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MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 04 Feb 2020, 15:43:51

China is a ghost town right now. Their actions are telling that this is really Bab. No one knows when or if the the factories will open again.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Baduila » Tue 04 Feb 2020, 16:28:05

The finnish government is a follower of ETP:

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/8848 ... a-meltdown

Government Agency Warns Global Oil Industry Is on the Brink of a Meltdown
We are not running out of oil, but it's becoming uneconomical to exploit it—another reason we need to move to renewables as quickly as possible.

Right now, though, “no one is preparing for this,” said Hagens. “Not only are we speeding, but we are wearing energy blind-folds at the same time. But the momentum of our current system forces us to have conversations about a bigger system not a smaller one—so the correct and valid plans and blueprints are not discussed… It is a perfect storm—and when the waters recede we are going to have smaller, simpler and more local, regional economies.”
Image Take care of the second law.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 04 Feb 2020, 17:30:32

The finnish government is a follower of ETP:


The report was delivered to 10 different "Ministries of Energy" The first one was delivered to Kuwait. It was a physical copy handed across a desk. How the Ukrainians got a copy; I haven't a clue? Security Agencies run the world. Anything that might threaten their security is closely scrutinized. A mathematical approach to petroleum depletion fascinated them. But this virus negates those worries.

Hyundai, Kia Factories Crippled In South Korea As Part Suppliers In China Remain Closed
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hyund ... main-close

Yonhap News reports that Hyundai Motor Co. and its sister Kia Motors Corp. suspended production lines in South Korea after it was hit with a parts shortage from China as the coronavirus outbreak continues to leave entire manufacturing hubs shut down.


How much is China going to produce when its workers are dying on their production lines? This virus has just begun its expansion; it has 1 billion remaining Chinese to pray upon. Parts will become critically short in factories all over the world in a couple of weeks. Manufactures depend on JIT, and often that is measured in hours. Closures will follow the same exponential growth as the virus itself. The next, and last Great Depression is already here, and China is as sick as its pigs. That can only continue to be hidden from public view for a few more days.


Gordon Chang: Chinese authorities are falsifying the death toll from Coronavirus
https://saraacarter.com/gordon-chang-ch ... ronavirus/

“So really what we are having right now is, they are completely overwhelmed,” Chang added. “They are not able to keep accurate statistics. So what we are witnessing is essentially a breakdown in government and keeping accurate statistics is a very minor part of their priorities right now.

“This is only going to get worse,” Chang concluded, adding the virus will likely not be contained until “April or May.”

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science ... ly-cluster

A lot of Americans will be experiencing a serve flue, but few will die. As with the flue in general. The virus's feeding frenzy will run out before it runs out of Chinese.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Cog » Tue 04 Feb 2020, 20:10:50

Can't sell your ETP report anymore can you? Bankrupt again much like you welsh on bets.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 05 Feb 2020, 04:31:02

Baduila wrote:The finnish government is a follower of ETP:

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/8848 ... a-meltdown

Government Agency Warns Global Oil Industry Is on the Brink of a Meltdown
We are not running out of oil, but it's becoming uneconomical to exploit it—another reason we need to move to renewables as quickly as possible.

Right now, though, “no one is preparing for this,” said Hagens. “Not only are we speeding, but we are wearing energy blind-folds at the same time. But the momentum of our current system forces us to have conversations about a bigger system not a smaller one—so the correct and valid plans and blueprints are not discussed… It is a perfect storm—and when the waters recede we are going to have smaller, simpler and more local, regional economies.”


"The peer-reviewed report calls for the European Commission to consider oil as the world’s most important "critical raw material." Despite offering a scathing critique of conventional peak oil theory, the report arrives at the shock conclusion that the economic viability of the entire global oil market could come undone within the next few years.

Oil, oil everywhere, too costly to drill

The plateauing of conventional crude oil production in January 2005 was one of the triggers of events leading to the 2008 global financial crash, according to the report. As debt built-up in the subprime mortgage sector, the crude oil plateau drove up the underlying energy costs for the entire economy making that debt more difficult to repay—and eventually resulting in catastrophic defaults. The report warns that “unresolved” dynamics in the global energy system were only temporarily relieved due to "Quantitative Easing"—the creation of new money by central banks. A correction is now overdue, it warns."

This is basically exactly what shortonoil has been saying.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Cog » Wed 05 Feb 2020, 06:22:18

Shorty says a lot of things. Like making a wager then welshing on it.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby tita » Wed 05 Feb 2020, 06:23:42

The finnish government is a follower of ETP:


NO! This is the work of one person (Simon Michaux), which joined GTK in may 2018.

This report make a lot of postulates over the economic relations of oil and financial markets. The whole report is roughly a synthesis of all the peak oil debate from the peak oil perspective. So, nothing really new, the author is not an economist and is not even an oil&gas geologist. There is no science here, just philosophical thoughts on the same sources we're already following (AIE, BP, Rystad).

Of course, it shares the general postulates of ETP, but it has nothing to do with the pseudo-physico-economico-mathematical bullshit that the ETP folks have been feeding at nauseam on this forum.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 05 Feb 2020, 07:22:28

Simon Michaux

"Dr Simon Michaux has a Bach App Sc in Physics and Geology and a PhD in mining engineering. He has worked in the mining industry for 18 years in various capacities. He has worked in industry funded mining research, coal exploration and in the commercial sector in an engineering company as a consultant. Areas of technical interest have been: Geometallurgy; mineral processing in comminution, flotation and leaching; blasting; mining geology; geophysics; feasibility studies; mining investment; and industrial sustainability."

His report looks at oil extraction from an economic point of view and how the rising economic cost to extract oil affects the oil industry and the global economy and monetary policy.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Cog » Wed 05 Feb 2020, 09:32:25

So an expert in mining is now an expert in oil exploration and development? Geez I should be an expert in nuclear engineering by that standard.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 05 Feb 2020, 09:59:07

So an expert in mining is now an expert in oil exploration and development? Geez I should be an expert in nuclear engineering by that standard.


You might be an expert in dog turd removal. Other than that, your options are limited. Nuclear engineers have gotten past counting; 1,2.3, many.

His report looks at oil extraction from an economic point of view and how the rising economic cost to extract oil affects the oil industry and the global economy and monetary policy.


Like to see it, have you got a link? From an energy point of view we have just about run the gambit; from a price perspective about $10 should break the industry. Beyond that oil becomes a welfare case.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 05 Feb 2020, 11:32:19

There's a link to the report in this article

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/8848 ... a-meltdown
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Cog » Wed 05 Feb 2020, 11:48:27

Shorty is now predicting $10/ bbl oil. I can't wait to ridicule this latest prediction.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 05 Feb 2020, 13:27:24

It didn't take long to skim through the report to see that it is merely a consolidated digest of the usual perma-doomer suspects (like Gail at ourfiniteworld). So there's nothing new to see here.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 05 Feb 2020, 14:23:04

Gail Tverberg is indeed mentioned in the report. I now hear that Gail had a huge impact on the report.

"the author of the report sent me an early version of the report to review. The earlier version was written from a very standard, “We will run out of oil and prices will explode,” point of view. I corresponded with him and convinced him that this was not really the way things worked.

He then rewrote the report in its current version." Gail Tverberg
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Cog » Wed 05 Feb 2020, 14:26:58

Gail Tverberg is a perma-doomer idiot.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 05 Feb 2020, 14:54:30

From shorty: "A lot of Americans will be experiencing a serve flue, but few will die. As with the flue in general. The virus's feeding frenzy will run out before it runs out of Chinese."

Always amazing to see the crap some folks put out when it takes just a few mouse clicks to prove just how crappy thier statement is:

"An estimated 80,000 Americans died of flu and its complications last winter — the disease's highest death toll in at least four decades. The director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dr. Robert Redfield, revealed the total in an interview Tuesday night with The Associated Press."
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby jawagord » Wed 05 Feb 2020, 15:24:39

Yoshua wrote:Simon Michaux

"Dr Simon Michaux has a Bach App Sc in Physics and Geology and a PhD in mining engineering. He has worked in the mining industry for 18 years in various capacities. He has worked in industry funded mining research, coal exploration and in the commercial sector in an engineering company as a consultant. Areas of technical interest have been: Geometallurgy; mineral processing in comminution, flotation and leaching; blasting; mining geology; geophysics; feasibility studies; mining investment; and industrial sustainability."

His report looks at oil extraction from an economic point of view and how the rising economic cost to extract oil affects the oil industry and the global economy and monetary policy.


Seems like there’s a big sweet spot here for continued expansion of both oil production and the economy.

The current economic system cannot sustain oil prices above $100 a barrel and keep growing, while producers for most new fields cannot sustain profits at prices as low as $45 a barrel without more borrowing.
Don't deny the peak!
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 05 Feb 2020, 17:10:57

Cog wrote:Shorty is now predicting $10/ bbl oil. I can't wait to ridicule this latest prediction.

Nothing new though (although he'd like us to forget).

His BAU MAP was predicting $2ish WTI at the end of 2021 and $13ish WTI at the end of 2020, and 27$ish oil at the end of 2019 (already an epic FAIL).

Basically, every topic he blathers about, he spouts nonsense and his forecasts of doom are proven woefully wrong.

Not that this stops him from endlessly blathering on.

No doubt, we'll now be regaled with kindergarten level insults by him now, as if that makes his constant drivel credible. :!: :roll:

But hey, that's ALL he's got.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 05 Feb 2020, 18:12:57

This may be ill-advised but I'm wondering whether short would accept another bet, only instead of having to pay money he agrees to leave the site forever? The mods would have to agree to perma-ban him to ensure compliance.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby marmico » Thu 06 Feb 2020, 07:37:37

Gail Tverberg is a perma-doomer idiot.


Tverberg is a nutter. She may have finished top of the class in her 1964 high school graduating year in home economics, but so what.

Her January 2014 energy production consumption forecast is beyond abysmal.

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