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US finally a net petroleum exporter

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US finally a net petroleum exporter

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 30 Nov 2019, 17:26:25

U.S. Posts First Month in 70 Years as a Net Petroleum Exporter

(Bloomberg) -- The U.S. solidified its status as an energy producer by posting the first full month as a net exporter of crude and petroleum products since government records began in 1949.
The nation exported 89,000 barrels a day more than it imported in September, according to data from the Energy Information Administration Friday. While the U.S. has previously reported net exports on a weekly basis, today’s figures mark a key milestone that few would have predicted just a decade ago, before the onset of the shale boom.


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-posts-first-month-70-154903996.html
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Re: US finally a net petroleum exporter

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 30 Nov 2019, 17:38:14

rockdoc123 wrote:U.S. Posts First Month in 70 Years as a Net Petroleum Exporter

(Bloomberg) -- The U.S. solidified its status as an energy producer by posting the first full month as a net exporter of crude and petroleum products since government records began in 1949.
The nation exported 89,000 barrels a day more than it imported in September, according to data from the Energy Information Administration Friday. While the U.S. has previously reported net exports on a weekly basis, today’s figures mark a key milestone that few would have predicted just a decade ago, before the onset of the shale boom.


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-posts-first-month-70-154903996.html


I used a reference to EIA net import figures from September showing the US being a net crude and petroleum product exporter, when it turned out that Shorty was claiming the US was net importing like millions of barrels a day. Talk about faith based belief overwhelming common sense.
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Re: US finally a net petroleum exporter

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 30 Nov 2019, 18:44:53

Image
Hubbert never saw this coming.........He predicted US oil production would reach its all time peak in 1970.

I wonder when and what the ultimate "all time peak" for US oil production will turn out to be. US oil production can't grow infinitely so its got to peak at some point....

Cheers!
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Re: US finally a net petroleum exporter

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 30 Nov 2019, 19:04:15

Plantagenet wrote:Hubbert never saw this coming.........He predicted US oil production would reach its all time peak in 1970.


Yes. Some of us have happily known that Happy McPeaksters have had it wrong all along. Duh.

Plantagenet wrote:I wonder when and what the ultimate "all time peak" for US oil production will turn out to be. US oil production can't grow infinitely so its got to peak at some point....

Cheers!


We should begin arguing about how many peaks a region can have, rather than focusing on any one along the way.
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Re: US finally a net petroleum exporter

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 30 Nov 2019, 20:22:54

AdamB wrote:
We should begin arguing about how many peaks a region can have, rather than focusing on any one along the way.


Obviously regions can have multiple transient peaks in oil production. If you think you can predict how many transient rises and falls in production a region will experience, then go ahead and predict. I'm curious to see how you think can predict that, since it would be very dependent on changes in market price and technology.

However the final, highest level of oil production from an oil field or oil province or oil producing country (i.e. peak oil) is a more significant event and a more important benchmark then any transient, temporary rise and fall in oil production. Having said that, the exact timing of maximum oil production in the US still is somewhere off in the future, with the exact date being dependent on temporary changes in market price and the general economy as well as continued technologic advances in oil discovery and recovery and perhaps even on geopolitical factors. Peak oil demand and political restraints on oil production due to worries over climate change might also bring down oil production.

Yes, Hubbert got it very very wrong when he predicted US oil production would max out in 1970 . But the US will inevitably reach some maximum level of oil production, and its not unreasonable to wonder how many more years (or decades?} it will be until the US finally reaches "peak oil" production and what that level of maximum oil production will be.

The EIA, for instance, in 2014 predicted that global oil production will slowly and monotonically increase well into the future. More recently the IEA has become more pessimistic, while other oil prognosticators predict peak oil demand in only three years.

oil-demand-to-peak-in-three-years-says-energy-adviser

I wonder which prediction will be right and which will join Hubbert's famous prediction in the dust bin of history.

Image
IEA oil production forecast from 2014 shows global oil production going up up up.

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Re: US finally a net petroleum exporter

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 30 Nov 2019, 23:13:39

Plantagenet wrote: I wonder which prediction will be right and which will join Hubbert's famous prediction in the dust bin of history.

Image
IEA oil production forecast from 2014 shows global oil production going up up up.

Cheers!


A reaction to Fatih Birol's being suckered into making their 2006 peak oil call I'd bet. That one must have stung considering what happened shortly thereafter. In WEO2019 the pendulum appears to have swung back completely in the other direction, the WEO is wildly enthusiastic about US light-tight oil. When listening to their presentation they kept saying "resource base resource base!". Methinks, as with any pendulum swinging back, they are already pretty far out on the return arc.
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Re: US finally a net petroleum exporter

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 01 Dec 2019, 10:13:08

I could be wrong, but I thought we import a little over 20 mbpd, and produce 12 mbpd. Then whatever we have left, we export, mostly the refined end product.

Somebody correct me if I’m wrong. I’d like to know
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Re: US finally a net petroleum exporter

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 01 Dec 2019, 11:29:57

I could be wrong, but I thought we import a little over 20 mbpd, and produce 12 mbpd. Then whatever we have left, we export, mostly the refined end product.


According to the EIA

EIA for the week of 11/22 Net imports were 2.71 MMb/d, Net Exports were 3.48 MMb/d compared to a year ago imports were 5.72 MMb/d and exports were 2.33 MMb/d

hence now a net exporter
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Re: US finally a net petroleum exporter

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 01 Dec 2019, 11:32:34

Armageddon wrote:I could be wrong, but I thought we import a little over 20 mbpd, and produce 12 mbpd. Then whatever we have left, we export, mostly the refined end product.

Somebody correct me if I’m wrong. I’d like to know


We are now the world's largest exporter of petroleum products. All those imports? We refine them for people, and then ship them back out.

EIA data demonstrating this here.
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Re: US finally a net petroleum exporter

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 01 Dec 2019, 12:36:14

I’m just curious of these 2 things

How many barrels does the US produce per day?
How many barrels does the US consume per day?


From what ive gathered:

The US produces 12.5 MBPD
The US consumes 20.5 MBPD

That’s an 8 MBPD shortfall
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Re: US finally a net petroleum exporter

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 01 Dec 2019, 13:22:35

Armageddon wrote:I’m just curious of these 2 things

How many barrels does the US produce per day?
How many barrels does the US consume per day?


From what ive gathered:

The US produces 12.5 MBPD
The US consumes 20.5 MBPD

That’s an 8 MBPD shortfall

BTW, rockdoc ALREADY answered basically the same question for you above, which you ignored since you didn't like the answer.

Asking it again after receiving the answer changes nothing. 8O


The statement, re being a net exporter of oil, wasn't that the US produces more than it consumes, but that it exports more than it imports. But given the body of your posts, you confusion doesn't surprise me.

Not that you clowns EVER bother to learn anything if it goes against what you want to hear, but:

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/netexports.asp

Net exports are a measure of a nation's total trade. The formula for net exports is a simple one: The value of a nation's total export goods and services minus the value of all the goods and services it imports equal its net exports.

Now, since the discussion is re crude oil, since consumption isn't part of the formula, I'm sure if you try, even you can figure things out.
Last edited by Outcast_Searcher on Sun 01 Dec 2019, 13:29:18, edited 2 times in total.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: US finally a net petroleum exporter

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 01 Dec 2019, 13:26:41

It's all here......sorry it isn't a doomer site predicting a crashing economy and the end of the world :roll:

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/pdf/table1.pdf
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Re: US finally a net petroleum exporter

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 01 Dec 2019, 13:36:32

Since ive schooled you guys on the economy, i’ll let you school me on this. I admit, i’m not an expert on crude import / export. Thats why I come here to learn.
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Re: US finally a net petroleum exporter

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 01 Dec 2019, 15:30:38

Armageddon wrote:I’m just curious of these 2 things

How many barrels does the US produce per day?
How many barrels does the US consume per day?


From what ive gathered:

The US produces 12.5 MBPD
The US consumes 20.5 MBPD

That’s an 8 MBPD shortfall


The EIA reference has the numbers. Data is your friend.

The short answer is more entertaining....AMERICA. THE WORLD'S REFINERY!!
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Re: US finally a net petroleum exporter

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 01 Dec 2019, 15:33:52

Armageddon wrote:Since ive schooled you guys on the economy, i’ll let you school me on this.


You've schooled us on that Stock Market Crash! for certain!!

Now...if it would..you know...just crash...

Armageddon wrote: I admit, i’m not an expert on crude import / export. Thats why I come here to learn.


Hence why rockdoc and I both provided links to the data. Now..if you have that link to the Stock Market Crash! showing..you know...a crash....in any of the Parts, 1 through 11.
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Re: US finally a net petroleum exporter

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 01 Dec 2019, 15:39:25

AdamB wrote:
Armageddon wrote:Since ive schooled you guys on the economy, i’ll let you school me on this.


You've schooled us on that Stock Market Crash! for certain!!

Now...if it would..you know...just crash...

Armageddon wrote: I admit, i’m not an expert on crude import / export. Thats why I come here to learn.


Hence why rockdoc and I both provided links to the data. Now..if you have that link to the Stock Market Crash! showing..you know...a crash....in any of the Parts, 1 through 11.




I can see you haven’t paid attention. Carry on
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Re: US finally a net petroleum exporter

Unread postby dissident » Sun 01 Dec 2019, 16:11:46

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Armageddon wrote:I’m just curious of these 2 things

How many barrels does the US produce per day?
How many barrels does the US consume per day?


From what ive gathered:

The US produces 12.5 MBPD
The US consumes 20.5 MBPD

That’s an 8 MBPD shortfall

BTW, rockdoc ALREADY answered basically the same question for you above, which you ignored since you didn't like the answer.

Asking it again after receiving the answer changes nothing. 8O


The statement, re being a net exporter of oil, wasn't that the US produces more than it consumes, but that it exports more than it imports. But given the body of your posts, you confusion doesn't surprise me.

Not that you clowns EVER bother to learn anything if it goes against what you want to hear, but:

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/netexports.asp

Net exports are a measure of a nation's total trade. The formula for net exports is a simple one: The value of a nation's total export goods and services minus the value of all the goods and services it imports equal its net exports.

Now, since the discussion is re crude oil, since consumption isn't part of the formula, I'm sure if you try, even you can figure things out.


Ah shaddup, you sanctimonious wind bag.

Net exporter is a racket in this case. Most people infer that net exporter means that production exceeds consumption domestically. Clearly this is not the case for the USA and it is literally exporting Canadian and other sourced crude. It is a reseller and not an exporter. Abusing the English language in this subject is evidence of fraud.

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=727&t=6

In 2018 the USA imported 9.94 million barrels per day from 90 countries. At the same time it exported 7.6 million barrels per day to 190 countries and 4 US territories. So US territories are not counted as domestic consumption.

Clearly the US is a reseller.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=41553

As of the middle of 2019, the US as a net crude importer of 4.2 million barrels per day. If there is a huge surge in exports then it implies US domestic consumption is crashing. Hardly something to wank off about.
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Re: US finally a net petroleum exporter

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 01 Dec 2019, 16:49:39

Armageddon wrote:I can see you haven’t paid attention. Carry on


To hysterical crash claims? Are you kidding? I've been watching peak oil stuff for years! I specialize in knowing all the hysterical claims!!

So when does your hysterical stock crash claim actually HAPPEN? Part 243?

I'm rooting for you Armageddon, I really am. Do you know how much money I made last stock market crash piling in on the far side? Keep your powder dry I always say, and be ready because there is money to be made when there is blood in the streets.

Why aren't you ever discussing that anyway? Pimping the idea of crash, I get that, it is a natural doomer stance, repetitive, faith based, etc etc. But what is your advice for making money on the far side?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: US finally a net petroleum exporter

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 01 Dec 2019, 17:01:11

AdamB wrote:
Armageddon wrote:I can see you haven’t paid attention. Carry on


To hysterical crash claims? Are you kidding? I've been watching peak oil stuff for years! I specialize in knowing all the hysterical claims!!

So when does your hysterical stock crash claim actually HAPPEN? Part 243?

I'm rooting for you Armageddon, I really am. Do you know how much money I made last stock market crash piling in on the far side? Keep your powder dry I always say, and be ready because there is money to be made when there is blood in the streets.

Why aren't you ever discussing that anyway? Pimping the idea of crash, I get that, it is a natural doomer stance, repetitive, faith based, etc etc. But what is your advice for making money on the far side?




Nope, you’re still wrong
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Re: US finally a net petroleum exporter

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 01 Dec 2019, 17:03:23

dissident wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Armageddon wrote:I’m just curious of these 2 things

How many barrels does the US produce per day?
How many barrels does the US consume per day?


From what ive gathered:

The US produces 12.5 MBPD
The US consumes 20.5 MBPD

That’s an 8 MBPD shortfall

BTW, rockdoc ALREADY answered basically the same question for you above, which you ignored since you didn't like the answer.

Asking it again after receiving the answer changes nothing. 8O


The statement, re being a net exporter of oil, wasn't that the US produces more than it consumes, but that it exports more than it imports. But given the body of your posts, you confusion doesn't surprise me.

Not that you clowns EVER bother to learn anything if it goes against what you want to hear, but:

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/netexports.asp

Net exports are a measure of a nation's total trade. The formula for net exports is a simple one: The value of a nation's total export goods and services minus the value of all the goods and services it imports equal its net exports.

Now, since the discussion is re crude oil, since consumption isn't part of the formula, I'm sure if you try, even you can figure things out.


Ah shaddup, you sanctimonious wind bag.

Net exporter is a racket in this case. Most people infer that net exporter means that production exceeds consumption domestically. Clearly this is not the case for the USA and it is literally exporting Canadian and other sourced crude. It is a reseller and not an exporter. Abusing the English language in this subject is evidence of fraud.

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=727&t=6

In 2018 the USA imported 9.94 million barrels per day from 90 countries. At the same time it exported 7.6 million barrels per day to 190 countries and 4 US territories. So US territories are not counted as domestic consumption.

Clearly the US is a reseller.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=41553

As of the middle of 2019, the US as a net crude importer of 4.2 million barrels per day. If there is a huge surge in exports then it implies US domestic consumption is crashing. Hardly something to wank off about.




This makes more sense. Their numbers just didn’t add up
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