters and also getting more cold snaps, the old have my cake and eat it to meme?

As an ex-skier I'm thinking waxless skis must be an improvement over the old waxmore skis, no more measuring snow temperatures and picking from a palette of wax colours?

....this is exactly what CC predicts, it’s not about a uniform change but about disrupting the upper atmosphere circulation patterns. Destabilize the jet stream and let it wobble and there you go.
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Re: Strange weather 2020

Unread postby yellowcanoe » Mon 13 Jan 2020, 21:21:21

jawagord wrote:
Canoe I'm trying to determine if your anecdotal stories are supporting Newfie's "climate change is distorting the Polar Vortex causing cold snaps" theory or deflecting away from it? Or is it Ottawa is getting warmer winters and also getting more cold snaps, the old have my cake and eat it to meme?


The last few years we have been getting an extended period of unusually cold weather in March/April resulting in a late spring. The jet stream seems to lock into a pattern where it forms a trough into eastern Canada and the NE US, directing cold arctic air into our area. The consensus appears to be that climate change is causing the jet stream to be more wobbly and to lock into position for long periods of time. Extreme cold weather at this time of year in Southern Alberta is certainly not unknown in the past but I think Western Canada has also seen periods in recent years where the jet stream has locked in place resulting in an unusually long period of cold weather.

jawagord wrote:As an ex-skier I'm thinking waxless skis must be an improvement over the old waxmore skis, no more measuring snow temperatures and picking from a palette of wax colours?


Waxable skis provide better performance than waxless skis and I am quite willing to take the time required to wax them if conditions are favourable. Another option is skate skiing as these only require a glide wax. Skate skiing used to be another option for me when waxing conditions for classical skis for difficult but at the age of 62 I'm not too keen on going skate skiing!
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Re: Strange weather 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 13 Jan 2020, 23:44:13

Extreme cold weather at this time of year in Southern Alberta is certainly not unknown in the past but I think Western Canada has also seen periods in recent years where the jet stream has locked in place resulting in an unusually long period of cold weather.


and those long cold periods were also around in the past. They move from month to month and some years there is nothing more than a couple of consecutive days but in the past it wasn't uncommon to see as much as 2 weeks of temperatures below -25 C (as a high) with nighttime temperatures dipping to -28 or -30 and windchill making it much, much colder.

And anecdotally I've not noticed a huge change in snow conditions in the Rockies. I still use wax for my cross country skiis as a lot of tracks set out here are still classic and not skate. Years ago I would take everything from super cold wax to klister with me and the last time I was out it was the same thing. Downhill skiing is also nothing unusual, this year is an amazing snowfall year for parts of BC whereas last year pretty much sucked but a couple years previous it was great. And the same pattern was happening back in the seventies. The fact of the matter is that any long term trend that anyone can tweak out of the data (especially after it is homogenized and adulterated beyond all recognition) results in changes that you would almost certainly not notice over time. Do you really notice a 1 degree change in temperature from day to day? Why would you recognize that over a decade any better?
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Re: Strange weather 2020

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 14 Jan 2020, 07:16:34

Jennifer Francis, a Rutgers meteorologist, is a researcher of Northern upper air patterns. She is very level headed, pragmatic, and not prone to exaggerate.

She describes climate change just as above, the inclination for patterns to lock into place and for the Rosby Waves (the deep troughs or “polar express”) to become stronger and deeper. We are seeing this both in North America and Europe.

When pressed about climate change, she says it is real and irreversible. But also finding it in the statistics is a lot like taking a 52!card deck and removing one card. You can find out the effect of that removal only after carefully studying many hands.
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Re: Strange weather 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 14 Jan 2020, 11:09:48

Jennifer Francis, a Rutgers meteorologist, is a researcher of Northern upper air patterns. She is very level headed, pragmatic, and not prone to exaggerate.


true, and Elizabeth Barnes who is an atmospheric scientist and professor at Colorado State has stated (in several publications) that the evidence for Francis' postulation is not there. According to pretty much everyone out there this is a controversial subject. Barnes is now investigating links between the Arctic and jet stream and trying to understand what all the interactions are including Madden-Julien oscillation. Definitely not settled science.

Barnes, E.A., 2013. Revisiting the evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in midlatitudes. Geoph Res Lett, 40 (17) 7117-7135

No significant decrease in planetary‐scale wave phase speeds are found except in October‐November‐December, but this trend is sensitive to the analysis parameters. Moreover, the frequency of blocking occurrence exhibits no significant increase in any season in any of the three reanalyses, further supporting the lack of trends in wave speed and meridional extent. This work highlights that observed trends in midlatitude weather patterns are complex and likely not simply understood in terms of Arctic amplification alone.


Barnes, E.A. and Screen, J.A., 2015. The impact of Arctic warming on the midlatitude jet-stream: Can it? Has it? Will it?. WIRES Climate Change, 6:277–286. doi: 10.1002/wcc.337

Synthesis
Whether recent Arctic surface warming and sea ice loss has significantly impacted the midlatitude jet-stream is still a topic of much debate. The weight of evidence suggests that if there has been Arctic influence on the midlatitude circulation to date, it has probably been small compared with internal atmospheric variability. It is our opinion that no study (or set of studies) has sufficiently demonstrated a significant Arcticinfluence on the jet-stream and that many alternative hypotheses exist that can account for the observed variability that are well supported by fundamental atmospheric dynamics theory and model experiments.
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Re: Strange weather 2020

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 14 Jan 2020, 14:18:49

Northwest Ohio has had a very mild winter this season with far more rain than snow. Today is January 14 and the ground has yet to form a solid frozen frost crust. Typically we would have frozen over in early December meaning this season is running five to six weeks behind average.
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Re: Strange weather 2020

Unread postby aspera » Tue 14 Jan 2020, 18:03:01

Tanada wrote:Northwest Ohio has had a very mild winter this season with far more rain than snow. Today is January 14 and the ground has yet to form a solid frozen frost crust. Typically we would have frozen over in early December meaning this season is running five to six weeks behind average.

Exact same conditions just north of you. Unusually warm and wet.

This isn't normal based on our own records going back 28 years. Recent years, seeing increased variation in temp and precip, with a steady warming over the years, earlier "last spring frost" but same "first fall frost." Our USDA zone changed from 5b to 6a.

Right now at sunset, WiFi soil thermometers report 41 degrees F out in open, and 48 degrees F in an unheated cold frame (with no sun for over a week). Lose a few of degrees in the out-in-the-open over-night; cold frame temperature stays astonishingly steady.

We've extended growing season on both ends, paying attention to changing patterns of rain/snow, soil freeze/thaw, hard frosts, etc. The real danger is when we get a multi-day warm spell in Feb or March that causes the fruit to blossom - then we'll lose the whole crop. Happened a few years ago. It's never been unusual to get a few early warm days, that's normal. But we're now seeing long stretches of serious warm up, followed by normal freezing temps.

Right now I have parsley green and healthy (normally frozen out by now. It's not growing but keeping just fine), b. sprouts and kale keeping well, and vit mache growing like mad. Root crops doing fine, but they always do well if mulched. Started new vit mache seeds in cold frame and out in open on Jan 1 (always experimenting!)- cold frame sprouted but need more sun if they're to thrive.
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