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MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 28 Jan 2020, 10:05:52

The ETP MAP couldn't predict any oil price movement over the past 5 years.


Excessive central bank printing can move the price of assets up, which of course, is what has happened to oil; and all other asset classes. It can not change the slope of the curve. The slope of the curve is controlled by the physical properties of oil, which happens to be outside the jurisdiction of the central banks! Understanding that depletion is an inevitable consequence of resource extraction is a critical factor in this evaluation. Comparing where the price should be, to where it is as a result of central banks activities, informs us as to the true impact of their actions. Artificially boosting asset prices through excessive printing has driven the neutral interest down, and the debt up. The central banks have a limit as to the amount of currency they can inject. When the price of oil falls back to the curve, they will have reached it.

We expect that point to be reached in early 2022 when the debt formation rate becomes equal to the total world currency in circulation. Interest rates will have fallen below 2%, and fiat currencies will have reverted to their true intrinsic value. Which happens to be about zero.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 28 Jan 2020, 12:53:22

How convenient. Two more years of Short polluting the forum.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 28 Jan 2020, 14:53:33

asg70 wrote:How convenient. Two more years of Short polluting the forum.

Since by 2022, according to the MAP, oil was supposed to be near free, as no one could afford it, more empty squawking by him doesn't exactly mean a lot, especially as the multiple of the supposed MAP and the real world WTI price continues to increase over time.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 28 Jan 2020, 15:01:36

EdwinSm wrote:BUT you are seeing falling oil prices now.

Let's pretend the Caronavirus has nothing to do with that. :roll:

Let's pretend the MAP can predict blips like the Caronavirus. :roll:

Let's pretend that even WITH the recent downturn in WTI due largely to the Caronavirus fears, that the MAP is even remotely in the ballpark of predicting the overall trajectory of WTI. (Per the MAP chart, we should still be below half the current blipped-down price, and falling rapidly to $13ish by year end.)

If only fairy tales were real, the MAP might mean something. :idea: Give it up.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 28 Jan 2020, 16:04:23

What the fuck is Caronavirus?

Car on a virus?

You can't read and write properly?

It's spelled: Coronavirus.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 28 Jan 2020, 16:30:50

It's spelled: Coronavirus


That is what the CDC said also; great minds think alike!

I'll remember to put it in my spell checker; maybe?

This hype can only get run for a couple of weeks, then there becomes a serious shortage of bodies, coronavirus is not likely to become part of the vernacular for long.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 28 Jan 2020, 16:31:55

You can also call it the Bat Flu if that's easier for you.

:)
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 28 Jan 2020, 16:41:17

The fall of the Roman Empire didn't lead to the Medieval dark ages. The Germanic tribes just took over the classical civilization. It was the plague and the following Moslem invasion that led to the dark ages in Europe.

The energy equation is now red and the Coronavirus might just turn that equation black.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 28 Jan 2020, 19:20:17

Yoshua wrote:The energy equation is now red


Typical vague doomer boilerplate. How is it red? Prove it. Elaborate. You can't. You are just making pronouncements.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 28 Jan 2020, 20:39:45

Yoshua wrote:The fall of the Roman Empire didn't lead to the Medieval dark ages. The Germanic tribes just took over the classical civilization. It was the plague and the following Moslem invasion that led to the dark ages in Europe.

Actually I think the rise of Christianity caused the dark ages with it's constant prediction of the return of Christ and the destruction of all that disagreed with the doctrine. The Moslem invasion was eight hundred years after the dark ages began.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 29 Jan 2020, 01:37:41

Yoshua wrote:What the fuck is Caronavirus?

Car on a virus?

You can't read and write properly?

It's spelled: Coronavirus.

So you, who write constant garbage have NEVER had a typo?

I'm sure.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 29 Jan 2020, 10:53:15

The Roman empire included all the Mediterranean nations. The Mediterranean was vital to trade.

The plauge killed 1/3 of the population. Later came the Moslem invasion of the Middle East and North Africa.

That was the death knell since it killed trade. Later came constant attacks against Southern Europe.

There were of course other factors as well...as always.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 29 Jan 2020, 12:05:46

Is This The Man Behind The Global Coronavirus Pandemic?
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/man-be ... s-pandemic
... is a fabricated farce, and that the real reason behind the viral spread is because a weaponized version of the coronavirus (one which may have originally been obtained from Canada), was released by Wuhan's Institute of Virology (accidentally or not), a top, level-4 biohazard lab which was studying "the world's most dangerous pathogens",


The gnome of the virus has been identified, and it has been found to be composed of two sequences; one from a Chinese bat, and the other "unknown". This same virus was originally developed by a bio weapons lab in Alberta, and later shipped to the Wuhan, Level 4 Bio lab, and registered with the CDC.

According to my sources at the CDC, the Chinese lab has a history of losing dangeous pathogens. A lab worker may have contracted the disease, and went to the market, and squeezed on the fish? Anyway, it got loose. SARS resulted in about 800 known deaths, and MERS about 700. This strain could result in a similar number of deaths before it burns out in March.

The media is presenting the outbreak as the next version of the Bubonic Plaque. Such hyperbolic treatment of the situation is disingenuous. Most adults who contract the disease show only minor symptoms. Fatalities are primarily isolated to the very old who possess other serious complications.

The Chinese appear to be spreading misinformation to disguise their bungling. The CCP has a huge stake in persevering its reputation as a competent administrator of China. Being known by the Chinese people for letting bio weapons lose on the public would be a face losing episode for the CCP. This event is only a world shaking experience if you are a Chinese politician!

https://www.timesnownews.com/health/art ... udy/543808

For further study of the virus.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41579-018-0118-9
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 29 Jan 2020, 12:17:28

This same virus was originally developed by a bio weapons lab in Alberta, and later shipped to the Wuhan


no it wasn't bonehead. This is a product of facebook conspiracy site BS. First off there is no such thing as a bioweapons lab in Alberta where the health care system struggles with funding normal research, there isn't even one in all of Canada. The only research lab in Canada of note is the National Microbiology lab in Winnipeg which concentrates on dealing with the identification of known infections. And it was a conspiracy theory interpretation of a CBC report circa last year that started this ridiculous rumor. You need to stop reading so much science fiction.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/china-coronavirus-online-chatter-conspiracy-1.5442376

Online claims that Chinese scientists stole coronavirus from Winnipeg lab have 'no factual basis

The Public Health Agency of Canada is denying any connection between the National Microbiology Lab in Winnipeg, two scientists who were escorted out of the building last summer, and the coronavirus outbreak in China.

Baseless stories claiming that the two scientists are Chinese spies and that they smuggled the coronavirus to China's only Level 4 lab in Wuhan last year have been spreading on all major social media platforms and on conspiracy theorist blogs. One article from a conspiracy blog was shared more than 6,000 times on Facebook on Monday.


But like every other ridiculous unsupported theory you post here, I'm sure you will just continue to repeat it, much like you continue on with calling LTO "diluent" when you have been corrected more times than I can remember.

At some level, it seems you are just happy being considered a blabbering fool. :roll:
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 29 Jan 2020, 13:18:56

This is a product of facebook conspiracy site BS.


Working for the bio weapons companies now? How low can we go?
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 29 Jan 2020, 14:06:16

The reason that there are more identified cases of the new nCoV than there were SARS is because the diagnostics being used where developed for SARS and MERS. They are getting better at identify the virus in its early stages. That also means mortality rates are lower than what it appears from the data. Even though this virus is a recombinant of bat sequences, and an unknown (probably constructed) the epidemiology of the two are very similar. This strain will probably have less impact than SARS because it has not yet spawned any "super carriers". All three strains work through the same receptor-binding domain (RBD), thus symptoms are very similar. The WHO will have an announcement tomorrow.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 29 Jan 2020, 15:37:30

"The latest clinical report on 2019-nCoV: 99 patients from Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital. Important: a key group of patients progress rapidly to ARDS, septic shock, and multiple organ failure. 23% ITU admission, 17% ARDS, 11% mortality."

They are behaving as if this is serious. The world is imposing a quarantine on entire China.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 29 Jan 2020, 16:37:23

Yoshua wrote:"The latest clinical report on 2019-nCoV: 99 patients from Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital. Important: a key group of patients progress rapidly to ARDS, septic shock, and multiple organ failure. 23% ITU admission, 17% ARDS, 11% mortality."

They are behaving as if this is serious. The world is imposing a quarantine on entire China.

And one unpredictable event changes the big picture, over time, re the overall global price of oil, how? (I'm talking big picture here).

How does this mesh in with the supposed value / predictability of the MAP?

Short term, we already know fears of global economic slowdown from 2019-nCoV are depressing oil prices somewhat.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 29 Jan 2020, 16:57:27

China is importing 10mmbp of crude. They are building up their inventories by 4mmbp. China has already a product glut. China has kept oil prices up with their "demand".

If this virus spreads through out China and millions get infected, then they might be forced to keep their industries shut down for months.

The demand for petroleum products would tank and their inventories would soon be filled to the brim. Oil prices would tank as the global glut worsens.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 29 Jan 2020, 17:15:09

Yoshua wrote:the global glut worsens.


Horror of horrors (not).

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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