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PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 29 Nov 2019, 14:52:47

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
AdamB wrote:Looks like the US isn't even a quarter of the world's assessed areas.
You could very well be correct. In which case between the USGS estimates of 500+ billion barrels of oil laying around in Venezuela that has socialist nitwits involved, USGS estimates of 500+ billion in reserve growth internationally, and now this 300+ billion, it sure looks like most of it will end up being left in the ground when peak demand clobbers the need for it.

Oh sure, I agree much of it (and hopefully most of it) might well be left in the ground. I'm just saying that the usual doomer FUD that as soon as the US fracking boom peters out we're right back to the ususal supply cliff doom re peak oil isn't exactly baked in -- same as it ever was since the early 70's. Supply and demand DO work, whether the doomers like the implications re resistance to economic insta-doom, or not.


What is "FUD"? Based on context, it looks to be related to making up random scenarios that all lead to doom?

The perma-insta doom part I get. It is a defining characteristic....take fact...oil is produced....manufacture interesting story ending in TEOTWAEKI. It seemed to attract more converts to the church in the bad old days, was quite popular for awhile.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 29 Nov 2019, 14:56:08

Daniel Doom wrote:
asg70 wrote:I watched most of the video. The guy makes some good points but as someone pushing oil assets he definitely is driven by conflict-of-interest

DD: Ho-hum. Please address his data.


Indeed. I already asked you this question. Does he dispute the data and analysis previously provided by organizations with experience doing this kind of work, or not?
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Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 29 Nov 2019, 15:06:39

Daniel Doom wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
AdamB wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote: the usual doomer FUD that as soon as the US fracking boom peters out we're right back to the ususal supply cliff doom re peak oil isn't exactly baked in -- same as it ever was since the early 70's.


Spare us the disinformation. I remember the seventies. Sure, the hippies, etc., were saying crazy stuff like the oil would all be gone by 2000, but not the geologists.


The President of the United States, and his scientific experts (who at the time included Hubbert) weren't hippies. And it isn't crazy stuff when it is in Presdential speeches and whatnot to the nation. World running out of oil by the end of the 1980's.

The disinformation is either your ignorance of such sources, or a need to spread your own brand of disinformation. Which do you prefer to explain the quote?

Daniel Doom wrote: If you listened to the interview that inspired this thread, you may remember that Fatih Birol of the IEA said that fracking would not bail us out of the crisis this time.


If you are familiar with what Fatih Birol claims you also know he proclaimed global peak oil in 2006. You really want to use a certified peak oiler with the usual peak oil track record as a source? Are you familiar with what Fatih Birol just just released or even both to attend the presentation?

I've got a copy of the WEO2019. Would you like some interesting quotes demonstrating that the IEA thinks that the US is going to continue to produce far more oil than even the EIA is projecting, well into the future?

Daniel Doom wrote:Maybe we'll develop another high cost unconventional energy resource (a geological subsidy) that will let us have another modest recovery (and the current post-fracking economic "revival" has been modest indeed!), but, if so, several years later we will be right back where we started, in the throes of another crisis. You can only kick the can down the road so far until you run out of road.


What crisis? The last energy crisis in the US was in the 1970's. I remember the rationing in Pennsylvania. Certainly nothing since then has come close, claims of doom and gloom being just that.
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Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby Daniel Doom » Fri 29 Nov 2019, 15:31:27

AdamB wrote:
Daniel Doom wrote:
Zarquon wrote:(go watch Crude Awakening, and compare that to the reality that followed, as just one example)

DD: You mean the reality that oil zoomed up to USD147 a barrel and the world entered the worst recession since the Great Depression? You are only faulting the Crude Awakening documentary because it did not foresee the development of fracking that would buy us another decade of relief but you conveniently overlook that NOBODY ELSE foresaw that development either OR that a 10 or 12 year window of recovery in no way nullifies the peak oil thesis in the big scheme of things. It's like your football team is down 49 to 0 and you suddenly start exclaiming, "We're going to win after all!" when it kicks a field goal with 5 minutes remaining in the game. Hey, just 46 more points to go!

Peakzilla wrote:The title of my thread describes the interview well: the peak is back, baby!


AdamB: Titles can't be counted on to have anything to do with the video.

DD: In this case, it does, as I have already said. Trust me.

Peakvilla wrote:And you will be pleased (or perhaps displeased) to find that Mr. Gordon, a professional energy analyst, relies on perfectly mainstream sources such as WoodMac and Goldman Sachs, among others.


AdamB: So you are saying you have 1 guy to stack up against WoodMac, Rystad, Barclays, CSIS, and as of late DNL-GV?

DD: As I wrote above, Mark Gordon relies on mainstream sources, including, *as I wrote*, WoodMac specifically. *Also*, the last time we debated this I pointed out that WoodMac agreed with me, not you, saying that global oil demand would increase by 12 million barrels a day by 2035, so no global peak demand between now and then, and you ignored WoodMac that time too. Are you actually reading what WoodMac says or just skimming their headlines? You are the one who needs to rebut sources such as WoodMac in order to make your point:

https://www.woodmac.com/news/feature/th ... lack-gold/
Demand for oil in developed countries will revert to structural decline by 2020, wiping out about four million barrels per day by 2035. In contrast, developing economies will increase their demand for oil by nearly 16 million barrels per day by 2035.[end quote]

DD: Please do the math: 16mb/d minus 4mb/d equals a 12mb/d *increase* in global demand by 2035. Of source, if prices rise enough to choke off demand, or if supply cannot keep up for technical reaons, we may not actually get there.

WoodMac also says that EV production will not ramp up quickly. In 2030, they expect EV's to make up only 10% of cars on the road, maybe less:
https://www.woodmac.com/news/editorial/ ... evolution/

Although I do consider WoodMac to be optimistic, they are also guarded, apparently trying to straddle the fence between looking like unfashionable alarmists now and clueless pollyannas later, so you are overstating the optimism of the sources you claim to rely on. Although hesitant to stick out their necks very far, they nevertheless favor Gordon's arguments better than yours. Show us where Gordon (and WoodMac) are wrong.
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Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 29 Nov 2019, 15:55:46

Daniel Doom wrote:WoodMac also says that EV production will not ramp up quickly.


And why should we care? Did you read my reply? You can't just appeal to one authority and ignore any competing evidence.

"Experts" have their blind-spots.

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Digest information from several sources rather than just locking in sync with and citing only one.

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Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 29 Nov 2019, 17:11:26

AdamB wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:Oh sure, I agree much of it (and hopefully most of it) might well be left in the ground. I'm just saying that the usual doomer FUD that as soon as the US fracking boom peters out we're right back to the ususal supply cliff doom re peak oil isn't exactly baked in -- same as it ever was since the early 70's. Supply and demand DO work, whether the doomers like the implications re resistance to economic insta-doom, or not.


What is "FUD"? Based on context, it looks to be related to making up random scenarios that all lead to doom?

The perma-insta doom part I get. It is a defining characteristic....take fact...oil is produced....manufacture interesting story ending in TEOTWAEKI. It seemed to attract more converts to the church in the bad old days, was quite popular for awhile.

Yes, you got the context right. I just meant that "scenarios that all lead to doom" in the context of them trying to claim that THIS TIME, the "doom" is from the fact that, real soon now, there will be a shortage of US frackable oil, AND that there just isn't "enough" anywhere else to make up for it -- AND of course, that higher prices won't help (as I maintain they certainly will, as per usual), because of the old "oil if unaffordable at current prices" endless mantra.

There were certainly more people hanging around preaching such insta-doom in the bad old days, but there certainly is a decent proportion of folks showing such thinking still today. For some, it is more muted, becoming more vocal at the first sign of what looks like stress on the system. (Again, as though the pricing mechanism can't possibly help fix that THIS time, because "debt", etc.)
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 29 Nov 2019, 20:04:18

AdamB wrote:What is "FUD"? Based on context, it looks to be related to making up random scenarios that all lead to doom?

The perma-insta doom part I get. It is a defining characteristic....take fact...oil is produced....manufacture interesting story ending in TEOTWAEKI. It seemed to attract more converts to the church in the bad old days, was quite popular for awhile.


Webopedia Definition:

FUD is an acronym for fear, uncertainty and doubt. It is a marketing term that is often used to cast a shadow over a competitor's product when your own is unable to compete. FUD is a technique used by larger companies who have a large market share. The FUD acronym was first freely defined by Gene Amdahl after he left IBM to found his own company, Amdahl Corp, with this statement: "FUD is the fear, uncertainty, and doubt that IBM sales people instill in the minds of potential customers who might be considering Amdahl products."
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Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 30 Nov 2019, 00:53:02

Daniel Doom wrote:DD: As I wrote above, Mark Gordon relies on mainstream sources, including, *as I wrote*, WoodMac specifically. *Also*, the last time we debated this I pointed out that WoodMac agreed with me, not you, saying that global oil demand would increase by 12 million barrels a day by 2035, so no global peak demand between now and then, and you ignored WoodMac that time too. Are you actually reading what WoodMac says or just skimming their headlines? You are the one who needs to rebut sources such as WoodMac in order to make your point:


WoodMac does have a 2035 peak demand date. Other references have it as soon as 3. The point being that demand is now the driving factor of peak oil, not scarcity.

Daniel Doom wrote:DD: Please do the math: 16mb/d minus 4mb/d equals a 12mb/d *increase* in global demand by 2035. Of source, if prices rise enough to choke off demand, or if supply cannot keep up for technical reaons, we may not actually get there.


With others declaring peak demand within 3 years, I guess the one thing we can count on is that scarcity certainly isn't the issue.

Daniel Doom wrote: Show us where Gordon (and WoodMac) are wrong.


I never said WoodMac was wrong, I said they, and some others, are now declaring peak demand. I have no information on your reference other than you recommend watching a video of him. What are this Gordon's credentials, in terms of past experience?
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Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 30 Nov 2019, 10:08:05

Stop trying to attach yourself to peak oil because if and when it happens, oil prices will go UP, not down. So you lack any and all credibility with your ETP nonsense.


The Horror!! If this birds stupidity is the result of a mutated, dominate gene, the human race will look like a colony of gophers in a very few generations! Fortunately, as most of them are carrying fleas, the plague is likely to eliminate the majority of these degenerates. In this particular instance it would be beneficial to mankind if it arrived early.

The US imports 6+ mb/d of crude, and exports 3 of LTO. If it could import 3, and export 0 it would save $15.6 billion per year in transportation costs. That equals 30% of the industry's total world wide profit margin. It is highly likely that it has already crossed their minds?? They can't do that because condensate, and crude are not interchangeable.

The world has already passed Peak Crude. According to the IEA decline in existing conventional formations is 4.5% per year. If correct, production of conventional black oil is falling by 3.6 mb/d. LTO condensate is increasing by a little over 1.5 mb/d. Peak Oil, as in the sum of Peak Crude, and Peak Condensate is already here.

87% of all the energy that will ever be extracted from petroleum has already been removed. The last 13% will be in conjunction with a failing economy. Development of the greatest depression in history is already very self evident. A modern economy buried in irreconcilable, and growing debt with a failing energy supply has no future.
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Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 30 Nov 2019, 10:18:18

shortonoil wrote:If this birds stupidity is the result of a mutated, dominate gene, the human race will look like a colony of gophers in a very few generations! Fortunately, as most of them are carrying fleas, the plague is likely to eliminate the majority of these degenerates. In this particular instance it would be beneficial to mankind if it arrived early.


THIS sort of gibberish is why I keep you on ignore.

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Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 30 Nov 2019, 10:21:51

https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2019/11/29/ ... hFOhfRNUjY

Governments Need to Face Reality — the Fossil Fuel Industry Is Collapsing

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Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 30 Nov 2019, 10:34:36

shortonoil wrote:The US imports 6+ mb/d of crude, and exports 3 of LTO.


US net imports of crude oil and petroleum products were negative in the latest data, September 2019.

Net current crude oil and petroleum products being negative means that we exported more than we imported. American energy independence is just about here. Sooner than the EIA projected, if memory serves.

Being a welsher is bad enough, stop taking bad math lessons from Steve St Angelo, it will only you look like a ignorant welsher.
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Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 30 Nov 2019, 10:37:17

onlooker wrote:https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2019/11/29/Government-Face-Reality-Fossil-Fuel-Industry-Collapsing/?fbclid=IwAR3CwSKeOYUb06k2pY3xSAs8hFAqoOeLXuP6jrxmvvfuHkhKLhFOhfRNUjY

Governments Need to Face Reality — the Fossil Fuel Industry Is Collapsing



Except for all the Saudi America stuff going on of course. And lower prices. And peak oil demand on the horizon, which by the way might be conflated with the fossil fuel industry collapsing, but the article provided doesn't appear to have an an analyst capable enough to have made that obvious deductive leap.
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Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 30 Nov 2019, 15:08:44

AdamB wrote:
onlooker wrote:https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2019/11/29/Government-Face-Reality-Fossil-Fuel-Industry-Collapsing/?fbclid=IwAR3CwSKeOYUb06k2pY3xSAs8hFAqoOeLXuP6jrxmvvfuHkhKLhFOhfRNUjY

Governments Need to Face Reality — the Fossil Fuel Industry Is Collapsing



Except for all the Saudi America stuff going on of course. And lower prices. And peak oil demand on the horizon, which by the way might be conflated with the fossil fuel industry collapsing, but the article provided doesn't appear to have an an analyst capable enough to have made that obvious deductive leap.

The peak oil doomer fast crasher types will endlessly yammer their mantra. Facts on the ground are ignored if they interfere with their narrative. Same as it ever was. :roll:


And yeah, industries changing doesn't imply collapse. Example: aside from those making buggy whips, how much of society ran around with their hair on fire as 99% of the buggy whip industry COLLAPSED during the time much of first world society rapidly moved from horses to cars?

And yet, if this were happening today, zerobrains and all the rest would be having 9 kinds of a FIT.
:lol:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby ralfy » Sat 30 Nov 2019, 22:35:55

Most of the world lack infrastructure for transport, food production, manufacturing, sanitation, water, electricity, etc. The amount of energy and resources needed to provide for that is equivalent to an additional earth.

Throw in EVs (which require more infrastructure) as well as middle class conveniences (like the Internet, electronic gadgets, furnished homes, and leisurely trips), then even more will be needed.

Given that, peak demand is highly unlikely. If it drops, it will do so with consumption, as resource supply issues take place due to diminishing returns, increasing human population, and pollution. In time, population decline will follow.
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Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 30 Nov 2019, 23:02:32

ralfy wrote:Most of the world lack infrastructure for transport, food production, manufacturing, sanitation, water, electricity, etc. The amount of energy and resources needed to provide for that is equivalent to an additional earth.


Good thing this isn't a Peak Earth website then! :)

ralfy wrote:Throw in EVs (which require more infrastructure) as well as middle class conveniences (like the Internet, electronic gadgets, furnished homes, and leisurely trips), then even more will be needed.


More...Earths...?

ralfy wrote:Given that, peak demand is highly unlikely.


We've already discussed this. You saying it is not the kind of analysis provided by WoodMac, Rystad, Barclays or the analysis on demand deceleration that CSIS was talking about 6 months ago.

ralfy wrote:If it drops, it will do so with consumption, as resource supply issues take place due to diminishing returns, increasing human population, and pollution. In time, population decline will follow.


You are claiming the standard scarcity angle. The above mentioned references do not. With data and analysis and computers and smart people and stuff.
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Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby evilgenius » Sun 01 Dec 2019, 11:08:20

I think the ocean floor has plenty of cobalt. It won't be too difficult to mine. The trouble comes from the environmental impact. Mining causes huge clouds of silt to blow up, which destroy the tiny creatures that rely upon filtering out nutrients from the water. The revolution could come from figuring out how to mine the seafloor nodules without sending up huge silt clouds. Maybe they will figure out how to use suction dredges to do it? Gold mining uses those. It takes a very powerful setup to go very deep, though, and currently needs divers to operate. The cobalt nodules are not that deep, and are pretty much on the surface, but they are deeper than most suction dredging can currently go, especially with divers. I can think of ways to get over that, so I'm certain those with the capital to go and mine can too.

I'm curious about the subject of peak oil coming back to the fore. I wonder if it would cause off shore to sore, for instance? Maybe some other section of the industry would benefit? Stock prices are generally depressed. If it happens, this could be one of those rare opportunities to make a fortune. Risk/reward, though. It could just as easily take place over a backdrop of falling prices, for various reasons. As usual, diversification seems like a prudent approach.
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Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 01 Dec 2019, 11:38:33

evilgenius wrote:I'm curious about the subject of peak oil coming back to the fore.


Me too! After they all crawled back under their rocks it seemed like that was the end of it.

But as the economists have always known (or even those who can read a supply/demand chart) there are two ways to create a peak. The neo-Malthusian gang has dominated the conversation for a century now, Amy Jaffe in 2015 began discussing the other side of the coin. Now, some heavyweight think tanks are jumping in. Not all of them, but some organizations that make ASPO-USA look like kindergarten kids in their analytic capabilities.

evigenius wrote: I wonder if it would cause off shore to sore, for instance? Maybe some other section of the industry would benefit? Stock prices are generally depressed. If it happens, this could be one of those rare opportunities to make a fortune. Risk/reward, though. It could just as easily take place over a backdrop of falling prices, for various reasons. As usual, diversification seems like a prudent approach.


Darn right! And buying an EV means..who cares!! Fuel it in the garage, don't care what oil prices are, it is like win-win regardless of which reason ends up being right.
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Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby GHung » Sun 01 Dec 2019, 13:55:27

If battery tech progresses as expected and much higher capacity systems become mainstream (solid-state batteries with faster charge rates at lower cost), this conversation will become obsolete along with most uses of internal combustion engines. Oil monkeys will be begging for new uses for their goo,, or just begging out on the streets.
This assumes that our other essential systems (climate, ecological, economic, food.....) don't accelerate their collapses first. Not a very safe assumption, IMO.
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Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 01 Dec 2019, 21:07:16

AdamB wrote:Darn right! And buying an EV means..who cares!!


Well, the EV smugness only works up to a point. If you're the only one buying an EV and the rest of civilization crumbles around you, it won't really matter. And while the classic peak oil mantra that oil is the be all / end all is a bit overstated, it's used for a lot beyond just transportation. High oil prices do have a knock-on effect on the economy even if you disregard transportation. So you still have to care, just not AS much.

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