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Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby clif » Fri 20 Mar 2020, 23:14:07

I wish we could know if this pandemic is the likely result of global warming,


If I had to guess it's not a direct result of global warming, but a by product of the mechanism of the ever increasing CO2 we pollute our environment with. Open International travel for most of the planets inhabitants. Planes trains and automobiles.....which cover the planet from a transportation perspective.

In the last 2 decades the planet because one BIG play ground for an ever larger number of people, who can move around at will, and many many do. Some for business some for pleasure, or to gather families which are far flung in our modern world. The result is the pandemics have much stronger vectors to ride around the planet. This is a given how immersed most of the planet is, many people from different locations mingling and then going to another place to mingle with different people.

The last major pandemic the 1918 Spanish flu was helped in the same way by the US and western powers interchange, moving troops and supplies to and from the battle fields.

As opposed to an ancient times plagues had to travel from town to town, not jump on a plane and circle the planet in days and weeks. Going forward if we do not change how we travel and then each new virus or bacterial infection which has the ability to go pandemic most probably will. It's the modern travel all over the world that allows this .... SARS MERS and H1N1 to spread as far as they do,. Covid-19 is just at the proper infection to lethal ratio to spread to most of the planet with out destroying too many hosts to break the spread. and new enough genetically so we have no immunity nor the knowledge of which pharmaceuticals will stop it from doing what it currently is doing.

welcome to another dark side of modern life .....
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 21 Mar 2020, 04:26:58

AGW is one of a variety of ways that we are rapidly obliterating the non-human (and ultimately also of course the human) world. Destroying 'nature' has consequences, one being the increased likelihood of viral outbreaks:
...it is actually humanity’s destruction of biodiversity that creates the conditions for new viruses and diseases such as Covid-19, the viral disease that emerged in China in December 2019, to arise – with profound health and economic impacts in rich and poor countries alike. In fact, a new discipline, planetary health, is emerging that focuses on the increasingly visible connections between the wellbeing of humans, other living things and entire ecosystems.

...species in degraded habitats are likely to carry more viruses which can infect humans...

...“Major landscape changes are causing animals to lose habitats, which means species become crowded together and also come into greater contact with humans. Species that survive change are now moving and mixing with different animals and with humans.”...

When we erode biodiversity, we see a proliferation of the species most likely to transmit new diseases to us, but there’s also good evidence that those same species are the best hosts for existing diseases...



'Tip of the iceberg': is our destruction of nature responsible for Covid-19?


As habitat and biodiversity loss increase globally, the coronavirus outbreak may be just the beginning of mass pandemics


Remember also that the thawing tundra is releasing viruses and bacteria at an astonishing rate, germs many of which have not been freely circulating on the planet in many millennia, with unknown effects on humans and others
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 05 Apr 2020, 13:57:06

The UN's WMO (World Meteorological Organization) "Statement on the State of the Global Climate in 2019", confirms that climate change is currently accelerating and that mankind is nowhere near to being on track to stall within the 'well below' 2C target.

Flagship UN study shows accelerating climate change on land, sea and in the atmosphere


https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/03/1059061

Writing in the foreword to the report, UN chief António Guterres warned that the world is currently “way off track meeting either the 1.5°C or 2°C targets that the Paris Agreement calls for”, referring to the commitment made by the international community in 2015, to keep global average temperatures well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels.


See also:

WMO Statement on the State of the Global Climate in 2019


https://reliefweb.int/report/world/wmo- ... 019-enarru
"Multi-agency report highlights increasing signs and impacts of climate change in atmosphere, land and oceans"

(Thanks to aslr at asif for text and links)
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 05 Apr 2020, 15:20:00

Given that most of the world didn't have the foresight to prepare for a pandemic, it is more understandable to me now that the world doesn't have the foresight to take steps to mitigate global warming.

Most humans have very short term viewpoints......the willingness to plan for catastrophic events that happen rarely or will happen decades in the future just isn't part of human nature.

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A few people have the foresight to see these dangers coming, but most people won't believe them or won't care.

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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby yellowcanoe » Sun 05 Apr 2020, 15:30:59

Plantagenet wrote:Given that most of the world didn't have the foresight to prepare for a pandemic, it is more understandable to me now that the world doesn't have the foresight to take steps to mitigate global warming.


Properly preparing for a pandemic would have been far easier and cheaper then trying to mitigate global warming. A pandemic would also end without any effort on our part, albeit with a greater loss of life than we would like while climate change will only get worse the longer we delay doing anything about it.

I have to laugh at Facebook postings that suggests our willingness to sacrifice to fight Corvid-19 means we would be willing to sacrifice to fight climate change. Considering the financial hit our society is taking and the likelihood that we are entering a serious recession or possibly even a depression I think it will be extremely difficult to make any real progress on climate change.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 05 Apr 2020, 16:21:05

yellowcanoe wrote:I have to laugh at Facebook postings that suggests our willingness to sacrifice to fight Corvid-19 means we would be willing to sacrifice to fight climate change. Considering the financial hit our society is taking and the likelihood that we are entering a serious recession or possibly even a depression I think it will be extremely difficult to make any real progress on climate change.


Yup. Thats exactly what I was saying.

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This seems to be another example of the famous proverb: GREAT MINDS THINK ALIKE.

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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 05 Apr 2020, 17:53:27

A depression IS progress on climate change, just not a voluntary one.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 05 Apr 2020, 18:03:50

Plantagenet wrote:
yellowcanoe wrote:I have to laugh at Facebook postings that suggests our willingness to sacrifice to fight Corvid-19 means we would be willing to sacrifice to fight climate change. Considering the financial hit our society is taking and the likelihood that we are entering a serious recession or possibly even a depression I think it will be extremely difficult to make any real progress on climate change.


Yup. Thats exactly what I was saying.

Image
This seems to be another example of the famous proverb: GREAT MINDS THINK ALIKE.

Cheers!


May I join the crowd, from a respectful distance of course? LOL

The thing that really put a fork in it for me was reading Kahanaman’s Thinking: Fast and Slow. He is so methodical about his approach to how the human brain works and he is so down in the details that his logic is just over powering. He didn’t talk about climate change per se but about our predictive ability, which is near zero. He says you can not substantially change any human and that he himself is subject to the pratfalls he demonstrates. The solution, partial at best, lies in institutional process for analytic thinking. Essentially we program a “computer” or some kind of methodical system, then let it do its work and follow its advice. That the guys who write the procedure, that program the computer, even if the program is perfect, when the humans try to do it they screw it up. We can figure out what to do but our biases stop us from doing it.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 22 Apr 2020, 12:36:18

Stolen from elsewhere.

Warmest Oceans on Record Adds to Hurricanes, Wildfires Risks

Reference Article from GCaptain:

http://https://gcaptain.com/warmest-...eid=5626ef2c30

The world’s seas are simmering, with record high temperatures spurring worry among forecasters that the global warming effect may generate a chaotic year of extreme weather ahead.

Parts of the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans all hit the record books for warmth last month, according to the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Information. The high temperatures could offer clues on the ferocity of the Atlantic hurricane season, the eruption of wildfires from the Amazon region to Australia, and whether the record heat and severe thunderstorms raking the southern U.S. will continue.

In the Gulf of Mexico, where offshore drilling accounts for about 17% of U.S. oil output, water temperatures were 76.3 degrees Fahrenheit (24.6 Celsius), 1.7 degrees above the long-term average, said Phil Klotzbach at Colorado State University. If Gulf waters stay warm, it could be the fuel that intensifies any storm that comes that way, Klotzbach said.



“The entire tropical ocean is above average,” said Michelle L’Heureux, a forecaster at the U.S. Climate Prediction Center. “And there is a global warming component to that. It is really amazing when you look at all the tropical oceans and see how warm they are.”

The record warm water in the Gulf of Mexico spilled over into every coastal community along the shoreline with all-time high temperatures on land, said Deke Arndt, chief of the monitoring section at the National Centers for Environmental Information in Asheville, North Carolina. Florida recorded its warmest March on record, and Miami reached 93 degrees Wednesday, a record for the date and 10 degrees above normal, according to the National Weather Service.

While coronavirus has the nation’s attenton right now, global warming continues to be a threat. Sea water “remembers and holds onto heat” better than the atmosphere, Arndt said.

Overall, the five warmest years in the world’s seas, as measured by modern instruments, have occurred over just the last half-dozen or so years. It’s “definitely climate-change related,” said Jennifer Francis, a senior scientist at the Woods Hole Research Center in Massachusetts. “Oceans are absorbing about 90% of the heat trapped by extra greenhouse gases.”

Worldwide, sea temperatures were 1.49 degrees Fahrenheit above average in March. That’s the second highest level recorded since 1880 for the month of March, according to U.S. data. In 2016, temperatures were 1.55 degrees above average.

The first of Colorado State’s 2020 storm reports, led by Klotzbach, forecast this year that eight hurricanes could spin out of the Atlantic with an above-average chance at least one will make landfall in the U.S. during the six-month season starting June 1. The U.S. is set to issue its hurricane forecast next month.

Arctic Systems
The searing global temperatures this year can also be traced back to intense climate systems around the Arctic that bottled up much of that region’s cold, preventing it from spilling south into temperate regions. Combined with global warming, this was a one-two punch for sea temperatures that’s brought them to historic highs.

One of the best-known examples of how oceans drive global weather patterns is the development of the climate system known as El Nino. It occurs when unusually warm waters in the equatorial Pacific interact with the atmosphere to alter weather patterns worldwide. In the Atlantic, for instance, El Ninos can cause severe wind shear that can break up developing storms with the potential to become dangerous hurricanes.

This year, the chance of an El Nino developing is small, and scientists are theorizing one reason could be that climate change is warming all the world’s oceans. El Nino “depends on contrasts, as well as absolute values of sea-surface temperatures,” according to Kevin Trenberth, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

Strengthening Their Fury

Meanwhile, if the Atlantic stays warm through the six-month storm season that starts June 1, the tropical systems can use it as fuel to strengthen their fury. In 2017, a small storm called Harvey actually fell apart as it crossed Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula into the Gulf, but once it got there it reformed and grew into a Category 4 monster that went on to flood Texas, killing at least 68 people, and caused about $125 billion in damage.

If the Gulf stays record warm “then it raises the risk of another Harvey type storm perhaps,” Trenberth said.

The oceans also play a role in setting the stage for wildfires. In the case of Australia and the Amazon, really warm areas of the ocean can pull rain away from the land, causing drier conditions and, in extreme cases, drought. Last year, for instance, the Indian Ocean was really warm off Africa, so that is where all the storms went. Australia was left high and dry.

Back in the Atlantic, research by Katia Fernandes, a geosciences professor at the University of Arkansas, has also shown a correlation between sea surface temperatures in the northern tropical Atlantic and drought and wildfires in the Amazon. The warmer the water, the further north rainfall is pulled across South America.

According to the Fernandes model, even Atlantic temperatures in March can serve to predict if the Amazon will be dry and susceptible to fires.

For California, the outlook isn’t as clear. Wildfires there depend as much on how well vegetation grows, providing fuel for the flames, as it does on the weather conditions coming off the Pacific.

“Tricky question,” said Mike Anderson, California state climatologist. “Our weather outcomes are influenced by sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific, but it depends on where and when the warm waters appear and how long they persist. In the end we have a highly variable climate that doesn’t map in a statistically convenient way to patterns of sea-surface temperatures.”
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 22 Apr 2020, 18:22:54

2019: Europe’s warmest year on record.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-52380157
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby REAL Green » Thu 23 Apr 2020, 07:18:12

Here in the central part of the country we are not seeing the warmth of this climate destabilization as much. Occasionally a warm up happens that is unnatural but overall, there has been more moisture and that means cooler. This has been a period of mostly wet and cool for a couple of years now. From what I am reading is the continental regions will eventually experience more heat and drought but only after more moisture. This reinforces those who think global warming is a joke. Instead of understanding the Arctic and things like the El Niño are adapting to intrusions of warmth causing bulges to meander in the atmosphere. Strong contrast helped keep temperate zones more stable but now we are seeing instability instead with moisture and temperature becuase of generalized warming. I am sure droughts are coming. I am waiting for them apprehensively.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 23 Apr 2020, 07:32:59

Deep GREEN,
I think that is about right.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 27 Apr 2020, 19:56:56

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... ords-began

Meteorologists say 2020 on course to be hottest year since records began
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby dissident » Mon 27 Apr 2020, 20:10:09

dohboi wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/27/meteorologists-say-2020-on-course-to-be-hottest-year-since-records-began

Meteorologists say 2020 on course to be hottest year since records began


So the cleaner air from reduced pollution emissions has amplified the warming. And pollution globally acts, even at lower concentrations, like it did during the 1950s, 60s and 70s as global dimming.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby jedrider » Tue 28 Apr 2020, 00:57:31

REAL Green wrote:Here in the central part of the country we are not seeing the warmth of this climate destabilization as much. Occasionally a warm up happens that is unnatural but overall, there has been more moisture and that means cooler. This has been a period of mostly wet and cool for a couple of years now. From what I am reading is the continental regions will eventually experience more heat and drought but only after more moisture. This reinforces those who think global warming is a joke. Instead of understanding the Arctic and things like the El Niño are adapting to intrusions of warmth causing bulges to meander in the atmosphere. Strong contrast helped keep temperate zones more stable but now we are seeing instability instead with moisture and temperature becuase of generalized warming. I am sure droughts are coming. I am waiting for them apprehensively.


I think Europe is getting the opposite, more continual heat waves than the continental US. The entire Arctic weather system seems to have shifted our way which is ameliorating the climate impact for us, unless you live in Florida, I guess. Paul Beckwith must have something to say about this.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 04 May 2020, 16:55:50

The Corona virus is conducting a global warming science experiment for us.

coronavirus-may-answer-major-climate-change-questions By stopping flying and most other activity we have greatly reduced the amount of aerosols in the air.

But scientists don't quite know if aerosols cause cooling or warming.....If aerosols cause global dimming by blocking the sun then the world should quickly heat up by 0.5° C or so putting us on track for a big jump in global warming.

So far up here in Alaska it looks like we are on track for record warming temps this summer. We should be hitting the 70s in a few days.

Good thing I already had a set of N99 masks to use when we have big forest fires. I could just pull them out and use them for the Corona Virus. If record warmth continues we'll be seeing some big forest fires pretty quick again, and I'll have to wear two N99 masks at once...one for the virus and one for the smoke.

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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 06 May 2020, 16:54:13

I think that overstates the uncertainty a bit.

The net effect of aerosols is almost certainly cooling, but how much is hard to tell. And as I recall, different kinds of aerosols have different effects.

.5 C seems like a fair estimate, but it could be much more or a bit less.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 07 May 2020, 09:11:36

dohboi wrote:I think that overstates the uncertainty a bit.

The net effect of aerosols is almost certainly cooling, but how much is hard to tell. And as I recall, different kinds of aerosols have different effects.

.5 C seems like a fair estimate, but it could be much more or a bit less.


Based on what I remember from the contrail studies after 9-11 aerosols to a large extent have a levelizing effect. At midnight they causes temperatures to stay warmer, but at noon they reflect away some of the sunlight causing daily highs to be suppressed.

Net effect is what we are still debating 19 years later.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby dissident » Thu 07 May 2020, 21:57:11

People always get triggered by their local weather conditions. Even if there is a global warming, there can and will be regional cooling. Shifts in the storm tracks associated with changes in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (NAO-like) are enough to produce cooling depending on whether the storm tracks migrate eastward and southward.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby jedrider » Tue 12 May 2020, 23:22:01

A good brief summary by Beckwith as he reviews a recent paper summarizing the various climate tipping points, or just call it 'smushing':

Stratocumulus Cloud Deck Collapse and other Tipping Elements in the Climate System that Can Smush Us
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dawRAMgBgwM
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