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PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby Daniel Doom » Thu 28 Nov 2019, 22:14:10

Pray for me, as I do not believe I will be able to resist the moral temptation of gloating over the fast approaching discomfiture of the delusional peak-demand-means-cheap-oil-forever crowd. Everyone needs to view this podcast twice and take notes:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dhc6vyxVsDs

8O :shock: :?
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Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby Zarquon » Thu 28 Nov 2019, 22:40:00

Sorry, but I won't waste any time watching videos if the person recommending them doesn't even bother telling me what the heck they're about.
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Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 28 Nov 2019, 22:45:35

Zarquon wrote:Sorry, but I won't waste any time watching videos if the person recommending them doesn't even bother telling me what the heck they're about.


Ditto.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby ralfy » Thu 28 Nov 2019, 22:49:25

Given the lack of economic development worldwide, peak demand is highly unlikely.
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Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 28 Nov 2019, 23:19:22

ralfy wrote:Given the lack of economic development worldwide, peak demand is highly unlikely.


Well, CSIS, Rystad, Barclays, WoodMac, Tony Seba and DNV-GL being the latest might disagree.

Admittedly, all these folks have rooms of smart analysts, top notch data, computer models and experience trying to ferret out these kinds of important details for their client's economic outlooks...but undoubtedly they forgot that economic development might somehow be involved in there, those silly gooses!
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby Daniel Doom » Fri 29 Nov 2019, 11:28:35

Zarquon wrote:Sorry, but I won't waste any time watching videos if the person recommending them doesn't even bother telling me what the heck they're about.


Afraid of having your pollyannish preconceptions thrown into upheaval? The title of my thread describes the interview well: the peak is back, baby! And you will be pleased (or perhaps displeased) to find that Mr. Gordon, a professional energy analyst, relies on perfectly mainstream sources such as WoodMac and Goldman Sachs, among others. He says that fracking only bought us a few years time, that frackable resources will not be sufficient to ramp up production and get us out of the next crisis, that the upward price inflection is likely to hit in 2020 and peakomania (my word) will return in force in 2021. And the beneficial effect of every EV sold thus far has been completely cancelled out by the upsurge in SUV buying during this period of subdued fuel prices. He says finding cobalt resources for a vast increase in EV's will also be challenging. Peak supply will drive peak demand, not the other way around.
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Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 29 Nov 2019, 11:57:25

Daniel Doom wrote:
Zarquon wrote:Sorry, but I won't waste any time watching videos if the person recommending them doesn't even bother telling me what the heck they're about.


Afraid of having your pollyannish preconceptions thrown into upheaval?


Hardly. My time is valuable. Sitting around wasting it because someone can't provide a footnote to their point (something videos rarely have, therefore placing them by default into the "gee I can mindless speculate because I'm in stupid media!" bin (go watch Crude Awakening, and compare that to the reality that followed, as just one example) let alone make the point itself is the worst of social media.

Peakzilla wrote:The title of my thread describes the interview well: the peak is back, baby!


Titles can't be counted on to have anything to do with the video. Example: As perfect an explanation for the events of this century as any you'll ever find.

Peakvilla wrote:And you will be pleased (or perhaps displeased) to find that Mr. Gordon, a professional energy analyst, relies on perfectly mainstream sources such as WoodMac and Goldman Sachs, among others. He says that fracking only bought us a few years time, that frackable resources will not be sufficient to ramp up production and get us out of the next crisis, that the upward price inflection is likely to hit in 2020 and peakomania (my word) will return in force in 2021. And the beneficial effect of every EV sold thus far has been completely cancelled out by the upsurge in SUV buying during this period of subdued fuel prices. He says finding cobalt resources for a vast increase in EV's will also be challenging. Peak supply will drive peak demand, not the other way around.


So you are saying you have 1 guy to stack up against WoodMac, Rystad, Barclays, CSIS, and as of late DNL-GV?

Pray tell, how many of their specifics does he refute? If he did his work and lists his analysis refuting their data, I'll watch the video.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 29 Nov 2019, 12:59:30

I watched most of the video. The guy makes some good points but as someone pushing oil assets he definitely is driven by conflict-of-interest (his anti-BEV talking points are all boilerplate FUD, for instance). But to be fair, Tony Seba's narrative is just as biased on the other end of the spectrum. The truth will probably settle somewhere in the middle. The fracking boom may indeed not have that much legs to it anymore, and we may have another oil shock (hopefully silencing the ETP die-hard nuts for good), but I actually think this would be the best possible thing to happen as it would spur on EV sales at a time when companies like VW are just ramping up.

I do think the established automakers should not be lulled into thinking the ICE SUV boom will last forever. They should all at least have contingency plans to rapidly electrify. And that doesn't necessarily mean switching to dedicated skateboard chassis. They just have to be powerplant agnostic like the Kona/Niro, which, although not ideal, is still perfectly workable as long as you can wedge a big enough pack into them. That way they can leverage existing assembly lines and tooling.

The biggest losers in all this will be the normies who are tooling around in newly purchased gas guzzlers. Stupidity personified.

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-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 29 Nov 2019, 13:04:02

He says that fracking only bought us a few years time, that frackable resources will not be sufficient to ramp up production and get us out of the next crisis, that the upward price inflection is likely to hit in 2020 and peakomania (my word) will return in force in 2021.


Unfortunately fracking never could alleviate the crude crisis. That was a myth perpetrated by the industry to raise funds, and gain public support for a very environmentally destructive process. Fracking was never intended to replace crude. Fracking was intended to supplement the industry's condensate supply.

The EIA, IEA, and about 2 million petroleum suppliers refer to C&C; crude and condensate. They do so because they are different substances, with different molecular structures, and they perform different functions during the petroleum production process. Crude is a liquid when it is extracted from the ground; condensate is extracted as a gas. The heavier fractions in the gas are condensed out of the gas as it cools; hence the name condensate. Condensate supply began becoming a problem for the industry about 20 years ago as new field development began to decline. Historically condensate has been produced from the associated gas of new well development, and from natural gas production. Crude supplies the vital C7+ molecules needed to produce fuels, and condensate acts as the diluting agent to make the process possible. They are both essential to the petroleum production process, but they are not interchangeable. Crude is NOT condensate, and condensate is NOT crude.

The term Peak Oil is a misnomer. It refers to neither Peak Crude, nor Peak Condensate, but to the sum of both. A lack of either would make the production of finished fuels impossible. With the majority of the Giants (the handful of mega fields that supply 60% of the world's crude now in catastrophic decline) Peak crude is already a reality. Peak Oil is following close behind!

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Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 29 Nov 2019, 13:10:40

Even when I attached Tony's video to my sig line a year or more back, I would have graded him a little optimistic as well. His arguments are primarily economic, with the assumption of terribly quick adaptation. Sorry, but some folks aren't buying EVs just because, I feel that pull and I've been in the hybrids and then EV game for more than a decade now. When I think how I like to travel that isn't local it's Wrangler, Grand Cherokee, motorcycle, not Tesla car or truck.

But he is probably spot on about the sheer disruption EVs are going to cause with more competition and lower prices. Just as phones and cameras in them put Kodak out of business within a decade, the same is likely to happen to all sorts of groups as transportation continues trending towards a service.

It is terribly difficult right now to find a local auto repair shop to do what I would call "old school" repairs on the kids car. Put a crowbar on that piece of metal to move it aside, grind that down a little to fit. I can't take my computer on wheels to anyplace but the dealer.
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Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 29 Nov 2019, 13:13:23

shortonoil wrote:Peak crude is already a reality. Peak Oil is following close behind!


Stop trying to attach yourself to peak oil because if and when it happens, oil prices will go UP, not down. So you lack any and all credibility with your ETP nonsense.

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-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
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Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 29 Nov 2019, 13:20:03

ralfy wrote:Given the lack of economic development worldwide, peak demand is highly unlikely.

So in your mind, electric transport isn't "a thing"?

Petrochemical use will no doubt expand greatly re global demand over the coming decades. But if the negative demand re crude oil from global transport is a greater factor beyond some point (say beyond 2030 or so when electric transport will become a large proportion of personal transport), then the net global demand from oil will fall.

Do you think the experts who calculate such things re demographics, etc. don't consider such basic ideas as global economic development, and the future projections for it?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 29 Nov 2019, 13:26:56

shortonoil wrote:
He says that fracking only bought us a few years time, that frackable resources will not be sufficient to ramp up production and get us out of the next crisis, that the upward price inflection is likely to hit in 2020 and peakomania (my word) will return in force in 2021.


Unfortunately fracking never could alleviate the crude crisis.


But it sure could make claimants of prices going to near zero look incompetent.

shortonoil wrote: Fracking was intended to supplement the industry's condensate supply.


As a completion engineer I didn't do a single stage of a multi-stage completion, ever, to do anything for industry. And I wanted nothing to do with condensate, only crude, lease condensate, and natural gas. Where did you get this information from, a crackerjack box? Maybe you asked Steve St Angelo?

shortonoil wrote:The Hills Group


Hey! Weren't those the discredited guys that had to remove all their work from the web because the main author used it to make a bet, and when he lost the bet he welshed? Talk about embarrassing!!

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Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 29 Nov 2019, 13:31:46

asg70 wrote:I watched most of the video. The guy makes some good points but as someone pushing oil assets he definitely is driven by conflict-of-interest (his anti-BEV talking points are all boilerplate FUD, for instance). But to be fair, Tony Seba's narrative is just as biased on the other end of the spectrum. The truth will probably settle somewhere in the middle. The fracking boom may indeed not have that much legs to it anymore, and we may have another oil shock (hopefully silencing the ETP die-hard nuts for good), but I actually think this would be the best possible thing to happen as it would spur on EV sales at a time when companies like VW are just ramping up.

That all sound reasonable on the surface, EXCEPT for one key point.

IF we do have a new "oil shock" (which is entirely possible, IMO), that implies substantially higher oil prices. Instead of "crashing the economy" as the fast crash doomers claim. This will make the incentive to frack oil GLOBALLY much much stronger. (I'm assuming global crude prices, say, around $150 and persistently, if the "oil shock" has legs, re your scenario. Even at $100+ish persistently, I think that changes the balance re the attractiveness of pursuing global frackable crude deposits.) And the reality is, it's not like the gas-guzzler buying public can't afford it, much less those who can buy a Camry HEV if push comes to shove).

I think the US isn't even close to being, magically, the only place significant frackable oil reserves exist -- I think it's only a matter of the price getting to a point that the risk/reward and the rules (such as European bans) change enough for the majors to decide to go after it in a serious way. Once they do that, the learning curve and therefore extraction cost curve (re efficiency) will tend to kick in, just as it has for crude fracking in the US.

I could be wrong, of course, but I believe that is the most likely scenario. From books I've read, the doomer theory that frackable oil only exists in meaningful quantity in the US makes FAR less sense than the idea that the US was first due to entrepreneurial spirit and accessible capital being at hand in the US first.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 29 Nov 2019, 13:37:02

Outcast_Searcher wrote:I think the US isn't even close to being, magically, the only place significant frackable oil reserves exist -- I think it's only a matter of the price getting to a point that the risk/reward and the rules (such as European bans) change enough for the majors to decide to go after it in a serious way. Once they do that, the learning curve and therefore extraction cost curve (re efficiency) will tend to kick in, just as it has for crude fracking in the US.


Looks like the US isn't even a quarter of the world's assessed areas.

You could very well be correct. In which case between the USGS estimates of 500+ billion barrels of oil laying around in Venezuela that has socialist nitwits involved, USGS estimates of 500+ billion in reserve growth internationally, and now this 300+ billion, it sure looks like most of it will end up being left in the ground when peak demand clobbers the need for it.
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Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 29 Nov 2019, 13:41:44

AdamB wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:I think the US isn't even close to being, magically, the only place significant frackable oil reserves exist -- I think it's only a matter of the price getting to a point that the risk/reward and the rules (such as European bans) change enough for the majors to decide to go after it in a serious way. Once they do that, the learning curve and therefore extraction cost curve (re efficiency) will tend to kick in, just as it has for crude fracking in the US.


Looks like the US isn't even a quarter of the world's assessed areas.

You could very well be correct. In which case between the USGS estimates of 500+ billion barrels of oil laying around in Venezuela that has socialist nitwits involved, USGS estimates of 500+ billion in reserve growth internationally, and now this 300+ billion, it sure looks like most of it will end up being left in the ground when peak demand clobbers the need for it.

Oh sure, I agree much of it (and hopefully most of it) might well be left in the ground. I'm just saying that the usual doomer FUD that as soon as the US fracking boom peters out we're right back to the ususal supply cliff doom re peak oil isn't exactly baked in -- same as it ever was since the early 70's. Supply and demand DO work, whether the doomers like the implications re resistance to economic insta-doom, or not.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby Daniel Doom » Fri 29 Nov 2019, 13:48:44

[quote="asg70"]I watched most of the video. The guy makes some good points but as someone pushing oil assets he definitely is driven by conflict-of-interest

DD: Ho-hum. Please address his data.

asg70: (his anti-BEV talking points are all boilerplate FUD, for instance).

DD: FUD is your friend. Boilerplate talking points are not the same thing as incorrect talking points. Please address the data.

asg70: automakers...should all at least have contingency plans to rapidly electrify.

DD: Can't be done rapidly. WoodMac says it will be "challenging" for EV's to reach even 10% market penetration by 2030. The reason? Not enough cobalt and nickel. The industry will stall unless new cobalt and nickel resources are discovered and developed.

QUOTE: Supply side challenges for battery raw materials and development of batteries may put the brakes on the EV revolution – our analysis suggests there is not enough 'stuff' to go around.

Demand for lithium remains strong and base case capacity is set to ramp up in the longer term. However, the supply picture for nickel and cobalt is far more challenging.

AND: Achieving EV penetration rates of over 10% by 2030 with the current battery technologies presents a challenge.

https://www.woodmac.com/news/editorial/ ... evolution/
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Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 29 Nov 2019, 13:51:18

I think the US isn't even close to being, magically, the only place significant frackable oil reserves exist -- I think it's only a matter of the price getting to a point that the risk/reward and the rules (such as European bans) change enough for the majors to decide to go after it in a serious way. Once they do that, the learning curve and therefore extraction cost curve (re efficiency) will tend to kick in, just as it has for crude fracking in the US.


the issue isn't the availability of potentially frackable oil as there are many places oil companies are well aware that have significant resources: Algeria, Argentina, Russia, China, Saudi Arabia, Libya, Australia, Poland, Hungary, etc. Nor is it the technology to get the job done as that doesn't vary much from what has been developed in the US and Canada already. The issue is access (as an example Algeria shales are the domain only of Sonatrach the national oil company) and lack of infrastructure (Argentina has arguably as much or more shale resource than the US but very little in the way of infrastructure and little in the way of necessary small service companies that can drive costs down). Presumably, there would be an impetus on the part of these countries to improve regulations that get in the way of the necessary access and infrastructure if the price rose high enough. That being said not all shales are created equal. As an example the Ordovician and Silurian shales in northern Poland which everyone had so much hope for turn out to behave plastically under deformation, hence fracks do not work as well and rates are significantly reduced.
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Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby Daniel Doom » Fri 29 Nov 2019, 14:24:29

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
AdamB wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote: the usual doomer FUD that as soon as the US fracking boom peters out we're right back to the ususal supply cliff doom re peak oil isn't exactly baked in -- same as it ever was since the early 70's.


Spare us the disinformation. I remember the seventies. Sure, the hippies, etc., were saying crazy stuff like the oil would all be gone by 2000, but not the geologists. The geologists knew we had made major oil discoveries in the late 1960s' in the North Sea, the Alaska north slope, and western Siberia in the USSR, and that they just had to be developed. That's why Nixon started the crash project of building the Alaska pipeline (and paying out ridiculous amounts of overtime in the process--sometimes more overtime than there were hours in the week!). In another 10 years, the oil was back and OPEC was sidelined.

But this time we don't have vast new discoveries waiting to be developed, except for Russia's undeveloped tight oil field, and the Permian can still increase production quite a bit, but that's about it; further, it will take years for Russia to develop its tight oil resource, and by then conventional fields will be down quite a bit.

And we just don't have enough cobalt and nickel for EV's to ramp up dramatically. If there are new cobalt and nickel resources out there, it will take many years to find and develop them--"if."

If you listened to the interview that inspired this thread, you may remember that Fatih Birol of the IEA said that fracking would not bail us out of the crisis this time. 2020 is not in any way a replay of 1970, or even of the early days of fracking. Peak oil, peak nickel, peak cobalt, peak silver for high efficiency PV cells, peak coal, peak U235--here we come! Sure, we still have nat gas, but the faster we use it, the sooner it too shall peak.

Maybe we'll develop another high cost unconventional energy resource (a geological subsidy) that will let us have another modest recovery (and the current post-fracking economic "revival" has been modest indeed!), but, if so, several years later we will be right back where we started, in the throes of another crisis. You can only kick the can down the road so far until you run out of road.
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Re: PEAKZILLA: Back From the Dead!!!

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 29 Nov 2019, 14:42:38

Outcast_Searcher wrote:IF we do have a new "oil shock" (which is entirely possible, IMO), that implies substantially higher oil prices. Instead of "crashing the economy" as the fast crash doomers claim. This will make the incentive to frack oil GLOBALLY much much stronger.


In other words, drill baby drill 2.0? Back in 2008 there were no viable alternatives. That was back when the Tesla Roadster was the only thing out there. I think the impulse to cling to oil as our one and only way to get around will buckle and break if we have sustained oil prices. This is in addition to the continued wearing down of people's AGW denial as the climate continues to spiral out of control.

That's not to say we won't be able to drill baby drill. And it will happen during the transition regardless. But I think that will be the straw that breaks the camel's backs of the buying public. They're stupid but they're not THAT stupid.

Daniel Doom wrote: And we just don't have enough cobalt and nickel for EV's to ramp up dramatically. If there are new cobalt and nickel resources out there, it will take many years to find and develop them--"if."


We're using nickel and cobalt in batteries because they offer the highest energy density but they aren't the only chemistry that's viable. The cobalt also has the unavoidable downside of thermal runaway problems (witness the various car fires Plant was highlighting a while back). As cost per kwh goes down you can get away with using lower energy densities and bigger packs, like Lithium iron phosphate or lithium manganese (used in the Volt). Same deal with rare earths. Permanent magnet motors are being used because they offer some advantages over AC induction and automakers are trying to squeeze out maximum performance/efficiency, but they aren't a necessity. Tesla used AC induction exclusively until recently.

A little quick googling shows that the industry is already looking to minimize and phase out the use of cobalt in particular:

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/06/09/co ... nic-tesla/

So really the only element worthy of fretting over is lithium, and there's more than enough of that out there, plus there are recycling programs now for spent battery packs.

THEN you have to factor in a future where individual ownership declines in favor of carsharing (aka transport-as-a-service: a key component of Tony Seba's presentation). You don't have to replace every car 1:1. You just have to make sure everyone continues to be able to get from point A to B, which seems likely. And even if ALL THAT fails, why are people commuting so much in the first place when they just proceed to sit at a computer and bang away at a keyboard all day? Telecommuting alone could make oil prices crash if it were instituted for all jobs that could be done remotely. Only a change to corporate culture is required. Maybe tourism would suffer but most people don't need to go that far just to run their daily errands. Oh, concerned about trucks considering how much retail is ceding to ecommerce? Well, that's why the Tesla Semi is a thing, or Amazon with their huge Rivian deal. Are there still many applications that aren't amenable to electrification? Yes, but they just burn all the oil saved by electrifying elsewhere and BAU just keeps rolling along.

This is why I said he was engaging in boilerplate FUD.

Now are you going to continue to dig in your heels or moderate your doomerism?
Last edited by asg70 on Fri 29 Nov 2019, 14:52:53, edited 1 time in total.

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-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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