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Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby jedrider » Sun 24 Nov 2019, 15:44:50

rockdoc123 wrote: Your understanding of the science would not make it possible to understand what is a forest or what is a tree (or for that matter a tree ring) so your question is somewhat meaningless.


LOL. I like that, 'tree ring'. I rest my case now.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby diemos » Sun 24 Nov 2019, 15:52:45

rockdoc123 wrote:If it was a simple as you seem to think there wouldn't be any research being conducted would there?


Oh, understanding the dynamics of how and how fast the changes are going to happen is incredibly complicated.

That things are going to change isn't complicated at all. It's as simple as what I wrote.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Sun 24 Nov 2019, 17:15:39

rockdoc123 wrote: the spikes in heat or cold that are observed in various places around the world. Many have been trying to explain this through CO2 increases and the fallon alterations to weather patterns.

Nobody has been saying this with respect to 1951–2017, which the paper studies. Some have said that there are more hot spells because it's getting warmer.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby ralfy » Sun 24 Nov 2019, 18:40:55

The U.S. <> the world.

Also, part of the effects of global warming is record cold.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 24 Nov 2019, 20:05:58

Nobody has been saying this with respect to 1951–2017, which the paper studies. Some have said that there are more hot spells because it's getting warmer.


Your logic is flawed. Your argument would be it is warming because of the addition of CO2 into the atmosphere (ie. AGW)...hence what I said..
Many have been trying to explain this through CO2 increases and the fall on alterations to weather patterns.

is accurate. Do I really need to pull out a few references where there is an attempt to link heat waves to global warming?

The U.S. <> the world.


And someone living in Northern Montana cares about the climate in SE Australia why? I ask this because climate is a regional issue, it is only global when you force a bunch of regional patterns together to try and get a pattern. There is no global thermometer, no global anemometer, no global barometer.

Also, part of the effects of global warming is record cold.


Yes, everything is a product of global warming, the press would have you believe that and it helps raise research funds for pretty much everything.... :roll:
You must be missing the critical thinking gene. I guess you can't disprove your theory because if its warming it is global warming and if it is cooling it is global warming. Jesus wept.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 24 Nov 2019, 22:35:29

....someone living in Northern Montana cares about the climate in SE Australia why?


The title of this thread is Global Warming / Climate Changes. The presumption is that reasonably intelligent people, no matter where they live, have concerns about global warming.

There is no global thermometer, no global anemometer, no global barometer.


Of course not. Its silly for you even to suggest such a thing.

.... if its warming it is global warming .....


There is no “if” about it. There are tens of thousands of weather stations around the planet and measured temperatures in most places are significantly higher now then they were just a century or two in the past. When all the data for the entire planet is considered together, it shows that the planet has warmed by about 1° C over the 20th century average.

But the industrial revolution started in the 18th century and really got going in the 19th century and CO2 started to accumulate in the atmosphere back then, and the total amount of warming caused by CO2 forcing is probably ca. 1.5° C or perhaps a little greater.

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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Sun 24 Nov 2019, 23:23:17

rockdoc123 wrote:Do I really need to pull out a few references where there is an attempt to link heat waves to global warming?

Obviously there will be more heat waves if there is a warming trend (whether anthro or not). The paper shows that the fluctuations about the rising trend correlate with AMO. If their result somehow disproved the other theories you mentioned, shouldn't they have said so explicitly? Maybe you should write a paper pointing it out.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 25 Nov 2019, 13:42:19

 The paper shows that the fluctuations about the rising trend correlate with AMO. If their result somehow disproved the other theories you mentioned, shouldn't they have said so explicitly? Maybe you should write a paper pointing it out.


I don’t think you read the paper but have at speculating as much as you want. The did not address a rising trend, did not document it, didn’t care. What they were focusing on was what causes Extreme Heating events such as the Russian heatwave of 2010. Their results indicated the largest component of control on these extreme heating events was from the natural fluctuation in the AMO. Like most scientists of any merit, they restricted themselves to their own research results although they mentioned that previous work by Sun (2014) had attributed these events to global warming. I'm sure at some point there will be a review paper published somewhere looking at all of the research in this area considering the paper was just published recently. Theoretically, that should be addressed by the working group in attribution in AR6 or whatever they are going to call it.

As to your suggestion nobody was claiming heat waves were related to AGW:

Shortly after the Russian heat wave the press was rampant with headlines such as:

Climate experts agree global warming caused Russian heat wave


Russian heat wave statistically linked to climate change


And as to extreme heat events being more common due to overall rising temperature the logic doesn’t follow. Extreme heat is measured against a background temperature of the time it isn’t measured against a background temperature of say 100 years ago. The research I pointed to is simply stating that those extreme rises in temperature are naturally occurring and cyclic, just as I remember from my youth when AGW wasn’t a problem.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Mon 25 Nov 2019, 15:21:13

rockdoc123 wrote:As to your suggestion nobody was claiming heat waves were related to AGW:

Shortly after the Russian heat wave the press was rampant with headlines such as:

Russian heat wave statistically linked to climate change


And as to extreme heat events being more common due to overall rising temperature the logic doesn’t follow. Extreme heat is measured against a background temperature of the time it isn’t measured against a background temperature of say 100 years ago. The research I pointed to is simply stating that those extreme rises in temperature are naturally occurring and cyclic, just as I remember from my youth when AGW wasn’t a problem.

That would be this Wired article
https://www.wired.com/2011/10/russian-h ... te-change/
which says:
After that, the researchers ran a simulation that didn't include the warming trend, then compared the results.

"For every five new records observed in the last few years, one would happen without climate change. An additional four happen with climate change," said Rahmstorf. "There's an 80 percent probability" that climate change produced the Russian heat wave.


So if you subtract the warming trend (as Gao, et. al. do) you see mainly the internal fluctuations but if you include it, the trend dominates. No contradiction with Gao.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 25 Nov 2019, 15:46:42

So if you subtract the warming trend (as Gao, et. al. do) you see mainly the internal fluctuations but if you include it, the trend dominates. No contradiction with Gao.

I don't think so. Gao et al is saying that natural variation is mainly responsible for extreme heat events like the Russian heat wave, not AGW. And you even state from the article:
There's an 80 percent probability" that climate change produced the Russian heat wave.
. The two are completely juxtaposed not at all consistent. One is saying the extreme heat event was mainly controlled by natural variation the other is saying it is related to climate change (used interchangeably with AGW).

regardless of you trying to obfuscate around the issue the reason I posted these articles (and there are many many more) is because it was claimed here that there were no peer-reviewed publications that disagreed with CO2 (ie. AGW) as the main driver of climate to which I called BS. This paper specifically points to a control on climate by the AMO that is more significant than CO2. Trying to change the argument doesn't alter that.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby jedrider » Mon 25 Nov 2019, 18:19:48

rockdoc123 wrote:The two are completely juxtaposed not at all consistent.


Why can you not see the trends for the variations?
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby diemos » Mon 25 Nov 2019, 18:49:44

rockdoc123 wrote:This paper specifically points to a control on climate by the AMO that is more significant than CO2. Trying to change the argument doesn't alter that.


When there is clear weather flooding in Miami Beach it is mainly caused by the gravitational pull of the moon and sun. There is more of it now than there used to be because sea level has changed.

In the same way an individual weather event is correlated to the AMO but it has been made worse by the increased temperatures due to increased co2.

The only inconsistency is in your understanding of the papers.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 25 Nov 2019, 19:53:22

in the same way an individual weather event is correlated to the AMO but it has been made worse by the increased temperatures due to increased co2.

The only inconsistency is in your understanding of the papers.


wrongo chum. The AMO describes decadal variations and it is those decadal variations that are correlated with the extreme heat events (precisely why would you assume what the reasearch has said when you clearly haven't read the paper?). And the evidence that they are worse is just not there, feel free to show us the statistics you think show that. That claim has been made by many with zero data to bakc it up. The paper doesn't point to anything being worse either, this is simply a red herring you introduce for some reason. The variation between extreme heat and base heat is not shown to be increasing in the paper. Whether you want to believe it or not places around the world experienced extreme heat events back over the years like the 1901 heat wave that killed over a thousand people in the US or the 1923 heat wave in Australia that lasted for half a year and recorded several record high temperatures or the numerous massive heat waves that hit the US during the thirties. As a point of fact, those heat waves in the thirties in the US were not only more frequent but generally hotter than since then. If you can show data to contradict that viewpoint have at it.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby Revi » Tue 26 Nov 2019, 10:55:38

There are definitely more hot summer days. Here's an article about it. I have noticed that even on the coast of Maine we have warm days more frequently. I've given up on growing a garden in August because it's so sunny and warm, and doesn't rain enough.
https://www.climatecentral.org/gallery/ ... ing-hotter

Image
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 26 Nov 2019, 14:29:59

There are definitely more hot summer days. 

Not compared to the thirties according to NOAA data. Here are a couple of plots that demonstrate this although they don’t include summer 2019. I can’t update them at the moment as the NOAA site is down for maintenance apparently.

Image

Image
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Tue 26 Nov 2019, 16:40:04

rockdoc123 wrote:Not compared to the thirties according to NOAA data.

Tamino explains this:
https://tamino.wordpress.com/2018/08/08 ... ucker-you/
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 26 Nov 2019, 17:01:01

well besides Grant being completely full of BS, look at the plot. Has nothing to do with his rant....no averaging, no cutting off the ends. It is data directly from NOAA unadulterated. The comment made here was it is definitely getting hotter and the point is compared to the thirties it is not. The high temperatures were higher and more prolonged in the thirties as the data demonstrates and the number of days above 100F were also greater. That is data and not interpretation.
And as usual Grant tries to change the story. The argument someone was trying to make here that it is generally getting hotter....what is the best data to look at then? Nightime? no. Average over the day? no. The best is maximum temperature of the day and that data say no it isn't getting hotter compared to the thirties. How do you measure a hot day? Do you say well it was really hot this afternoon but it was cool las night so I guess on average it wasn't that hot?
If you have data that contradicts this then please post but pointing to Tamino's post that is unrelated to what is plotted here or the argument is a red herring. But nice try.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby jedrider » Tue 26 Nov 2019, 23:07:17

The top point is nearly 20%. To have 20% of days above 100F is 76 days or about 3 months (assuming it is not actually always consecutive days). Must have been Phoenix or Las Vegas. I would like to see some actual weather reports of so many nearly consecutive hot weather days. Still doesn't demonstrate a cooling trend because we all know that it has NOT been cooling since then.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 26 Nov 2019, 23:31:21

The UN just announced the world must now cut its CO2 production by 7.5% per year or face a bleak future due to climate catastrophe.

un-climate-report-future-bleak

I wonder why they are just figuring this out now? Wouldn't it have been smarter for the UN to work towards CO2 reductions back in 2015 when they pushed out the phony Paris Accords, or back in 2009 when Obama derailed the climate accord treaty that was set to be signed at the Copenhagen COP meeting? Or maybe back in the 1990s when Clinton and Al Gore pushed the phony Kyoto Accords through---another agreement that actually allowed INCREASES in CO2 emissions.

Why in heavens sake did they punt on reducing CO2 emissions for so long? The UN and our leaders have wasted decades by pushing out phony UN climate deals that actually allowed INCREASING CO2 emissions.

Its really not likely the world will reduce its CO2 emissions by 7.5% per year now, especially when the world's leaders just signed a treaty in Paris that allowed them to INCREASE their CO2 emissions.

So we face a bleak future according to the UN. Well, IMHO the friggin UN itself deserves a big dollop of the blame for doing nothing for 30 years.

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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby EdwinSm » Wed 27 Nov 2019, 05:18:42

Plantagenet wrote:The UN just announced the world must now cut its CO2 production by 7.5% per year or face a bleak future due to climate catastrophe.

I wonder why they are just figuring this out now?


Our local tv news had that as an item. What you have missed out was where the UN spokesperson said that if the world had acted 10 years ago then the reduction would have only had to be about 3.3% (my memory might have it a few decimal points out).

So we have pissed away ten years and now are facing a challenge which is more than twice as big as it should have been.

I wonder what the % will be ten years from now. Sadly I guess that it would be above the 7.5% that is currently being quoted.
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