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Downfall of oil consuming infrastructure

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Downfall of oil consuming infrastructure

Unread postby Baduila » Mon 18 Nov 2019, 15:47:57

Worldwide car sales are falling. India is a good example.

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For India, the oil price of >100 $/barrel before July 2014 has been too high, the car sales dropped. Low prices from 2014 to spring of 2018 allowed the growth of the car industry. Beginning 2018, 70$ Brent and more caused a severe crisis for indias car industry.

As usual, poor people are hit harder by a crisis than the rich ones.
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Re: Downfall of oil consuming infrastructure

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 18 Nov 2019, 16:33:15

This needs to happen to deal with climate change.
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Re: Downfall of oil consuming infrastructure

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 18 Nov 2019, 16:56:05

For India, the oil price of >100 $/barrel before July 2014 has been too high, the car sales dropped. Low prices from 2014 to spring of 2018 allowed the growth of the car industry. Beginning 2018, 70$ Brent and more caused a severe crisis for indias car industry.


Oh please spare us the misuse of statistical averaging. India car sales in October bounced back to what is a three year average. The blue line which is averaged on 12months doesn't take that rise into account. And if one looks at historical India sales you see a somewhat different story:

Image

Sales rose quickly up until 2011 and then overall rose more gradually. There are lots of ups and downs associated with all sorts of things that are only marginally related to oil price. The actual peak of sales occurred right in the middle of a period where oil prices sat at $100 for 3 and a bit years.

The rapid fall in early 2019 is not related to oil price but rather economic and policy pressures on auto demand

https://www.dw.com/en/india-car-sales-plunging-whats-behind-it/a-50043348

Observers blame the auto slowdown on weakening economic growth and a liquidity crunch, brought about by a collapse of some non-banking financial companies that used to account for a significant share of automobile financing. 
Weak economic activity, coupled with escalating global trade tensions, led India's central bank to cut the country's growth projection for 2019-20 to 6.9% this month from its June forecast of 7%.
Automakers are also struggling to comply with a host of new environmental and safety policies, which have prompted a hike in vehicle prices. 

As part of its efforts to reduce air pollution, the Indian government plans to enforce its stringent Bharat Stage 6 (BS 6) fuel emission norms by 2020. They are regarded as the most advanced emission standards for automobiles and are equivalent to Euro 6 norms currently in place across countries in the European Union.
The transition to BS 6 could make vehicles more expensive for buyers, which in turn puts pressure on sales, say experts. The norms also entail an overhaul of diesel engine technology. They have already prompted Maruti Suzuki, India's biggest car company, to announce an end to the sales of their diesel cars from next year.
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New monthly data

Unread postby Baduila » Sat 07 Dec 2019, 03:19:50

The november data arrive, some headlines
Mexico auto production drops 13.0% in November
Colombian vehicle sales fall 8.8% in November
Brazilian vehicle production down 7.1%, exports down 7.9% in November
Russian car sales decrease 6.4% in November
UK passenger car sales decrease 1.3% in November


November Heavy Duty Truck Orders Resume Collapse, Down 39% To Weakest Since 2015

Only one market in one country is stable:
U.S. auto sales increase 1.9% in November
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Downfall of oil consuming infrastructure

Unread postby Baduila » Sat 04 Jan 2020, 16:39:01

The decay of oil consuming infrastructure accelerates:

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-fina ... l-december
Car sales in the US are falling, following China, India, Mexico, Argentina, and a lot of other countries.

Conditions deteriorate for trucks too:
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/use ... k-continue
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Re: Downfall of oil consuming infrastructure

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sat 04 Jan 2020, 19:37:51

Most markets are simply saturated, they can't sell more cars than people can use, it's as simple as that.
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Re: Downfall of oil consuming infrastructure

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sun 05 Jan 2020, 13:04:55

dolanbaker wrote:Most markets are simply saturated, they can't sell more cars than people can use, it's as simple as that.

So they will have to continue make cars crapper and crapper each year so they fall apart faster and there is more demand on new.
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Re: Downfall of oil consuming infrastructure

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 05 Jan 2020, 18:58:01

EnergyUnlimited wrote:
dolanbaker wrote:Most markets are simply saturated, they can't sell more cars than people can use, it's as simple as that.

So they will have to continue make cars crapper and crapper each year so they fall apart faster and there is more demand on new.

No. When there are lots of competitors, as there are with cars, a manufacturer can NOT get away with just making pure shiite, and survive over time. Not any more.

Selling crappy cars just hurts a brand over time. That's why Toyota and Honda turned the US Big Three into the little three. Lots of Americans refused to pay for the crappy US quality, when they could get FAR better durability and similar features for a similar price.

Most car manufacturers have finally learned that lesson. Overall, cars are MUCH better. There are differences but except for notable POS companies like Fiat Chrysler on quality, generally the quality differential is much smaller now.

Better to have less business and be competitive than have people refuse to buy your products due to poor relative quality. Kia had to buy itself back into the buyer's choices with ten year warranties on all its cars, and still has long warranties. That's costly. Better to just be competitive re quality.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Downfall of oil consuming infrastructure

Unread postby EdwinSm » Mon 06 Jan 2020, 01:52:57

In the UK they are still a LOT of new cars being sold but
BBC wrote:New car registrations in the UK last year fell to their lowest level since 2013, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).

It was the third consecutive year of decline, and the SMMT expects that trend to continue throughout 2020.

Those expectations are largely due to weak consumer confidence and confusion over clean-air legislation.

The organisation also says the industry is facing serious challenges adapting to new emissions legislation.

It says new rules will require a huge expansion in the use of electric and hybrid cars.

But according to the SMMT's chief executive, Mike Hawes, the fallout from Brexit remains the biggest "clear and present danger" to the sector in the UK.

Figures due out later today are expected to show a total of 2.31 million new cars were registered in 2019, down 2% compared to the year before.

Since reaching a record high of 2.69 million vehicles in 2016, the market has been steadily contracting, in response to what Mr Hawes describes as a "perfect storm" for the industry.

A key factor has been the collapse in demand for diesel-powered cars, which fell by 22% compared to 2018.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-50985412

This is not a DOWNFALL, but a steady contraction of one sector of the "oil consuming infrastructure", and they expect the contraction to continue.
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Re: Downfall of oil consuming infrastructure

Unread postby dolanbaker » Mon 06 Jan 2020, 13:05:50

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
EnergyUnlimited wrote:
dolanbaker wrote:Most markets are simply saturated, they can't sell more cars than people can use, it's as simple as that.

So they will have to continue make cars crapper and crapper each year so they fall apart faster and there is more demand on new.

No. When there are lots of competitors, as there are with cars, a manufacturer can NOT get away with just making pure shiite, and survive over time. Not any more.

Selling crappy cars just hurts a brand over time. That's why Toyota and Honda turned the US Big Three into the little three. Lots of Americans refused to pay for the crappy US quality, when they could get FAR better durability and similar features for a similar price.

Most car manufacturers have finally learned that lesson. Overall, cars are MUCH better. There are differences but except for notable POS companies like Fiat Chrysler on quality, generally the quality differential is much smaller now.

Better to have less business and be competitive than have people refuse to buy your products due to poor relative quality. Kia had to buy itself back into the buyer's choices with ten year warranties on all its cars, and still has long warranties. That's costly. Better to just be competitive re quality.

Lancia Beta, one of the worst rustbuckets in history, even worse than the Dagenham Dustbins, the 1970's was a turning point in car quality when the Japanese cars arrived with novel features like rust resistance, as opposed to life shortening(to drivers as well as vehicles) features. Lancia then went bust as no one would trust them to make a car that lasted more than six years.

These days, they stuff as much as possible into cars to ensure that something expensive fails at around the 10 year mark that makes the car "uneconomic to repair". The newest cars have even more features things to go wrong. We will see them in the scrapyards because the dashboard is blank and the replacement would cost more than the car's worth on the secondhand market.
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Re: Downfall of oil consuming infrastructure

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 13 Jan 2020, 22:46:18

dolanbaker wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
EnergyUnlimited wrote:
dolanbaker wrote:Most markets are simply saturated, they can't sell more cars than people can use, it's as simple as that.

So they will have to continue make cars crapper and crapper each year so they fall apart faster and there is more demand on new.

No. When there are lots of competitors, as there are with cars, a manufacturer can NOT get away with just making pure shiite, and survive over time. Not any more.

Selling crappy cars just hurts a brand over time. That's why Toyota and Honda turned the US Big Three into the little three. Lots of Americans refused to pay for the crappy US quality, when they could get FAR better durability and similar features for a similar price.

Most car manufacturers have finally learned that lesson. Overall, cars are MUCH better. There are differences but except for notable POS companies like Fiat Chrysler on quality, generally the quality differential is much smaller now.

Better to have less business and be competitive than have people refuse to buy your products due to poor relative quality. Kia had to buy itself back into the buyer's choices with ten year warranties on all its cars, and still has long warranties. That's costly. Better to just be competitive re quality.

Lancia Beta, one of the worst rustbuckets in history, even worse than the Dagenham Dustbins, the 1970's was a turning point in car quality when the Japanese cars arrived with novel features like rust resistance, as opposed to life shortening(to drivers as well as vehicles) features. Lancia then went bust as no one would trust them to make a car that lasted more than six years.

These days, they stuff as much as possible into cars to ensure that something expensive fails at around the 10 year mark that makes the car "uneconomic to repair". The newest cars have even more features things to go wrong. We will see them in the scrapyards because the dashboard is blank and the replacement would cost more than the car's worth on the secondhand market.

Well, it's easy to assume that, and yet, overall, credible data from the likes of Consumer Reports shows that ICE's are lasting longer / more miles than ever.

And they stuff lots of stuff into cars because they HAVE to in order to be competitive -- not because of some conspiracy theory.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Downfall of oil consuming infrastructure

Unread postby FLAMEOUT » Tue 14 Jan 2020, 06:52:35

Most modern cars are well built (body wise), have good rust resistance and if serviced correctly (regular oil & filter changes being a must) the engines, drivetrain etc will last very high mileages.

As Dolanbaker suggests, my mechanic says, and my experience dictates - these days most older cars usually die electronically then they become uneconomic (or impossible) to repair / replace certain components. This trend will increase as cars get ever more complex. Who would spend £500+ on a car worth little more than that ?

Cars to me today are disposable items - I usually buy a decent make / model around 8 years old, keep it for a few years and sell it cheap (or even give it away !!). Depreciation is the killer. My cars are mostly depreciated when I buy them. yes I look after them and change the oil / filter annually - always use good oil & filters.

Happy motoring
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