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Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sun 28 Jun 2020, 01:09:35

Ibon wrote:This is why I have also said that the most efficient way to cut carbon emissions is to return to the historical norm of civilization prior to the oil age when a small tiny elite rule over economically impoverished serfs.

But for that to be possible mobs must believe in something like all seeing crucified Jew or may be in prophet of the desert or in Kim, the God or at least in saint crocodiles and their masters/enablers from the Underworld.

Failing that mobs will swipe your ruling elites into abyss in no time at all.

I am finding these prospects quite interesting - we are approaching a situation where the highest level of government might be a person of warlord... and these are easily disposable people of short life expectancy.
So for the time of overshoot correction we are likely to embrace chaos.

Take my word for that - in coming decades chaos will reign.
Globally.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby REAL Green » Sun 28 Jun 2020, 06:18:01

Ibon wrote:This is why I have also said that the most efficient way to cut carbon emissions is to return to the historical norm of civilization prior to the oil age when a small tiny elite rule over economically impoverished serfs.

Obviously, we need to go further back than the last 13,000 years to pre-agriculture with bands of semi-nomadic hunter gathers mixed with marginal agriculture to get emissions right. That return to the original human arrangement may be the result of a hard crash or worse. Too early to tell.

In the meantime, I would say a tiny elite ruling over good citizens should be considered too. For some reason whenever we talk about decline and collapse the results of the conversation are always dark and painful. I do agree in locations this Elite ruling over impoverished masses is likely because of the harsh realities of a destroyed planet in human overshoot. Yet there may be places where enlightened communities have a go at it with strength in their diverse community in sweet spots locations. Communities with less inequality and more solidarity able to do more than the harsh divide of feudalism.

It is likely everyone will be poorer in the gradient of decline. Women will return to their traditional place in the family. Men will be working with their hands more, more animals labor and more child labor. There will be more deaths so likely more births to offset this. Communities and families in this situation will need lots of human labor. This seems to be the future of decline. How quickly we get there depends on managed degrowth or not.

EnergyUnlimited wrote:But for that to be possible mobs must believe in something.


It is equally true the elite need to believe in something. A higher power of meaning is required for all human with a large frontal cortex. The individual and his ego is problematic because of the neurosis of the ego when isolated in itself. What will the high meaning be in the future? If a decline process gets in full swing intelligence will decline because education will decline. Storage of knowledge will decline and the production of new knowledge lowered. The hunter gatherers had superstitions and basic knowledge that tied their life to nature and created a stable system of sorts for small groups. I propose man needs is higher power to be more organic in planetary respect and less wrapped up in the worship of human intellect and self. Isn't this what has happened to man as he has become more intelligent. He has become more obsessed with himself as the center of the universe and less of the universe and the planet itself. The planet is our connection to the universe so I propose a new meaning has to be planetary based.

EnergyUnlimited wrote:Failing that mobs will swipe your ruling elites into abyss in no time at all. .


Where this happens on a degraded planet the results will mean these areas will be open to being outcompeted. Those areas that have less of this more potent with stability. Maybe it will be this understanding between the elites and the mob that in some areas manages to have a better result. In other words cooperation will trump harsh control and or mob rule.

EnergyUnlimited wrote:So for the time of overshoot correction we are likely to embrace chaos…Take my word for that - in coming decades chaos will reign.Globally.


I have been reading about Chaos lately. There seems to be pattern in randomness so the fact that there will be abandonment, dysfunction, and irrational may find some pattern instincts coalesce. I find this very interesting in regards to chaos and change facing man today. Below are notes from a variety of sources I collected that point to deeper patterns and systematic structures of change in the destructive states of chaos. This points to patterns forming in the randomness of the scary chaos of destructive change:

“The Tracy-Widom distribution is an asymmetrical statistical bump, steeper on the left side than the right. Suitably scaled, its summit sits at a telltale value: √2N, the square root of twice the number of variables in the systems that give rise to it and the exact transition point between stability and instability that May calculated for his model ecosystem…Similarly, the physicists realized, the energy curves of certain strongly correlated systems have a kink at √2N. The associated peak for these systems is the Tracy-Widom distribution, which appears in the third derivative of the energy curve — that is, the rate of change of the rate of change of the energy’s rate of change. This makes the Tracy-Widom distribution a “third-order” phase transition…“This phase transition is universal in the sense that it does not depend too much on the microscopic details of your system.”
In ecology, the theory of alternative stable states (sometimes termed alternate stable states or alternative stable equilibria) predicts that ecosystems can exist under multiple "states" (sets of unique biotic and abiotic conditions). These alternative states are non-transitory and therefore considered stable over ecologically-relevant timescales. Ecosystems may transition from one stable state to another, in what is known as a state shift (sometimes termed a phase shift or regime shift), when perturbed. Due to ecological feedbacks, ecosystems display resistance to state shifts and therefore tend to remain in one state unless perturbations are large enough. Multiple states may persist under equal environmental conditions, a phenomenon known as hysteresis. Alternative stable state theory suggests that discrete states are separated by ecological thresholds, in contrast to ecosystems which change smoothly and continuously along an environmental gradient.
Hysteresis can be a dynamic lag between an input and an output that disappears if the input is varied more slowly; this is known as rate-dependent hysteresis. However, phenomena such as the magnetic hysteresis loops are mainly rate-independent, which makes a durable memory possible.”
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 28 Jun 2020, 15:39:41

"...elite ruling over good citizens..."

Why would 'good citizens' have any need of a ruling elite?

After all, there's no government like no government! :o

(On the other hand, anarchy may be hard to enforce! :lol: :lol: )

And my final message of the day (or at least till my nap time is over :-D ) is to encourage everyone to enjoy themselves, because we do not know what tomorrow may bring. Or in the words of Dr. Emilio Lizardo:

https://memes.getyarn.io/yarn-clip/a314 ... 7475103b6a

Or, if you prefer Ska style, The Specials:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F3MeYJnn5ug
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby REAL Green » Sun 28 Jun 2020, 15:56:11

dohboi wrote:"...elite ruling over good citizens..." Why would 'good citizens' have any need of a ruling elite? After all, there's no government like no government! :o


Yea, personally I would like to be a part of a semi-nomadic hunter gathers group as their shaman. I guess what I mean is an elite as in the best of the best as the leader chosen by the good citizens. Maybe an Athens as an example.

dohboi wrote: (On the other hand, anarchy may be hard to enforce! :lol: :lol: )


LOL, yea imagine anarchist enforcing anarchy! Seems like it should be natural, that is until the hangover starts and the task of feeding and sheltering gets important.

dohboi wrote:And my final message of the day (or at least till my nap time is over :-D ) is to encourage everyone to enjoy themselves, because we do not know what tomorrow may bring.


Sound wisdom, dohboi!
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sun 28 Jun 2020, 16:33:17

@REAL Green,
Your last post is very good.
When I have a bit of time tomorrow I will comment on some issues you have raised.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 28 Jun 2020, 20:35:42

Thanks to aslr at asif for text and links:

This is a reminder that the linked reference concludes that if GHG concentration approach Eocene levels, ECS will accelerate rapidly as indicated by the following extract:

"Our simulations exhibit increasing equilibrium climate sensitivity with warming and suggest an Eocene sensitivity of more than 6.6°C, much greater than the present-day value (4.2°C)."

Jiang Zhu, Christopher J. Poulsen, Jessica E. Tierney.

Simulation of Eocene extreme warmth and high climate sensitivity through cloud feedbacks.

Science Advances, 2019; 5 (9): eaax1874 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aax1874

https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/9/eaax1874

Abstract
The Early Eocene, a period of elevated atmospheric CO2 (>1000 ppmv), is considered an analog for future climate. Previous modeling attempts have been unable to reproduce major features of Eocene climate indicated by proxy data without substantial modification to the model physics. Here, we present simulations using a state-of-the-art climate model forced by proxy-estimated CO2 levels that capture the extreme surface warmth and reduced latitudinal temperature gradient of the Early Eocene and the warming of the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. Our simulations exhibit increasing equilibrium climate sensitivity with warming and suggest an Eocene sensitivity of more than 6.6°C, much greater than the present-day value (4.2°C). This higher climate sensitivity is mainly attributable to the shortwave cloud feedback, which is linked primarily to cloud microphysical processes. Our findings highlight the role of small-scale cloud processes in determining large-scale climate changes and suggest a potential increase in climate sensitivity with future warming.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 28 Jun 2020, 20:55:32

dohboi wrote:
"Our simulations exhibit increasing equilibrium climate sensitivity with warming and suggest an Eocene sensitivity of more than 6.6°C, much greater than the present-day value (4.2°C)."

Jiang Zhu, Christopher J. Poulsen, Jessica E. Tierney.

Simulation of Eocene extreme warmth and high climate sensitivity through cloud feedbacks.

Science Advances, 2019; 5 (9): eaax1874 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aax1874

https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/9/eaax1874



Actually, we don't precisely know the current day value of climate sensitivity.

The real scary thing about this kind of paleo science is that it suggests the earth has a climate density of ca. 6.6*C, about 50% HIGHER than the current assumption for earth's climate sensitivity.

If the earth's climate sensitivity is 50% HIGHER then current models assume, then ongoing global warming is going to happen more quickly and be more severe then current models assume.

AND there is evidence that supports that....look at the extreme high temperatures we are currently seeing over Siberia----the amazing amount of warming we are seeing RIGHT NOW in Siberia and other high latitude areas is way greater then the models predict. This may be a sign that the climate models are wrong and are greatly UNDERESTIMATING THE amount of global warming we are going to see very very soon.

siberian-heat-wave-is-a-warning-cry-from-the-arctic-climate-scientists-say

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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 28 Jun 2020, 21:28:20

Good points there, P.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby jedrider » Sun 28 Jun 2020, 21:53:11

Warning Sign of Major Proportions': Number of Siberian Forest Fires Increase Fivefold in Week Since Record High Temperature
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/06/27/warning-sign-major-proportions-number-siberian-forest-fires-increase-fivefold-week

The article says that winds are also kicking ass up there. Here in California, the wind too is a factor as well as the higher temperatures. That whole polar region weather system is gyrating out of control (I watch Beckwith a bit, though not lately, but I just thought of that expression, whether an accurate description or not, I don't know, but worrisome nevertheless).
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 29 Jun 2020, 12:21:33

Yes, it's bad up there, and the short and long term forecasts for the Arctic have a lot of people in the Arctic Sea Ice Forum freaking out a bit.

I wonder if the wind will end up blowing a bunch of that ash from the fires up onto the sea ice, further exacerbating melt because of albedo shift.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby JuanP » Mon 29 Jun 2020, 12:24:52

"The Arctic is burning: As temperatures reach 100F, over a million hectares of Siberian forest is on fire"
https://www.rt.com/russia/493252-arctic ... rest-fire/
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