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MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 27 Dec 2019, 12:10:28

shortonoil wrote:For those who missed it: the world is irrevocably, absolutely, without recourse, bankrupt!


Yeah, we know. You've been saying it for 15 years now. You used it to predict the last 9 collapses as well. Amazingly, none of those collapses were able to shut you up about it, let alone prevent you from doubling down with that oilfield ignorant dissertation that was laughed off the internet.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 27 Dec 2019, 16:52:20

shortonoil wrote:... the application of well distributed ignorance.

Well, you've certainly showed us PLENTY of that in recent years, and no matter how wrong you persistently turn out to be, no matter how many times you're shown that things you claim are just flat out WRONG re simple documented facts, you just persist.

Why not do practical things like pay your debt and get a life instead?

And if you're going to insist your version of reality is so right and you're so successful, why IS thehillsgroup.org gone? Didn't you LIKE selling your opinions on ETP? (And I know that I'm spelling it right. Google search has hits for the site, but none of the links work).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 27 Dec 2019, 17:11:11

Meanwhile back at the ranch' WTI has crept up past $60. :)
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 27 Dec 2019, 17:52:25

vtsnowedin wrote:Meanwhile back at the ranch' WTI has crept up past $60. :)


One thing's for sure, though. Even when the MAP says oil should be worth $0 and it's actual price is higher, zealots will just continue to blame it on some sort of financial/industrial conspiracy.

It's just funny how ETP was invented to explain away low oil prices after oil came down after 2008 and will peter off trying to explain away higher oil prices.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 04 Jan 2020, 13:24:57

One thing's for sure, though. Even when the MAP says oil should be worth $0 and it's actual price is higher, zealots will just continue to blame it on some sort of financial/industrial conspiracy.


Forgive him! He never learned to read a graph. He was too busy picking his nose, and scratching his butt to pay attention in class. According to the MAP crude prices (C&C) should be at around $28, and they would be if the US had not taken Venezuela, and Iran off line. That was done because oil prices, using a free market control mechanism, could no longer be maintained at a high enough level to keep producers in business. So someone had to go. The two selected constituted about 5 m/d, and the loss of either wouldn't produce much world outrage. Neither were greatly admired. Even the Russians and Chinese have not complained about the US actions.

Because oil is an asset, the price of oil is being held artificially elevated, like all other asset classes, by excessive central bank currency printing. Once the world's debt bomb goes off (probably at around $400 trillion in total debt) the credit markets will fail, and the CB will lose all control. The price of oil will then plunge. That is, it will collapse if there is still some functioning element of the monetary system for it to be priced with. Generally speaking the price of oil will become irrelevant, along with the price of about everything else.

Image

After that the world will be back to relearning about fundamentals:

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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 04 Jan 2020, 13:50:49

shortonoil wrote:the price of oil is being held artificially elevated


And if oil were cheap enough to fall in sync with the map you wouldn't even be considering the intersection of oil with markets and currency. You would be running victory laps. You are an unending rationalization engine.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 04 Jan 2020, 14:32:42

asg70 wrote:
shortonoil wrote:the price of oil is being held artificially elevated


And if oil were cheap enough to fall in sync with the map you wouldn't even be considering the intersection of oil with markets and currency. You would be running victory laps. You are an unending rationalization engine.

That's been his MO for years. He's wrong, wrong, wrong, but it's always excuses, conspiracy theories, etc.

Looking at his MAP chart, as of the end of 2019, the MAP showed about $26 to $28, and falling rapidly.

What will be his excuse in a year when the MAP says $13 or so for late 2020? The following year his magenta 38% line stops, but by the rate of the curve, it is plunging to close enough to zero not to be worth arguing about. (So in late 2021, whether WTI is $20 or $120, him flapping his lips and telling us WTI SHOULD be, say $2 max, if only x, y, and z conspiracies weren't operating only flies so long, even among those with constant fast crash doomer faith.

I guess at that point he'll be into pure name calling and making new stuff up. :roll:

Too bad his theories and sources and data are so useless he can't just be right and win the argument via reality, even occasionally. :idea:

But there are flat earth believers, etc. so no doubt he can continue to scare up some believers by posting enough cartoon pictures. 8)
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 04 Jan 2020, 14:37:17

shortonoil wrote:
One thing's for sure, though. Even when the MAP says oil should be worth $0 and it's actual price is higher, zealots will just continue to blame it on some sort of financial/industrial conspiracy.


Forgive him! He never learned to read a graph.

So, you also have terrible reading comprehension, yet again. He didn't say oil should be worth $0 NOW according to your ETP nonsense, he said WHEN it should be worth $0 according to your useless MAP.

But keep spreading that whining at your detractors. It's so much more convincing than credibly cited figures or facts, or being right, etc. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Cog » Sat 04 Jan 2020, 15:25:45

I would like to invent a theory totally based on my own emotional investment. If the theory works, I'm a prophet. If not, I will blame outside manipulation and trickery as to why my theory doesn't work. It's sort of how MAP, stock market predictions, and ETP works out for their proponents.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 05 Jan 2020, 10:39:35

I would like to invent a theory totally based on my own emotional investment.


You already have! It's called Pollyanna on steroids. We get to review it every day. Mathematically it is very simple: 1+1 = 3; 1+1 = 3; 1+1 = 3; 1+1 = 3; 1+1 = 3; 1+1 = 3; 1+1 = 3; 1+1 = 3; 1+1 = 3; 1+1 = 3; and etc.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 05 Jan 2020, 10:53:10

As opposed to ETP which is 1 + 1 = 0, 1 + 1 = 0, 1 + 1 = 0, 1 + 1 = 0, 1 + 1 = 0, 1 + 1 = 0, 1 + 1 = 0, 1 + 1 = 0, 1 + 1 = 0, 1 + 1 = 0, 1 + 1 = 0, 1 + 1 = 0, 1 + 1 = 0, 1 + 1 = 0, 1 + 1 = 0, etc...

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 05 Jan 2020, 20:00:34

shortonoil wrote:
I would like to invent a theory totally based on my own emotional investment.


You already have! It's called Pollyanna on steroids. We get to review it every day. Mathematically it is very simple: 1+1 = 3; 1+1 = 3; 1+1 = 3; 1+1 = 3; 1+1 = 3; 1+1 = 3; 1+1 = 3; 1+1 = 3; 1+1 = 3; 1+1 = 3; and etc.

Wow. You're so clever. :roll:

Gee, if you were only right re your math or economics or predictions a decent percentage of the time, your posting wouldn't be such a waste of space. :idea:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Baduila » Wed 15 Jan 2020, 16:11:03

The new OPEC MOMR is released. A politician could say: "I can't exclude that peak oil is an event of the past"

The oil price is still confined by the dotted lines, which indicate the maximum price the economy can tolerate (green) and the minimum price (blue) oil producers tolerate.

About three months remain until the three price lines clash.


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Image Take care of the second law.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 15 Jan 2020, 16:28:11

About three months remain until the three price lines clash.


That goes along with our calculations of April 2020. 13 months after Peak occurred.

Image
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/cold-blast- ... -1.1374253

Western Canadian Select - $23.50/ barrel
Edmonton Mixed Sweet - $10.00 / barrel

How long can they stay in business at those prices? The only thing holding the oil industry together is forced production cuts at the point of a gun (Venezuela & Iran) and fictitious FED money that is pumping up asset prices. The world is spiraling into the debt abyss at $134 billion per day.

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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 15 Jan 2020, 16:29:07

Ah, but which peaks and valleys make up the data points for the line? Clearly both lines start at a max peak and min valley, but over time they just slice right through inconvenient later data that puts them in doubt.

If the "Triangle of DOOM" were a real phenomenon then the dotted lines would be redrawn any time a later peak or valley broke out of the pattern. Unfortunately for the fast crash doom division that would force the triangle to widen and push the convergence event further into the future, and living longer is just too horrible to accept as a possibility.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 15 Jan 2020, 16:35:11

Western Canadian Select - $23.50/ barrel
Edmonton Mixed Sweet - $10.00 / barrel

How long can they stay in business at those prices? The only thing holding the oil industry together is forced production cuts at the point of a gun (Venezuela & Iran) and fictitious FED money that is pumping up asset prices. The world is spiraling into the debt abyss at $134 billion per day.


talk about cherry picking prices. Oil prices in Alberta have been hurt by the lack of egress thanks to a hostile Federal government which has effectively stopped the building of additional pipelines which could ship oil to the West Coast and onwards to Asia where there is demand for this crude, Eastern Canada which is buying oil currently from the Middle East and elsewhere to supply refineries and further shipments to US refineries which are more than happy to take it. As long as the oil remains effectively landlocked you have a situation of over supply and the price ends up being controlled by a buyers market.
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 15 Jan 2020, 17:15:22

Well Doc, see you're still trying to teach pigs how to roller skate. LOL. Maybe this will be the decade you succeed.

And a Happy New Year to you, bubba!
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 15 Jan 2020, 17:35:51

same back at you.

I suspect teaching pigs to roller skate is easier....they actually would like to learn, just don't have the skill set!
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 15 Jan 2020, 19:36:38

The Zombification Of America - Over 40% Of Listed Companies Don't Make Money
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/zombi ... make-money

It's absolutely stunning how the Fed/ECB/BoJ injected upwards of $1.1 trillion into global markets in the last quarter and cut rates 80 times in the past 12 months, which allowed money-losing companies to survive another day.


The Wall Street Journal notes that in the past 12 months, 40% of all US-listed companies were losing money, the highest level since the late 1990s – or a period also referred to as the Dot Com bubble.


It would be a grand economy - out there, if there was someone making any money. According to the Media they don't have too. They are going to make it up in volume; just buy "stock". The FED is going to pump in currency until no one whats it. That happened in the repo market at 10%. It is momentum that is driving the economy, now we can get a value for the friction between the economy and its environment. How good of a glide plane is a momentum driven economy?
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Re: MAP Update 2020, seeing perfectly now

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 15 Jan 2020, 21:58:33

shortonoil wrote:
About three months remain until the three price lines clash.


That goes along with our calculations of April 2020. 13 months after Peak occurred.

Image
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/cold-blast- ... -1.1374253

Western Canadian Select - $23.50/ barrel
Edmonton Mixed Sweet - $10.00 / barrel

How long can they stay in business at those prices? The only thing holding the oil industry together is forced production cuts at the point of a gun (Venezuela & Iran) and fictitious FED money that is pumping up asset prices. The world is spiraling into the debt abyss at $134 billion per day.

Image

When WTI is below $10 for months, I'm sure you'll let us know.

Meanwhile, picking cherries and empty arm waving as usual, I see.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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