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PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 01 Dec 2019, 21:11:57

GHung wrote:If battery tech progresses as expected and much higher capacity systems become mainstream (solid-state batteries with faster charge rates at lower cost), this conversation will become obsolete


I'm reminded of the fatalism surrounding the Chevron/Cobasys situation vis a vis NiMh which was once held up by environmentalists as the key to electrifying transportation. Lithium made that entire narrative obsolete. Where money is to be made, R&D will be spent. Expect battery development to accelerate as car companies seek to lower their costs, increase range, and differentiate their products.

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-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 01 Dec 2019, 21:22:25

asg70 wrote:
AdamB wrote:Darn right! And buying an EV means..who cares!!


Well, the EV smugness only works up to a point.


Yeah, I know. But after having been an EV'er for 5 years now, I can see how it ultimately plays out. As with most things, slower than some expect, and yet still amazingly fast to others.

Once you test drive one of the uncorked ones, they sell themselves. Throw in free fuel that some places hand out, and an ICE powered machine becomes the 2nd car in the family all of sudden.

asg70 wrote: If you're the only one buying an EV and the rest of civilization crumbles around you, it won't really matter. And while the classic peak oil mantra that oil is the be all / end all is a bit overstated, it's used for a lot beyond just transportation. High oil prices do have a knock-on effect on the economy even if you disregard transportation. So you still have to care, just not AS much.


Fortunately, unlike fuels made from crude, the link in terms of price increases in the greater economy tends to be inflationary, rather than a near direct correlation (between crude and fuel prices). So sure, higher prices will do their thing in general..but they have before, and I have to say, it was quite nice NOT worrying about those fuel costs when they did. Someone find me an outlet! and I'm good to go!
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 01 Dec 2019, 23:11:06

AdamB wrote:Fortunately, unlike fuels made from crude, the link in terms of price increases in the greater economy tends to be inflationary, rather than a near direct correlation


Whatever that means. For instance, if you are a commercial airline pilot but you drive an EV, sustained high oil prices will tank the airline industry and challenge your livelihood. Or if you drive an EV but you still rely on fuel oil in the wintertime. There is going to be somewhat of a domino effect of high oil prices rippling through the economy, maybe not as severe as Chris Martenson and his Crash Course thinks, but it's still there.
I'm pointing that out not to discourage anyone from buying an EV, just challenging the simplistic notion that buying one is all you need to do to guarantee peak oil salvation.

Our individual future security is really tied on what people do en masse. If people respond to oil price pressure by shifting towards EVs, then it will relieve that knock-on effect. If they respond by chanting "drill baby drill" and feeling like it's their god given right to roll coal, then believe me, your life will be made worse in more indirect ways even if you don't have to face the pain at the pump.

You can follow that line of thinking further, of course. I would say the few people out there with mature permaculture doomsteads will have trouble if hardiness zones keep shifting, invasive insects and forest fires blaze through, freak droughts, floods, and frosts, etc... all because the rest of us 8 billion plus continue to wreck the biosphere. We all share the same earth.

Because of all this, I can't really be so cocky and self-assured about my individual preps or adaptations.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 02 Dec 2019, 00:00:49

asg70 wrote:
AdamB wrote:Fortunately, unlike fuels made from crude, the link in terms of price increases in the greater economy tends to be inflationary, rather than a near direct correlation


Whatever that means.


Crude prices go up. Fuel prices change in similar proportion. Say a 50% increase in crude leads to a 45-55% increase in fuel costs. Whereas the additional fuel costs increase my lettuce cost 5%. As well as other things transported using those fuels. Therefore, it looks inflationary, rather than directly correlated as the fuel costs are. Plus competition gets involved among lettuce suppliers. The ones using Elon's Semi aren't effected by the fuel cost jump, and undercut the other lettuce producers, who in response eat 3% of the total increase by buying more efficient trailers and hiring cheaper drivers. Now they are just 2% more expensive then they were before the fuel jump.

The results look inflationary to the consumer buying lettuce. As opposed to directly fuel related.

asg70 wrote: For instance, if you are a commercial airline pilot but you drive an EV, sustained high oil prices will tank the airline industry and challenge your livelihood. Or if you drive an EV but you still rely on fuel oil in the wintertime. There is going to be somewhat of a domino effect of high oil prices rippling through the economy, maybe not as severe as Chris Martenson and his Crash Course thinks, but it's still there.


And we got a look at that from 2011-2014. Global growth of 2% or so under quite consistently high prices.

asg70 wrote: I'm pointing that out not to discourage anyone from buying an EV, just challenging the simplistic notion that buying one is all you need to do to guarantee peak oil salvation.


It strikes me that the analysis by the demand expert types includes more than EV market penetration. I would agree with that idea, EVs aren't a salvation, just another step along the path. I believe the oncoming environmental concerns are quite their own pressure on the entire system.

asg70 wrote:Because of all this, I can't really be so cocky and self-assured about my individual preps or adaptations.


Indeed. Flexible preps for a changing world seems to be the best game I can think of.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby ralfy » Mon 02 Dec 2019, 02:09:52

Battery tech or combinations of technofixes will have to progress at a rate that will achieve energy returns at pre-'70s oil and beyond to counter diminishing returns. In short, to meet the basic needs of the current population and a growing one, the equivalent of one more earth, or at least four more Saudi Arabias. To meet the basic needs of a growing population plus counter environmental damage, even higher. To meet the basic needs of a growing population plus counter environmental damage plus ensure business as usual, higher still.

For a goo-free future, they will have to compress what should take around 130 years of transition in only one or two decades, and without fighting.
http://sites.google.com/site/peakoilreports/
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Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 02 Dec 2019, 10:46:01

ralfy wrote:Battery tech or combinations of technofixes will have to progress at a rate that will achieve energy returns at pre-'70s oil and beyond to counter diminishing returns.


Please provide a reference for the definitive claim of "technofixes will have to progress at a rate that will achieve energy returns at pre-'70s oil and beyond to counter diminishing returns".

Any footnote worthy reference with that concept in the intro, abstract, body or conclusions will do. Then we can discuss the data, thought, and assumptions that went into the statement from the author.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 02 Dec 2019, 13:08:36

ralfy wrote:For a goo-free future, they will have to compress what should take around 130 years of transition in only one or two decades, and without fighting.


We don't need a completely "goo-free future" to blunt the sort of peak oil doom that was on the mind of the OP when he posted the emotional headline.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby evilgenius » Mon 02 Dec 2019, 16:19:30

EV's are scary for a particular reason, they would really strain the capacity of the current system to support them. Beyond the power plants, I think there would have to be a build out on at least the scale of the fiber build out we saw when the internet was expanding, only this one would have to go the last mile as well. It would be on as least that scale, but probably larger. Electrical transmission lines are much larger than fiber, and less efficient. If that didn't happen, I think at certain times of the year, like when it is really hot, the system could encounter brown, or black, outs. Also, where housing is very dense, like in large apartment buildings or other such situations where many people live together and don't always have dedicated parking, charging cars would be more problematic. It could be worked out, but some of the solutions might cause us to realign our society.
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Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 02 Dec 2019, 23:40:26

evilgenius wrote:EV's are scary for a particular reason, they would really strain the capacity of the current system to support them.


Any technology transition seems insurmountably huge in scale at first. But that's why things happen gradually over time.

evilgenius wrote:It could be worked out, but some of the solutions might cause us to realign our society.


The transition isn't just about consumption, though.

One of the problems in, let's say, California, is that there's already so much solar adoption with grid-tie that they have nowhere for the electricity to go during peak sunlight.

This is one reason why Tesla has a stationary storage business.

Developing a smarter grid is going to be a key part of the 21st century.

Utilities have to be aware of what's on the horizon here. If they sleepwalk into brownouts or just erect a bunch more natural gas and coal plants they are doing a pretty piss poor job.

Likewise, the major automakers (save most Japanese ones) know electrification is the future. Sure, they are making as much money from the ICE as they can, but they have a strategy in place and they are making very big investments. What we have now is merely the calm before the storm.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby ralfy » Tue 03 Dec 2019, 22:08:44

A global population with most in urban areas and driving EVs around will require in terms of energy and material resources the equivalent of several more earths.
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Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 03 Dec 2019, 22:19:39

ralfy wrote:A global population with most in urban areas and driving EVs around will require in terms of energy and material resources the equivalent of several more earths.


Why do people insist on slinging broad statements like this with no supporting data?

Look at it this way. The well-to-wheel efficiency of EVs is greater than ICE. That is a well-known fact. So even if every car on the road today were suddenly an EV rather than an ICE, the the total amount of energy consumed would DECREASE.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 03 Dec 2019, 23:38:26

ralfy wrote:A global population with most in urban areas and driving EVs around will require in terms of energy and material resources the equivalent of several more earths.


Good thing that there is no requirement in the future of most living in urban areas, or driving EVs. I'm feeling terribly rural myself, as I get closer to retirement age.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 03 Dec 2019, 23:41:44

asg70 wrote:
ralfy wrote:A global population with most in urban areas and driving EVs around will require in terms of energy and material resources the equivalent of several more earths.


Why do people insist on slinging broad statements like this with no supporting data?


I've already asked for a footnote type reference for anyone substantiating a ralfy claim, just to see what the assumptions in the document were.

Ralfy is pretty old school, we can't forget where he learned everything he knew about peak oil and doom and whatnot. At the hand of everyone's favorite astrologist.

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Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 04 Dec 2019, 00:45:40

Most doomer arguments focus on extreme all-or-nothing propositions. Few here are debating whether humanity can reach some sort of magic Amory Lovins green-tech equilibrium. That ship sailed some time ago. What we have emerging now is a combination of brown and green tech solutions as outlined in the book Future Scenarios.

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Brown props up the existing system and therefore subsidizes/bootstraps green. A pure green endeavor like Tesla results in historic levels of debt whereas the major automakers are able to subsidize a gradual transition via their ICE sales. That is why there's a part of me that grudgingly has to appreciate the fracking boom, despite it all, because without it maybe we would have been dealing with mutant zombie bikers by now.

Doomers are so stuck in their heads that they can't let go of their ideals long enough to understand the various compromised approaches that are already well underway to kick consequences down the road. Some of them are still clinging to unpopular ideas like powerdown which have been proven to be non-starters.

Does any of this mean those consequences will no longer happen? Not at all, just that we have proven that we will pursue any and all can-kicking techniques to maintain as much of our current per capita creature comfort and convenience for as long as possible, and that we still have some tricks up our sleeves.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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