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MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 29 Jan 2020, 19:26:06

Here are the results from the latest study on nCOV. It is interesting to note that the first patient that died had no contact with the Market. How he contracted the virus is unknown. It would be interesting to know if he had contact with the Wuhan Level 4 bio lab? The first group of 41 patients admitted to the hospital had a mortality rate of 15%. The next group of 794 had a mortality rate of 2.4%. Statistically these are separate populations. If the decline in mortality continues to fall, in a month the virus will have become nonlethal; if this is a linear relationship. A global pandemic of 2019-nCOv is looking less likely.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... 40-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 29 Jan 2020, 20:24:09

Reporters Claim To Have Proof China Lying About Virus Death Toll As Total Cases Soar Above 7,100
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... iddle-east

"Several epidemiologists have suggested that many of the deaths caused by the coronavirus that surfaced in Wuhan last month have probably 'slipped through the cracks' - either having been misdiagnosed or deliberately attributed to something else. Many suspect that Beijing is concealing the true extent of the outbreak. And now, one reporter claims that a Chinese media organization has found proof."


"Meanwhile, research published in the Lancet, a medical journal, claimed the true mortality rate is closer to 11% (the official rate is 2%-3%).


If true; Opps 11%; it is time to pick up a few more bottles of vodka. I came up with 2.4% using their data. Staying away from humans may become the new survival mechanism. Is it time to finally quite smoking? At 11% the CCP is looking at a revolution. The army will join the middle class. We may be witnessing the complete, total collapse of modern day China!

Five million supposedly escaped Wuhan; where did they go, and what did they pack into their luggage? One cockroach, two flies, and a whole bunch of little ones. Viruses fit into that category. This stuff is all over China, in days will be deaths by the Millions.

So we have a toss up. Who is lying the US Press, or China? 2.4% or 11%?
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 30 Jan 2020, 09:24:32

The spammers are back to destroy communications. Convenient; just what we need during a growing global pandemic! 2019-nCOV appears to being going rampant around the world. Most of the world's nations are shutting their borders! It has been found that children can act as fast spreaders (people who are contagious but display no symptoms] which makes containment impossible. If the Chinese have been lying about their death rate, and it appears that they have been, the situation has become dire. 97.8% of the confirmed cases have been in China, but this will sweep through out all of Asia with lighting speed. Africa looks to become a grave yard.

At best, supply lines will fail, and the economy will crash. Full recovery, even if a successful treatment is soon found, will never occur. An unstoppable, fast spreading epidemic happening on an already bankrupt planet, will be a world changing event. Once the fear level reaches a certain level social breakdown is sure to soon follow. Following the curve the death rate will peak out at 672,000. That is from a plotted curve from unreliable data; anything can happen.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 30 Jan 2020, 12:39:17

"I'm In An Apocalypse" - New Accounts From Wuhan Detail Coronavirus Outbreak
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... s-outbreak

Late last week, a Wuhan nurse made an emotional video on social media, claiming more than 90,000 have already been infected.


The data presented below may not be accurate; use with caution: It is an extrapolation from data that has not been confirmed!!!!!!! But, it is the best that is available at his time.

According to our graphs, that are based on published Chinese data, and curve forms extracted from previous SARS, and MERS epidemics, there could be at this point in time over several million infected. The number of those who are infected, and that will display symptoms, or die is totally unknown.

This data is presented here exclusively to demonstrate the potential seriousness of this epidemic. Many unknown quantities could be contributing too, or hindering the spread of this disease. The next 10 days will fully demonstrate its destructive potential. Let's prepare for the worst, and pray for the best.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 30 Jan 2020, 15:21:08

The good news is that if you contract the disease out side of China you are going to survive. With 116 cases outside of China, none of them have died. If they had gotten sick in Huhan 3 of them would now be dead. Funny how this virus has a taste for Chinese? When China collapses the rest of the world is going to feel the crunch! Someone, with more money than brains, is going to want a TV. SE Asia is out of business because China went broke, and no one is making one. Bet the Americans figure out how to again make a TV. Modern civilization will live on without "Made in China" stamped on it.

The damn fools on Wall Street put a whole pile of money on China. Maybe they will get 10¢ on the dollar of it back? America's oligarchs are going on a strict diet. No more free bird's nest soup with noodles. The wailing and nashing of teeth is going to be terrible!

If we can solve this oil problem, we would be half way there? Looks like we are going to get part of it remedied.

Image
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Yoshua » Sat 01 Feb 2020, 14:00:28

The WTI broke down the "Mother of all Triangles of Doom".

It has started.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 01 Feb 2020, 15:09:54

Yoshua wrote:The WTI broke down the "Mother of all Triangles of Doom".

It has started.


"It" meaning what?

If you're gonna lay down a prediction, offer some detail so I can throw it in my sig.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Baduila » Sat 01 Feb 2020, 15:24:17

Image

Here it is. Up to now, OPEC+ will have no problems to reduce the production to stabilise the price.
Image Take care of the second law.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 02 Feb 2020, 14:49:24

Copper is sitting right above its multi year support line.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EPpJvY1WoAQ ... name=large

China counts for 50% of global demand and its manufacturing is now shut down.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 02 Feb 2020, 17:07:41

Thai Doctors "Cure" Coronavirus Patient Using Powerful AIDS Drugs
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... aids-drugs

The entire world is beginning to discover that there was a monkey in the wood pile. Too little, to late to save China. There are over 2 million infected in the Wuhan area alone. All the world's inventories couldn't supply the needed AIDS medication, and it could take weeks to get the medication to the patients. China has a good until date stamped on it of about March 1; then supply chains collapse, and factories all over the world begin to shut their doors. Many, forever, because they were zombies before it began.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Cog » Sun 02 Feb 2020, 19:33:30

Old shorty and his doom crew still trying to breathe life into this dead horse of a theory. Comical.

Course the standard zerohedge links is par for the course. I wonder if they know how much laughter is going on behind their backs.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 03 Feb 2020, 15:52:55

Old shorty and his doom crew still trying to breathe life into this dead horse of a theory. Comical.


Rather glib for someone facing a world pandemic of previously unknown historical proportions. We are all so amused. Still having trouble connecting the dots? It's true; there is no substitute for blatant stupidity.

WTI now $50.18. With the CDC now preparing the US for a 2019-nCov pandemic the price is likely to be below $40 in days. Infection rates are likely to pass 25,000 in 7 days. Symptoms will begin to appear in large numbers in another 3 to 7. If this virus follows the pattern it set in China the country will be under quarantine in a month.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 03 Feb 2020, 19:54:02

shortonoil wrote:
Old shorty and his doom crew still trying to breathe life into this dead horse of a theory. Comical.


Rather glib for someone facing a world pandemic of previously unknown historical proportions. We are all so amused. Still having trouble connecting the dots? It's true; there is no substitute for blatant stupidity.

WTI now $50.18. With the CDC now preparing the US for a 2019-nCov pandemic the price is likely to be below $40 in days. Infection rates are likely to pass 25,000 in 7 days. Symptoms will begin to appear in large numbers in another 3 to 7. If this virus follows the pattern it set in China the country will be under quarantine in a month.

In the real world, while certainly more than the number of confirmed cases exist, there is nothing but the usual empty doomer arm waving re 2 million cases at this point.

Oh, and since many of the cases are likely not being reported by being so mild, that makes the likely chance of dying meaningfully lower.

And unlike lip flappers like you, serious medical experts are optimistic about being able to control this in places like the US, with good medical care.

Oh, and if it's not much of an issue in the US, so much for the theory that oil will just collapse in price.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/03/nih-dr- ... rious.html

But heaven forbid anyone look at the overall news in a balanced way, instead of hysterically bleating about doom at every turn.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 03 Feb 2020, 22:05:46

The CDC estimates that from Oct 1, 2019 to January 25th, 2020 there were 19,000,000 to 26,000,000 flu related illnesses, 180,000 – 310,000 flu hospitalizations and 10,000 – 25,000 flu deaths in the US.

For this week alone the US is seeing widespread reports of influenza in every state with the exception of Hawaii and D.C. (local activity) and the Virgin Islands (sporadic reports). This compares to 5 states which have reported occurrence of nCoV.

Compare this with 20,209 confirmed reports of nCoV from Jan 1 worldwide, 426 deaths.
There are between 235 and 321 times as many cases of flu on a monthly basis comparing just the US with world. Give there are now 11 cases in the US that means on a monthly basis in just the US there are ~ 43,000 to ~59,000 times more flu cases in the US than nCoV. And there are zero deaths related to nCoV in the US versus a monthly 2500 – 6250 death rate related to flu.

I do not see a lot of panic about influenza in the press or here for some reason. I guess it isn’t scary enough, or Shortonoil can't speculate about a biological weapons lab :roll:
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 04 Feb 2020, 05:29:46

China's shut down affects 69% of its GDP.

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/arti ... ssion=true
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Cog » Tue 04 Feb 2020, 05:47:00

Couple of weeks, month or two at the top, we will have moved on to another doom that is going to kill us all.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 04 Feb 2020, 10:06:30

France evacuated 256 individuals from Wuhan and 39 of them showed symptoms of the coronavirus...or 15% of them.

Wuhan has a population of 11 million if 15% of them are infected...

China is definitely lying and hiding the truth.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/wo ... s-12385188
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 04 Feb 2020, 13:52:01

France evacuated 256 individuals from Wuhan and 39 of them showed symptoms of the coronavirus...or 15% of them.

Wuhan has a population of 11 million if 15% of them are infected...

China is definitely lying and hiding the truth.


As Rock and company go through their pre-prepared list of really stupid things to say, the Chinese are dying by the train loads. Compromised immune systems from living on a hazardous waste dump could do that to a person, especially if they have a habit of misplacing their best bio-weapons. The West is likely to fair a little bit better just for the simple reason that its governments don't actively support dumping their industrial wastes into the water supply. To do that in the US you have to be fracking company, and they are rapidly becoming an endangered species

We can tell how well things are going in China by the head count of the local bureaucrats that Li has disappeared. We are only up to 700 to date, so China still a a little way to go. In a couple more weeks when US supply chains begin to break, Kudlow can then state that he never imagined that the Chinese could have been lying to him. Of course, Larry was never a predictive type of guy. At least none that anyone followed, and made any money at.

With the CDC now playing the part of the only adult in the room, the stock market is running rampant. Computers don't catch 2019-nCoV so there is no limit to the up side. With over $300 trillion in debt, when a real human gets sick from the virus, and stumbling kicks out their plug; the lights will fade away. Someone needs to make plans for holding the next Presidential election by candle light. The only ones showing up at he poles will be wearing HazMat suits, and carrying flash lights.

By the way, they will have one (an election, that is): it will be called "Congress in Session". We are getting closer to a modern day Rome every day. The Democrats need one more lineup in their parade of Presidential Proponents: to fill the void they need a gay transvestite! They can then schedule another operation for the recuperation of their political body.

Paging Dr. Frankenstein in surgery??
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 04 Feb 2020, 14:25:56

As Rock and company go through their pre-prepared list of really stupid things to say, the Chinese are dying by the train loads.


OHHH, my side hurts from laughing so hard. A really stupid thing to say is "the Chinese are dying by the train loads" when in fact a typical Chinese fast train carries 526 passengers and the death toll is 427....not even a single load, let alone loads. :roll:

France evacuated 256 individuals from Wuhan and 39 of them showed symptoms of the coronavirus...or 15% of them.

Wuhan has a population of 11 million if 15% of them are infected...


faulty assumptions. I know for a fact that in the province (as an example) where I live there have been 6 individuals tested who showed all the signs of coronavirus and had been recently in Wuhan. None had the virus. Showing signs does not mean you are infected with this particular virus. This is why there is a distinction called "confirmed cases".
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 04 Feb 2020, 14:59:34

Hyundai, Kia Factories Crippled In South Korea As Part Suppliers In China Remain Closed
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hyund ... main-close

Yonhap News reports that Hyundai Motor Co. and its sister Kia Motors Corp. suspended production lines in South Korea after it was hit with a parts shortage from China as the coronavirus outbreak continues to leave entire manufacturing hubs shut down.


How much is China going to produce when its workers are dying on their production lines? This virus has just begun its expansion. Parts will become critically short in factories all over the world in a couple of weeks. Manufactures depend on JIT, and often that is measured in hours. Closures will follow the same exponential grow as the virus itself. The next, and last Great Depression is already here, and China is as sick as its pigs. That can only continue to be hidden from public view for a few more days.
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