[sparky]

.
A few of the fellow posters subscribe to the doomer outlook
they have very good reasons to do so ,
modern society has always been an exercise in countering destructive forces
none less powerful than people themselves

today the societies and their mega cities are astoundingly complex and integrated
this lead them to believe
1 .....that they are brittle , a single sudden shock can see them collapsing like a house of cards
2......that they are not sustainable , their growing needs exceed their foreseeable resources

nothing much wrong with that , but I could suggest some comment

1.....a healthy society with a modicum of civil spirit is in fact very resilient ,
there were wars , disasters and crisis which were surmounted after a time
2.....adjusting to poverty is usually very disruptive, plenty of historical evidence point to the fact
but again a good management of the situation based on some drastic law and order and everybody best interest tend to favor stability

so the term "crash" find itself opposed to the term "decline" the later could easily led to the former
but there is no inevitability it would do so and a lot of interests in preventing it by any means

the critical factor is if the society has good internal cohesion ,
if it does ...it's bullet proof
if it doesn't ...it's a zombie walking to a cliff

[Newfie]

“Good internal cohesion” seems to be the operative words in your message.

[sparky]

.
Indeed , if a society is at war with itself each stress add and each solution is fought over and rejected
it's one of the dark side of democracy than assembly a majority made of minorities to impose some policies is seen as an achievement

[EnergyUnlimited]

For what I observe, there are many directed policies to destroy any remaining cohesion.
Actually everything known as progressivism is to some degree destroying this "cohesion".
So for example multiculturalism is tribalizing neighbourhoods and causing growth of envy/distrust/hatred between different ethnic groups forced to live together.
Feminism is causing hatred towards women, who at some point will simply be ditched.
LGBT excesses are causing hatred towards sexual minorities tamed by law enforcement for time being but for sure pressure is growing.
Finally increasingly authoritarian rule is causing distrust and hate towards State and its institutions.
Collapse will not be peaceful and gradual (aka decline) for long.
Once state resources are limited to a point that police apparatus have lost ability to solve different crimes faster than new crimes are committed, we can expect accelerating avalanche of criminality to take hold.
So Blacks, Whites & Latinos will start murdering each other secure in the knowledge that overstretched police cannot respond fast enough, women will become to be a "rapegame", religious groups and sexual minorities will struggle in mortal combat etc.
So there will be crush of progressive society, rather than a mere decline.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Sparky you make a good point. Re internal cohesion, looking at human history since there have been good records (let's say since about the Renaissance, but that would apply further back), implies that unexpected events and stresses on the system mean that, big picture, such cohesion doesn't last. Society changes and adapts when it is forced to, and such changes are a result of stress on the system.

And by definition, IMO, when those stresses cause big changes in how populations align and live and work, there can't BE a lot of cohesion -- at least while the stresses are being resolved.

So I think that stresses, some lack of cohesion, and lots of change over time are inevitable. The question is, does the complexity make things brittle enough to preclude the necessary transitions from taking place without "doom"?

So then you get into the definition of doom. NO DOUBT, billions will die now and again during the rough spots from wars, disease, man made crises, etc. But OTOH, EVERYBODY dies in about, say 80 years or so on average (or gets to a state where they can't do a lot of useful work).

The whole thing is a big unstable cauldron. And has been since at least the Renaissance (from where I got a decent amount of overall world history education vs. dribs and drabs).

I think in some ways, the technology will make us MORE resiliant. Look how much of the fast crash doomer scenario is on the electric grid coming down for months or years. Once solar is a cheap, effective alternative or even replacement of having to be on "the grid", and/or you have a huge number of residential solar installations feeding any excess power INTO the grid, and capable backup batteries are common or even the norm -- the idea of the grid shutting down for while being "DOOM" simply goes away. (NOT saying it wouldn't be very inconvenient, just not doom).

Of course, OTOH, unless electronics get hardened or commonly protected with Faraday cages, etc., maybe an EMP pulse replaces the grid as THE obvious huge weak point, for example.

I just think that realistically, things are FAR too complex and change FAR too much to try to make any meaningful forecasts of short to intermediate term doom probability. Which of course, might be a real bad sign, as TPTB trying to apply for effective handling of a large disaster results in plans which are pretty much a joke (same as it's been throughout the nuclear era, considering city evacuation plans, for example). OTOH, more millions will die which sounds really bad, but there's more billions around to take over once the mess is resolved. And yes, I think that by far, most of the crises are relatively local vs. global in scale.

[vtsnowedin]

On a short drive yesterday I passed several houses with solar panels mounted on roof tops or tracking poles with a 5kw system being the average (24 -200 watt panels) plus a solar "farm" I had not seen before that covered more then an acre of land. Considering that an Acre of solar panels can supply the needs of 250 homes the penetration of solar into the electric market is growing by leaps and bounds. I can count five of these acre or more farms within ten miles of my home and seeing new roof panels is now so common it is not even noteworthy. These have been erected in the last five years or so the trend is accelerating.

[sparky]

.
an intuitive insight is that the more sophisticated and specialised a society is , the more brittle it is .
simple agrarian communities are about shock proof to anything bar a big comet
a mega-city of twenty millions is just an accident waiting to happen
anything would do

[vtsnowedin]

.
an intuitive insight is that the more sophisticated and specialised a society is , the more brittle it is .
simple agrarian communities are about shock proof to anything bar a big comet
a mega-city of twenty millions is just an accident waiting to happen
anything would do

While that sounds logical, complicated or sophisticated cultures have throughout history supported much larger and denser populations then the simpler cultures surrounding them. The accidents that bring down more advanced cultures are few and far between and many times are the result of a resource being over utilized to the point of collapse.

[sparky]

.
sophisticated societies certainly support large populations
but it's mostly because they draw from a large hinterland , either by conquest ( most empire capitals )
or by trade ......Phoenicia , Florence , Venice , Amsterdam , London
I cannot think of one which survived unless it was in isolation , like Japan or to a large extend China
the cause of their demise is usually institutional sclerosis succumbing to a variety of political and environment stresses