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MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Cog » Thu 06 Feb 2020, 10:28:05

This is why the Oil Drum board had to eventually close their doors. After a while the shark fin models blew up in their faces and it could not be denied that they had not a clue about depletion and drilling. I'm glad I was around to see it all unfold. I was banned from that board for suggesting politely that their models weren't based on anything resembling science.

We will eventually run out of economically exploitable Gas/Oil, but that day is well off into the future right now. I don't understand why that concept is so hard to understand for the fast crash doomers.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby StarvingLion » Thu 06 Feb 2020, 13:29:52

Cog wrote:This is why the Oil Drum board had to eventually close their doors. After a while the shark fin models blew up in their faces and it could not be denied that they had not a clue about depletion and drilling. I'm glad I was around to see it all unfold. I was banned from that board for suggesting politely that their models weren't based on anything resembling science.

We will eventually run out of economically exploitable Gas/Oil, but that day is well off into the future right now. I don't understand why that concept is so hard to understand for the fast crash doomers.


I guess Cog hasn't looked at the stock chart of Suncor and Exxon Mobil lately. They'll both be penny stocks within 1 year. Ford is almost already there.

The interesting question is why Cog won't invest in ANY Oil Company while blathering on about its continued good health.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby StarvingLion » Fri 07 Feb 2020, 13:23:09

I don't understand why that concept is so hard to understand for the fast crash doomers.


Cog, you better explain it to Aubrey Mcclendon the guy who ran Chesapeake which is now a 0.50 penny stock. Exxon Mobil is following CHK stock chart perfectly. Oh wait, Aubrey rammed his truck into a concrete wall. Thats him here inside his truck burning himself to a crisp. He killed himself not long after I started my account here. I guess he was reading my posts. He was a billionaire. Of course, he actually wasn't, he was flat broke with massive debt like everyone else. Just think, Cog, could have saved his life if only Aubrey had known about the endless prosperity of money printing that is making oil/gas recovery "economic" today.

Aubrey McClendon - Wikipedia
Aubrey Kerr McClendon (July 14, 1959 – March 2, 2016) was an American businessman and the founder and chief executive officer of American Energy ...
Cause of death‎: ‎Single-vehicle crash
Born‎: ‎Aubrey Kerr McClendon; July 14, 1959; ...
Died‎: ‎March 2, 2016 (aged 56); Oklahoma City, ...

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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 18 Feb 2020, 12:46:24

"Sanctions

U.S. OFFICIALS SAY TUESDAY'S MOVE TO SANCTION ROSNEFT TRADING SA IS THE FIRST IN A CAMPAIGN, AND THERE WILL BE FURTHER STEPS

SENIOR U.S. OFFICIALS SAY SUBSIDIARY ROSNEFT TRADING SA HAS PROPPED UP THE VENEZUELAN OIL SECTOR, ACTIVELY ATTEMPTED TO EVADE U.S. SANCTIONS

U.S. ALLOWS ENTITIES UNTIL MAY 20 TO WIND DOWN BUSINESS WITH ROSNEFT TRADING SA U.S. TREASURY"

Venezuela, Iran and now Russia?

Does this mean that Europe can't buy oil from Rosneft anymore?
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 19 Feb 2020, 14:01:32

marmico wrote:
Gail Tverberg is a perma-doomer idiot.


Tverberg is a nutter. She may have finished top of the class in her 1964 high school graduating year in home economics, but so what.

Her January 2014 energy production consumption forecast is beyond abysmal.

Image

And notice how for the doomers, the supposed peak is ALWAYS just after the forecast.

If they were 10% as good at actually forecasting as moving their chart shape to the right (AKA revising the dates) and pretending their forecasts had ANY merit, they might actually have something meaningful to say, re future energy prices.

As it is, NOT SO MUCH.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 19 Feb 2020, 14:05:16

Yoshua wrote:"Sanctions

U.S. OFFICIALS SAY TUESDAY'S MOVE TO SANCTION ROSNEFT TRADING SA IS THE FIRST IN A CAMPAIGN, AND THERE WILL BE FURTHER STEPS

SENIOR U.S. OFFICIALS SAY SUBSIDIARY ROSNEFT TRADING SA HAS PROPPED UP THE VENEZUELAN OIL SECTOR, ACTIVELY ATTEMPTED TO EVADE U.S. SANCTIONS

U.S. ALLOWS ENTITIES UNTIL MAY 20 TO WIND DOWN BUSINESS WITH ROSNEFT TRADING SA U.S. TREASURY"

Venezuela, Iran and now Russia?

Does this mean that Europe can't buy oil from Rosneft anymore?

It means the US doesn't want to see allies making direct purchases. The thing is, over time, that oil (adjusted for grade) is fungible, and it will trickle out to the market anyway, after some diversion re intermediate sales, etc. The potential profits won't be ignored over time.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 23 Feb 2020, 11:29:13

The WTI didn't breakdown from its support line. It bounced off it.

Magic.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ERS_s13XkAA ... name=large
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 23 Feb 2020, 13:58:27

shortonoil wrote:
Old shorty and his doom crew still trying to breathe life into this dead horse of a theory. Comical.


Rather glib for someone facing a world pandemic of previously unknown historical proportions. We are all so amused. Still having trouble connecting the dots? It's true; there is no substitute for blatant stupidity.

WTI now $50.18. With the CDC now preparing the US for a 2019-nCov pandemic the price is likely to be below $40 in days.

Just a reminder of what shorty posted re oil prices on Feb 3rd on this thread. So WTI, instead of being BELOW $40, is now above $53. Oh, and the low was about 50 cents below where he was braying about it going into the thirties.

But of course, we should all listen to him, as he has endless nonsense to spew, along with predictions. Too bad they're so rarely correct. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 23 Feb 2020, 14:31:03

Outcast_Searcher wrote:But of course, we should all listen to him, as he has endless nonsense to spew, along with predictions. Too bad they're so rarely correct. :roll:

As Shorty is so consistently wrong one could short Shortie's positions and do pretty well year in and year out. :)
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Cog » Sun 23 Feb 2020, 16:23:59

vtsnowedin wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:But of course, we should all listen to him, as he has endless nonsense to spew, along with predictions. Too bad they're so rarely correct. :roll:

As Shorty is so consistently wrong one could short Shortie's positions and do pretty well year in and year out. :)


Curse your honesty. Now you have given away my investment strategy for free. :badgrin:
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 23 Feb 2020, 23:50:10

Yoshua wrote:The WTI didn't breakdown from its support line. It bounced off it.
Magic.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ERS_s13XkAA ... name=large


How does the chart movement have any significance whatsoever other than in your own imagination?

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Cog » Mon 24 Feb 2020, 01:32:04

Doomers think charts not only predict future events but constrain future events. There is literally no reasoning with them on this issue.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 24 Feb 2020, 12:27:46

BTW, Yoshua, I can connect the dots too. What do all these lines mean? Nothing.

Image

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 25 Feb 2020, 06:36:16

Wow!

That's a busy chart. I like them simple.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 25 Feb 2020, 11:03:23

Yoshua wrote:Wow!
That's a busy chart. I like them simple.


Failed to grasp the point again. How shocking.

My point is that you are choosing your own points to connect to draw lines on the chart while avoiding others. In order to make sense of the chart you have to factor in ALL chart movement and the reasons behind it, not merely drawing deliberately self-serving lines. This also goes for how wide a time-window you select for your analysis (a real vulnerability with ETP in general).

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Cog » Tue 25 Feb 2020, 11:45:50

Charts can show trends which are useful for making trading decisions. But judgement, analysis, and just studying a stock will tell you much more. If there was a thing called a perfect chart, that could predict the future, some investor would have already created it and used it to make trillions.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 25 Feb 2020, 12:40:34

Technical charts are based on magic.

One trader drew this line on a monthly S&P 500 chart and expected a correction.

Magic.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ERoiNvaW4AA ... name=large
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 25 Feb 2020, 14:52:27

Yoshua wrote:Technical charts are based on magic.

One trader drew this line on a monthly S&P 500 chart and expected a correction.

Magic.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ERoiNvaW4AA ... name=large

So since you concede this, why are you frequently using references to charts and predicting future prices (and being wrong a LOT)? :?:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 25 Feb 2020, 14:58:30

Cog wrote:Charts can show trends which are useful for making trading decisions.

Yes, they can show trends. But there's no evidence that after the expense of trading, they tell enough about future trends to be actionable.

For example, there's a reason that the Elliot Wave theorists (who are ALL about charts) have an absolutely abysmal long term track record, and it's CLEARLY not that their charts help them time the market well.

With the stock market, all the data on active vs. passive mutual funds, and how strongly the passive funds outperform the active funds over time (including expenses) provides a huge amount of confirmation data on this.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Cog » Tue 25 Feb 2020, 16:09:41

This is more or less what I told a broker who offered to manage my portfolio for a fee. Managed portfolios do no better than buying index funds and letting it ride. Now I prefer the action of individual stocks of my own choosing but I prefer slightly more risk. It's usually worked for me with the exception of GE. Dividends are nice and usually predictable.
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