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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 06 Jan 2020, 21:26:18

Cog wrote:Ok so Armageddon is saying to massively short the market right after the November election. Got it. Let's see how yet another doomer prediction works out.




I said ‘right after’?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Cog » Tue 07 Jan 2020, 03:42:59

Armageddon wrote:
Cog wrote:Ok so Armageddon is saying to massively short the market right after the November election. Got it. Let's see how yet another doomer prediction works out.




I said ‘right after’?


The problem with you, is you say nothing useful at all. At least from an investing point of view. What point is achieved to predict a calamity without a time line? I can't make money on this.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 07 Jan 2020, 11:04:43

Markets should be fine for a while. Trump will make sure of it by more rate cuts, QE, stimulus, fake China deals etc. He’ll do whatever it takes until the election. After that, buckle up son.


True, anything that can be done, will be done, but the problem is the "can". We just had another "repo quake" today as repo was again over subscribed. The FED's $120 billion a month fix is again coming up short. The problem is that the debt formation process, which is destroying the currency in circulation, is greater than the central banks can compensate. The entire banking sector will need about $43 trillion in new funds during 2020 to re-balance for the debt being created. That magnitude of required currency injection will put a tremendous load on the banking sector. Some of the big banks are already straining as evidenced from the last repo implosion. With something like $800 trillion in derivative exposure the big banks are sitting right on top of the world's debt bomb. Going long the market until the election is most likely a good play, but it needs to done with a lot (as in 100%) of hedging. The FED may be able to hold it together until after the election, they again, maybe they can't? The size of the Black Swan that will be needed to bring this all down is getting smaller, and smaller by the day. Finding a counter party that will still be solvent after the crash is problematic. PM's buried in the back yard would probably be the safest.

We are at the end of the oil age, and the FED is no longer watching your back. They are watching theirs.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 07 Jan 2020, 16:02:42

Cog wrote:
Armageddon wrote:
Cog wrote:Ok so Armageddon is saying to massively short the market right after the November election. Got it. Let's see how yet another doomer prediction works out.




I said ‘right after’?


The problem with you, is you say nothing useful at all. At least from an investing point of view. What point is achieved to predict a calamity without a time line? I can't make money on this.

And of course, your calls since you started this thread, or for the past 15 years have been, so very very good, so what you say this time will no doubt be very very accurate.

Of course, if you're proven wrong, then as per usual, you can claim you said/meant something else. For a cherry picker, your self proclaimed credibility is amazing. 8)
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 07 Jan 2020, 16:48:52

In 2008 the economy crashed. They printed trillions, lowered interest rates to 0% for a decade, had Q1,2 and 3, had bailouts, buyouts, etc. They kicked the can down the road. Nothing fundamentally changed.

We are now headed back down and they only have 1.5% of FED ammo to work with. This time, it’s not just the US, it’s globally. This time, they are out of road for the can.

It’s not that difficult to see what’s happening.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 07 Jan 2020, 17:46:49

Factory orders cratered
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 07 Jan 2020, 18:26:18

Armageddon wrote:In 2008 the economy crashed. They printed trillions, lowered interest rates to 0% for a decade, had Q1,2 and 3, had bailouts, buyouts, etc. They kicked the can down the road. Nothing fundamentally changed.

We are now headed back down and they only have 1.5% of FED ammo to work with. This time, it’s not just the US, it’s globally. This time, they are out of road for the can.

It’s not that difficult to see what’s happening.

As usual, you don't have a clue of which you speak. The problem and the impact last time were global as well.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 07 Jan 2020, 19:17:42

In 2008 the economy crashed. They printed trillions, lowered interest rates to 0% for a decade, had Q1,2 and 3, had bailouts, buyouts, etc. They kicked the can down the road. Nothing fundamentally changed.

We are now headed back down and they only have 1.5% of FED ammo to work with. This time, it’s not just the US, it’s globally. This time, they are out of road for the can.

It’s not that difficult to see what’s happening.


The central banks told us exactly what was going to happen! They told us that when they started buying a pile of gold. Gold; the antiquated relic. Before the proles realize that the ATMs have an "out of service" sign on them, and that the store shelves are going bare; we get into a war! Now if that's not just humdiggity convenient, nothing is! There is a guy living under a rock in Northern Maine that still hasn't heard about it. The majority of the planet were sent the memo. A war time president is never taken out of office. Disconnect a major oil producer to keep prices up, and then declare martial law to handle the problem when the banking system blows up. This whole show is better choreographed than a Michel Jackson concert!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 07 Jan 2020, 19:41:19

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Armageddon wrote:In 2008 the economy crashed. They printed trillions, lowered interest rates to 0% for a decade, had Q1,2 and 3, had bailouts, buyouts, etc. They kicked the can down the road. Nothing fundamentally changed.

We are now headed back down and they only have 1.5% of FED ammo to work with. This time, it’s not just the US, it’s globally. This time, they are out of road for the can.

It’s not that difficult to see what’s happening.

As usual, you don't have a clue of which you speak. The problem and the impact last time were global as well.




China was booming
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 08 Jan 2020, 01:37:39

Armageddon wrote:In 2008 the economy crashed. They printed trillions, lowered interest rates to 0% for a decade, had Q1,2 and 3, had bailouts, buyouts, etc. They kicked the can down the road. Nothing fundamentally changed.


One thing fundamentally changed. I don't necessarily subscribe to the simplistic "peak oil caused the credit crisis" narrative but you can't deny the economic stimulus that the fracking boom eventually generated (and still does). The economy was recovering with $100 oil but it sure helps more when it's cheaper. There's no national discussion about resource scarcity, no drill-baby-drill chanting, and people shifted back to happy motoring, airline tourism (wink wink to you-know-who), and all that entails (pro for the economy, con for the environment).

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 08 Jan 2020, 09:22:39

Nine States Headed For Recession In Six-Months, Most Since Financial Crisis

President Trump's core campaign promise was to "Make America Great Again," through a revival of the manufacturing complex via launching a trade war against China and debt-fueled tax cuts for corporations. Most of the recovery, well, it was a sugar high, that by the time late 2018 rolled around, economic growth rates started to reverse. 

Manufacturing data on Friday was more confirmation that an industrial recession continues to persist and could be broadening into early 2020. Now the slowdown appears to be spreading to nine states that are teetering on the edge of a recession.

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/nin ... ial-crisis

The other 43 will be following close behind. Once embedded there will be no recovery. The energy does not exist to power a recovery; the oil age is ending. The energy lost per unit of petroleum is now 3.5% per year, and accelerating. This information gives a good view of how fast the situation is deteriorating. Without Black Swans the entire nation will be in a deep recession within two years, and of course the remainder of the world will be coming along with the US.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 08 Jan 2020, 14:24:33

shortonoil wrote:Nine States Headed For Recession In Six-Months, Most Since Financial Crisis

President Trump's core campaign promise was to "Make America Great Again," through a revival of the manufacturing complex via launching a trade war against China and debt-fueled tax cuts for corporations. Most of the recovery, well, it was a sugar high, that by the time late 2018 rolled around, economic growth rates started to reverse. 

Manufacturing data on Friday was more confirmation that an industrial recession continues to persist and could be broadening into early 2020. Now the slowdown appears to be spreading to nine states that are teetering on the edge of a recession.

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/nin ... ial-crisis

The other 43 will be following close behind. Once embedded there will be no recovery. The energy does not exist to power a recovery; the oil age is ending. The energy lost per unit of petroleum is now 3.5% per year, and accelerating. This information gives a good view of how fast the situation is deteriorating. Without Black Swans the entire nation will be in a deep recession within two years, and of course the remainder of the world will be coming along with the US.

Image

Gee, with all the bleating about in-our-face doom, now you're worried about a possible recession in 9 states?

Oh, and consistent with your "great" math skills, when you get 50 - 9 = 43, it's back to grade school for you, vs. writing papers claiming complex relationships / predictions (as your lack of success demonstrates).

Too bad for you that you making the same empty claim re "the energy doesn't exist" literally thousands of times, doesn't make it a bit more true.

Meanwhile in the real world, BAU continues.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 08 Jan 2020, 16:39:04

Last night the Fed. pumped over 100B into the debt market.


BAU continues
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 08 Jan 2020, 17:01:46

Meanwhile, QE4 goes on

*NY FED PURCHASES $7.501B IN TREASURY BILLS

BAU continues
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 08 Jan 2020, 17:27:56

BREAKING: Bed Bath & Beyond plunges more than 20% after withdrawing fiscal 2019 outlook


They know a shitstorm is coming
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby marmico » Thu 09 Jan 2020, 00:25:58

Last night the Fed. pumped over 100B into the debt market.


More innumeracy on display. Last night (well actually morning EST) (January 7, 2020), the FED "pumped out" $7.8B.

The overnight repo declined from $77.9B to $63.9B or negative $14B.

The term repo contracted on December 23, 2019 of $28.8B matured and a new term repo of $35.0B was contracted or positive $6.2B.

Negative $14B plus positive $6.2B equals negative $7.8B.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 09 Jan 2020, 01:17:27

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York added nearly $100 billion in short-term liquidity to financial markets on Tuesday. The Fed's intervention came in two parts. One was an overnight repurchase agreement operation, or repo, that totaled $63.9 billion. The second was via a 14-day repo that totaled $35 billion.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.co ... 1578409629
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 09 Jan 2020, 08:24:23

Kohl's shares tank on dismal holiday sales results, lowered outlook


What’s coming is going to make 2008 look like a day at Disney world
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 09 Jan 2020, 08:39:59

Too bad for you that you making the same empty claim re "the energy doesn't exist" literally thousands of times, doesn't make it a bit more true.

Meanwhile in the real world, BAU continues.


Using the point of a gun to keep the price of oil high enough to prevent the shut down of the industry is now BAU? If Venezuela, and Iran had not been taken off line by brute force they would now be giving away a barrel of oil with every box of Cracker Jacks. So BAU is the same as it has always been; keeping as many of the sheep unconscious for as long as possible. In your case it is working perfectly; just shut your eyes; and you won't feel a thing.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 09 Jan 2020, 11:57:10

shortonoil wrote:
Too bad for you that you making the same empty claim re "the energy doesn't exist" literally thousands of times, doesn't make it a bit more true.

Meanwhile in the real world, BAU continues.


Using the point of a gun to keep the price of oil high enough to prevent the shut down of the industry is now BAU? If Venezuela, and Iran had not been taken off line by brute force they would now be giving away a barrel of oil with every box of Cracker Jacks. So BAU is the same as it has always been; keeping as many of the sheep unconscious for as long as possible. In your case it is working perfectly; just shut your eyes; and you won't feel a thing.

Once you're down to babbling paranoia re conspiracy theories and endlessly citing the likes of zerohedge, to excuse you being wrong wrong wrong, endlessly, time to give it up and get a life.

BAU is business as usual -- the long term trend of more crude production (by all technologies), despite all the denial by your ilk. Just because YOUR ranting claims conspiracy theories re "the point of a gun to keep the price of oil high enough to prevent the shutdown of the industry", doesn't make it remotely true.

Hell, that wouldn't fly with the vast majority of the residents of an insane asylum. But keep trying -- nothing else has worked for your theories. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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