Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 18 Mar 2020, 12:23:37

The exploding global debt ratio to world GDP is a symptom of the EROEI decline.


Prove it.


In your case that would be like proving the value of an airplane to a garden slug. But for the rest of humanity (where the "prove it" one is excluded from that list):

Image


I have this weeks ETP-MAP price at $23.76 on it's way to $12.37 come the end of the year.


It may not make it that far; the end to the international exchange of petroleum may arrive first.
User avatar
shortonoil
False ETP Prophet
False ETP Prophet
 
Posts: 7136
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Baduila » Wed 18 Mar 2020, 14:50:18

Image

WTI at 20$/Barrel. Touches ETP-MAP.
Image Take care of the second law.
Baduila
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 114
Joined: Fri 26 Jun 2015, 12:44:17

Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 18 Mar 2020, 17:12:25

"It may not make it that far; the end to the international exchange of petroleum may arrive first."

Sen. Kevin Cramer

"Wrote a letter to POTUS DonaldTrump urging him to embargo crude oil from Russia, Saudi Arabia, and other OPEC nations."
Yoshua
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1971
Joined: Sat 28 May 2016, 06:45:42

Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 18 Mar 2020, 17:26:22

Yoshua
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1971
Joined: Sat 28 May 2016, 06:45:42

Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 23 Mar 2020, 06:14:09

Lower highs and lower lows, forming a falling wedge.

Traders regard this as a very bullish pattern.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETyJoQ0WAAA ... name=large
Yoshua
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1971
Joined: Sat 28 May 2016, 06:45:42

Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 25 Mar 2020, 15:43:00

It looks like the WTI price, and the MAP have intersected. How long will be before we hear of EXXON filing for bankruptcy? When the oil is gone, there isn't much remaining. All there is a bunch of politicians fighting over the crumbs while jockeying for position as the house burns down.

Image
User avatar
shortonoil
False ETP Prophet
False ETP Prophet
 
Posts: 7136
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 25 Mar 2020, 15:53:18

It looks like the WTI price, and the MAP have intersected. How long will be before we hear of EXXON filing for bankruptcy? When the oil is gone, there isn't much remaining.


Yeah, lets ignore the fact there is an oil war on which has increased supply to levels unheard of, lets forget we have a few months of shut down on airlines and other services that has a temporary impact on demand and then lets try to imagine it all has to do with the fairy tale you have been spinning here. :roll:
When the oil is gone? When exactly will that be genius? And the phrase "when the oil is gone, there isn't much remaining" is a bit like saying "you don't know where you are until you get there". I guess you missed that day at ESL.
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7684
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 03:00:00

Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 25 Mar 2020, 16:38:24

rockdoc123 wrote:
It looks like the WTI price, and the MAP have intersected. How long will be before we hear of EXXON filing for bankruptcy? When the oil is gone, there isn't much remaining.


Yeah, lets ignore the fact there is an oil war on which has increased supply to levels unheard of, lets forget we have a few months of shut down on airlines and other services that has a temporary impact on demand and then lets try to imagine it all has to do with the fairy tale you have been spinning here. :roll:
When the oil is gone? When exactly will that be genius? And the phrase "when the oil is gone, there isn't much remaining" is a bit like saying "you don't know where you are until you get there". I guess you missed that day at ESL.

Yeah lets ignore tge repurcussions of all this on Shale/fracking and what had been their already unprofitable fianances in this endeavor. And lets ignore the economic fallout of all this on Main St. and the consumer economy and workers or should I say the hordes of unemployed. Oh but I forgot the optimists fairly tales always end with and they lived happily ever after 8) :lol:
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
User avatar
onlooker
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 10959
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 13:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 25 Mar 2020, 17:56:07

Yeah lets ignore tge repurcussions of all this on Shale/fracking and what had been their already unprofitable fianances in this endeavor. And lets ignore the economic fallout of all this on Main St. and the consumer economy and workers or should I say the hordes of unemployed. Oh but I forgot the optimists fairly tales always end with and they lived happily ever after 8) :lol:


which had nothing whatsoever to do with the origins of this graph which were a means of justifying the ETP fantasy. As I point out the current situation (Covid and oil price war) have nothing to do with the premises postulated in the ETP nonsense. You can't be right for the wrong reasons.
And as I have pointed out numerous times in the past until such time as you are capable of reading a financial report from one of these companies you should refrain from commenting on their profitability. Understanding how free cash flow is calculated and what companies are doing with their revenues is key to understanding whether they were a going concern or not.
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7684
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 03:00:00

Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby BahamasEd » Mon 30 Mar 2020, 15:03:41

WTI price is at/below the MAP, the MAP price is around $12 at the end of this year. With oil prices this low and the coming depression, Once the currently producing oil wells run dry they will never be replaced because the economy will not be able to afford it.

The oil rig count has dropped 10% in the last two week, Down about 30% in the last year. I think it's going to zero from the current 624 working rigs in the USA.

I never could get my head around that the model said low prices would be what ended the oil age. But here we are, with all energy prices too low to spur new production because the end user can't pay a higher price at the margin.

There's still going to be oil (gasoline/diesel) around but more and more people are/will be priced out.

I have no idea what the future will look like, but it's not going to be anything like what happened between 1945 to 2020.
The total energy cost of producing and delivering a gallon of gasoline to the end consumer must be less than the energy in a gallon of gasoline for it to be commercially viable.
BahamasEd
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 280
Joined: Sun 17 Jul 2016, 20:44:57

Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 30 Mar 2020, 15:40:05

Texas Midland shale oil has dropped to $7 bbl.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUXptMxXQAQ ... name=large
Yoshua
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1971
Joined: Sat 28 May 2016, 06:45:42

Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Baduila » Mon 30 Mar 2020, 15:48:22

Bahamas,

it's a law of physics. The second law can't get violated.

https://limitstogrowth.de/wp-content/up ... _EN_09.pdf
Image Take care of the second law.
Baduila
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 114
Joined: Fri 26 Jun 2015, 12:44:17

Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby BahamasEd » Mon 30 Mar 2020, 18:32:17

Very good article, thanks
The total energy cost of producing and delivering a gallon of gasoline to the end consumer must be less than the energy in a gallon of gasoline for it to be commercially viable.
BahamasEd
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 280
Joined: Sun 17 Jul 2016, 20:44:57

Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 05 Apr 2020, 05:53:20

Europe has become the destroyer.

The destroyer of global trade.
The destroyer of oil demand.
The destroyer of the oil price.

The Euro has formed a Triangle of Doom.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ECzh1PcW4AE ... me=900x900

The Euro has followed the oil price and formed a Triangle of Doom just like the oil price...but for some strange reason didn't collapse with the oil price...as least not yet.
Yoshua
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1971
Joined: Sat 28 May 2016, 06:45:42

Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 05 Apr 2020, 10:25:08

BahamasEd wrote:I never could get my head around that the model said low prices would be what ended the oil age. But here we are


Sorry to burst your bubble but what's going on has nothing to do with ETP and its predictions. As long as there is oil demand, capital will flow in order to support drilling even if all of the fracking players had long gone tits up. It's only a matter of time. People generally don't like to be stuck in their homes forever. Economic activity will resume again and with that, more oil consumption, higher prices, etc...

BahamasEd wrote:I have no idea what the future will look like


You ain't kiddin'.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
asg70
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4291
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 14:17:28

Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Yoshua » Fri 10 Apr 2020, 05:14:05

OPEC + deal

"They agree to Adjust downwards their overall oil output by 10 mb/d, starting 1 May 2020, for an initial period of 2 months.

For the subsequent period from July to December 2020, an adjustment of 8 mb/d.

Followed by 6 mb/d of total for the period of Jan 2021 to April 2022."

One problem with the Etp Model's MAP curve is that the oil industry will go broke if the price follows the curve.

So, all kinds of interventions can be assured to follow to stop the price from falling: oil production cuts, QE, ZIRP, 1$T Repo, dollar swap lines, sanctions, war...
Yoshua
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1971
Joined: Sat 28 May 2016, 06:45:42

Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 10 Apr 2020, 10:22:51

Yoshua wrote:So, all kinds of interventions can be assured to follow to stop the price from falling: oil production cuts, QE, ZIRP, 1$T Repo, dollar swap lines, sanctions, war...


What makes you think QE and ZIRP is or would be instituted specifically to boost oil prices?

You have to stop with the whole correlation = causation fallacy. Just because something happens doesn't mean it's a direct consequence or was motivated by oil. This is especially true when it comes to oil demand tanking--due to coronavirus, not ETP.

The only thing the industry ever does to boost oil prices is the obvious...DRILL LESS.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
asg70
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4291
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 14:17:28

Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Yoshua » Fri 10 Apr 2020, 12:07:42

Drilling and pumping less leads to a peak oil problem and a contraction of the global economy.

OPEC+ started cutting production and last year we saw a contraction in global trade.

By printing money they can create artificial demand. Although it will lead to a debt problem down the road.

Today there's a demand shock due to the lockdown, that money printing can't do much about.

So, the producers are forced to do a massive production cut...while the central banks are printing money to keep the markets from crashing.
Yoshua
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1971
Joined: Sat 28 May 2016, 06:45:42

Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 10 Apr 2020, 13:07:45

Yoshua wrote:Drilling and pumping less leads to a peak oil problem and a contraction of the global economy.


You've got the sequence wrong. Coronavirus leads to a contraction of the economy which leads to drilling less. And "peak oil" isn't part of the mix in any conventional sense of the term.

Much to some people's chagrin, the economy does not rise and fall solely on the health of the oil industry. Last time we had a major glut and frackers were on the ropes the overall economy was doing quite well. Cheap oil actually provides a big boost to the economy by lowering cost of living and business overhead. It's frustrating to have to restate these obvious truths over and over.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
asg70
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4291
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 14:17:28

Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby sparky » Fri 10 Apr 2020, 15:31:07

.
The oil price , like a coin has two sides
producers supply their own internal market
that's the case for the US and Russia , what's left over is exported
they have a large and diversified economy
some like Saudi Arabia export most of their production
they have not much of an internal economy unrelated to oil export

for the former a low price is bad for their oil industry but good for the rest of their economy
for the later a low price is a unmitigated disaster
User avatar
sparky
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3586
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Sydney , OZ

PreviousNext

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 51 guests

cron