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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 09 Jan 2020, 12:00:19

Armageddon wrote:The Federal Reserve Bank of New York added nearly $100 billion in short-term liquidity to financial markets on Tuesday. The Fed's intervention came in two parts. One was an overnight repurchase agreement operation, or repo, that totaled $63.9 billion. The second was via a 14-day repo that totaled $35 billion.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.co ... 1578409629

If you babble long enough about things you have no clue about, maybe monsters WILL come out from under your bed. :roll:

But probably not.

Again, when the Fed balance sheet gets to a new record, be sure and bleat about it a lot, and we can take a look at an actual meaningful trend, vs. your usual drive by ignorant cherry picking of every negative stat you can find to try to claim things are "crashing" and all is doom. :idea:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 09 Jan 2020, 12:03:30

Armageddon wrote:BREAKING: Bed Bath & Beyond plunges more than 20% after withdrawing fiscal 2019 outlook


They know a shitstorm is coming

Yes, MY GOD. A retail B&M outfit is contracting. You can also cry about Macy's, etc. no doubt. :razz:

When that happens AND internet sales contract at places like, say Amazon and Walmart by 20% over a year, be SURE and get back to us as that would be actual substantive news re the economy.

Of course, perhaps no one will notice amongst your constant blizzard of picked cherries. Crying wolf endlessly has that risk. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 09 Jan 2020, 12:56:26

Fed Injects $83BN In Liquidity As Market's Repo Addiction Getting Worse

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/marke ... -operation
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 09 Jan 2020, 14:32:38

Armageddon wrote:Fed Injects $83BN In Liquidity As Market's Repo Addiction Getting Worse

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/marke ... -operation

If you post the same news multiple times a day does that make the market crash?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 09 Jan 2020, 15:25:25

I don't necessarily subscribe to the simplistic "peak oil caused the credit crisis" narrative but you can't deny the economic stimulus that the fracking boom eventually generated (and still does).


Well, it's not exactly Peak Oil, that happens to be the problem. It is the declining ability of petroleum to deliver energy to the end user which has resulted from petroleum’s depletion. Wold GDP has followed petroleum production almost perfectly for the last century, but so also has the debt. It is the humongous pile of debt that the world has collected that will be what brings the whole thing down. The debt has destroyed the economy's ability to allocate capital, improve productivity, and distribute its output in an efficient manner. Worse still, it has negated the implied benefit, and guarantee of holding financial assets. The debt has created a zombie economy; a litany of companies that don't even have the cash flow to pay the interest on what they owe. It has also created a mountain of "fictitious" money that has flowed to the equity markets.



"A Minsky Moment crisis follows a prolonged period of bullish speculation, which is also associated with high amounts of debt taken on by both retail and institutional investors."

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/minskymoment.asp

It is almost text book.

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It is almost text book.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby marmico » Thu 09 Jan 2020, 18:47:45

Fed Injects $83BN In Liquidity As Market's Repo Addiction Getting Worse


Hardly. The weekly average repos outstanding is up slightly in the last 2 months to $241B for the week ending January 8, 2020.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 10 Jan 2020, 10:36:04

Hardly. The weekly average repos outstanding is up slightly in the last 2 months to $241B for the week ending January 8, 2020.


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https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/marke ... -operation

You can stop the "I'm dumber than a box of rocks routine" anytime. Your stupid act is running out of gas.

The market is still in Greenspan's state of "Irrational exuberance". With no increase in earnings, no increase in revenues, no improvement in forward guidance, and exploding debt the market is still pumping out all time highs on FED money pumping. The next Minsky Moment is already baked into the cake.

To keep the price of oil high enough, to allow producers to continue operating, 5+ mb/d had to be removed, and that happened at the point of a gun. Depletion is continuing onward in its relentless pursue to completion, and the world must now reduce production by 1.3 mb/d per year to keep prices high enough to continue producing. The crash will be one for the history books, and the war to accompanying it will be the first, and last use of energy weapons.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby marmico » Fri 10 Jan 2020, 11:14:49

You can stop the "I'm dumber than a box of rocks routine" anytime. Your stupid act is running out of gas.


Bankrupt Bozo Bedford who constantly recycles his effed up debt charts now wants to play the repo instead of his effed up "vanishing" ETP GIGO charts is an innumerate effing moron. What a charming welcher retard.

The overnight repo was $48.8B on 01/09/20 and the weekend repo was $40.9B on 01/10/20. The overnight drain ("pump out") was $7.9B.

https://apps.newyorkfed.org/markets/aut ... 01/01/2000
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby marmico » Fri 10 Jan 2020, 14:15:23

BAU. Q4:2019 GDP forecasts:

Atlanta Fed 2.3%, New York Fed 1.1%, Blue Chip consensus 2.0%.

https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/nowcast.html
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 10 Jan 2020, 14:47:33

"The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession" - Ben Bernanke Jan 17, 2008


Right before the greatest economic crises since the Great Depression. Lol
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 10 Jan 2020, 14:50:47

Armageddon wrote:"The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession" - Ben Bernanke Jan 17, 2008


Right before the greatest economic crises since the Great Depression. Lol

And you've been yammering total doom for 15 years. And been strictly wrong for the last 11. So what's your point? :lol:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 10 Jan 2020, 14:55:55

marmico wrote:
Fed Injects $83BN In Liquidity As Market's Repo Addiction Getting Worse


Hardly. The weekly average repos outstanding is up slightly in the last 2 months to $241B for the week ending January 8, 2020.

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Actual data means nothing to the doomer sheep here. Just endless bleating.

Thanks for your efforts to post actual Fed, etc. data over time as a counterpoint to the endless nonsense from certain usual suspects.

I'm sure quite a few folks who read threads like this over time appreciate actual credible data and perspective vs. the "all doom all the time" wall of noise (but few facts in context).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 10 Jan 2020, 15:06:00

BofA: QE Is Annualizing A Stunning $1.1 Trillion In The Past 4 Months

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bofa- ... t-4-months
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 10 Jan 2020, 15:10:13

I see the Fed balance sheet decreased about $24 billion as of week ending 1/8.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL

Funny how the doom patrol never reports on any good news in its endless spin efforts. :wink:


For context, we're up under $400 billion from the recent bottom in Sept. 2019. And a similar distance below the long plateau shaped peak from late 2014 through early 2018.

So we've got quite a ways to go yet, before the current operation can CREDIBLY be called the next full blown QE from the bleaters. (And far further before the magnitude is concerning).

Not that they're much on acknowledging credible data if it's not what they want to hear. :roll:

But re the bleating, all sheep should be proud. 8O


https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 10 Jan 2020, 15:28:20

"the Fed will have to cut rates all the way back to zero before the end of 2020" - Rabobank


Are they reading my posts?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 10 Jan 2020, 16:22:31

On January 10, the @Hedgeye nowcast for US Real GDP in 4Q19E ticked down to 0.03%. Their model is anchoring on the sequential improvement in Net Exports as being the critical signal. Ours is anchoring on fresh cycle-lows across every relevant metric of YoY domestic demand growth.


Pay close attention to this. @Hedgeye usually nails these. This is likely exactly what happened in Q4. If the govt doesn't exaggerate the number, and something like this is reported, it's all over for the markets as you'll see CEOs hunker down like they havent in 10 years.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 10 Jan 2020, 16:40:52

Meanwhile in the real world:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/09/clarida ... xible.html

No doubt, this gives the bleaters a good three months to claim the world is ending every week, despite the fact that the funding market is healthy with stable rates, and that inflation remains low.

And of course, instead of collapsing or even responding in alarm, people who actually know economics, like the big investors, are showing NO such alarm re the stock markets, the dollar, etc.

The Federal Open Market Committee at its December meeting kept its benchmark overnight lending rate in a range between 1.5% to 1.75% and projected no moves in 2020, following three rate cuts in the previous year.


But of course, we should believe the doomer blabbersphere that rates are headed to zero and below, since their claims / forecasts are so accurate, year after year after year. :roll:

And of course, we should carefully ignore the obvious contradiction of high inflation AND negative rates predictions by a certain frequent cherry peaker because, as he tells us, he is an economics "expert". 8)
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 10 Jan 2020, 20:29:40

German Industry orders decline 18th months in a row. -6,5% in November YOY


Global depression is getting closer
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 11 Jan 2020, 09:50:28

Consumer spending on #gasoline is historically low (nearing recession levels)

A telling sign
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 11 Jan 2020, 10:52:09

But of course, we should believe the doomer blabbersphere that rates are headed to zero and below, since their claims / forecasts are so accurate, year after year after year.


"blabbersphere". A new technical term has evolved to explain the ongoing deterioration of the economic system. It is the first derivative of FED Speak, and the second derivative of "Polly Wants a Cracker". It is a quantum leap in our understanding of our overly complex, and soon to be defunct economic system. Enlightment has arrived!

Global depression is getting closer


Our present debt based system is nearing its "good until" date. Fossil fuels' declining EROEI, and the implicit structure of a debt based monetary system to constantly build more debt are working in synchronization. Money comes into existence when a debt is assumed. The bank creates it out of thin air; they use the presented collateral for the debt as the asset to balance the creation of their liability; the cash that they created. Only the principle is created, the interest cost on the debt is not, and must come from the creation of subsequent debt formation. The debt therefore must grow continuously, and exponentially. The only solution to this dilemma is an economy that can grow faster than the debt. Fossil fuels declining EROEI, which has resulted from its depletion, has negated that possibility. With no way to grow the economy fast enough to service the new debt being created, we are staring into the abyss.

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