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Saudi Aramco Has a New Perspective on Peak Oil

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Saudi Aramco Has a New Perspective on Peak Oil

Unread postby mmasters » Thu 14 Nov 2019, 13:14:48

"The release of the Saudi Aramco IPO prospectus is putting a fresh spotlight on a big question: the date when global oil demand will peak.

The document released over the weekend includes estimates that demand will grow until around 2035 before leveling off, but that the inflection point could occur by the late 2020s."

https://www.axios.com/saudi-aramco-ipo- ... b2b58.html

So Saudi Aramco is saying 10-15 years....
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Re: Saudi Aramco Has a New Perspective on Peak Oil

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 14 Nov 2019, 18:38:32

The part about global oil demand continuing to increase seems right to me.

There are hundreds of millions of people in China, India, Africa, etc. who are striving to achieve a western style lifestyle, including car ownership. That will continue to put an upward pressure on global oil demand for the foreseeable future.

Image
Rush hour traffic in New Delhi, India

Cheers!
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Re: Saudi Aramco Has a New Perspective on Peak Oil

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 15 Nov 2019, 19:14:41

mmasters wrote:"The release of the Saudi Aramco IPO prospectus is putting a fresh spotlight on a big question: the date when global oil demand will peak.

The document released over the weekend includes estimates that demand will grow until around 2035 before leveling off, but that the inflection point could occur by the late 2020s."

https://www.axios.com/saudi-aramco-ipo- ... b2b58.html

So Saudi Aramco is saying 10-15 years....


FINALLY!!! Maybe a REAL peak oil! Sure...it isn't from scarcity, but still, the congregation can rejoice and sing and pretend that any peak oil reason was good enough for them all along!
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Saudi Aramco Has a New Perspective on Peak Oil

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 15 Nov 2019, 22:21:31

mmasters wrote:"The release of the Saudi Aramco IPO prospectus is putting a fresh spotlight on a big question: the date when global oil demand will peak.

The document released over the weekend includes estimates that demand will grow until around 2035 before leveling off, but that the inflection point could occur by the late 2020s."

https://www.axios.com/saudi-aramco-ipo- ... b2b58.html

So Saudi Aramco is saying 10-15 years....

You did see that the statement was re oil DEMAND, right?

Of course, let's remember that the traditional issue re "peak oil" was always doomers claiming SUPPLY would be too little, leading to economic "collapse", etc.

Now the issue is when demand will peak, which seems to imply that there should be sufficient supply for a long time. Not that we won't need lots of oil for a growing demand for petrochemicals globally for many decades yet.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Saudi Aramco Has a New Perspective on Peak Oil

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 15 Nov 2019, 22:27:59

Plantagenet wrote:Image
Rush hour traffic in New Delhi, India
Cheers!

What I don't understand is how people can see the amount of cars and trucks burning gas and diesel every day and ponder that EVERY GALLON of such fuel burned produces roughly 20 lbs. of CO2, and then claim that humans can't possibly affect the climate, ergo AGW is a hoax. Oh, and think about the sheer magnitude of growth of such cars over the past 6 or so decades, and what that does to the numbers.

Of course, I also don't understand how high school graduates often can't make change if the cash register goes down, because they don't know that subtraction is the necessary operation. So there's that. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Saudi Aramco Has a New Perspective on Peak Oil

Unread postby mmasters » Sat 16 Nov 2019, 00:16:49

AdamB wrote:
mmasters wrote:"The release of the Saudi Aramco IPO prospectus is putting a fresh spotlight on a big question: the date when global oil demand will peak.

The document released over the weekend includes estimates that demand will grow until around 2035 before leveling off, but that the inflection point could occur by the late 2020s."

https://www.axios.com/saudi-aramco-ipo- ... b2b58.html

So Saudi Aramco is saying 10-15 years....


FINALLY!!! Maybe a REAL peak oil! Sure...it isn't from scarcity, but still, the congregation can rejoice and sing and pretend that any peak oil reason was good enough for them all along!

Yes finally, maybe a real answer after all these years and it showed up as an article buried deep in my personalized google news feed lol.
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Re: Saudi Aramco Has a New Perspective on Peak Oil

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 16 Nov 2019, 11:36:35

Outcast_Searcher wrote:What I don't understand is how people can see the amount of cars and trucks burning gas and diesel every day and ponder that EVERY GALLON of such fuel burned produces roughly 20 lbs. of CO2, and then claim that humans can't possibly affect the climate, ergo AGW is a hoax. Oh, and think about the sheer magnitude of growth of such cars over the past 6 or so decades, and what that does to the numbers.


Lest we forget every gallon of gasoline or diesel burnt also produces roughly one gallon of water in the form of water vapor that condenses out as dew or precipitation at some point. This almost balances because as petroleum is extracted from the ground the void spaces usually fill with water. Even if the water is not injected to stimulate production the underlying water table rises to fill the void spaces. In its own weird way burning hydrocarbons releases not just the fossil carbon collected by ancient plants, it also releases the water used by those plants to manufacture sugars and fats.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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